This is why I am a paid super Joe subscriber. I can’t think about the Seahawks without allowing my heart to become involved. I grew up in the 60’s. Back then the vast majority of your stars stuck with a team for years if not their whole career, and the fan base was avidly behind these players. Now these players make purely financial decisions, and the cap means a team is often not able to compete and retain a player because that would be irresponsible to spend the money of a player beloved by the fan base when it would be better off being spent on someone else.
I’m not sure how to feel about this. I agree players should get all they can while they can, but it does make it difficult to be a fan when some star player is here today, gone tomorrow. Basketball is far worse. Star players jump ship in a heartbeat. I have given up professional basketball entirely. I am told the NBA is actually losing viewership. That shouldn’t be hard to figure out why. I can still name every player on the NY Knicks in the 60’s and 70’s. There were a few trades back then. Earl the pearl Monroe for one, but far fewer and that was a much better situation to grow fan support.
“Now these players make purely financial decisions…”
As opposed to the teams making purely financial decisions. Finance is the driver no matter how you cut it. I’d rather have the guys doing the work making the decisions.
I don't necessarily have problems with players getting what they can when they can either, but what I have trouble with is QBs who earn 2 to 40 times as much as all of their teammates. I am not sure how teams hold together when there is that much disparity. This last SB shows that a great QB really helps, but cannot compensate for an entire team. I would like to think if I was in that position, I would be happy with $20 or $25 million/year and allow the team to spend any extra on my teammates (I may however, want some say in how that additional money is spent).
I agree with everything you wrote, except for the part about keeping Fant. Kubiak was pretty clear that whomever your tight ends are they need to be able to block. And, while he didn't say that otherwise they will telegraph the play you have called, we have seen that happen time and time again when switching between Fant and our other tight ends. I say trade him or release him, but I would rather pair Barner with another rookie (who can block and catch -even if they are less talented) than pay Fant $10 mil again. To me, keeping Fant is keeping our offense predictable, and it is one of the mistakes I believe Kubiak and MacDonald are intent on correcting.
Kubiak may have said that, but he what he DID was scheme to players' strengths and cover team injuries/ weaknesses. He got Juwan Johnson (a similarly skilled player) to 568yds and 3 TDs last year in a similar situation to the proposal (no DK), not to mention the other TEs who chipped in. He could use Barner, Russell, a FA, or (God-forbid) Pharoah Brown as inline TEs with Fant taking the Johnson role as receiving TE.
Sure, I agree with all of those with the Fant exception you spoke of IF we trade DK, but I also think Roy Robertson-Harris, (that's the last time I will write out his entire name - instead let's call him Roy RH) 'He isn't paid a whole lot and I thought he was doing a lot of dirty work for our defense. Maybe try to rework his contract and this all depends on how MM thinks of him, but I for one thought he was giving decent play for what he cost.
Replacing DK might be tougher and more costly than just extending him for two or three years. I think he is a monster athlete who can continue to produce into his thirties. A second round pick for someone we would get a third round compensation pick for doesn;t seem wise or cost effective. Chances are slim we get a replacement for him in the second round, though it's possible. Third round and forget it. Though I do get wanting to replace him, but think about how a new OC is going to think about it. DK is someone they will see as completely improvable and a serious weapon along with JSN. JSN without a DK opposite will probably be double teamed and less often open. I think the new OC wants to utilize DK not trade him away.
It’s scary how SJ reads my mind. I’ve been going back and forth on Geno / no Geno and what that would allow us to do when it comes to free agency and draft.
My question with Geno is how much our crappy OL, lack of run game and play calling have led to his poor performance. We know he’s not the guy who can lift a bad team, but he appears to be a better option than what is available in FA or draft (we still should draft a QB) and likely has a few good years left.
Let's br honest, Geno is not a SB quality QB. period! Keep him on the last year of his contract and get a younger, more mobile QB to replace him during the 25 or 26 season. Save both time and money and give us fans hope for a better future.
I can't help but wonder how effective JSN would be without DK taking the top of the D. Let's not find out.
“On the other hand, if the Seahawks have the most financially responsible offseason available to them in the 2025 offseason, they could still compete just the same next season…”
Sure, if the Hawks had different GM. The one they actually have has a lengthy track record that says “financial responsibility equals Luke F. Joeckl, J’Marcus F. Webb, Bradly F. Sowell, Austin F. Blythe, Laken F. Tomlinson et al.” There’s no point to financial responsibility if the front office squanders the opportunity, which is just about a guarantee. Attack the root problem first.
Of these moves, trading Woolen is the one that gives me the most FOMO. I don't image anyone else on the list going to a new team and getting significantly better. I could, however, see Woolen improve into an pro-bowl/all-pro type of CB for another team. If MM and JS let him go, they better be right about him.
I doubt that the Rams regret extending Cooper Kupp. Les Snead is not stupid and was well aware of Kupp’s age. Teammates and players around the league—each a potential FA—take notice when a team rewards the players who produce. The benefits of this are no less real for being intangible.
Just a quick note on dead cap: the 2023 Eagles got to the Super Bowl with something like 15% of their total cap going to players no longer on the team and they did pretty well. Having a capable QB on a rookie deal cures alot of ills, as does being elite at the LoS.
On Fant, the TE, I like what KK can do with him. Fant we know has skills but rarely plays set for him. KK I think can use Fant well. And until injury happened, he had 2 TEs involved.
This is Mr. Smith's last opportunity to get paid, barring I don't even know what. He knows it, his agent knows it, the Seahawks know it. I don't know what the track record is of players in this situation being told to play out their last season under contract. My sense is you'd have to know Mr. Smith pretty well -- and he may not even know himself, until it's time -- to know how this might play out for him. (At a minimum, you'd better have a LOT of confidence in Mr. Howell.)
In the abstract -- away from human emotion -- this makes sense for the Seahawks. It's not a small amount of money for Mr. Smith to play another season here, and his agent may well confirm what SSJ has eloquently argued, that there's not much market for Mr. Smith's services just now. But his hold-out and one major training camp injury on another team could certainly change that.
We don't expect to compete for the Super Bowl next year, not unless something special happens we can't see from here. We do hope to position ourselves to compete for the Super Bowl in the not too distant future. Even if we don't believe Mr. Smith to be a SB-caliber quarterback (Nick Foles, anyone?), if we're not tanking next year -- and that makes no sense, either -- it's in everyone's best interests to make certain he's tolerably happy.
But, y'know, I'd bid for Justin Fields... (I kid, sorta, because I know nothing.)
Great take! My only comment would be regarding Uchenna and his release. I agree that most teams will see his value in that way but not Pete Carroll. I think Pete could take a flier on Uchenna and be willing to pay a bit more of a premium than any other team due to his potential value if healthy. That said, no one is in a better position to understand Uchenna's health the the Hawks. I would be inclined to cut ties with Uchenna if Mafe/Hall were a bit further along but they also employ a OLB by Committee so its hard to say. We'll find out soon enough but I wouldn't be surprised if he stays or, if not, ends up with Pete in the strip.
If Warren (not likely) and/or Loveland (more likely) are there at 1.18, they'd be tempting, depending on what else falls in their laps. If they draft a TE in the top 3 picks, I don't like Fant's chances of sticking. Blocking is not his forte.
Fantastic financial analysis breakdown!! These are great recommendations! Looking forward to W/O Geno analysis
This is why I am a paid super Joe subscriber. I can’t think about the Seahawks without allowing my heart to become involved. I grew up in the 60’s. Back then the vast majority of your stars stuck with a team for years if not their whole career, and the fan base was avidly behind these players. Now these players make purely financial decisions, and the cap means a team is often not able to compete and retain a player because that would be irresponsible to spend the money of a player beloved by the fan base when it would be better off being spent on someone else.
I’m not sure how to feel about this. I agree players should get all they can while they can, but it does make it difficult to be a fan when some star player is here today, gone tomorrow. Basketball is far worse. Star players jump ship in a heartbeat. I have given up professional basketball entirely. I am told the NBA is actually losing viewership. That shouldn’t be hard to figure out why. I can still name every player on the NY Knicks in the 60’s and 70’s. There were a few trades back then. Earl the pearl Monroe for one, but far fewer and that was a much better situation to grow fan support.
“Now these players make purely financial decisions…”
As opposed to the teams making purely financial decisions. Finance is the driver no matter how you cut it. I’d rather have the guys doing the work making the decisions.
I don't necessarily have problems with players getting what they can when they can either, but what I have trouble with is QBs who earn 2 to 40 times as much as all of their teammates. I am not sure how teams hold together when there is that much disparity. This last SB shows that a great QB really helps, but cannot compensate for an entire team. I would like to think if I was in that position, I would be happy with $20 or $25 million/year and allow the team to spend any extra on my teammates (I may however, want some say in how that additional money is spent).
Thanks for sharing Danno. You are right on about this newsletter. I'm gonna do the right thing and upgrade in a couple of weeks to Super Joes.
Great to hear, Rich! A like-minded subscriber is good for me!
I agree with everything you wrote, except for the part about keeping Fant. Kubiak was pretty clear that whomever your tight ends are they need to be able to block. And, while he didn't say that otherwise they will telegraph the play you have called, we have seen that happen time and time again when switching between Fant and our other tight ends. I say trade him or release him, but I would rather pair Barner with another rookie (who can block and catch -even if they are less talented) than pay Fant $10 mil again. To me, keeping Fant is keeping our offense predictable, and it is one of the mistakes I believe Kubiak and MacDonald are intent on correcting.
Kubiak may have said that, but he what he DID was scheme to players' strengths and cover team injuries/ weaknesses. He got Juwan Johnson (a similarly skilled player) to 568yds and 3 TDs last year in a similar situation to the proposal (no DK), not to mention the other TEs who chipped in. He could use Barner, Russell, a FA, or (God-forbid) Pharoah Brown as inline TEs with Fant taking the Johnson role as receiving TE.
You want to release:
WR Tyler Lockett
OT George Fant
OLB Dre’Mont Jones
S Rayshawn Jenkins
DT Roy Robertson-Harris
Sure, I agree with all of those with the Fant exception you spoke of IF we trade DK, but I also think Roy Robertson-Harris, (that's the last time I will write out his entire name - instead let's call him Roy RH) 'He isn't paid a whole lot and I thought he was doing a lot of dirty work for our defense. Maybe try to rework his contract and this all depends on how MM thinks of him, but I for one thought he was giving decent play for what he cost.
Replacing DK might be tougher and more costly than just extending him for two or three years. I think he is a monster athlete who can continue to produce into his thirties. A second round pick for someone we would get a third round compensation pick for doesn;t seem wise or cost effective. Chances are slim we get a replacement for him in the second round, though it's possible. Third round and forget it. Though I do get wanting to replace him, but think about how a new OC is going to think about it. DK is someone they will see as completely improvable and a serious weapon along with JSN. JSN without a DK opposite will probably be double teamed and less often open. I think the new OC wants to utilize DK not trade him away.
It’s scary how SJ reads my mind. I’ve been going back and forth on Geno / no Geno and what that would allow us to do when it comes to free agency and draft.
My question with Geno is how much our crappy OL, lack of run game and play calling have led to his poor performance. We know he’s not the guy who can lift a bad team, but he appears to be a better option than what is available in FA or draft (we still should draft a QB) and likely has a few good years left.
Let's br honest, Geno is not a SB quality QB. period! Keep him on the last year of his contract and get a younger, more mobile QB to replace him during the 25 or 26 season. Save both time and money and give us fans hope for a better future.
I can't help but wonder how effective JSN would be without DK taking the top of the D. Let's not find out.
“On the other hand, if the Seahawks have the most financially responsible offseason available to them in the 2025 offseason, they could still compete just the same next season…”
Sure, if the Hawks had different GM. The one they actually have has a lengthy track record that says “financial responsibility equals Luke F. Joeckl, J’Marcus F. Webb, Bradly F. Sowell, Austin F. Blythe, Laken F. Tomlinson et al.” There’s no point to financial responsibility if the front office squanders the opportunity, which is just about a guarantee. Attack the root problem first.
You said it...too many misses.
Of these moves, trading Woolen is the one that gives me the most FOMO. I don't image anyone else on the list going to a new team and getting significantly better. I could, however, see Woolen improve into an pro-bowl/all-pro type of CB for another team. If MM and JS let him go, they better be right about him.
I doubt that the Rams regret extending Cooper Kupp. Les Snead is not stupid and was well aware of Kupp’s age. Teammates and players around the league—each a potential FA—take notice when a team rewards the players who produce. The benefits of this are no less real for being intangible.
Just a quick note on dead cap: the 2023 Eagles got to the Super Bowl with something like 15% of their total cap going to players no longer on the team and they did pretty well. Having a capable QB on a rookie deal cures alot of ills, as does being elite at the LoS.
On Fant, the TE, I like what KK can do with him. Fant we know has skills but rarely plays set for him. KK I think can use Fant well. And until injury happened, he had 2 TEs involved.
This is Mr. Smith's last opportunity to get paid, barring I don't even know what. He knows it, his agent knows it, the Seahawks know it. I don't know what the track record is of players in this situation being told to play out their last season under contract. My sense is you'd have to know Mr. Smith pretty well -- and he may not even know himself, until it's time -- to know how this might play out for him. (At a minimum, you'd better have a LOT of confidence in Mr. Howell.)
In the abstract -- away from human emotion -- this makes sense for the Seahawks. It's not a small amount of money for Mr. Smith to play another season here, and his agent may well confirm what SSJ has eloquently argued, that there's not much market for Mr. Smith's services just now. But his hold-out and one major training camp injury on another team could certainly change that.
We don't expect to compete for the Super Bowl next year, not unless something special happens we can't see from here. We do hope to position ourselves to compete for the Super Bowl in the not too distant future. Even if we don't believe Mr. Smith to be a SB-caliber quarterback (Nick Foles, anyone?), if we're not tanking next year -- and that makes no sense, either -- it's in everyone's best interests to make certain he's tolerably happy.
But, y'know, I'd bid for Justin Fields... (I kid, sorta, because I know nothing.)
I would hope $45 mil makes him happy
Yes to everything except Noah Fant...Lot's of solid options in the Draft to pair with Barner. Way too much money for what he brings to the table.
Great take! My only comment would be regarding Uchenna and his release. I agree that most teams will see his value in that way but not Pete Carroll. I think Pete could take a flier on Uchenna and be willing to pay a bit more of a premium than any other team due to his potential value if healthy. That said, no one is in a better position to understand Uchenna's health the the Hawks. I would be inclined to cut ties with Uchenna if Mafe/Hall were a bit further along but they also employ a OLB by Committee so its hard to say. We'll find out soon enough but I wouldn't be surprised if he stays or, if not, ends up with Pete in the strip.
If Warren (not likely) and/or Loveland (more likely) are there at 1.18, they'd be tempting, depending on what else falls in their laps. If they draft a TE in the top 3 picks, I don't like Fant's chances of sticking. Blocking is not his forte.