Seahawks NFL Pro stats, Week 7

Seahawks defensive stats and a preview of the Falcons offense: Seaside Joe 2054

This first edition of NFL Pro Stats, Week 7 is just going to look at the defense. Because I was going to do all the numbers as usual, but then the defense alone as enough to be its own newsletter. If you like this free edition of the newsletter, subscribe to Regular Joes for $5 per month to get part 2.

And I said I was going to try and not make everything a negative everyday on the newsletter, so let me start with the positive before we are forced to get into the Seahawks defensive stats through six weeks:

As rough as the Seahawks have looked on defense lately, the L.A. Rams are twice as bad and half as likely to fix it.

Seahawks Defense: 19th in yards per game (339.7), 25th in points per game (25), 18th in yards per play (5.5), 17th in EPA/play (-0.05)

By comparison, the top scoring defense belongs to the Chargers at 13.2 points per game (almost half of what the Seahawks are giving up and Jim Harbaugh’s defense is closely connected to Mike Macdonald’s defense), the Titans lead the NFL at 248.8 yards per game allowed and 4.3 yards per play allowed, the Vikings lead the NFL with -0.27 EPA per play.

It just feels wrong to talk about where the Seahawks defense ranks without splitting the numbers between the first three games and the most recent three. I can tell you that the Seahawks have allowed 1,292 yards since Week 4, second-most in the NFL. I can tell you that Seattle is allowing 5.5 YPC in the last three games (4th-worst) and 519 rushing yards (3rd-worst).

Game situation splits

I can also tell you that the Seahawks defense ranks 23rd on third down conversion rate allowed (44.1%) in the past three games, but the Falcons rank 31st (51.4%) so maybe there will be more hope for the offense this Sunday.

One thing Seattle’s defense has done well so far is lockdown when they have the lead. The Seahawks are allowing -0.26 EPA/play when they have a lead, but again this is heavily weighted in the first three weeks because Seattle hasn’t had many leads since Week 4. When the Seahawks are behind, the defense is allowing +0.11 EPA/play.

Seattle is 27th in the NFL in EPA/play out of base personnel (+.08), 18th in nickel (-.02), and first in rare dime situations (-.61), but there have only been 18 such plays.

The Seahawks pass defense has allowed 145 yards after catch over expectation, fifth-worst in the NFL. We can look to the Julian Love bad angle last week as an example of why that stat matters and why it doesn’t look so good for the Seahawks right now.

Deep pass attempts (20+ air yards)

Another interesting one is that Seattle is pressuring quarterbacks on only 22.2% of deep pass attempts, which is third-worst in the NFL. I presume that a deep pass is the best opportunity to get a pressure. But the Seahawks are averaging 4.35 seconds until pressure on those plays, which is worst in the NFL…by a lot. The team in 31st place (NO) gets to the QB in 3.67 seconds.

Again these are only deep passes (Seattle’s seen the second-fewest deep pass attempts) so it could be an anomaly messing with the numbers.

The Seahawks defense is good on intermediate passes, ranking 11th in EPA/pass and 17th in pressure rate. But again, they rank 30th in time to pressure, this time at 2.97 seconds. Seattle does have the fourth-lowest rate of blitzes in these situations.

The Seahawks are slightly better in short pass attempts, ranking fourth in pressure rate and 18th in EPA/pass.

Pressure and Blitz

Seattle has allowed 1.1 yards per pass when they get pressure on the QB, which is second-best in the NFL. What they need to do is turn more pressures into sacks: They’re just 12th in the NFL in sack% (21%) when they get pressure. Their Week 5 opponent, the Giants, is first at 32.5%.

So what do you think happens when the Seahawks don’t get pressure? 8.7 yards per pass, second-worst in the NFL ahead of only the Rams at 9.4.

The Rams did not even try to build a defense.

The Seahawks get a sack on 5.7% of their blitz attempts, which is 26th. They get a pressure on 43.4% of their blitzes, which is 13th. I think it’s fair to hypothesize that the pressure rate will be stable and eventually the sacks will catch up. And the takeaways.

To me, it’s just bad luck that the Seahawks aren’t forcing turnovers. Yeah, it helps to have someone like T.J. Watt, but most teams create turnovers without having Muhammad Ali throwing haymakers at the ball on every run play. I think the Seahawks are doing the right things to create turnovers.

Play action defense

The Seahawks have the fourth-worst play action defense in the NFL by EPA/pass allowed (+0.26, which is still a lot better than the Rams at +0.83) and that’s because Seattle has allowed 388 yards after the catch on play action, the most in the NFL. Their +125 YACOE is also the worst in the league.

So are the Seahawks better when it’s not play action? Yeah, they rank 7th in EPA/pass in non-play action situations (-0.24) and they have the fourth-best sack rate (9.4%). But I’m still curious what the personnel was in those situations where the stats were most impacted, both on the Seahawks defense and their opponent’s offense.

Interestingly, the Seahawks blitz 18.8% of the time when it isn’t play action compared to 44.3% when it is play action. This couldn’t be a coincidence. Are teams going to bait the Seahawks into blitzing in expected play action situations and then take advantage of Seattle’s -1 in coverage?

Run Defense

144.7 rushing yards allowed per game (27th), 5.0 YPC allowed (28th), 0.00 EPA/rush (t14th), Rush Yards Over Expectation +1.08 (30th), YAC/att: 3.8 (31st)

The big problems are obviously the extra yards allowed, ranking bottom three in RYOE and yards after contact is why the Seahawks are 28th in yards per carry.

Inside/Outside

The Seahawks are allowing 5.2 YPC on inside runs, tied for the third-worst in the NFL and this is on 76 plays. They’re allowing -0.08 EPA/run and 3.45 YAC/att on inside runs.

Out of 93 outside runs, the Seahawks have been a little worse at +.06 EPA/run and 4.28 YAC/attempt, which is the worst in the NFL.

Do the splits matter that much right now? In almost any situation against a competent offense, the Seahawks run defense has been a letdown this season. I recommend watching this video by Legion of 12s for more information on why the defense has been so bad and why it might not be that concerning yet.

vs. 49ers

The Seahaks allowed +0.27 EPA/play against the 49ers, which is the 11th-worst single game performance by any defense in the NFL in 2024. The worst? The Seahawks in Week 4 against the Lions at +0.46 EPA/play allowed.

Seattle allowed more yards per play (7.9) to San Francisco than they did to Detroit (7.8), but the Lions scored six touchdowns.

The Seahawks allowed +0.27 EPA/rush to the Niners, 14th-worst game of the season. So it was the pass defense that hurt against the Lions (worst EPA/pass game of the season for any defense) and the run defense that stood out against the 49ers.

Falcons offense

Looking ahead to Week 7, the Atlanta Falcons have a top-10 offense so far and that’s almost all because of their passing offense. That being said, I think Bijan Robinson is only going to get better from here on out and he must be thinking this is a good opportunity to get his first 100-yard rushing game of the season.

The Falcons have scored 36 and 38 points and over 400 yards in their last two games. The Seahawks have not scored 30 points yet this season and the last time they scored 36 was in Week 2 and 3 of last season. They last time they scored at least 38 was Week 4 2022 against the Lions.

So is the Seahawks offense capable of out-scoring the Falcons if Seattle’s defense allows Atlanta to get to 30 points? That’s not just on the defense either: The offense can’t turn the ball over, the special teams units can’t make costly mistakes. The whole team has to work together to keep the Falcons under 30.

Drake London is on pace for 1,200 yards, Darnell Mooney is tracking for just over 1,000. Kyle Pitts has 158 yards in the last two games, a sign that things could be picking up for him and Seattle’s defense has a history of struggling against tight ends.

The Falcons have allowed pressure on 33.8% of passing plays, 15th in the NFL (the Seahawks are 14th) and speaking of play action, Atlanta is only 24th in EPA/pass on those attempts. The Falcons and Seahawks both rarely call play action. As such, the Falcons rank third in the NFL with +0.14 EPA/pass on non-play action attempts. I wonder if we might see Macdonald blitz a little more often on non-play action attempts this week.

Again, not the worst rushing offense in the NFL. But not good enough to be called average. This will be a good test for the Seahawks to prove that yes they got beat by really good running teams, can they now improve against a bad rushing offense?