Offensive coaching/play-calling holds the key to the season in my eyes. The personnel overall is almost certainly going to be better through replacing Jackson+Blythe and presumably upgrading from Godwin to JSN. During the oft-referenced "late season collapse" I distinctly remember the spike in early-game INTs where the defender just KNEW where the ball was going. Geno is partly accountable for that, of course, but if a DC is able to predict your scripted plays (the first 20ish plays of the game iirc) then you get into an early hole, which is where NFL defenses want you.
More talent across the OL and receiving corps obviously lowers the "level of difficulty", but teams need an OC that's a canny counterpuncher who can both adjust on the fly and plan long-term to evolve their offense throughout a season. That's been missing during the Waldron years imo, though this is the first year Geno will get a full off-season as QB1 with a full season of chemistry with most of the skill position players, leaving room for growth that we've not seen to date.
Another hallmark of successful playoff teams? Extreme, opponent-specific game plans. From Bellichick vs the Goff Rams and the Brady-Gronk connection to Anarumo vs Reid/Mahomes to this year's tush-push Eagles vs the KC motion-cutbacks, it's becoming more and more apparent that you need a few big red "win the down" buttons to smash if you want to win playoff games.
There is no one way to win the Superbowl. If our secondary lives up to the LoB moniker and shuts down the opposition passing attack, facing KC/BUF/CIN becomes a hell of a lot nicer. Think back to XLVIII, that 2013 Broncos team was legendarily good on offence and only one team kept them under 26 points in the regular season (the Chargers of all teams, who then were the only team to do it in the Playoffs as well). But come the big day, b-o-o-m-!
Rams vs Bengals, honestly that Rams D was more influential than the attack. Buccs D ate Mahomes for dinner. Pats vs Rams was a slugfest of high level D play. A D-first team on the day will have just as good a chance as any other team. I'm trusting in Pete and his more balanced run-to-pass Geno-as-game-manager offence and palm tree (still trying to make this a thing) back-to-front-priority defence. Because it so much is based on that 2012-2014 style which was so successful. We don't have Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow or a D like SF, so lets not try to be like them. Show the league there are many ways, and all of them place behind the Pete Way!
I reserve the right to call for Petes head after we go 0-5.
Keep doing what your doing- IMHO 95% of the time it's very good (sometimes even better than very good) and I look forward to reading Seaside Joe! I wish I could do it-
"... comparing Seattle’s personnel to Super Bowl personnel, there is definitely a gap and perhaps one that won’t be closed. Perhaps." ... like that last "Perhaps." which gives us hope.
It’s admirable and inspirational that you live by your non-negotiable habits. I am trying to commit to doing meditation daily like you do. The key to improvement is not spending hours per day on something but rather to focus intently for short periods of time like 10 minutes or so. But the key is to do it daily or regularly, and consistently with discipline. I do enjoy your “blather”.
I like that you are focusing on explosive plays. In my opinion explosive plays are the under emphasized stat that correlates to scoring. Explosive play differential was the hallmark of Seattle from 2012 through 2014 when we lead the league in that stat. I don't have the stats from last year, but my impression was that the Seahawks, while generating a lot of explosive plays last year did not do so on consistent game to game basis. It was feast or famine, with a lot of hunger in the second half of the season. The same was true on defense but it varied from game to game rather than the first and second half of the season.
I have a theory as to why on offense. My theory is that in the first half of the season opposing defense tried to aggressively take away short passing and zone running game that they anticipated Seattle would utilize based on Geno's and Penny's starts the year before. It was not unreasonable approach as back up qbs generally do not stretch the field vertically, and Seattle was thought to be a run first team so it made sense to flood the short intermediate areas and aggressively target gaps to disrupt zone blocking. Consequently teams were unprepared for Geno in the first half of the season despite the vertical pass and zone running game being a stable of Seattle's offense during the Wilson years.
In my opinion, a similar defensive approach explains why a QB like Nick Foles was so effective in short spurts. Dude could push the ball down field and was not afraid to do so. The Philly offense also featured backs who excelled in the zone running the way Lynch and Penny did. It is not a coincidence that Penny is now in Philly, as when healthy he is there kind of running back and great compliment to a QB like Hurts. It can be very effective but if the running game falters then the vertical passing game can be taken away through adjustments. And that it was happened to Foles.
In the second half of last season, a similar thing happened to the Seahawks as what happened to the Fole's led Philly offenses. Defenses adjusted to stop the vertical passing game and emphasized lane discipline to prevent the gaps that Walker had exploded through. In short opposing defenses played third and long defense on first down and Seattle explosive plays dried up. The Seahawks were not able to counter by exploiting the opportunities created in the middle of the field for positive plays/ explosive plays on a consistent basis.
The question is is this failure attributable to Geno or Waldron's limitations. Returning to Foles, Doug Peterson and Andy Reid are really good offensive coaches. The reason the offense led by Nick Foles fell back to earth is, he just could not generate explosive plays outside of the vertical passing game. The worry is that Geno will likewise continue to struggle when defenses take away the vertical passing games. The danger sign is the number of turnover worthy throws Geno made last year. Those were approaching Foles, Wentz, territory, and his similarity in the second half to Foles Wentz is more than a little concerning. That being said he was better than either.
But without benefit of the all field view and the play calls it is difficult to know for sure, and there is reason for optimism. Generating explosive plays in the horizontal timing passing game in many ways is more difficult for a first year starter than the vertical game because an explosive play requires precision and feel that is built through reps and mutual understanding. Also when Penny got injured there was really no player on the Seahawks who excelled the inside zone running play. Walker improved but it is really not his game. Bottom line is that in se3cond half of the season the running game did not force eight men into the box to open up the vertical passing game.
Likewise as good as Lockett and Metcalf are neither excels in the short passing game. For different reasons neither are consistent threat to turn a short pass into an explosive play. All of which allowed defenses to sit back and read and react to to the plays making it near impossible to generate as many explosive plays.
This is where JSN and Chardonnet could be the most impactful rookies in the NFC. Players with third downs skills who on first down, can get four yards on running play and five yards on a pass play with the potential to break a tackle and create explosive play on their own. They complement what Seahawks do well by doing something completely different. The hope is that between them they will add another 10 to 12 explosive plays next year not just by making the plays but also by reducing the number of no gain / negative plays on first down. They can't do it by themselves though. Geno and Waldron have to be able to use the weapons. I think they can but time will tell.
There are a lot of variables but the potential for being one of the league leader in explosive plays on offense is there. To lead in explosive play differential, the Seahawks first and foremost need to tackle better on defense.
You do write some tangents sometimes, and you do talk a bit about your personal growth. But guess what: Life isn’t just football, and although football is what we signed up for, more and more people are signing up which to me means those tangents and personal stories are additive. I for one am inspired by what you do personally. Maybe that’s not what our fellow seasider means by blabbing, but if it is, I’d say most of us like it!
To slightly modify a familiar phrase: “it’s not blabbering if you can back it up“. I think the general consensus here is that SJ has backed it up. SJ,, that means you are probably not blabbering.
My concern at center is that neither Brown, nor the rookie stand a great chance at creating real leadership soon enough, which I think is necessary for this position.
This connects with overall offensive line cohesion, which I am slightly worried about despite the experience of Lewis and the two 2nd year tackles, Haynes and Curhan. It’s just a question mark overall and I think a very important one.
TE: Fant REALLY needs to take a big step up. I do want to see Dissly get repeated reception opportunities, so that he is not typecast as a blocking tight end. I still wonder why Perkinson was never utilized as a red zone threat.
I might be a tactical dummy and general know-nothing, but I wish the Hawks would run more plays with two running backs. That would give the talent there a chance to get lots of reps if not always carries. A better offensive line would reduce the need for each back to be a great blocker. Just good would do. (And whatever they are going to do with Dareke Young, I just wish they would do it.)
WR: No worries. And the depth is there when injuries occur.
QB: No worries beyond the normal ones. better depth than most other teams- I think.
Offensive coaching/play-calling holds the key to the season in my eyes. The personnel overall is almost certainly going to be better through replacing Jackson+Blythe and presumably upgrading from Godwin to JSN. During the oft-referenced "late season collapse" I distinctly remember the spike in early-game INTs where the defender just KNEW where the ball was going. Geno is partly accountable for that, of course, but if a DC is able to predict your scripted plays (the first 20ish plays of the game iirc) then you get into an early hole, which is where NFL defenses want you.
More talent across the OL and receiving corps obviously lowers the "level of difficulty", but teams need an OC that's a canny counterpuncher who can both adjust on the fly and plan long-term to evolve their offense throughout a season. That's been missing during the Waldron years imo, though this is the first year Geno will get a full off-season as QB1 with a full season of chemistry with most of the skill position players, leaving room for growth that we've not seen to date.
Another hallmark of successful playoff teams? Extreme, opponent-specific game plans. From Bellichick vs the Goff Rams and the Brady-Gronk connection to Anarumo vs Reid/Mahomes to this year's tush-push Eagles vs the KC motion-cutbacks, it's becoming more and more apparent that you need a few big red "win the down" buttons to smash if you want to win playoff games.
There is no one way to win the Superbowl. If our secondary lives up to the LoB moniker and shuts down the opposition passing attack, facing KC/BUF/CIN becomes a hell of a lot nicer. Think back to XLVIII, that 2013 Broncos team was legendarily good on offence and only one team kept them under 26 points in the regular season (the Chargers of all teams, who then were the only team to do it in the Playoffs as well). But come the big day, b-o-o-m-!
Rams vs Bengals, honestly that Rams D was more influential than the attack. Buccs D ate Mahomes for dinner. Pats vs Rams was a slugfest of high level D play. A D-first team on the day will have just as good a chance as any other team. I'm trusting in Pete and his more balanced run-to-pass Geno-as-game-manager offence and palm tree (still trying to make this a thing) back-to-front-priority defence. Because it so much is based on that 2012-2014 style which was so successful. We don't have Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow or a D like SF, so lets not try to be like them. Show the league there are many ways, and all of them place behind the Pete Way!
I reserve the right to call for Petes head after we go 0-5.
Keep doing what your doing- IMHO 95% of the time it's very good (sometimes even better than very good) and I look forward to reading Seaside Joe! I wish I could do it-
"... comparing Seattle’s personnel to Super Bowl personnel, there is definitely a gap and perhaps one that won’t be closed. Perhaps." ... like that last "Perhaps." which gives us hope.
It’s admirable and inspirational that you live by your non-negotiable habits. I am trying to commit to doing meditation daily like you do. The key to improvement is not spending hours per day on something but rather to focus intently for short periods of time like 10 minutes or so. But the key is to do it daily or regularly, and consistently with discipline. I do enjoy your “blather”.
I like that you are focusing on explosive plays. In my opinion explosive plays are the under emphasized stat that correlates to scoring. Explosive play differential was the hallmark of Seattle from 2012 through 2014 when we lead the league in that stat. I don't have the stats from last year, but my impression was that the Seahawks, while generating a lot of explosive plays last year did not do so on consistent game to game basis. It was feast or famine, with a lot of hunger in the second half of the season. The same was true on defense but it varied from game to game rather than the first and second half of the season.
I have a theory as to why on offense. My theory is that in the first half of the season opposing defense tried to aggressively take away short passing and zone running game that they anticipated Seattle would utilize based on Geno's and Penny's starts the year before. It was not unreasonable approach as back up qbs generally do not stretch the field vertically, and Seattle was thought to be a run first team so it made sense to flood the short intermediate areas and aggressively target gaps to disrupt zone blocking. Consequently teams were unprepared for Geno in the first half of the season despite the vertical pass and zone running game being a stable of Seattle's offense during the Wilson years.
In my opinion, a similar defensive approach explains why a QB like Nick Foles was so effective in short spurts. Dude could push the ball down field and was not afraid to do so. The Philly offense also featured backs who excelled in the zone running the way Lynch and Penny did. It is not a coincidence that Penny is now in Philly, as when healthy he is there kind of running back and great compliment to a QB like Hurts. It can be very effective but if the running game falters then the vertical passing game can be taken away through adjustments. And that it was happened to Foles.
In the second half of last season, a similar thing happened to the Seahawks as what happened to the Fole's led Philly offenses. Defenses adjusted to stop the vertical passing game and emphasized lane discipline to prevent the gaps that Walker had exploded through. In short opposing defenses played third and long defense on first down and Seattle explosive plays dried up. The Seahawks were not able to counter by exploiting the opportunities created in the middle of the field for positive plays/ explosive plays on a consistent basis.
The question is is this failure attributable to Geno or Waldron's limitations. Returning to Foles, Doug Peterson and Andy Reid are really good offensive coaches. The reason the offense led by Nick Foles fell back to earth is, he just could not generate explosive plays outside of the vertical passing game. The worry is that Geno will likewise continue to struggle when defenses take away the vertical passing games. The danger sign is the number of turnover worthy throws Geno made last year. Those were approaching Foles, Wentz, territory, and his similarity in the second half to Foles Wentz is more than a little concerning. That being said he was better than either.
But without benefit of the all field view and the play calls it is difficult to know for sure, and there is reason for optimism. Generating explosive plays in the horizontal timing passing game in many ways is more difficult for a first year starter than the vertical game because an explosive play requires precision and feel that is built through reps and mutual understanding. Also when Penny got injured there was really no player on the Seahawks who excelled the inside zone running play. Walker improved but it is really not his game. Bottom line is that in se3cond half of the season the running game did not force eight men into the box to open up the vertical passing game.
Likewise as good as Lockett and Metcalf are neither excels in the short passing game. For different reasons neither are consistent threat to turn a short pass into an explosive play. All of which allowed defenses to sit back and read and react to to the plays making it near impossible to generate as many explosive plays.
This is where JSN and Chardonnet could be the most impactful rookies in the NFC. Players with third downs skills who on first down, can get four yards on running play and five yards on a pass play with the potential to break a tackle and create explosive play on their own. They complement what Seahawks do well by doing something completely different. The hope is that between them they will add another 10 to 12 explosive plays next year not just by making the plays but also by reducing the number of no gain / negative plays on first down. They can't do it by themselves though. Geno and Waldron have to be able to use the weapons. I think they can but time will tell.
There are a lot of variables but the potential for being one of the league leader in explosive plays on offense is there. To lead in explosive play differential, the Seahawks first and foremost need to tackle better on defense.
You do write some tangents sometimes, and you do talk a bit about your personal growth. But guess what: Life isn’t just football, and although football is what we signed up for, more and more people are signing up which to me means those tangents and personal stories are additive. I for one am inspired by what you do personally. Maybe that’s not what our fellow seasider means by blabbing, but if it is, I’d say most of us like it!
To slightly modify a familiar phrase: “it’s not blabbering if you can back it up“. I think the general consensus here is that SJ has backed it up. SJ,, that means you are probably not blabbering.
My concern at center is that neither Brown, nor the rookie stand a great chance at creating real leadership soon enough, which I think is necessary for this position.
This connects with overall offensive line cohesion, which I am slightly worried about despite the experience of Lewis and the two 2nd year tackles, Haynes and Curhan. It’s just a question mark overall and I think a very important one.
TE: Fant REALLY needs to take a big step up. I do want to see Dissly get repeated reception opportunities, so that he is not typecast as a blocking tight end. I still wonder why Perkinson was never utilized as a red zone threat.
I might be a tactical dummy and general know-nothing, but I wish the Hawks would run more plays with two running backs. That would give the talent there a chance to get lots of reps if not always carries. A better offensive line would reduce the need for each back to be a great blocker. Just good would do. (And whatever they are going to do with Dareke Young, I just wish they would do it.)
WR: No worries. And the depth is there when injuries occur.
QB: No worries beyond the normal ones. better depth than most other teams- I think.
"If you're not blabbering to somebody, then you're probably not writing to anybody." - Something I just made up
Maybe Jason Kelce also offers great hope for players like Olu: He wasn't a highly rated prospect, so we'll see if maybe the Seahawks got lucky.