I Remember Bill parcels saying you can expect to lose a game for every rookie you start...but we've started 5, two regularly starting. I think rookie wall could be real. It's a long season. Even vets could hit the wall...
Happy 2026 to everyone! I'm confident the Seahawks are a better team than the 49ers, but football is weird so I won't be surprised by any result. I'm hoping for a complete game from all three phases that leads to a big victory that sets the tone for a victory tour that ends with MM lifting the Lombardi!!
We really don't like to discuss officiating, but we are always wanting data and honest evaluations.
When the NFL pushed the battle for the NFC WEST and #1 seed between the top two NFC teams out of the Sunday night Primetime spot (and 1 less day's rest), to replace that game with two mediocre AFC North teams, I got to wondering what is going on. And then I thought, isn't this the SAME Pittsburgh team that stole Superbowl XL from us?
Which made me google "worst officiated games in NFL history", which among others, brought up Superbowl XL, Detroit's love of Pittsburgh and their mayor declaring Jerome Bettis week, in honor of his pending retirement, etc., how the NFL tossed their credibility out the window after the game by stating that they reviewed the game and that it was called correctly, only to later have Head Referee Bill Leavy say that it wasn't called correctly and that he "blew several calls that affected the outcome of the game."
Now interestingly enough, the next most-mentioned game was the Rams-New Orleans flagrant PI non-call. (I have always thought that the Rams were overrated that year, but they had just moved to LA from St. Louis and the NFL wanted the big-market machine going - new team, new stars, new stadium.) Big LA team vs. the only other team that seems to get the short end of things almost as often as we do in the NW.
Pittsburgh and California are involved in the two worst-officiated games in NFL history and BOTH are involved in bumping the NFC WEST showdown to Saturday.
We already KNOW who the best team is.
Should I worry about officiating?
Now I want to believe that the NFL really wants to go international, and they have to believe that the whole world is watching.
And I would hope that the integrity of the game would be the league's top priority.
But in the shadow of several years of suspicious officiating, bumping an obvious higher-priority game to showcase the good-ol'-boys' teams begs questions about the levelness of the playing field and would have to make any potential expansion teams wonder if they are destined to always be 'little brother' to the 'blue-blood' teams.
Thanks for bringing up the details surrounding that game, especially the Jerome Bettis influence. Still remember Holmgren saying,
"I didn't know we were going to have to play against the guys in the striped shirts as well."
All the influences both you and Chris mentioned are legit, plus advertising, as far as the time slot goes. It really all comes down to following the money.
Holmgren got fined because it raised awareness of the general populace of questions about standards and motives. Sports analysts have to tow the line.
Some calls could be mistakes, but not the number of them in one game or the Saints Rams non-PI call. There is no way that call was just a mistake! Some people still believe WWF wrestling is real.
I love the game of football, used to play in school and just have to overlook and hope that the team dominance is great enough to overcome outside influence.
Have to remember the Hail Mary to Golden Tate in the end zone. Also the recent call on the Charbonett 2 point conversion. Not that it wasn't legit, it was, but the fact that they even brought it up and looked at it. That pumped up the sensationalism, helped ratings, and gave time for a few more commercials. It goes both ways.
Debate is good. To accept their mistakes as "part of the game" is a most slippery slope, leading to all kinds of shenanigans. Young men enjoy banging on each other. It just IS who we are. Life on the surface of this planet is tough and often rude. No surprise we adapt. Football makes sport of that and most importantly- sets Rules. We learn to subdue our passions. Play by The Rules. Officiating is intended to impose penalties when the tone and tempers start getting dangerous. We are not on the field, hearing and seeing things up close. I give the Officials a lot of latitude in this. Some find their best self by playing. Some, officiating. It's not for everybody. So it is, the best rise to the top. It's a League problem that is still searching.
The playing field is not level. You've touched on some of the reasons why. There are ratings considerations, scheduling bias's, subjectivity in refereeing, sports betting influences, etc, etc. I still remember a couple of calls from Super Bowl XL, and they still piss me off. But, it's what we have, and hopefully it's fair enough that we can overcome anything that's put in front of us, if anything is put in front of us.
I'll probably post in the next comments also since it is kinda late here.
Something I have noticed about the games, in the earlier games Sam seemed to me to be throwing more to targets on the sidelines. In the recent games it seems to me he is throwing more into the middle of the field. For whatever it's worth.
Re turnovers, it’s unclear to me how serious the problem is. If you look at TO Differential:
+9 or better: 5 teams
-5 to +5: 21 teams (including Seattle and San Francisco)
-7 or worse: 6 teams
I picked chose these groupings to be at the first gap of more than one.
Anyway, there’s a certain amount of randomness here—a statistician could say how much. But I doubt there’s a significant statistical difference between -5 and +5.
A large positive difference helps: The Bears (+22, 11-5), Texans (+14, 11-5), Jaguars (+12, 12-4), and Rams (+9, 11-5) each have 11 or 12 wins. On the other hand, the 13-win teams—New England, Seattle, Denver—have differentials, respectively, of +1, -4, and -5. I’m guessing that the number of explosive plays can offset TOs, but that’s speculation.
The other stat that should be counted is 4th down stops. Those are as good as turnovers. Heck, the announcers even say, "The Seahawks forced a turnover on downs." Our D gets more of those than I remember others getting.
The Seahawks lead in the number of 4th down attempts against them. At 53.5% conversions allowed we are the 13th best team. If we were better stopping these other teams wouldn't try it so much against us.
Hey SJ been meaning to come on here. Read online. A local Whiners reporter type. Not Substack so probably more like the Seahawks on BR. Anyway, while not copying you, essentially preparing fans to lose. He stated a lot of the same things you’ve said. About their weak defense. Intensity of our defense. Quality play of SD and especially JSN. Don’t sleep on the RBs. Brought up how close Hawks came to winning week 1 with all their stud defenders. Unless they get TOs (or more like SD turns it over) “don’t be surprised Seahawks win. But at least get Carolina or TB. Well done beating the competition!
I’m with you on turnovers. It’s amazing what this team has accomplished given that are just about the worst at turning the ball over. The Seahawks defense is 2nd in scoring defense. Just go back and think how many short field TDs opponents have scored due to turnovers inside our own 50. This defense would be number 1 and it wouldn’t even be close. Tampa Bay and the 2nd Rams game were the only games the defense did not step up. Although the defense did step up in the 4th quarter of the Rams game with 3 straight 3 and outs enabling the offense to overcome the 16 point deficit. If the Hawks offense can get going on their first or second drive and score a first quarter TD, the game might not even be close. I think JSN has a very big day - 150+ yards. I think Kupp has his swan song big day. With a TD and a couple of 3rd down catches. I think Charbs has another big game. I think the defense has an early 1st quarter safety score if they begin a drive inside their own 5 yard line. Go Hawks!
I said his first game back. Murphy and Big Cat. JReed and Mills. Platoon and spell each other. Basically no drop off (Williams off the field does see a little less flexibility as he can drop off the line the other 3 can’t). And just in time for playoffs. Morris not much but he played more because no Hall. Hall is back. Four big and strong and quick DTs, going mess with less than stellar Olines.
Mike owns his locker room by seriously protecting 'his guys' from injury. With him, there is always "next year" and they appreciate a Coach who's intention is to prolong their career as long as possible. Injury is the vehicle to unleash his Ready Room guys and they play so long as they prove themselves valuable. So be ready... It covers Starters from returning at less than 100%. We watched McC go to the sidelines and get work done on his back last week. It tells his back-up that Christian at 60% is still better than you'll ever be. We watched McC throw himself against walls 2 years ago when they got to the Super Bowl. Last year he spent on IR as a result. Mike won't do that and should he exhaust all options, every man-jack of this Team will go to the wall for him. Demand it. We show the entire League the Seahawks have their priorities straight. Who wouldn't want to come here?
It's a healthy response to the cold corporatism sold to us over generations. Throwing people away never fit among people I know. We succeed by maximizing personal potential. Buy local. Know your neighbors. Maybe learn to love them. Sports touches these themes. Our Football especially extols them. Hellyeah! I'm all in. Thanx, Mr. Charley!
Some numbers I had ChatGPT run that I think lends to this convo. These are the top ten teams by win percentage against other playoff teams (if it ended today with Panthers & Steelers).
Takeaways are that most of the league has losing records against playoff teams. And that maybe Seattle is kinda good. Especially considering our only loses are to divisional opponents.
It also may add credibility to NFC West is actually pretty good this year (only other teams with a non-losing record are Bills & Eagles).
I'm really looking to see what this young man is bringing. I do see what attracted JS. His late appearance could not have come at a better time. Providence?
Take away what they like to do best, and make them beat you with their secondary stuff. Sounds easy, but it will be a challenge for sure. Shanahan's a smart sob.
I hear you Danno. I'm 78 and a former pro. I woke up this morning with a worse hangover after a glass of prosecco at home than I had 25 years ago after an all-night bender.
the league now has 16 games on zabel to know what he struggles with and go after it.
I Remember Bill parcels saying you can expect to lose a game for every rookie you start...but we've started 5, two regularly starting. I think rookie wall could be real. It's a long season. Even vets could hit the wall...
Happy 2026 to everyone! I'm confident the Seahawks are a better team than the 49ers, but football is weird so I won't be surprised by any result. I'm hoping for a complete game from all three phases that leads to a big victory that sets the tone for a victory tour that ends with MM lifting the Lombardi!!
We really don't like to discuss officiating, but we are always wanting data and honest evaluations.
When the NFL pushed the battle for the NFC WEST and #1 seed between the top two NFC teams out of the Sunday night Primetime spot (and 1 less day's rest), to replace that game with two mediocre AFC North teams, I got to wondering what is going on. And then I thought, isn't this the SAME Pittsburgh team that stole Superbowl XL from us?
Which made me google "worst officiated games in NFL history", which among others, brought up Superbowl XL, Detroit's love of Pittsburgh and their mayor declaring Jerome Bettis week, in honor of his pending retirement, etc., how the NFL tossed their credibility out the window after the game by stating that they reviewed the game and that it was called correctly, only to later have Head Referee Bill Leavy say that it wasn't called correctly and that he "blew several calls that affected the outcome of the game."
Now interestingly enough, the next most-mentioned game was the Rams-New Orleans flagrant PI non-call. (I have always thought that the Rams were overrated that year, but they had just moved to LA from St. Louis and the NFL wanted the big-market machine going - new team, new stars, new stadium.) Big LA team vs. the only other team that seems to get the short end of things almost as often as we do in the NW.
Pittsburgh and California are involved in the two worst-officiated games in NFL history and BOTH are involved in bumping the NFC WEST showdown to Saturday.
We already KNOW who the best team is.
Should I worry about officiating?
Now I want to believe that the NFL really wants to go international, and they have to believe that the whole world is watching.
And I would hope that the integrity of the game would be the league's top priority.
But in the shadow of several years of suspicious officiating, bumping an obvious higher-priority game to showcase the good-ol'-boys' teams begs questions about the levelness of the playing field and would have to make any potential expansion teams wonder if they are destined to always be 'little brother' to the 'blue-blood' teams.
Thanks for bringing up the details surrounding that game, especially the Jerome Bettis influence. Still remember Holmgren saying,
"I didn't know we were going to have to play against the guys in the striped shirts as well."
All the influences both you and Chris mentioned are legit, plus advertising, as far as the time slot goes. It really all comes down to following the money.
Holmgren got fined because it raised awareness of the general populace of questions about standards and motives. Sports analysts have to tow the line.
Some calls could be mistakes, but not the number of them in one game or the Saints Rams non-PI call. There is no way that call was just a mistake! Some people still believe WWF wrestling is real.
I love the game of football, used to play in school and just have to overlook and hope that the team dominance is great enough to overcome outside influence.
Have to remember the Hail Mary to Golden Tate in the end zone. Also the recent call on the Charbonett 2 point conversion. Not that it wasn't legit, it was, but the fact that they even brought it up and looked at it. That pumped up the sensationalism, helped ratings, and gave time for a few more commercials. It goes both ways.
Debate is good. To accept their mistakes as "part of the game" is a most slippery slope, leading to all kinds of shenanigans. Young men enjoy banging on each other. It just IS who we are. Life on the surface of this planet is tough and often rude. No surprise we adapt. Football makes sport of that and most importantly- sets Rules. We learn to subdue our passions. Play by The Rules. Officiating is intended to impose penalties when the tone and tempers start getting dangerous. We are not on the field, hearing and seeing things up close. I give the Officials a lot of latitude in this. Some find their best self by playing. Some, officiating. It's not for everybody. So it is, the best rise to the top. It's a League problem that is still searching.
The playing field is not level. You've touched on some of the reasons why. There are ratings considerations, scheduling bias's, subjectivity in refereeing, sports betting influences, etc, etc. I still remember a couple of calls from Super Bowl XL, and they still piss me off. But, it's what we have, and hopefully it's fair enough that we can overcome anything that's put in front of us, if anything is put in front of us.
A really good breakdown of the Hawks:
The Truth About Sam Darnold’s Picks—and a Theory for Why He’s Better Loose
https://www.fieldgulls.com/post/2v9zl66irH2A
I'll probably post in the next comments also since it is kinda late here.
Something I have noticed about the games, in the earlier games Sam seemed to me to be throwing more to targets on the sidelines. In the recent games it seems to me he is throwing more into the middle of the field. For whatever it's worth.
Nice article highlight/ repost. It is a post that seems to be very pragmatic.
Re turnovers, it’s unclear to me how serious the problem is. If you look at TO Differential:
+9 or better: 5 teams
-5 to +5: 21 teams (including Seattle and San Francisco)
-7 or worse: 6 teams
I picked chose these groupings to be at the first gap of more than one.
Anyway, there’s a certain amount of randomness here—a statistician could say how much. But I doubt there’s a significant statistical difference between -5 and +5.
A large positive difference helps: The Bears (+22, 11-5), Texans (+14, 11-5), Jaguars (+12, 12-4), and Rams (+9, 11-5) each have 11 or 12 wins. On the other hand, the 13-win teams—New England, Seattle, Denver—have differentials, respectively, of +1, -4, and -5. I’m guessing that the number of explosive plays can offset TOs, but that’s speculation.
The other stat that should be counted is 4th down stops. Those are as good as turnovers. Heck, the announcers even say, "The Seahawks forced a turnover on downs." Our D gets more of those than I remember others getting.
Great point—thanks for the reminder.
Here is a link to that stat.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2025/opp.htm#team_conversions::8
The Seahawks lead in the number of 4th down attempts against them. At 53.5% conversions allowed we are the 13th best team. If we were better stopping these other teams wouldn't try it so much against us.
Food for thought, Paul.
Hey SJ been meaning to come on here. Read online. A local Whiners reporter type. Not Substack so probably more like the Seahawks on BR. Anyway, while not copying you, essentially preparing fans to lose. He stated a lot of the same things you’ve said. About their weak defense. Intensity of our defense. Quality play of SD and especially JSN. Don’t sleep on the RBs. Brought up how close Hawks came to winning week 1 with all their stud defenders. Unless they get TOs (or more like SD turns it over) “don’t be surprised Seahawks win. But at least get Carolina or TB. Well done beating the competition!
I’m with you on turnovers. It’s amazing what this team has accomplished given that are just about the worst at turning the ball over. The Seahawks defense is 2nd in scoring defense. Just go back and think how many short field TDs opponents have scored due to turnovers inside our own 50. This defense would be number 1 and it wouldn’t even be close. Tampa Bay and the 2nd Rams game were the only games the defense did not step up. Although the defense did step up in the 4th quarter of the Rams game with 3 straight 3 and outs enabling the offense to overcome the 16 point deficit. If the Hawks offense can get going on their first or second drive and score a first quarter TD, the game might not even be close. I think JSN has a very big day - 150+ yards. I think Kupp has his swan song big day. With a TD and a couple of 3rd down catches. I think Charbs has another big game. I think the defense has an early 1st quarter safety score if they begin a drive inside their own 5 yard line. Go Hawks!
May it be a great start to 2026!!!!
Indeed!
Seahawks beat Rams… I can’t stop thinking about that game.
Seahawks beat Panthers… I can’t stop thinking about the upcoming game.
Best division since 2024 :) :) :)
How quickly I forget when they lose all the games that matter at the end of the year. Best division ever really does need a post-season context.
Things you should know about. For the next game and post-season.
In the last game R Mills had 12 snaps, 23%. Mike Morris had 9.
PFF, fwiw, rated his last game 68.4.
When he was at Notre Dame he was exposed to post-season play.
I said his first game back. Murphy and Big Cat. JReed and Mills. Platoon and spell each other. Basically no drop off (Williams off the field does see a little less flexibility as he can drop off the line the other 3 can’t). And just in time for playoffs. Morris not much but he played more because no Hall. Hall is back. Four big and strong and quick DTs, going mess with less than stellar Olines.
Mike owns his locker room by seriously protecting 'his guys' from injury. With him, there is always "next year" and they appreciate a Coach who's intention is to prolong their career as long as possible. Injury is the vehicle to unleash his Ready Room guys and they play so long as they prove themselves valuable. So be ready... It covers Starters from returning at less than 100%. We watched McC go to the sidelines and get work done on his back last week. It tells his back-up that Christian at 60% is still better than you'll ever be. We watched McC throw himself against walls 2 years ago when they got to the Super Bowl. Last year he spent on IR as a result. Mike won't do that and should he exhaust all options, every man-jack of this Team will go to the wall for him. Demand it. We show the entire League the Seahawks have their priorities straight. Who wouldn't want to come here?
Great Point, Jimmy.
We All We Got ! We All We Need !
Not just the Players but with the Coaches 'n Staff.
It's a healthy response to the cold corporatism sold to us over generations. Throwing people away never fit among people I know. We succeed by maximizing personal potential. Buy local. Know your neighbors. Maybe learn to love them. Sports touches these themes. Our Football especially extols them. Hellyeah! I'm all in. Thanx, Mr. Charley!
Perhaps Mad Max Crosby would like to play here since he is (it seems) not that happy in Vegas. But not for two firsts. No way.
Some numbers I had ChatGPT run that I think lends to this convo. These are the top ten teams by win percentage against other playoff teams (if it ended today with Panthers & Steelers).
Takeaways are that most of the league has losing records against playoff teams. And that maybe Seattle is kinda good. Especially considering our only loses are to divisional opponents.
It also may add credibility to NFC West is actually pretty good this year (only other teams with a non-losing record are Bills & Eagles).
Team Win % Games Played
Seahawks 0.714 7
Jaguars 0.625 8
Bears 0.6 5
Broncos 0.6 5
Chargers 0.6 5
49ers. 0.571 7
Rams 0.5 8
Texans 0.5 8
Bills 0.5 6
Not quite following what you are saying here, Beez.
Sorry for the poor formatting.
If anyone knows a website that calculates this, please share. I don’t trust ChatGPT.
Looks close
This is funny.
https://www.fieldgulls.com/post/bIFS06_bDs87
Julian Love went to Notre Dame, the new Pope might be a football fan. Perhaps he will add “Go Hawks!” To his sermon.
Rylie Mills went to ND also.
I'm really looking to see what this young man is bringing. I do see what attracted JS. His late appearance could not have come at a better time. Providence?
We should have him bless some footballs 🏈 🏈🏈🏈🏈
Yeah, but he’s from Chicago…
South Bend and Chicago are almost in the same area code.
Al Capone territory.
Yeah, but he’s presumably a Bears fan…
Yeah, I just hope we end with 14 wins…
I want 17 wins ;)
Ernest Jones is the biggest threat.
Close 2nd is CMC's back injury.
Take away what they like to do best, and make them beat you with their secondary stuff. Sounds easy, but it will be a challenge for sure. Shanahan's a smart sob.
Happy New Year everyone! Stay safe tonight.
I don’t go out on amateur nights (NYE and St Pats Day) Even though I’m an amateur.
I hear you Danno. I'm 78 and a former pro. I woke up this morning with a worse hangover after a glass of prosecco at home than I had 25 years ago after an all-night bender.
Yawn/Stretch. Count me out...