It seems that on the eve of the 2023 NFL Draft, Rob Staton of SeahawksDraftBlog has finally decided to turncoat and agree with the majority that Jalen Carter is a better prospect than Anthony Richardson. There you have it. In Staton’s final mock draft before Thursday
I get that, but my point is that Rob is saying what HE thinks these players should rate in the draft. He isn't changing his mind about his judgments now. He's just saying that with his ear to the ground it appears other teams may not agree with him. If he truly were saying "I watch a lot of tape, and my judgments are superior to many who run NFL teams," he might be right from time to time, but he also might be wrong at least as many times. And in any event the proof of the pudding in this realm is ultimately on-field performance, not draft position.
Like any blogger, I presume, he gets tired of the expression of uninformed opinion, and he has a fairly unpleasant way of dealing with it when the mood strikes him. But whatever, it's his blog. If he wants to cull it, in effect, so most contributors don't piss him off, that's his prerogative. Your methods are friendlier, probably because you start out that way, and also probably because you care about growing your blog audience with a focus he may not share.
I like both blogs, for different reasons. It needn't be an either/or proposition, or a game of one-upmanship.
What is up with Levis going to the Colts at #4 in every single mock draft you'll see now? I don't understand why he is so perfect for Indianapolis, but Stroud and Richardson are not. I get that he's more ready to start right away than Richardson, but what's wrong with Stroud? Couldn't you also imagine them picking Witherspoon or Gonzalez? Whatever, we'll see in a few more hours.
It either says the Colts have leaks or that someone is making shit up. The Seahawks don't leak, and that is the smartest thing to be. No one suggests they know what the Hawks will do. One can guess based upon available information and that is it. If every other team is as leasproof as the Hawks then there should be plenty of surprises in a few hours.
Yeah, I thought that was interesting too, Omar. I don't know if that was sparked by a copy/paste or from something that's being said. At the end of the day, I have to trust that nobody outside of Pete and John know what they want to happen tonight.
All the mock drafts have made me aware of the top prospects and I can appreciate the difficult challenges that each team faces, but, once a team makes their choice I wish the various commentators would try to understand why it’s a great pick for the teams. At that point I wouldn’t give 2 shits about how it agrees or disagrees with somebody’s mock draft. For me the Hawks production on defense last season was awful and I’d like them to draft defense/ defense with their first to picks, however, if they go offense/ offense, I’m ALL IN!
Drafting a second (or third) round QB - based on where they are at now - with the 5th over all pick because he runs fast and throws it far is not my cup of tea either. If we pick Richardson with the 20th, or even the 37th pick, it would be a bit disappointing. I still would Much prefer getting a player that will get us to what I believe is a Superbowl contending year in 2024.
Top shelf O-lines get teams closer, Top shelf D-lines get teams even more so. Top shelf playmakers for certain are needed. Fill the roster's holes before taking a luxury pick.
Kansas City was already good enough and their luxury pick worked Great for them. Green Bay was a recent two-time Superbowl contestant with a Championship trophy...sure, take Aaron Rodgers - at the 24th pick. Mahomes was at #10. Pretty bold but they were a complete team already.
The issue I have with top of the draft QBs is they go too soon to bad teams that are desperate. They are forced to play too soon, and mostly suck as the result. Then those same teams give a king's ransom to get a well-seasoned, but past their prime QB.
The Seattle Seahawks have done this right once before. It worked to perfection until calling for a pass from the 1-yard line. It was good for two Superbowl appearances that time. I trust that it will again.
The culmination of the 2024 Season will have lots of Action Green in the Superdome stands. Provided we continue to create, and capitalize on our opportunities.
If you read Kam Chancellor's article on The Players Tribune it sounds almost like Russ changed the play; he mentions how on the sidelines they all expected Marshawn to get the ball and Cable slamming his headset to the ground when the play is starting if I remember correctly.
How is a QB a luxury pick? Geno is, essentially, a bridge QB and definitely not a QB that PC has any faith in leading to a championship. His contract is perfectly designed for the bridge role. Drew Lock just found out that no other team wanted him so he resigned with us for 1yr, $4MM - not exactly a contract a team gives to a QBoTF. QB is a need.
Kansas City did the same thing when the bridged from Smith to Mahomes. It was a perfect way to acclimate Mahomes to the NFL without making him start right away. Seattle would be attempting to mimic this approach - they wouldn't be the so-called desperate bad team forcing their rookie QB to play too soon, as you say.
Hoping for another 3rd round Russell Wilson to come around is a fool's errand. It doesn't happen often and it's silly and a waste of time to wait for it to happen again. No - they should use their draft resources to pick the QB that JS believes can become a good NFL QB.
I think we can all agree QB is a need and that Geno is not a long term option. It possible but not likely Lock would be a long term option given what we’ve seen from his film.
I think the debate is how do you address the QB need. We’ve talked a lot about the QBs in this draft, and I’m not sold on drafting a QB in the first round based on the options available. I’d rather prioritize other skill positions and have those needs addressed first.
The benefit is that you get see if Geno can progress this year or if his performance from the second half of the season is his ceiling.
Then you go get a QB through the draft next year or acquire a veteran “rental” via trade as the “missing piece” to a championship team.
Excited to see what happens in the draft! Go Hawks!
Thanks! I agree with your points and also have faith in PCJS so if the QB they love is there then I’ll trust their evaluation. I’m definitely not qualified evaluate prospects, and even the “professionals “ get it wrong.
I don’t like the idea of trading for a veteran rental either. You essentially mortgage the future for short terms potential gain. But it is an option...
Assuming that QB is the “missing piece” There’s other options if they choose to target QB next year. You could trade picks this year for a 2024 1st rd pick. You could go all in and trade future draft capital to get the guy you love (on the premise we trust JCPS).
Good post. Everything depends on how JS evaluates this group of QBs. If he loves one of them, i'm all for him doing whatever it takes to go get him. Personally, by my amateur eyes, I think there are 4 good options in this draft and the Seahawks are setup pretty well to let a draftee sit for a year and learn.
I think the argument to 'go get a QB through the draft next year' is not totally viable unless they really suck this year and end up with another top 5 pick. I don't see that happening which means they'd probably need to trade up in the draft and spend a bunch of resources. Yuck. And trading picks for a veteran rental is even worse. It's expensive in trade and in salary cap. Double yuck.
We have draft capital this year - use it for the most important position in football (again, if an option exists per JS's eval).
The other point i want to make is that seattle has a lot of draft capital to fill the holes in this team. Spending #5 on a QB that won't start until '24 does not stop them from fixing the defense or getting a WR3 or RB2. It's a deep draft and they have the picks to do all that stuff.
I mean it's just a serviceable veteran QB who can mentor a young rookie as he nears retirement. It's pretty simple and happens frequently. I'm not saying it works 100% of the time. The Bears have been bad at QB for a long time but they haven't really ever had a bridge QB. Maybe that's been the problem!
The whole concept of a "Bridge QB" is revisionist history. Our Right wing friends would say it's Woke. In order to have a bridge there has to be a landing spot on the other end. Da Bears have never had "the next guy" and I don't think KC did either until they lucked into Mahomes in '17. Just having a serviceable QB doesn't mean you have a bridge.
KC drafted Mahomes with the intention of him starting one day. In order to achieve that, they used Smith as a bridge to get there. I'm not sure what the confusion is.
Because they had had Smith since 2013, would have drafted Mahomes under any circumstances, and likely would have sat him as long as the alternative was marginally better than Nathan Peterman. There’s no strategy at work--“bridge QB” is just a made-up media term that applies only in retrospect.
BTW, whatever this is, is the exception not the rule. For the most part, teams don’t draft QBs in the first round to sit them.
But no team knows in advance whether it’s going to get a young rookie. You can’t plan on the serviceable vet being a bridge.
When the Chiefs signed Alex Smith in 2013, they didn’t know that they were going to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017. They signed Smith to be their QB, not to be a bridge.
NFL teams plan for the future. When KC drafted Mahomes they planned for Smith to bridge the gap until Mahomes was ready. Smith wasn't a dumpster fire but he wasn't going to get them to a super bowl (hence the need to draft Mahomes. Also, similar issue with Geno Smith - not bad, but not going to take us to the promise land. Also, both are 'Smith's!) Just like Seattle could plan for Geno to bridge the gap until Richardson, or whomever, is ready. In fact, I think Geno's contract is laid out exactly for this scenario. I don't really understand your point.
we disagree. no biggie. we each have good points. I really like drafting a QB, this year even. Just Not before the should be based on what difference they can make for the team in the next two years. QBs have been drafted Way too early based on hopes and projections, not film.
I would Love to have Hendon Hooker at 37. That would be value. That dude can spin it and is Accurate already. He does not have to learn to be good.
I guess the real question will be whether or not JS believes in any of the prospects still on the board at #5. I wouldn't be shocked if one or four QBs are taken before our pick. I'm rooting for 4, but I don't have faith in Richardson or Levis and go back and forth on Stroud. I'm assuming here that it's a given that the Panthers are taking Young first overall.
Looking forward to your mock. The last three months, you have made me think and helped informed my opinions.
As the draft begins. I go back to the thoughts I had watching the Seahawks down the stretch. It is really hard to win when 1) the interior defensive line is getting blocked on every play; and 2) the offense has to claw its way down the field because it just was not able to generate a consistent running game or much after the catch. Hopefully the selections tonight move the Seahawks forward in changing those things. Because when they do - the Seahawks will again not just be a playoff team they will be a contender. Let the season of hope begin.
Thank you! I'll just be posting my final decisions for the Seahawks at 5 and 20, although I've only really focused on 5...20 is so difficult, other than to say I believe the premise that they want to trade down.
20 is tough because in reality there are no more than 18 players on the Seahawks board with first round grades. Ask yourself 3 questions. 1) Who are the best 18 players
2) Which of any of those players are likely to be there 3) if none of those are there which player would you run to the podium to draft at 37 - draft him at 20 because the second round just started
Looking forward to your mock. The last three months, you have made me think and helped informed my opinions.
As the draft begins. I go back to the thoughts I had watching the Seahawks down the stretch. It is really hard to win when 1) the interior defensive line is getting blocked on every play; and 2) the offense has to claw its way down the field because it just was not able to generate a consistent running game or much after the catch. Hopefully the selections tonight move the Seahawks forward in changing those things. Because when they do - the Seahawks will again not just be a playoff team they will be a contender. Let the season of hope begin.
If one is in the business of draft prognostication, then prognosticate one must. I don't tend to think in terms of people getting their egos wrapped up in being right, though human insecurities being what they are, of course people do. Just part and parcel of the human condition. Try as we might to be independent, we're not. In tribal societies the surest way to die was to go it alone, so of course everyone feels vulnerable and insecure. Of course everyone wants to feel vindicated and to lead.
Fortunately these things tend to blow over. We've seen Station's propensity to ban people who disagree so he's placed his insecurities on display. Still, I'm hopeful that when the dust settles there are no hard feelings. After all, we all root for the same team. And Kenneth and Rob are in the same gig.
For me, it would mean more connected. In other words, whatever the outcome, you and Rob would have a beer together. Or at least you'd offer to buy a beer. His response is about his willingness to expand.
If Dan Marino played today, he’d complete 75% of his passes and might never get sacked. He got the ball out faster than any QB I’ve ever seen—in comparison, Tom Brady looked like he was throwing underwater. BION, his draft status fell because of rumors that he smoked pot. In a radio interview a few years back, Joe Montana wouldn’t say that Brady was the GOAT because of Marino.
I just don't want us to be boring! We were boring from 2017-2021 and yes we made the playoffs a lot, but we were never really threatening for the big kielbasa. We have #5 by luck as a luxury. Swing for the fences, do something exciting at #5 - which is either Carter or Richardson. The closer we get to tonight the more i want that swing to be Richardson :o I like Carter a lot, but we can get a nice centre piece to the DLine elsewhere in this draft, I really can't see a QB with quite the potential this year (or in next years class, AR is just that much of a unicorn).
Then take #20 and be boring. Trade it down for a '24 1st/2nd and pick a nice DLine piece in Mazi Smith/Ade Ade/McDonald/Van Ness. Just please, don't be boring with the gift that is #5! I'd rather end up being 0-17 for the next five years having at least put it all on the line, rather than feeling safe at 8-9/9-8 on repeat. It's fine to be a 'Hawks fan, a Vikings fan, a Titans fan. I'd rather be the Bengals fan, the Rams fan, even the 49ers fan, taking the hardship for the best times.
Ahhhh, i'm just so f*cking excited for this draft. Awesome for the 'Hawks. Awesome for the NFL with it being so open and unknown. AAAAHHHHHH!!!!!
I just don't see the potential in AR. I would think he would of had some flashes of brilliance by now, but he really hasn't. I really don't want to pay some guy $35M to sit on the bench for two years.
Why take Richardson at 5 if he's likely to drop into at least the second half of the first round? Way too many question marks in my opinion to be worth that kind of draft capital.
I think that's stretching it a bit. I think your buddy (and the love is palpable) is saying that HE would not under any circumstance draft Carter as high as the 5th pick, but he is conceding that SOME teams, or at least specifically Detroit at #6, could. Separately, I think he is also saying that he would be happy drafting AR at #5, but the word on the NFL street is that AR might also be available at 20, so why not get some extra picks by trading down and still have a decent chance to get AR at 20?
That's a fair distance from saying that Rob now concedes that Carter is a better prospect than AR. Instead, he's saying only that while HE does not believe that to be the case at all (and that the Hawks are likely to agree with him, given Carter's perceived lack of fire in the belly or whatever), at least some other teams sound like they might.
As far as who ends up being "right," the only "right" that really matters will be decided on the field, over the next few seasons. The rest is just draft-style rosterbation. If Carter is drafted high and craters as a NFL player, for example, that's a very strange "win" for anybody who insisted he was worth a high pick, and the very same thing is true of Richardson..
The part about "AR being better than Carter" is a little ribbing, to be sure. But it is also undeniable that he has changed from AR-15 and Stroud as locks to go in the top-4 (which would make them fantastic prospects) to putting them where they are now. And from Carter being a horrible character nightmare who should at least drop as far as Jeffery Simmons to going in the top-5. Rob never expected that he would have to do this mock with Carter at 5 and AR at 10, Stroud at 11, he thought soon everyone would agree with him. And then for the fans who disagreed with him about Carter (who he had going into the 20s only a few weeks ago), he said they were stupid and uninformed and "didn't do 1% of the research that I do".
If Rob can call Seahawks fans stupid, I can surely tease him.
100% agree with this. Rob has laid out his well thought-out reasons over and over again for why he thinks Carter to Seattle is not happening. Maybe he's right! Or maybe he's wrong! Who knows? We might never know! And it really doesn't matter. Frankly, I think this little "competition" between Seaside and Rob Staton that Rob doesn't even know about, or at least has never acknowledged on his blog, is lame. Just worry about your own stuff.
I like Kenneth's thoughts on Witherspoon, and I wouldn't be upset with that pick, as long as they can get a QB solution at some point.
He doesn't acknowledge it on his blog because he doesn't want people checking out Seaside Joe and maybe finding out that the work here doesn't suck. As Chuck said, Rob knows. I talk about this stuff because of how other people treat Seahawks fans.
As I said in the post though, I respect people like you who don't care for that part of the content. Believe it or not, the overwhelming majority of responses I get on this is, "I'm glad someone finally said it". It's not just Rob, a lot of people in this industry treat their fans like dogshit.
Agree about sports media industry - and it's the reason I have a very difficult time listening to sports radio - the hosts of every single one of them that i've ever listened to in the many cities that i've lived in ALWAYS discounts anything a caller says on the air. The hosts act like they know better than everyone else, as if their job talking about sports makes them some kind of expert. Now that I think about it, I suppose this is the pattern that Rob has fallen into. I never thought about it like that but it makes total sense.
Either way, i appreciate both yours and his blogs immensely. Especially this time of year.
I appreciate it! And I consume his content too! I wouldn't talk about him if I wasn't following, and I don't see why every follower has to...follow.
Seaside Joe is open for criticism. And better yet, I listen to it. I try to be a man of the people and not place myself above the readers. What I saw a lot on twitter was people who have large followings would treat replies differently based on if they were coming from someone else who had a large following and/or a blue check vs if they didn't have a large following. "How much better am I than this person? Better check how many people they're following before I bash them to my followers on twitter for daring to disagree with me."
I don't subscribe to treating people that way. And I see this from anywhere to people who have 100k followers like Ben Baldwin or people with much fewer like Corbin Smith. You don't see people with large followings bash each other, they treat each other with respect, less they "piss off the wrong person". Not one person in the media will question another. But for me, the power of fan-funded places like Seaside Joe, another voice in the media can speak out.
Yes, Rob has felt the NEED to repeat his arguments ad nauseum. He hasn't actually changed his arguments but he has repeated them with near identical phrasing and wording more than three times. Why? What is the point? He had his say. Once was enough. Twice for confirmation that his opinion hasn't changed, I guess, but after that it felt more like propaganda. Like he absolutely NEEDS to convince his readers, and he shuts anyone down that disagrees with him. What is that about and why would anyone put up with that is what amazes me.
If you criticized him for his unnecessary repetitions he would delete your post. I don't exactly understand the dynamics between Rob and Ken entirely, but I believe Ken is honest about his feelings. Rob never addresses criticism of how he runs his blog. Never addresses his authoritarian tendencies. People on his blog genuflect to Rob at almost every opportunity. It is an odd dynamic, and it seems to me undeniable.
Oh, Rob knows. He's replied to plenty of articles posted by Ken on Twitter. These guys go back like 15 years, having worked together both in writing and podcasts. In the early days of Seaside Joe, SDB was promoted frequently. I think Rob's reactions to his own readers is what started it all. I get that it comes across one-sided but I think it's in part the treatment that lots of us have gotten on Rob's blog/Twitter that has fueled Joe to quote his Tweets and so forth. Frankly, Rob has a bad habit of belittling people who disagree with him. He censors his comment sections of thoughtful, well-intentioned replies that are said nicely. I have no doubt that Rob puts in the hours watching film; but the certainty in his convictions is a bit strange. It's not as if any of us know what is going to happen on draft day.
I agree you about Rob's comments section - I've definitely been on the receiving end of this somewhat. Not belittled or dismissed, but just not really willing to see it any other way. It's definitely the downside of SDB. But i like his writing and reasoning and I find Ken's pieces about "who's going to be right?" a strange. I mean, who cares?
You are being exceedingly kind to Mr. Staton! (This is a good thing in my book) He's often very arrogant and insistent in his beliefs (until he isn't) with small margin for disagreement (hence why he bans so many people who disagree with him). But he does spend a lot of time covering the Seahawks and I enjoy reading his blog and getting his perspectives. I just can't read the comments and his responses to the comments any more.
I get that, but my point is that Rob is saying what HE thinks these players should rate in the draft. He isn't changing his mind about his judgments now. He's just saying that with his ear to the ground it appears other teams may not agree with him. If he truly were saying "I watch a lot of tape, and my judgments are superior to many who run NFL teams," he might be right from time to time, but he also might be wrong at least as many times. And in any event the proof of the pudding in this realm is ultimately on-field performance, not draft position.
Like any blogger, I presume, he gets tired of the expression of uninformed opinion, and he has a fairly unpleasant way of dealing with it when the mood strikes him. But whatever, it's his blog. If he wants to cull it, in effect, so most contributors don't piss him off, that's his prerogative. Your methods are friendlier, probably because you start out that way, and also probably because you care about growing your blog audience with a focus he may not share.
I like both blogs, for different reasons. It needn't be an either/or proposition, or a game of one-upmanship.
ok, my prediction. First, no trades.
First pick, CB Devon
Second, best WR/TE available
Third, Center
Forth, DL
Bank it. LOL.
You're on a roll so far! Much better than your Will Levis projections to every team that isn't us! ;-)
What is up with Levis going to the Colts at #4 in every single mock draft you'll see now? I don't understand why he is so perfect for Indianapolis, but Stroud and Richardson are not. I get that he's more ready to start right away than Richardson, but what's wrong with Stroud? Couldn't you also imagine them picking Witherspoon or Gonzalez? Whatever, we'll see in a few more hours.
It either says the Colts have leaks or that someone is making shit up. The Seahawks don't leak, and that is the smartest thing to be. No one suggests they know what the Hawks will do. One can guess based upon available information and that is it. If every other team is as leasproof as the Hawks then there should be plenty of surprises in a few hours.
You definitely don't want a leaky colt in your house!
Evan Silva, Daniel Jeremiah, AND Peter Schrager all have Seahawks going Carter at #5 and AR at #20.
I find that very interesting...
Yeah, I thought that was interesting too, Omar. I don't know if that was sparked by a copy/paste or from something that's being said. At the end of the day, I have to trust that nobody outside of Pete and John know what they want to happen tonight.
Well, Schrager has them trading up for AR at 12. But still interesting.
Wish guessing is my guess.
All the mock drafts have made me aware of the top prospects and I can appreciate the difficult challenges that each team faces, but, once a team makes their choice I wish the various commentators would try to understand why it’s a great pick for the teams. At that point I wouldn’t give 2 shits about how it agrees or disagrees with somebody’s mock draft. For me the Hawks production on defense last season was awful and I’d like them to draft defense/ defense with their first to picks, however, if they go offense/ offense, I’m ALL IN!
Goal - Superbowl Champions 2024 season.
Drafting a second (or third) round QB - based on where they are at now - with the 5th over all pick because he runs fast and throws it far is not my cup of tea either. If we pick Richardson with the 20th, or even the 37th pick, it would be a bit disappointing. I still would Much prefer getting a player that will get us to what I believe is a Superbowl contending year in 2024.
Top shelf O-lines get teams closer, Top shelf D-lines get teams even more so. Top shelf playmakers for certain are needed. Fill the roster's holes before taking a luxury pick.
Kansas City was already good enough and their luxury pick worked Great for them. Green Bay was a recent two-time Superbowl contestant with a Championship trophy...sure, take Aaron Rodgers - at the 24th pick. Mahomes was at #10. Pretty bold but they were a complete team already.
The issue I have with top of the draft QBs is they go too soon to bad teams that are desperate. They are forced to play too soon, and mostly suck as the result. Then those same teams give a king's ransom to get a well-seasoned, but past their prime QB.
The Seattle Seahawks have done this right once before. It worked to perfection until calling for a pass from the 1-yard line. It was good for two Superbowl appearances that time. I trust that it will again.
The culmination of the 2024 Season will have lots of Action Green in the Superdome stands. Provided we continue to create, and capitalize on our opportunities.
"It worked to perfection until calling for a pass from the 1-yard line."
It really wasn't a bad call, but the result was a total disaster. It might even have been RW's fault - just throw it away and try again next play.
If you read Kam Chancellor's article on The Players Tribune it sounds almost like Russ changed the play; he mentions how on the sidelines they all expected Marshawn to get the ball and Cable slamming his headset to the ground when the play is starting if I remember correctly.
How is a QB a luxury pick? Geno is, essentially, a bridge QB and definitely not a QB that PC has any faith in leading to a championship. His contract is perfectly designed for the bridge role. Drew Lock just found out that no other team wanted him so he resigned with us for 1yr, $4MM - not exactly a contract a team gives to a QBoTF. QB is a need.
Kansas City did the same thing when the bridged from Smith to Mahomes. It was a perfect way to acclimate Mahomes to the NFL without making him start right away. Seattle would be attempting to mimic this approach - they wouldn't be the so-called desperate bad team forcing their rookie QB to play too soon, as you say.
Hoping for another 3rd round Russell Wilson to come around is a fool's errand. It doesn't happen often and it's silly and a waste of time to wait for it to happen again. No - they should use their draft resources to pick the QB that JS believes can become a good NFL QB.
I think we can all agree QB is a need and that Geno is not a long term option. It possible but not likely Lock would be a long term option given what we’ve seen from his film.
I think the debate is how do you address the QB need. We’ve talked a lot about the QBs in this draft, and I’m not sold on drafting a QB in the first round based on the options available. I’d rather prioritize other skill positions and have those needs addressed first.
The benefit is that you get see if Geno can progress this year or if his performance from the second half of the season is his ceiling.
Then you go get a QB through the draft next year or acquire a veteran “rental” via trade as the “missing piece” to a championship team.
Excited to see what happens in the draft! Go Hawks!
Thanks! I agree with your points and also have faith in PCJS so if the QB they love is there then I’ll trust their evaluation. I’m definitely not qualified evaluate prospects, and even the “professionals “ get it wrong.
I don’t like the idea of trading for a veteran rental either. You essentially mortgage the future for short terms potential gain. But it is an option...
Assuming that QB is the “missing piece” There’s other options if they choose to target QB next year. You could trade picks this year for a 2024 1st rd pick. You could go all in and trade future draft capital to get the guy you love (on the premise we trust JCPS).
Good post. Everything depends on how JS evaluates this group of QBs. If he loves one of them, i'm all for him doing whatever it takes to go get him. Personally, by my amateur eyes, I think there are 4 good options in this draft and the Seahawks are setup pretty well to let a draftee sit for a year and learn.
I think the argument to 'go get a QB through the draft next year' is not totally viable unless they really suck this year and end up with another top 5 pick. I don't see that happening which means they'd probably need to trade up in the draft and spend a bunch of resources. Yuck. And trading picks for a veteran rental is even worse. It's expensive in trade and in salary cap. Double yuck.
We have draft capital this year - use it for the most important position in football (again, if an option exists per JS's eval).
The other point i want to make is that seattle has a lot of draft capital to fill the holes in this team. Spending #5 on a QB that won't start until '24 does not stop them from fixing the defense or getting a WR3 or RB2. It's a deep draft and they have the picks to do all that stuff.
I question whether there is any such thing as a bridge QB. If there is, the Bears have been building a bridge since 1947.
I mean it's just a serviceable veteran QB who can mentor a young rookie as he nears retirement. It's pretty simple and happens frequently. I'm not saying it works 100% of the time. The Bears have been bad at QB for a long time but they haven't really ever had a bridge QB. Maybe that's been the problem!
The whole concept of a "Bridge QB" is revisionist history. Our Right wing friends would say it's Woke. In order to have a bridge there has to be a landing spot on the other end. Da Bears have never had "the next guy" and I don't think KC did either until they lucked into Mahomes in '17. Just having a serviceable QB doesn't mean you have a bridge.
KC drafted Mahomes with the intention of him starting one day. In order to achieve that, they used Smith as a bridge to get there. I'm not sure what the confusion is.
Because they had had Smith since 2013, would have drafted Mahomes under any circumstances, and likely would have sat him as long as the alternative was marginally better than Nathan Peterman. There’s no strategy at work--“bridge QB” is just a made-up media term that applies only in retrospect.
BTW, whatever this is, is the exception not the rule. For the most part, teams don’t draft QBs in the first round to sit them.
But no team knows in advance whether it’s going to get a young rookie. You can’t plan on the serviceable vet being a bridge.
When the Chiefs signed Alex Smith in 2013, they didn’t know that they were going to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017. They signed Smith to be their QB, not to be a bridge.
NFL teams plan for the future. When KC drafted Mahomes they planned for Smith to bridge the gap until Mahomes was ready. Smith wasn't a dumpster fire but he wasn't going to get them to a super bowl (hence the need to draft Mahomes. Also, similar issue with Geno Smith - not bad, but not going to take us to the promise land. Also, both are 'Smith's!) Just like Seattle could plan for Geno to bridge the gap until Richardson, or whomever, is ready. In fact, I think Geno's contract is laid out exactly for this scenario. I don't really understand your point.
we disagree. no biggie. we each have good points. I really like drafting a QB, this year even. Just Not before the should be based on what difference they can make for the team in the next two years. QBs have been drafted Way too early based on hopes and projections, not film.
I would Love to have Hendon Hooker at 37. That would be value. That dude can spin it and is Accurate already. He does not have to learn to be good.
I guess the real question will be whether or not JS believes in any of the prospects still on the board at #5. I wouldn't be shocked if one or four QBs are taken before our pick. I'm rooting for 4, but I don't have faith in Richardson or Levis and go back and forth on Stroud. I'm assuming here that it's a given that the Panthers are taking Young first overall.
"6.198 - “A Boy Named Sue” and “Player of Games” were the two clues.
Answer: LB Bumper Pool, Arkansas"
Yeah, announcers usually do chuckle as they say Bumper Pool's name when they start a broadcast .
He Does have game. Whoo, PIGS!
I thought for sure you would guess it if I had done something like "Wild Hogs" or etc, Charley!
Kenneth,
Looking forward to your mock. The last three months, you have made me think and helped informed my opinions.
As the draft begins. I go back to the thoughts I had watching the Seahawks down the stretch. It is really hard to win when 1) the interior defensive line is getting blocked on every play; and 2) the offense has to claw its way down the field because it just was not able to generate a consistent running game or much after the catch. Hopefully the selections tonight move the Seahawks forward in changing those things. Because when they do - the Seahawks will again not just be a playoff team they will be a contender. Let the season of hope begin.
Thank you! I'll just be posting my final decisions for the Seahawks at 5 and 20, although I've only really focused on 5...20 is so difficult, other than to say I believe the premise that they want to trade down.
20 is tough because in reality there are no more than 18 players on the Seahawks board with first round grades. Ask yourself 3 questions. 1) Who are the best 18 players
2) Which of any of those players are likely to be there 3) if none of those are there which player would you run to the podium to draft at 37 - draft him at 20 because the second round just started
Kenneth,
Looking forward to your mock. The last three months, you have made me think and helped informed my opinions.
As the draft begins. I go back to the thoughts I had watching the Seahawks down the stretch. It is really hard to win when 1) the interior defensive line is getting blocked on every play; and 2) the offense has to claw its way down the field because it just was not able to generate a consistent running game or much after the catch. Hopefully the selections tonight move the Seahawks forward in changing those things. Because when they do - the Seahawks will again not just be a playoff team they will be a contender. Let the season of hope begin.
If one is in the business of draft prognostication, then prognosticate one must. I don't tend to think in terms of people getting their egos wrapped up in being right, though human insecurities being what they are, of course people do. Just part and parcel of the human condition. Try as we might to be independent, we're not. In tribal societies the surest way to die was to go it alone, so of course everyone feels vulnerable and insecure. Of course everyone wants to feel vindicated and to lead.
Fortunately these things tend to blow over. We've seen Station's propensity to ban people who disagree so he's placed his insecurities on display. Still, I'm hopeful that when the dust settles there are no hard feelings. After all, we all root for the same team. And Kenneth and Rob are in the same gig.
I hope we all come out better people for it!
What does that mean for you, Kenneth?
For me, it would mean more connected. In other words, whatever the outcome, you and Rob would have a beer together. Or at least you'd offer to buy a beer. His response is about his willingness to expand.
To me Stanton’s mock came across as his fantasy for the Seahawks.
Seems to be the same fantasy on repeat.
If Dan Marino played today, he’d complete 75% of his passes and might never get sacked. He got the ball out faster than any QB I’ve ever seen—in comparison, Tom Brady looked like he was throwing underwater. BION, his draft status fell because of rumors that he smoked pot. In a radio interview a few years back, Joe Montana wouldn’t say that Brady was the GOAT because of Marino.
Can't believe the Steelers passed on him.
For the tragic Gabe Rivera.
I just don't want us to be boring! We were boring from 2017-2021 and yes we made the playoffs a lot, but we were never really threatening for the big kielbasa. We have #5 by luck as a luxury. Swing for the fences, do something exciting at #5 - which is either Carter or Richardson. The closer we get to tonight the more i want that swing to be Richardson :o I like Carter a lot, but we can get a nice centre piece to the DLine elsewhere in this draft, I really can't see a QB with quite the potential this year (or in next years class, AR is just that much of a unicorn).
Then take #20 and be boring. Trade it down for a '24 1st/2nd and pick a nice DLine piece in Mazi Smith/Ade Ade/McDonald/Van Ness. Just please, don't be boring with the gift that is #5! I'd rather end up being 0-17 for the next five years having at least put it all on the line, rather than feeling safe at 8-9/9-8 on repeat. It's fine to be a 'Hawks fan, a Vikings fan, a Titans fan. I'd rather be the Bengals fan, the Rams fan, even the 49ers fan, taking the hardship for the best times.
Ahhhh, i'm just so f*cking excited for this draft. Awesome for the 'Hawks. Awesome for the NFL with it being so open and unknown. AAAAHHHHHH!!!!!
Except...
I just don't see the potential in AR. I would think he would of had some flashes of brilliance by now, but he really hasn't. I really don't want to pay some guy $35M to sit on the bench for two years.
Why take Richardson at 5 if he's likely to drop into at least the second half of the first round? Way too many question marks in my opinion to be worth that kind of draft capital.
Well, Schrager has Carter at #5, then trading up to #12 for Richardson - this would not be boring!
I think that's stretching it a bit. I think your buddy (and the love is palpable) is saying that HE would not under any circumstance draft Carter as high as the 5th pick, but he is conceding that SOME teams, or at least specifically Detroit at #6, could. Separately, I think he is also saying that he would be happy drafting AR at #5, but the word on the NFL street is that AR might also be available at 20, so why not get some extra picks by trading down and still have a decent chance to get AR at 20?
That's a fair distance from saying that Rob now concedes that Carter is a better prospect than AR. Instead, he's saying only that while HE does not believe that to be the case at all (and that the Hawks are likely to agree with him, given Carter's perceived lack of fire in the belly or whatever), at least some other teams sound like they might.
As far as who ends up being "right," the only "right" that really matters will be decided on the field, over the next few seasons. The rest is just draft-style rosterbation. If Carter is drafted high and craters as a NFL player, for example, that's a very strange "win" for anybody who insisted he was worth a high pick, and the very same thing is true of Richardson..
The part about "AR being better than Carter" is a little ribbing, to be sure. But it is also undeniable that he has changed from AR-15 and Stroud as locks to go in the top-4 (which would make them fantastic prospects) to putting them where they are now. And from Carter being a horrible character nightmare who should at least drop as far as Jeffery Simmons to going in the top-5. Rob never expected that he would have to do this mock with Carter at 5 and AR at 10, Stroud at 11, he thought soon everyone would agree with him. And then for the fans who disagreed with him about Carter (who he had going into the 20s only a few weeks ago), he said they were stupid and uninformed and "didn't do 1% of the research that I do".
If Rob can call Seahawks fans stupid, I can surely tease him.
100% agree with this. Rob has laid out his well thought-out reasons over and over again for why he thinks Carter to Seattle is not happening. Maybe he's right! Or maybe he's wrong! Who knows? We might never know! And it really doesn't matter. Frankly, I think this little "competition" between Seaside and Rob Staton that Rob doesn't even know about, or at least has never acknowledged on his blog, is lame. Just worry about your own stuff.
I like Kenneth's thoughts on Witherspoon, and I wouldn't be upset with that pick, as long as they can get a QB solution at some point.
He doesn't acknowledge it on his blog because he doesn't want people checking out Seaside Joe and maybe finding out that the work here doesn't suck. As Chuck said, Rob knows. I talk about this stuff because of how other people treat Seahawks fans.
As I said in the post though, I respect people like you who don't care for that part of the content. Believe it or not, the overwhelming majority of responses I get on this is, "I'm glad someone finally said it". It's not just Rob, a lot of people in this industry treat their fans like dogshit.
Agree about sports media industry - and it's the reason I have a very difficult time listening to sports radio - the hosts of every single one of them that i've ever listened to in the many cities that i've lived in ALWAYS discounts anything a caller says on the air. The hosts act like they know better than everyone else, as if their job talking about sports makes them some kind of expert. Now that I think about it, I suppose this is the pattern that Rob has fallen into. I never thought about it like that but it makes total sense.
Either way, i appreciate both yours and his blogs immensely. Especially this time of year.
I appreciate it! And I consume his content too! I wouldn't talk about him if I wasn't following, and I don't see why every follower has to...follow.
Seaside Joe is open for criticism. And better yet, I listen to it. I try to be a man of the people and not place myself above the readers. What I saw a lot on twitter was people who have large followings would treat replies differently based on if they were coming from someone else who had a large following and/or a blue check vs if they didn't have a large following. "How much better am I than this person? Better check how many people they're following before I bash them to my followers on twitter for daring to disagree with me."
I don't subscribe to treating people that way. And I see this from anywhere to people who have 100k followers like Ben Baldwin or people with much fewer like Corbin Smith. You don't see people with large followings bash each other, they treat each other with respect, less they "piss off the wrong person". Not one person in the media will question another. But for me, the power of fan-funded places like Seaside Joe, another voice in the media can speak out.
Yes, Rob has felt the NEED to repeat his arguments ad nauseum. He hasn't actually changed his arguments but he has repeated them with near identical phrasing and wording more than three times. Why? What is the point? He had his say. Once was enough. Twice for confirmation that his opinion hasn't changed, I guess, but after that it felt more like propaganda. Like he absolutely NEEDS to convince his readers, and he shuts anyone down that disagrees with him. What is that about and why would anyone put up with that is what amazes me.
If you criticized him for his unnecessary repetitions he would delete your post. I don't exactly understand the dynamics between Rob and Ken entirely, but I believe Ken is honest about his feelings. Rob never addresses criticism of how he runs his blog. Never addresses his authoritarian tendencies. People on his blog genuflect to Rob at almost every opportunity. It is an odd dynamic, and it seems to me undeniable.
Oh, Rob knows. He's replied to plenty of articles posted by Ken on Twitter. These guys go back like 15 years, having worked together both in writing and podcasts. In the early days of Seaside Joe, SDB was promoted frequently. I think Rob's reactions to his own readers is what started it all. I get that it comes across one-sided but I think it's in part the treatment that lots of us have gotten on Rob's blog/Twitter that has fueled Joe to quote his Tweets and so forth. Frankly, Rob has a bad habit of belittling people who disagree with him. He censors his comment sections of thoughtful, well-intentioned replies that are said nicely. I have no doubt that Rob puts in the hours watching film; but the certainty in his convictions is a bit strange. It's not as if any of us know what is going to happen on draft day.
I agree you about Rob's comments section - I've definitely been on the receiving end of this somewhat. Not belittled or dismissed, but just not really willing to see it any other way. It's definitely the downside of SDB. But i like his writing and reasoning and I find Ken's pieces about "who's going to be right?" a strange. I mean, who cares?
You are being exceedingly kind to Mr. Staton! (This is a good thing in my book) He's often very arrogant and insistent in his beliefs (until he isn't) with small margin for disagreement (hence why he bans so many people who disagree with him). But he does spend a lot of time covering the Seahawks and I enjoy reading his blog and getting his perspectives. I just can't read the comments and his responses to the comments any more.