Great to see mock draft scenarios with variety! To me, Bijan is the most intriguing fit at #5. I like how you called out the cap/salary implications associated with picking him so high… although I see Waldron’s system exposing Bijan as “more than just a RB” and come 4 years from now, in the heat of contract negotiations, the narrative of his value will be similar to what we saw with unique game changers like Debo Samuel.
Kiper Jr. and friends will roast Pete, John and even sweet Jody for selecting anyone besides Anthony Richardson… and that makes me even more confident in Bijan.
Weird, I was wondering why you didn’t link something to your assertion that sdb said, “Seahawks fans who disagree with that point by saying they’re either stupid or ignorant.” Word search on the guarantee article came up empty on both stupid and ignorant.
Joey Porter Jr is the best player I have seen in college! So I would be very happy to get JPJ wherever in the draft! (I do not think it will happen)
Update: Rob Staton is already starting to back pedal his ridiculous stance on Carter. He is now admitting it is a possibility but doesn't think it is likely due to the reasons he states. This is a reasonable stance. Why did he ever decide to go scorched earth from the start?
If Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson are there at 5, I believe the Hawks would be thrilled to draft one of those two. Or, make a strong move up to get CJ Stroud if he falls past Houston (and if AZ will trade with us).
The dicey situation is if Young, Stroud, Anderson and Richardson are all gone and we are sitting at 5. Carter seems like the highest-upside pick, but the Seahawks went with high character players in last year's draft and it served them well, can't see them abandoning that. Tyree Wilson doesn't excite me. Levis? Maybe, but again not exciting. This is where trading down might make sense, if we can get a 2024 first round pick from a team that has promise to struggle this season as part of the return. Of course, I got banned from posting on a certain other website for proposing such an outrageous idea.
I’m sorry to hear about Twitter’s new policy towards Substack, and probably other sites like Mastodon. I followed you when you migrated to Substack, but have since found several other writers that I follow regularly here, so thanks for the introduction. I discovered several of my Substack crushes first on Twitter, but much prefer reading them or Substack because it’s so much better for long form essays. I hope you and my other faves are able to keep increasing your readership despite Musk’s tantrum!
We still have a couple weeks to go but I do think we’ve beat the Jalen Carter horse to death. I agree with your perspective on Carter and that this draft lacks depth of “top 10 talent”.
Our team has a lot of young talent and we will have even more young talent after the draft (potential for 10 draft picks!). With that context in mind:
- I think there’s a > 50% chance we trade up on day 2-3 and wind up with 7-8 picks.
- there is a reason PCJS have brought back veteran leaders on the D and that is to teach the young guys how to be pros. As long as Carter is “coachable” I’m confident guys like Bobby and Diggs can show him the way.
On a separate note, the time has come for Seaside Joe to decide if trying to participate in the sewer that is Twitter is advisable. Musk clearly wants to hurt Substack.
Why does no one ever mock a QB to the Lions? The Lions are in a very similar situation as the Seahawks. They have the 6th and the 18th pick? They also need to improve the D line to make the next step. Goff like Geno was a Pro Bowl QB last year but before that everyone assumed the Lions will move on after 2022. Goff is 29. Geno is 32 but has fewer miles on his body. Goff has 2 years left with 25 million cap hits each year. Geno’s Cap hits are 10 million and 31 million. The Lions can walk away with little dead money though after next year whereas it would cost the Seahawks 17 million. If Richardson and Levis are the second comings of Jackson and Allen, why are the Lions so disinterested in getting a dynamic cheap QB?
I absolutely think that HOU could take Anderson at 2nd overall because he's by far and away the best player in this class, however I expect them to go QB for a reason you've touched on: they might not get a chance to draft this highly next year. I know the Texans are light on talent but can you really feel certain that, post-draft, they'll be worse than both Indy and Tennessee next season? Worse than the Cards, Raiders and 3/4 of the NFC South? I don't, so if I'm the Texans GM, I've got Stroud/Young on the board, I'm not looking a gifthorse in the mouth.
I have been considering lately that I am just as much a fan of Pete as I am of the Seahawks. I love his attitude and zest for life and the job of coaching the Seahawks. For that reason I am willing to roll with the decision that he and John make with the #5 pick even if it isn’t who I would like them to pick—Carter—because Carter is (to me) the obvious choice given the moves made in FA.
Ever wonder what the "Games Above Replacement" for Pete would be? Having a consistent, positive influence on a franchise is critical - I would guess that Pete gave 2-5 games last year over an average coach.
Pete has been criticized for in-game management (use of time outs, challenges, etc) but most of those decisions are made by people in Pete’s ear.
It’s Pete’s football philosophy that results in positive results over time and he does get the most out of his roster. There is no doubt Pete is an above-average coach and certainly the best Seattle has ever had.
Given the over/under for the Seahawks last season was 5 iirc, finishing with 9 would give Pete a GAR of 5 😊
Yep. You know I saw recently analyst are trying to figure out a games above replacement stat for NFL players - eg how much does an elite player translate into the number of wins as opposed to having a league average player. QB of course dominate this statistic because having an elite QB can add 3,4,5 games over a replacement player . The problem in a salary capped league is that when elite QBs are consuming more and more of the teams resources the number of the remaining players who are below the replacement cost increases offsetting the QB value. As your chart pointed everyone but the Chiefs this year have had a balance of an above replacement QB on a contract that did not force the team to rely on too many below replacement placement players at critical positions.
Why I bring this up here, is that I saw the games above replacement in context with Carter. The argument against Carter is he is not worth the risk versus the potential reward of a long shot QB based on their college play and I don't think that is true. The analyst had Carter as the highest rated non-qb for projected games above replacement at .81. I don't know how that stat was arrived at but it feels accurate. His ability to dominate the interior of the field impacts a game far more than fans appreciate. Add on the extremely low bust rate for top DT, which translates as the ability to project the prospects potential based on their game film, and you have the surest pick in the draft, which is why I think he started as the number 1 prospect.
For the Seahawks I believe that the games above replacement stat actually translates into 2 or more additional wins. Last year I felt like our interior defensive line played at least 2 game below replacement level players. Think about the games against Tampa, Carolina, Los Vegas, we were better than those teams from top to bottom of the roster but we still lost. What those teams had in common was they all had a better than average interior offensive line as a whole and where they had a weak player we could not take advantage of it. They beat us because they dominated the center of the field on offense and that dictated how the games went. The Seahawks certainly thought our DTs were not getting it done because they go rid of all of them.
If Carter plays to his prospect grade he is a analytical no brainer for the Seahawks.
The caveat is that if a QB that the Seahawks believe is worth the risk unexpectedly drops the Seahawks would take him and I just don't see that happening. For the Seahawks to take the player they have to project him as their starter in 2024 . I say that because of Trey Lance and Jimmy G. Trey Lances picked number 3 in 2021 guaranteed contract is basically the same as the number 5 pick in 2023. Lance's cap hit in year 2 was 7.5 million and Geno's cap hit if still on the team in 2024 is 31.2 million without incentives for combined cap cost of 38.5, which is a pretty hefty hit per Kenneth's look at costs of QBs against the salary cap. If the Seahawks cut Geno or trade Geno prior to 2024 league year the dead cap hit is 17 million which translates to a combined QB cost of 24.5 million under this scenario they would also have to sign a back up so lets say total cost of 27 million and some change. If the Seahawks wait until 2025 to replace Geno with their 2023 quarterback drafted at number 5 then they take a dead cap hit on Geno of 7.8 million and take a cap hit of 10 million for their new QB plus new back up so say 20 million and that is okay I suppose but the Seahawks have used up half of their savings and have 1 year to make a decision. What the numbers say is they can have a QB taken at 5 sit for a year but no more, which is why the 9ers pushed Trey Lance on to the field to start 2022, when he was pretty clearly the third best QB on their team.
So when looking at Richardson and Levis ask yourself this question are they clearly better prospects than Trey Lance? Will just one year in the offense make them better than league average in 2024, and capable of winning it all in 2025. If one is not confident of those things then the numbers say it is a bad bet to take them and the risk is not worth the reward.
I think you are dead on on options 1 and 2. Option 3 could also be Robinson or JSN an argument can be made for each one of them. Each will be perceived as a luxury pick but If the Seahawks sea the player as an instant difference maker I think they will go for it.
I think a CB pick would not be made out of need or desperation, but could happen if the first four picks are Young, Stroud, Anderson & Carter and we have no trade down options. In that case, a CB might be the best player available on our board and at a position of appropriate draft value. I don't think it's crazy, even if we have bigger holes to fill.
I think you're probably right about Carter. Given the options that are there, he would seem to make the most sense. Not a pick without risk but that's the draft.
I'd be thrilled if we traded down with Washington and landed their 2024 first rounder. Again, not without risk but I think it could be a smart move.
I'm also with you in being pretty close to certain that Young will be gone and that Seattle probably grabs him if he's not. Same for Anderson. Maybe his ceiling isn't quite as high as Carter's but his floor seems considerably higher -- subject to the reality that there are no guarantees.
I'd not be heartbroken if Seattle chose Richardson or Robinson but neither is my preferred choice. The tandem of Walker and Robinson seems off the charts great but five is awfully high for a guy more likely to get injured than land a big second contract. At five, I think you've got to shoot for a guy who's got a decent chance at a longer career.
I can't wait for the post-Twitter world (and it is coming)!
Getting a little tired of the "Bijan's just a RB therefore shouldn't be paid, shouldn't be drafted, becuase we all know RB's arn'y human and don't deserve basic respect". If Bijan was as good a TE, WR, DE, any other position as he is as good a RB he'd be the #1 consenus pick. That's how all the scouts, all the people with knowledge talk about him as a RB, as a generational (because we've all lost what that term means and we can now use it once or twice a year) talent akin to Saquon, akin to McCaffrey, akin to the very best of the very best at his position.
You take a player like that put him on a run-first team like the Seahawks, it's a match made in heaven! You get fun schemeing him, Kw3, Dk, NoE and our TE's into wild sets of plays that will be nightmarish for defences to match. And you can build a ton of variability into that to keep it fresh over 17+ games. You take so much pressure of Geno to make magic happen (because he's not that kind of player) and lean on his processing and read ability (which is one of his best traits). You let the OLine get nasty, get phsycial. Give the team an Offence-First Brutal Dirty Gritty Nasty identity. Legion of Boom, coming straight at you like a train from the offence. Put a focus on drafting more fighters and ballhawks on defence and this team becomes one that may not win 14 games a year, but my word will it be entertaining and one not a single team wants to encounter in December or January.
Because it should not surprise anyone at all if the Texans take Anderson and the Cardinals take Carter (smart play for the Caridinals is to take just a couple of picks from the Colts in a trade then grab Carter at #4). And it should not surprise anyone if there isn't a rush for the #5 pick with teams happy to wait on AR & Levis. Bijan, it just makes so much sense, as soon as you look at him beyond just the "oh, no-one will take a RB at #5", because he is not "just a RB".
!0 years ago, if we were in the same draft position as this year, Pete would have traded up to #1 to get him. That's how fast the value of RB's has fallen and I hate that the consensus seems to be that they aren't worth the money on a first round pick. Especially since most RB"s don't last long enough to get a chance to earn that huge 2nd contract because they get used up and worn down before they get a chance. Seems to me that RB's should have the greatest 1st RD value based on that alone.
Based on team construction I wouldn't take him at 5 this year. But should we end up with say #12 in a trade (come-on Houston you know you want to do it) then he is firmly in play if still on the board. It would be very difficult to pass on Bijan at 12 when he is clearly the BPA at that time by a HUGE margin.
You take Carter. For all my pushing Bijan at #5, it's always come on the basis Young, Stroud, Anderson and Carter go 1-4. I'd rather have those four if they are available, it just don't think they will. If Carter is that good, and our Front Office think they can "fix" him, then the Cardinals will see the same and make sure to get him ahead of us as a divisional rival.
"But we should trade down?!" We should, if someone gives us a fair offer. However, who's there at #5 we don't want that another team will pay up for? If AR is that highly regarded we will take him and stash him for a year behind Geno. Levis? I don't think any team is realistically seeing him as a Top5 pick. So trade down isn't that likely to me, once the draft gets to the Raiders/Falcons we might see a team get antsy and move for the other two QBs. We're stuck in no-mans land and should be using the #5 from Denver as a Luxury pick, because it is a luxury pick. #20 will be enough to get a good IDL run stopper, exactly as if we didn't have the #5 from Denver. It's a win-win for the 'Hawks.
If Anderson and Carter are gone by 5, take BPA - it’s Robinson, simple as that. They would still a high-end Nose Tackle to anchor the 3 - 4 even if we bring back Woods, so make sure Smith is taken at 20 (or move up a little to get him). Getting Robinson and Smith in the first would be pants off sexy time.
Spot on Johnny. Smith at #20 after Bijan #5 would be an ideal selection! And at ##37 or #52 you can target a second interiot DLine player like Dexter/Ika/Benton/Pickens as well as another Defence option like Simpson/Sanders/Campbell/To'oTo'o/Ade Ade/Tuipulotu. A ton, just so many, good defence options from 20 to 52 that taking Bijan #5 does not hurt the 'Hawks at all.
And think of the "VALUE" you get from drafting said players later in the draft. I might have a panic attack if they take Bijan and Smith in the first but the value you get on guys that have question marks later on is outstanding.
I sympathize with your sentiment but I think you're underselling how crazy it would be to take Bijan at #5. He would immediately be in the top 10 cap hits for 2023 RBs. I think there's not caring how other people value your priorities, and then then there's blowing the water out of the NFL meta. It doesn't mean the Hawks couldn't do it; but, I would think they'd take their once in a generation chance at a top #5 pick in a more "normal" manner and target the premium positions.
You're right about the rookie RB contract. I'm just going to work out a defense for my own benefit, not saying that this is what the Seahawks should do.
5th overall pick gets a 4-year, $34 million contract. The AAV of $8.5 puts him 11th in RB salary, but 12th is James Conner at $7 million. Essentially, there's the "don't touch this" tier of McCaffrey and Kamara ($15m+) and then there's the "Pro Bowl" tier of like $10-$12m for eight guys, including 3 of those guys are on the franchise tag. So we're really looking at it almost like a $6 million 2023 rookie salary is that he's still a couple steps below the franchist tag players, but just as far above Ken Walker's ($2m) salary.
Notably, Austin Ekeler is set to have a $7.75m cap hit and is holding out for a new contract. RB is such a strange position because most people agree that before he gets into the NFL, Robinson is already a better RB than Ekeler.
Which is then the other side of it, which is that unlike almost any other prospect in this draft, there's a good chance Robinson is a top-tier player in Week 1 of this season. His most frequent comp of Saquon Barkley led the NFL in yards as a rookie. At which point, we get into the "Ok, injuries" side of the debate. The question of "What if Barkley was healthy from 2019-2021" will always be a "what if?" unfortunately. We can't assume that Robinson will be healthy. We also can't assume he will get hurt. Barkley had 352 touches as a rookie. Obviously Pete's dream is that if he had Bijan, he'd get 150-250 touches as a rookie, sharing the backfield. Walker had 255 touches as a rookie.
He may have also been more fresh in December and January that most rookies because Walker barely played in the first five games. It was convenient for him to have a fairly normal workload, especially because he didn't have much of a workload for two years at Wake Forest.
Bijan Robinson saw his carries increase from 86 to 195 to 258 at Texas.
So on one hand, you might get Robinson for four years and $34 million and he gives you 4 really great seasons and then let's just say for arguments sake that he gets hurt. If he doesn't, then the 5th year option becomes nice, but most RBs have not gotten the fifth year option. So let's be conservative and say he doesn't. What if Bijan "only" gives the Seahawks four great years for $34 million.
Conversely, say the Seahawks draft Tyree Wilson because "if he becomes a good defensive lineman, he will give the Seahawks a good surplus value." Same 4 year, $34 million contract with the 5th year option. An $8.5 million AAV ranks 29th among edge rusher. Clearly an advantage over RB! But conveniently, Chase Young has an AAV of $8.6 million. I ask: Has Chase Young been a bargain? In fact, Young has been a financial anchor and he's not worth $2 million based on the last two years. What if Tyree Wilson takes 3 years to become a quality player? Then you've gone right from "he's only $8.5m AAV" to having a breakout season in year 4 to okay, now you have to give him a contract extension.
So you are definitely right that if you nail an edge or a QB or a WR with your pick, you get a surplus value in the first 3-4 years that is much greater than RB. However, I think what gets lost is that while those positions are boom or bust, RB is probably the safest position to draft in the first round. Almost all first round RB picks in the last 10-12 years have been good players, the problem becomes the injuries and yes, the surplus value. However, Josh Jacobs is a good player! Most players drafted in the 20-32 range, they can't even get on the field. I see a lot of LJ Collier picks in the late first round. DeAndre Baker types. Isaiah Wynn.
If Bijan Robinson is the pick, which he won't be, but if he is, I will say the same thing I said about Walker: Let's just enjoy the ride. We're here to be entertained, not to do accounting.
Wholeheartedly agree SJ! He’s not only a ferocious gifted runner, but it needs to be taken into account that Robinson is also an excellent receiver too. You could just line him up outside, get the ball to him quick and watch him run through some motherfucker’s face again and again and again and again and again, yessir.
His highlight reel is just lurid.The more I think about him, the more it makes sense. Plus, hahaha! Up yours, Cowboys.
Interesting take, but anyone who saw the Hawks run defense last year knows that a game wrecking DT is a must. However if both Anderson and Carter are gone and they are not sold on Wilson at 5, why not trade the pick for a young. proven veteran DT and a 1st round pick that would get them Robinson?
That, I think would be the best for the D and the O!
Walker and Robinson in the same backfield would be a D coordinator's worst night mare !
Ad a good slot receiver and the nightmare turns into A Night.of the Living Dead!
Great to see mock draft scenarios with variety! To me, Bijan is the most intriguing fit at #5. I like how you called out the cap/salary implications associated with picking him so high… although I see Waldron’s system exposing Bijan as “more than just a RB” and come 4 years from now, in the heat of contract negotiations, the narrative of his value will be similar to what we saw with unique game changers like Debo Samuel.
Kiper Jr. and friends will roast Pete, John and even sweet Jody for selecting anyone besides Anthony Richardson… and that makes me even more confident in Bijan.
Weird, I was wondering why you didn’t link something to your assertion that sdb said, “Seahawks fans who disagree with that point by saying they’re either stupid or ignorant.” Word search on the guarantee article came up empty on both stupid and ignorant.
Do better.
Joey Porter Jr is the best player I have seen in college! So I would be very happy to get JPJ wherever in the draft! (I do not think it will happen)
Update: Rob Staton is already starting to back pedal his ridiculous stance on Carter. He is now admitting it is a possibility but doesn't think it is likely due to the reasons he states. This is a reasonable stance. Why did he ever decide to go scorched earth from the start?
If Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson are there at 5, I believe the Hawks would be thrilled to draft one of those two. Or, make a strong move up to get CJ Stroud if he falls past Houston (and if AZ will trade with us).
The dicey situation is if Young, Stroud, Anderson and Richardson are all gone and we are sitting at 5. Carter seems like the highest-upside pick, but the Seahawks went with high character players in last year's draft and it served them well, can't see them abandoning that. Tyree Wilson doesn't excite me. Levis? Maybe, but again not exciting. This is where trading down might make sense, if we can get a 2024 first round pick from a team that has promise to struggle this season as part of the return. Of course, I got banned from posting on a certain other website for proposing such an outrageous idea.
I’m sorry to hear about Twitter’s new policy towards Substack, and probably other sites like Mastodon. I followed you when you migrated to Substack, but have since found several other writers that I follow regularly here, so thanks for the introduction. I discovered several of my Substack crushes first on Twitter, but much prefer reading them or Substack because it’s so much better for long form essays. I hope you and my other faves are able to keep increasing your readership despite Musk’s tantrum!
We still have a couple weeks to go but I do think we’ve beat the Jalen Carter horse to death. I agree with your perspective on Carter and that this draft lacks depth of “top 10 talent”.
Our team has a lot of young talent and we will have even more young talent after the draft (potential for 10 draft picks!). With that context in mind:
- I think there’s a > 50% chance we trade up on day 2-3 and wind up with 7-8 picks.
- there is a reason PCJS have brought back veteran leaders on the D and that is to teach the young guys how to be pros. As long as Carter is “coachable” I’m confident guys like Bobby and Diggs can show him the way.
On a separate note, the time has come for Seaside Joe to decide if trying to participate in the sewer that is Twitter is advisable. Musk clearly wants to hurt Substack.
Why does no one ever mock a QB to the Lions? The Lions are in a very similar situation as the Seahawks. They have the 6th and the 18th pick? They also need to improve the D line to make the next step. Goff like Geno was a Pro Bowl QB last year but before that everyone assumed the Lions will move on after 2022. Goff is 29. Geno is 32 but has fewer miles on his body. Goff has 2 years left with 25 million cap hits each year. Geno’s Cap hits are 10 million and 31 million. The Lions can walk away with little dead money though after next year whereas it would cost the Seahawks 17 million. If Richardson and Levis are the second comings of Jackson and Allen, why are the Lions so disinterested in getting a dynamic cheap QB?
Because Goff finally figured it out!
I absolutely think that HOU could take Anderson at 2nd overall because he's by far and away the best player in this class, however I expect them to go QB for a reason you've touched on: they might not get a chance to draft this highly next year. I know the Texans are light on talent but can you really feel certain that, post-draft, they'll be worse than both Indy and Tennessee next season? Worse than the Cards, Raiders and 3/4 of the NFC South? I don't, so if I'm the Texans GM, I've got Stroud/Young on the board, I'm not looking a gifthorse in the mouth.
I guess that what it comes down to is this:
* If Carter is available, do you draft him?
* If the first four picks are QB-QB-EDGE-DL and there’s no trade down to be had, what do you do?
The answers being the same.
I could be convinced that Tyree Wilson is a legit option., I’m just resistant to that.
I get harder and harder to convince daily.
I have been considering lately that I am just as much a fan of Pete as I am of the Seahawks. I love his attitude and zest for life and the job of coaching the Seahawks. For that reason I am willing to roll with the decision that he and John make with the #5 pick even if it isn’t who I would like them to pick—Carter—because Carter is (to me) the obvious choice given the moves made in FA.
Ever wonder what the "Games Above Replacement" for Pete would be? Having a consistent, positive influence on a franchise is critical - I would guess that Pete gave 2-5 games last year over an average coach.
Pete has been criticized for in-game management (use of time outs, challenges, etc) but most of those decisions are made by people in Pete’s ear.
It’s Pete’s football philosophy that results in positive results over time and he does get the most out of his roster. There is no doubt Pete is an above-average coach and certainly the best Seattle has ever had.
Given the over/under for the Seahawks last season was 5 iirc, finishing with 9 would give Pete a GAR of 5 😊
Yep. You know I saw recently analyst are trying to figure out a games above replacement stat for NFL players - eg how much does an elite player translate into the number of wins as opposed to having a league average player. QB of course dominate this statistic because having an elite QB can add 3,4,5 games over a replacement player . The problem in a salary capped league is that when elite QBs are consuming more and more of the teams resources the number of the remaining players who are below the replacement cost increases offsetting the QB value. As your chart pointed everyone but the Chiefs this year have had a balance of an above replacement QB on a contract that did not force the team to rely on too many below replacement placement players at critical positions.
Why I bring this up here, is that I saw the games above replacement in context with Carter. The argument against Carter is he is not worth the risk versus the potential reward of a long shot QB based on their college play and I don't think that is true. The analyst had Carter as the highest rated non-qb for projected games above replacement at .81. I don't know how that stat was arrived at but it feels accurate. His ability to dominate the interior of the field impacts a game far more than fans appreciate. Add on the extremely low bust rate for top DT, which translates as the ability to project the prospects potential based on their game film, and you have the surest pick in the draft, which is why I think he started as the number 1 prospect.
For the Seahawks I believe that the games above replacement stat actually translates into 2 or more additional wins. Last year I felt like our interior defensive line played at least 2 game below replacement level players. Think about the games against Tampa, Carolina, Los Vegas, we were better than those teams from top to bottom of the roster but we still lost. What those teams had in common was they all had a better than average interior offensive line as a whole and where they had a weak player we could not take advantage of it. They beat us because they dominated the center of the field on offense and that dictated how the games went. The Seahawks certainly thought our DTs were not getting it done because they go rid of all of them.
If Carter plays to his prospect grade he is a analytical no brainer for the Seahawks.
The caveat is that if a QB that the Seahawks believe is worth the risk unexpectedly drops the Seahawks would take him and I just don't see that happening. For the Seahawks to take the player they have to project him as their starter in 2024 . I say that because of Trey Lance and Jimmy G. Trey Lances picked number 3 in 2021 guaranteed contract is basically the same as the number 5 pick in 2023. Lance's cap hit in year 2 was 7.5 million and Geno's cap hit if still on the team in 2024 is 31.2 million without incentives for combined cap cost of 38.5, which is a pretty hefty hit per Kenneth's look at costs of QBs against the salary cap. If the Seahawks cut Geno or trade Geno prior to 2024 league year the dead cap hit is 17 million which translates to a combined QB cost of 24.5 million under this scenario they would also have to sign a back up so lets say total cost of 27 million and some change. If the Seahawks wait until 2025 to replace Geno with their 2023 quarterback drafted at number 5 then they take a dead cap hit on Geno of 7.8 million and take a cap hit of 10 million for their new QB plus new back up so say 20 million and that is okay I suppose but the Seahawks have used up half of their savings and have 1 year to make a decision. What the numbers say is they can have a QB taken at 5 sit for a year but no more, which is why the 9ers pushed Trey Lance on to the field to start 2022, when he was pretty clearly the third best QB on their team.
So when looking at Richardson and Levis ask yourself this question are they clearly better prospects than Trey Lance? Will just one year in the offense make them better than league average in 2024, and capable of winning it all in 2025. If one is not confident of those things then the numbers say it is a bad bet to take them and the risk is not worth the reward.
Plus, if you believe in Geno and you know that you control his contract through 2025, why draft a QB at all?
In my completely uninformed opinion I could see these as the likeliest outcome for the Hawks at #5:
Draft Anderson/Carter
Trade down
Draft CB
I think you are dead on on options 1 and 2. Option 3 could also be Robinson or JSN an argument can be made for each one of them. Each will be perceived as a luxury pick but If the Seahawks sea the player as an instant difference maker I think they will go for it.
I think a CB pick would not be made out of need or desperation, but could happen if the first four picks are Young, Stroud, Anderson & Carter and we have no trade down options. In that case, a CB might be the best player available on our board and at a position of appropriate draft value. I don't think it's crazy, even if we have bigger holes to fill.
That’s what I keep saying.
I think you're probably right about Carter. Given the options that are there, he would seem to make the most sense. Not a pick without risk but that's the draft.
I'd be thrilled if we traded down with Washington and landed their 2024 first rounder. Again, not without risk but I think it could be a smart move.
I'm also with you in being pretty close to certain that Young will be gone and that Seattle probably grabs him if he's not. Same for Anderson. Maybe his ceiling isn't quite as high as Carter's but his floor seems considerably higher -- subject to the reality that there are no guarantees.
I'd not be heartbroken if Seattle chose Richardson or Robinson but neither is my preferred choice. The tandem of Walker and Robinson seems off the charts great but five is awfully high for a guy more likely to get injured than land a big second contract. At five, I think you've got to shoot for a guy who's got a decent chance at a longer career.
Unfortunately the draft is" like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get"
I remember that last year the Talking Heads had Malik Willis in the top 5 and Ridder in the top 10!
What happened ?
So much for mock drafts done by mental midgets.
Same as it ever was...
I can't wait for the post-Twitter world (and it is coming)!
Getting a little tired of the "Bijan's just a RB therefore shouldn't be paid, shouldn't be drafted, becuase we all know RB's arn'y human and don't deserve basic respect". If Bijan was as good a TE, WR, DE, any other position as he is as good a RB he'd be the #1 consenus pick. That's how all the scouts, all the people with knowledge talk about him as a RB, as a generational (because we've all lost what that term means and we can now use it once or twice a year) talent akin to Saquon, akin to McCaffrey, akin to the very best of the very best at his position.
You take a player like that put him on a run-first team like the Seahawks, it's a match made in heaven! You get fun schemeing him, Kw3, Dk, NoE and our TE's into wild sets of plays that will be nightmarish for defences to match. And you can build a ton of variability into that to keep it fresh over 17+ games. You take so much pressure of Geno to make magic happen (because he's not that kind of player) and lean on his processing and read ability (which is one of his best traits). You let the OLine get nasty, get phsycial. Give the team an Offence-First Brutal Dirty Gritty Nasty identity. Legion of Boom, coming straight at you like a train from the offence. Put a focus on drafting more fighters and ballhawks on defence and this team becomes one that may not win 14 games a year, but my word will it be entertaining and one not a single team wants to encounter in December or January.
Because it should not surprise anyone at all if the Texans take Anderson and the Cardinals take Carter (smart play for the Caridinals is to take just a couple of picks from the Colts in a trade then grab Carter at #4). And it should not surprise anyone if there isn't a rush for the #5 pick with teams happy to wait on AR & Levis. Bijan, it just makes so much sense, as soon as you look at him beyond just the "oh, no-one will take a RB at #5", because he is not "just a RB".
!0 years ago, if we were in the same draft position as this year, Pete would have traded up to #1 to get him. That's how fast the value of RB's has fallen and I hate that the consensus seems to be that they aren't worth the money on a first round pick. Especially since most RB"s don't last long enough to get a chance to earn that huge 2nd contract because they get used up and worn down before they get a chance. Seems to me that RB's should have the greatest 1st RD value based on that alone.
Based on team construction I wouldn't take him at 5 this year. But should we end up with say #12 in a trade (come-on Houston you know you want to do it) then he is firmly in play if still on the board. It would be very difficult to pass on Bijan at 12 when he is clearly the BPA at that time by a HUGE margin.
I need to write some Bijan content this weekend.
Yes please!
Damn good plan B and it fits with the Pete identity - you stop the run and you run the ball. My question is what if both are there?
You take Carter. For all my pushing Bijan at #5, it's always come on the basis Young, Stroud, Anderson and Carter go 1-4. I'd rather have those four if they are available, it just don't think they will. If Carter is that good, and our Front Office think they can "fix" him, then the Cardinals will see the same and make sure to get him ahead of us as a divisional rival.
"But we should trade down?!" We should, if someone gives us a fair offer. However, who's there at #5 we don't want that another team will pay up for? If AR is that highly regarded we will take him and stash him for a year behind Geno. Levis? I don't think any team is realistically seeing him as a Top5 pick. So trade down isn't that likely to me, once the draft gets to the Raiders/Falcons we might see a team get antsy and move for the other two QBs. We're stuck in no-mans land and should be using the #5 from Denver as a Luxury pick, because it is a luxury pick. #20 will be enough to get a good IDL run stopper, exactly as if we didn't have the #5 from Denver. It's a win-win for the 'Hawks.
If Anderson and Carter are gone by 5, take BPA - it’s Robinson, simple as that. They would still a high-end Nose Tackle to anchor the 3 - 4 even if we bring back Woods, so make sure Smith is taken at 20 (or move up a little to get him). Getting Robinson and Smith in the first would be pants off sexy time.
Spot on Johnny. Smith at #20 after Bijan #5 would be an ideal selection! And at ##37 or #52 you can target a second interiot DLine player like Dexter/Ika/Benton/Pickens as well as another Defence option like Simpson/Sanders/Campbell/To'oTo'o/Ade Ade/Tuipulotu. A ton, just so many, good defence options from 20 to 52 that taking Bijan #5 does not hurt the 'Hawks at all.
And think of the "VALUE" you get from drafting said players later in the draft. I might have a panic attack if they take Bijan and Smith in the first but the value you get on guys that have question marks later on is outstanding.
I sympathize with your sentiment but I think you're underselling how crazy it would be to take Bijan at #5. He would immediately be in the top 10 cap hits for 2023 RBs. I think there's not caring how other people value your priorities, and then then there's blowing the water out of the NFL meta. It doesn't mean the Hawks couldn't do it; but, I would think they'd take their once in a generation chance at a top #5 pick in a more "normal" manner and target the premium positions.
You're right about the rookie RB contract. I'm just going to work out a defense for my own benefit, not saying that this is what the Seahawks should do.
5th overall pick gets a 4-year, $34 million contract. The AAV of $8.5 puts him 11th in RB salary, but 12th is James Conner at $7 million. Essentially, there's the "don't touch this" tier of McCaffrey and Kamara ($15m+) and then there's the "Pro Bowl" tier of like $10-$12m for eight guys, including 3 of those guys are on the franchise tag. So we're really looking at it almost like a $6 million 2023 rookie salary is that he's still a couple steps below the franchist tag players, but just as far above Ken Walker's ($2m) salary.
Notably, Austin Ekeler is set to have a $7.75m cap hit and is holding out for a new contract. RB is such a strange position because most people agree that before he gets into the NFL, Robinson is already a better RB than Ekeler.
Which is then the other side of it, which is that unlike almost any other prospect in this draft, there's a good chance Robinson is a top-tier player in Week 1 of this season. His most frequent comp of Saquon Barkley led the NFL in yards as a rookie. At which point, we get into the "Ok, injuries" side of the debate. The question of "What if Barkley was healthy from 2019-2021" will always be a "what if?" unfortunately. We can't assume that Robinson will be healthy. We also can't assume he will get hurt. Barkley had 352 touches as a rookie. Obviously Pete's dream is that if he had Bijan, he'd get 150-250 touches as a rookie, sharing the backfield. Walker had 255 touches as a rookie.
He may have also been more fresh in December and January that most rookies because Walker barely played in the first five games. It was convenient for him to have a fairly normal workload, especially because he didn't have much of a workload for two years at Wake Forest.
Bijan Robinson saw his carries increase from 86 to 195 to 258 at Texas.
So on one hand, you might get Robinson for four years and $34 million and he gives you 4 really great seasons and then let's just say for arguments sake that he gets hurt. If he doesn't, then the 5th year option becomes nice, but most RBs have not gotten the fifth year option. So let's be conservative and say he doesn't. What if Bijan "only" gives the Seahawks four great years for $34 million.
Conversely, say the Seahawks draft Tyree Wilson because "if he becomes a good defensive lineman, he will give the Seahawks a good surplus value." Same 4 year, $34 million contract with the 5th year option. An $8.5 million AAV ranks 29th among edge rusher. Clearly an advantage over RB! But conveniently, Chase Young has an AAV of $8.6 million. I ask: Has Chase Young been a bargain? In fact, Young has been a financial anchor and he's not worth $2 million based on the last two years. What if Tyree Wilson takes 3 years to become a quality player? Then you've gone right from "he's only $8.5m AAV" to having a breakout season in year 4 to okay, now you have to give him a contract extension.
So you are definitely right that if you nail an edge or a QB or a WR with your pick, you get a surplus value in the first 3-4 years that is much greater than RB. However, I think what gets lost is that while those positions are boom or bust, RB is probably the safest position to draft in the first round. Almost all first round RB picks in the last 10-12 years have been good players, the problem becomes the injuries and yes, the surplus value. However, Josh Jacobs is a good player! Most players drafted in the 20-32 range, they can't even get on the field. I see a lot of LJ Collier picks in the late first round. DeAndre Baker types. Isaiah Wynn.
If Bijan Robinson is the pick, which he won't be, but if he is, I will say the same thing I said about Walker: Let's just enjoy the ride. We're here to be entertained, not to do accounting.
Wholeheartedly agree SJ! He’s not only a ferocious gifted runner, but it needs to be taken into account that Robinson is also an excellent receiver too. You could just line him up outside, get the ball to him quick and watch him run through some motherfucker’s face again and again and again and again and again, yessir.
His highlight reel is just lurid.The more I think about him, the more it makes sense. Plus, hahaha! Up yours, Cowboys.
Interesting take, but anyone who saw the Hawks run defense last year knows that a game wrecking DT is a must. However if both Anderson and Carter are gone and they are not sold on Wilson at 5, why not trade the pick for a young. proven veteran DT and a 1st round pick that would get them Robinson?
That, I think would be the best for the D and the O!
Walker and Robinson in the same backfield would be a D coordinator's worst night mare !
Ad a good slot receiver and the nightmare turns into A Night.of the Living Dead!
I like Mingo for that slot position on Day 2.