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Hawkman54's avatar

Understanding that you are probably correct, here is hoping upon hoping that either Olu or Harris can be the Guy at center-

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Hawkman54's avatar

Full offensive line? maybe in numbers, surely not on the talent end, not yet!

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Chris H's avatar

If you take John at his word, it will be player based, not position based in the early rounds. So it will really be their board that dictates where they go, not their needs/wants. So sure, it could be DT or Edge, but it could also be OT or OG/OC if they trade back a bit. I would agree the trenches need some new blood, but I wouldn't bypass I higher rated player to do that early in the draft. If they're top rated guy is a CB they might go there......and there are some good ones in this draft. I can only imagine the outcry if they did that.

Another thing John has said a few times is that not a lot has changed in what they are looking for, or in how they evaluate each position. I think he is saying that so that nobody knows what has changed in what they are looking for. I find it hard to believe what they look in a LB or DT or OG has not changed at all given the new schemes and coaches. I guess we'll find out.

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Charlie Swift's avatar

Ahh the narrative that having an offensive line just doesn’t matter much surfaces. Those that believe that should not be allowed to complain about Red Zone scoring, third down conversion percentages and second half of the season drop offs in offense. Because those stats directly correlate to offensive line play. Yes it is passing league but when a team cannot run then passing becomes an infinitely harder proposition.

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Fatema Karim's avatar

Or throw because the pass rush is pressuring the QB and the play they designed is deep. Because, for mysterious reasons, they won't do throws to the mid range that so many other teams pull of successfully against them.

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Danno's avatar

If the Seahawks do take an O-lineman early, it will be at tackle. That will likely mean Abe Lucas is unlikely to be back or reach his hoped for potential. "Guards are overpaid and over-drafted." Seahawks will pick a DB, a LB, and a D-lineman (edge or DT) before an OG. That would be the second pick in the 4th round absent a trade down to garner extra pick(s). If they do pick up a second round pick in a trade down, they may also pick a WR/TE before OG.

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Charlie Swift's avatar

You know who over pays guards Andy Reid. A great guard can make an average to below average tackle look a lot better.

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Danno's avatar

It's a complex process putting together a team with a salary cap. Last year we had by far and away the most expensive safety room in the league. This year we have one of the most expensive receiver rooms in the league. Our dead cap hit this year, while definitely not Denver sized, is one of the biggest. Deadcap reduces your effective spending cap on players who can actually play for you.

Ideally we make better spending choices moving forward, we get lucky with injuries, and then perhaps we can keep more money out on the field of play. Every year someone picked in the 4th round becomes a standout player. Seattle, through JS, invests heavily in their scouting system. With how deep the OL class is in this draft, perhaps he sees a 4th round pick that will be a high level starter for them. Although I'm sure JS is competing for the Super Bowl this year, it will likely take 2, 3 or 4 years of building the team to get there. Maybe Guard is not where he wants to start?

For me, anything more than 9 wins is a good year when you consider the retooling for a new defensive and offensive system is being put in place. More than 9 wins and a playoff win is a home run. The reason I feel JS is not trying to get there (SB) this year are all the 1 year contracts in free agency. I think he'd like to replace many of them through the draft, or at the very least, see if they can function at a high level in the new systems being installed.

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Hawkman54's avatar

I see a good chance at 10 wins- If they draft wisely and efficiently this year and their players from last year back to 3 years ago continue to develop, they get an o-line that is truly decent , then they could push hard next year IMHO-

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Spence's avatar

Thank you Joe, thank you. Finally a salient thought rises from the mist of a million tears sobbing for a new offensive line.

Oh Great Spirit please just give me one mean, ass-eating, defensive lineman to help our defense kick some serious butt. And just give the OL some time to settle, which they will.

Joe. Another HR! (they gonna be pissed with you now, son)

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Hawkman54's avatar

Without a decent O-line, starting with quality play at the center position, they will never have consistency which is how you actually build a top notch team!

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Hawkman54's avatar

Offensively-

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Fatema Karim's avatar

Yeah? And how did the offense do last year?

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Susan Dye's avatar

I doubt Abe Lucas will ever play a full schedule. He played 16 games as a rookie and six last season. Schneider needs to plan for his replacement. I hope he proves me wrong.

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Shaymus McFamous's avatar

I haven't commented much lately because you keep writing what I am thinking in your articles. Thank you for fueling my confirmation bias, Ken.

FWIW, 12th man rising has us sticking and picking DT, DT, OL, OL, Edge, then RB last. Looking at it, I think I missed one. They have us getting Byron Murphy II, then Kris Jenkins. If they both are available, this really could happen with how we have worked free agency. They pointed out Jarran Reed is only signed through next year. Noth those guys are top-5 DTs and NASTY.

I agree with the general sentiment I am getting from most of the comments and the article that these signings address our NEEDS, and like you said... we could field a team right now. We have out baseline needs filled, and now have the flexibility to go BPA at every pick, or trade without feeling pressure to fill a need.

As often pointed out, we were close last 2 yrs, maybe better last yr than 2022, but had injuries and a much harder schedule. Now, with new schemes and coaches (Nwosu is very happy with new coaching staff according to recent comments), JS has tried to improve that part of the team, and can now increase our overall level of talent and attitude piece by piece.

I am not excited yet, but I like what we've done so far. Now.... the draft.

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Stephen LeGrand's avatar

They hired a defensive coordinator as head coach. Our defense was a problem last season. The new head coach will almost certainly be expected to improve the defense as job 1. That means the draft is going to be focused on new tools for the new coach to show what he was hired to do.

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Ode's avatar

Thank you for saying this part out loud!

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Bob's avatar

Easy peasey: Trade back...pick a DT run stopping monster in the middle with the 1st pick, and Mims (or a 'Mims like' pit bull) with the 2nd.

Having said that, this geezer has made way too many bad choices over the years to be taken seriously. So, never mind.

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Dale's avatar

“But what about Oluwatimi and Bradford? Is the answer that if a player can’t start and play at a high level as a rookie that he must be replaced immediately?” Good point SSJ.

I think we all need to have a little patience and see what unfolds. I’m sure we all agree the Seahawks had multiple issues and areas where we could improve from last year, but we can’t fix everything via the draft and/or FA.

I would argue that many of the issues were down to scheme and coaching, rather than lump it all on players. Both the O and D showed something at times last season - just not enough.

I’m looking forward to what the new coaching staff is going to do, including with the players we already have. And I’m hoping they can get more from everyone on the field. Time will tell, but I will keep the faith for now (Cue Bon Jovi clip from Doug).

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Cold Steel and Sunshine's avatar

He have been told that John does not take guards high in the draft, by John himself. We are not converting a tackle to guard with pick 16. That will not happen. If we take a tackle at 16 it will be for them to play tackle. Guard will be 3rd or later not first and that’s been known for weeks now. I’ve said this before on FG and people brought up Ifedi and Carpenter, stating they were first r pubs picks at tackle converted to guard. This is proof that for John this has not worked in the past.

At 16 we will be taking a T, DT, Edge, CB or QB and that is it. Based on positional value these positions deserve first round money and rookie contracts mean savings in these positions.

I’m glad we signed Tomlinson, he is definitely as good as Lewis and much better than Haynes.

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Danno's avatar

Well said. Picking an OT at 16 will likely mean Lucas' future is questionable. Although Cross has yet to play at an elite level, I think it's too early to write him off at becoming a high level player. Give him one more year and hopefully he and Lucas stay healthy and play better at full health.

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Hawkman54's avatar

Cross needs to be given a break since he played with turf toe most of last year. We will see with Lucas? Again Hoping Olu and/or Harris can bring the bacon at Center!

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Scott M's avatar

I think we all need to have patience and get ready for the learning curve to play out in front of our faces on national television. We have a new system, new coaches, and even if the players were exactly the same, it would look vastly different - but throw in the fact that we are going to have several new faces and BAM we got a very new team. Draft the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE, no overthinking it! Which ever pick gets us closer to more wins and more wins against critical opponents (i.e. division rivals, top teams). I like the idea of stacking the trenches and fixing the defense. Stick and pick at 16 if the board falls in a way you get a top tier player. If not try and trade down. Hope someone we don't like falls and others want that player thus creating a bidding war for pick 16..? I'm looking at trading down from pick 81, I think it could be in that range of "good players that are still desired" and "not much drop off for the next 40 picks". Again, I think we are setting it up to be able to go BPA....having zero stress to force the draft outcomes, and the ability to just dream and imagine "what if.." LET'S GO JSMM!!!!!!

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Mike McD's avatar

The signing of Lake Tomlinson to a 1-year deal has been both telegraphed for quite some time and doesn't change much if anything about the draft. The Seahawks have done a good job of getting some guys signed that will allow them to select whoever they feel is best in the draft.

But make no mistake about it, this is another stop-gap 1 year FA signing.

The arguments to give rookies a shot needs to be done both ways. Wouldn't drafting Jared Verse be no different than drafting a guard, for example? When is Derek Hall going to get his shot? And Derek Hall/Boye Mafe are second round picks ... while Bradford is 4th and Olu is a 5th round pick.

Overall, the Hawks had two major issues after 2023: Defense and Offensive Line.

It would be very hard to make the case that the offensive line has gotten better this offseason. Going from Damien Lewis who is market worth is $13M/yr to Laken Tomlinson who is $4M/yr is not exactly inspiring as just one example.

Overall, if this version of the Hawks line takes the field my sentiment will be "let's just not mess up guys", whereas when, for example, the Eagles or Lions take the field, it will be "lets enforce our will on this game and dominate both run and pass".

But, I agree that they will go best player available and not just grab a lineman in the first round.

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Paul G's avatar

Hall had his shot at getting a shot and didn’t show much. It’s reasonable to expect Day 3 picks to need more development time than an early Day 2 pick.

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Mike McD's avatar

I don’t know.

I’m not ready to give up on Hall. Making the transition to the NFL is tough. He only played 25% of the snaps last year.

I am also not saying to give up on Bradford or Olu. Just saying that those guys shouldn’t negate drafting a guard just like Hall doesn’t negate drafting an edge (verse).

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Dale's avatar

Sorry, I know how much you like him, but I would also add QB as a major issue.

I also know you blame the offence for his problems, but the stats don’t really bear that argument out if you look at sacks last year. Both Seahawks and Geno were down the list. Even looking at being pressured, he was mid-range.

I admit the O-line wasn’t great, but it was overall. QB is a need at Seattle that also requires addressing.

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Mike McD's avatar

2023 Stats

Pressure rate: Seahawks were 26th 24.4% pressured per drop back

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/advanced.htm

"Best QBs at Sack Avoidance by P2S%

1. Josh Allen - 10%

2. Patrick Mahomes - 10.6%

3. Brock Purdy - 13.1%

4. Jordan Love - 13.7%

T5. Jared Goff - 13.9%

T5. Geno Smith - 13.9%

7. Jalen Hurts - 14.4%

8. Justin Herbert - 15.6%

9. Matt Stafford - 15.8%

10. Josh Dobbs - 16.2%"

Source: https://x.com/sportsnationco/status/1774831496957755625

2023 Offensive Rank

10th overall EPA/play

10th overall dropback EPA/Play

Source: https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

You can also just look at it logically. The Seahawks have a 17-15 record with Geno at QB. During that time period they have the 2nd worst defense by EPA/play. I think we can all agree that their offensive line is bad. Even if you want to say the receivers are pretty good or even the best.

So if you have a terrible defense and a bad offensive line. Good recievers. Where does that leave the QB? How is it possible to win 17 games out of 32?

Only one answer: he is good. Which is what the GM said also.

Just is what it is. Not much else to say really. Can you get better than good? Yes. But recognize there is a whole lot of room to get worse than good.

IE Sam Howell starting on the Hawks last year would've probably netted about 4 wins. The guy takes sacks consistently and is turning the ball over consistently.

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Shaymus McFamous's avatar

FWIW, the college passing stats vs the blitz for the main QBs at the top of the draft (top-8) is awful. The only 2 that weren't absolutely shredded by the blitz were Bo Nix and Penix. Per Pat Kirwan (who was quoting the stats after looking at tape), this is something that he says is one of the biggest adjustments to the pros. The speed of the game, specifically with regards to pressure, is hard to prepare for. So, these 2 guys show to be most pro-ready according to him. They both had higher than NFL average completion % and lower sack %. If the others maintain their same college efficiency vs the bkitz, they'll be ranked last in the NFL.

BTW, he is a great listen on Sirius XM radio's "Moving the Chains" if you get the app or spend a lot of time in the car, like me.

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Mike McD's avatar

Great nuggets of information there. Very interesting

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Dale's avatar

Ahhhh, stats….

They never can tell the whole story.

Were the pressures all on the O- line?Or could some have been due to Geno’s poor and/or slow decision making?

17-15 record - that’s near enough to 50-50 (ie. pretty average). And 10th overall O rank? That’s sounds better. Doesn’t that suggest the O-line wasn’t as bad as what we thought?

Regardless of all that, stats can be made to have something look bad or good depending on how and what is presented. I’d rather go by what I witnessed with my own eyes - which was average-ness from Geno.

Once again, sorry. I know you like him. But I agree to disagree. And that’s one of the many things I love about SSJ. we can respectfully all have our different opinions but, in the end, we all just want our Hawks to win.

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Hawkdawg's avatar

The problem with the OL is several-fold. Our best player (Lucas) is hurt, and his prospects for true recovery are hazy. Our second best player (Cross) is not as good as he should be for where he was drafted. I've watched Troy Fautanu for years now with Washington, and I'd swap him right now for Cross in a New York minute. His mental make-up and drive alone make his eventual ceiling higher than Cross's ceiling, and I mean at tackle. At guard, I'd also take him over Williamson, and that includes next year. The dude competes his butt off, with plenty of skill. We can't seem to find a center we like, either. Would love to see a player who is quick enough to pull and strong enough to anchor, consistently. Maybe Olu can be that guy., and Bradford might pan out at RG, we'll see. But overall, between injury and skill issues, we just aren't good enough. The guys we signed this offseason are not going to fix that in the longer term, and are also unlikely to do so in the short term. They can make us serviceable, but that's about it.

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Hawkman54's avatar

Amen to that- And as I have said on numerous occasions - Hutch and Walter both said that their line didn't come together until they got a very good center in Robbie Toebeck who became the leader of that unit. Who makes the calls? the adjustments? works with the QB on changes etc. ???

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Paul G's avatar

OT is a demanding position. I can’t see any rookie tackle not named something like Walter Jones or Orlando Pace being better than a healthy Charles Cross in his third year. Way too early to give up on Cross, especially considering the turf toe.

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Hawkdawg's avatar

Cross has yet to convince me he is more, or will be more, than a decent LT. I don't think I'm alone.

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Paul G's avatar

I believe and hope that Schneider will draft the best defensive player available with whatever his first pick happens to be. He didn’t hire Mike Macdonald to straighten out the OL; MMs absolute top priority is turn around a bad defense. Even given his reputation of getting the best out of players, the Seattle D isn’t so deep in talent that it can’t benefit from an upgrade in just about every position group.

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