3 non-negotiables the Seahawks must have against the Patriots

If the Seahawks don't protect the ball and stop the Patriots run game, they could be in trouble in New England: Seaside Joe 2021

You couldn’t be subscribed to Seaside Joe: An extremely daily Seahawks newsletter without being aware of how integral non-negotiable habits are to this website and this author. The content of Seaside Joe is, was, and will always be the Seattle Seahawks (which is more than I can say for 99% of “Seahawks twitter accounts”) but the unignorable context of Seaside Joe is that this newsletter has been published for 2,021 days in a row as of today.

You get this newsletter everyday, whether you actually open it and read it or if it goes directly into a “social tab” of your inbox that you haven’t actually checked for months like a lot of the newsletters that I subscribe to end up, so you know how committed I am to my non-negotiable habits. There’s this one—my public facing proof of diligence—and then there are about 20 others that you never see but can trust that I do complete because this newsletter is by far the most taxing of any non-negotiable and yet there hasn’t been a day off since we started on March 3, 2019.

It is therefore long overdue for me to have a weekly series about the Seahawks that is themed around non-negotiables. I’ll choose three “non-negotiable” things that the Seattle Seahawks must execute in their next game in order to win…or lapse in their commitments and risk a loss.

You will notice that Seaside Joe is going to be far more scheduled and structured this season, with the goal being to have certain expectations of which articles you’re going to receive on certain days, of course given whether or not the Seahawks are playing on Sunday, Monday, or Thursday. But for Sunday weeks, you’re going to see the Vision Board on Saturday, the Hot/Medium/Mild reactions on Sunday after the game, “Debunked Rumors” on Monday as a recap of what we did and did not expect to happen in the game, and a “Question Everything” mailbag post with questions provided by Seaside Joe’s “Super Joes” subscribers at the founding member level of $120 per year. Be subscribed to the newsletter to not miss any of the non-negotiable daily articles about your absolute favorite NFL team:

Then on Thursdays, we can talk about some of the non-negotiables that the Seahawks need for their next contest based on what we’ve seen that’s worked and hasn’t worked, as well as what’s working and not working for their opponents.

This week, that opponent is the 1-0 New England Patriots, coming off of an upset 16-10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals and certain to bring the same brand of offense and defense that worked for 20 years with Bill Belichick. These are 3 non-negotiables that Mike Macdonald, Geno Smith, and Ryan Grubb must stick to in order to beat the Patriots and keep their perfect record in tact.

If you know of Seahawks fans who might like Seaside Joe, tell them!

Seahawks must play offense for longer than 15 minutes this time

I don’t know how your brain works, but mine usually seems to think that a game is only its final result and forgets how the Seahawks ended up beating the Broncos 26-20. It’s all about the sum and nothing about the parts. That’s why it is IMPERATIVE that I review and re-review every game to be sure that I am going off of what happened minute-to-minute and not just week-to-week.

Once I went back and looked at the Week 1 box score, I was reminded of just how terrible Seattle’s offense was for 45 of the 60 minutes against Denver’s defense:

The Seahawks first three drives totaled -3 yards, two punts, and one turnover. Seattle then settled for a field goal after having a 1st-and-10 at Denver’s 35 (completion 0 yards, run 3 yards, incompletion). Then came the safety on Anthony Bradford’s holding penalty in the end zone, essentially meaning that the Seahawks first five drives were worth a total of +1 point, but it is more accurate to say -2 points because Geno’s interception netted a 35-yard field goal for the Broncos.

Geno Smith brought the Seahawks back to take a 9-8 lead in the middle of the second quarter (Next Gen Stats cited Geno’s 34-yard scramble as the seventh-most remarkable run of Week 1 because he got 22 rushing yards over expected), but then Seattle ended the half with another safety and another three-and-out, gaining a total of 0 yards. By punting the ball back to Denver with :31 seconds left in the half, the Seahawks still gave up a 45-yard field goal as the half expired.

On Thursday, Geno told the media that the team has focused all week on getting off to a better start:

“Obviously we’d like to start a lot better and that’s been the emphasis all week is starting fast and sustaining it throughout the entire game. (On how to do that) Not making mistakes, not having self-inflicted wounds, penalties and turnovers.”

Though I still expect the Broncos to have one of the worst offenses in the league this year, Seattle’s defense still pitched shutout-level football and in a way I think the Seahawks offense is responsible or partly-responsible for every point that Denver scored. Even the Broncos touchdown drive at the end of the game started at midfield; the Seahawks defense didn’t give up a single drive longer than 54 yards and 13 of 15 drives were under 30 yards.

Essentially everything the Seahawks offense contributed happened on the first three drives of the second half. Even then, Seattle’s second drive of the third quarter had first-and-Goal from the 6 but settled for a field goal after the holding penalty was called on DK Metcalf during Kenneth Walker’s touchdown run.

We saw the inconsistent version of the Seahawks offense too often in 2023, whether they would start fast and stall for the rest of the game, or start slow and then produce too little, too late.

Ryan Grubb’s non-negotiable this week has to be an opening drive touchdown against the Patriots and avoiding drive killers like penalties, turnovers, and I’ll just throw this out there in case we forgot, not gifting the other team 4 points on safeties.

Adjustments: Kenneth Walker’s status

Anybody who uses daily non-negotiables will tell you that even if the habits stay the same, the days don’t: I often have to plan ahead and work around obstacles that could interfere with my habits, but in 5.5 years I have never once missed a non-negotiable daily habit. I have always had a plan and a backup plan.

The Seahawks leaned on Walker to get going against the Broncos in the second half, but Walker’s been questionable this week due to an abdominable industry (oblique strain). Walker missed 2 games last year with an oblique strain, so there’s a chance that Zach Charbonnet gets the start and Kenny McIntosh is upgraded to backup. Seattle must forge ahead regardless and though Charbonnet is less explosive than Walker, he has the tools to be a starter and the Seahawks still have 5 or 6 other good weapons to utilize aside from the running game if the run game struggles.

Seahawks must contain Rhamondre Stevenson

New New England head coach Jerod Mayo is a Bill Belichick player and a Bill Belichick assistant, so I don’t think we’re going to get a much different version of the Patriots than from the past. If the Pats still had Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker, they’d pass the ball more. The Pats have Jacoby Brissett and Tyquan Thornton though, so they’re going to run the ball more.

Stevenson had 120 rushing yards (his highest total since December, 2022) against the Bengals last week, but he did fumble once. In the Belichick podcast this week, the phrase “ball security is job security” came up and the coach added, “Rhamondre Stevenson has heard that phrase a thousand times.”

Then Matt Patricia added: “Ball security and run north and south, those are the two things we finally got Rhamondre going on.”

Well, I don’t know if it’s clear to Stevenson yet that he needs to protect the football, but the running was working in Week 1 against the Bengals. Stevenson had three runs over 10 yards, including 14 yards on his first carry of the game.

I know that the Seahawks stuffed Denver’s two running backs in Week 1, but I’m not sure how they’re going to hold up for the next 16 games. Nobody knows. I do think, however, that Stevenson is a better running back than anyone on the Broncos and I’m curious to find out how offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, formerly Nick Chubb’s OC in Cleveland, is able to help an offense with no passing threats (unless Drake Maye emerges this year) manage to move the ball on the ground this season.

Adjustments: Fewer missed tackles

The Seahawks didn’t pay for their missed tackles in Week 1 because there were always 3, 4, 5 Seahawks around the ball on every play, it seemed. That gang-tackle-attack mentality wasn’t on Seattle’s defense in 2023, so those missed tackles were far more apparent. But just because the Seahawks were able to clean up someone else’s missed tackle last week, it doesn’t mean that Mike Macdonald is okay with the missed tackles either.

The Seahawks had some perfect form tackles in Week 1, but they need to be more consistent and have fewer guys falling off of ball carriers because Stevenson is one of the toughest players in the NFL to bring down.

The Seahawks can’t have any turnovers

An interception in the first drive? Yeah, that’s a turnover. A muffed punt? That’s a turnover. A missed field goal? You know, it’s as bad as a turnover. A third or fourth down stop that doesn’t matter because of a defensive holding penalty or a roughing the passer? That’s a turnover in my book! And two safeties given up from your end zone? That’s obviously a TURNOVER.

The Seahawks had two traditional turnovers in Week 1, but two safeties should count for two more turnovers. (That’s actually kind of crazy that a safety isn’t an official turnover: You had the ball and now you’re punting it to the other team after giving them points.)

Seattle’s 26-20 final score victory should have been something more like 30-10, if not for turnovers. If the Broncos didn’t have three turnovers of their own, then they probably do beat the Seahawks in Week 1.

In New England, the Seahawks can’t afford interceptions, fumbles, and penalties that either kill an offensive drive or keep the defense on the field after they get a stop or they will lose and help the Patriots get off to the most unlikely 2-0 start of any team this season. A year ago, the almighty Bills went to New England and lost 29-25 in part because Josh Allen threw an interception on the first drive that gifted the Pats a short field, then later missed a 42-yard field goal, then turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter.

Rarely will you win games in the NFL after gifting points and short fields to the other team, no matter how bad they look every other week. The 4-13 Patriots beat the 11-6 Bills because of turnovers. The way Seattle played in Week 1 will never be good enough to beat the Patriots in New England in Week 2.

Adjustments: Be better on special teams

Jason Myers was perfect in Week 1, so he just needs to continue being perfect. But Dee Williams can’t muff a punt and Seattle also needs to be able to bring that ball back so they aren’t starting at their own end zone. A perfect punt by the other team is what it is, but the return units could have been better as a whole.

I also think Michael Dickson needs to be better. We’ll get into it more when I do the special teams “close your eyes” test scores, but Dickson is the highest-paid punter in the NFL even though I know there are more dominant punters lately. If the Seahawks can do some pinning-back of their own, that can sometimes be as good as a turnover, whereas giving up good field position is as bad as a turnover.

Obviously Geno Smith (7 turnovers in 7 road games last season, the Seahawks were 0-3 when Geno threw an interception on the road) must protect the ball too, and Jacoby Brissett isn’t going to give up two gifts to the defense like Bo Nix did to offset any mistakes. But if the Seahawks can have a clean day on special teams and win the field position/turnover battle, they’re going to increase their odds of winning exponentially.

What are your non-negotiables?