- Kenny McIntosh's score always catches my eye because it's under a 2.0 and yet I understand why he has fans. Why some people would think he's more valuable than that. But that's why I also really like the Close Your Eyes test: Kenny McIntosh is a 7th round running back who is in his second season but has not played a single offensive snap in his career to this point. He's basically the definitino of a replaceable player, but he has fans because of some explosive plays in practice and preseason games and he's a "fantasy" football player if he ever gets touches. So I can like McIntosh as much as you, but his value without a single career rep, is nothing. He could still be replaced by George Holani at any moment.
This is a very fair ranking of player *value* as the season begins. The biggest factor holding down the class of 22/23 and 24 is experience which they are getting now. JSN will be top 5 by the end of the season. If Abe Lucas doesn’t make it back he will be on the bottom of the list.
The list will sort itself through the end of the season.
If I recall properly (and often enough I don’t), your player ratings have an individual/historical basis or context, and not a current or relative team value factor built in. So the team value measure is going to be off, though not by all that much. Like most statistics you can massage them into something that looks more like reality.
Right. Only current to two games. I also included relative value in my post, which is even more subjective, since it probably includes estimates of future value.
Agree on Fant. He just doesn't seem to fit here. No extra effort. No gambles to make a catch or extend to a first down. My whole season logic centers around Mack getting us better every week. Making unseen surprise adjustments on Defense with Grubb doing the same on Offense, always tailored to the particular skills of this week's opponent. Our Trench Men are finding their timing/ways to augment help to young guys. Nobody is being physically embarrassed. Connor Williams is finding his fit, along with confidence in his healing. We have yet to see much, if any, attention given to proven Ballers like Bobo or Shenault. I look forward to our new TEs and RBs. Minimal risks taken toward interceptions. All of this has yet to fully form.
I appreciate you calling yourself out when you were wrong on something, even if most of us have long forgotten you had that opinion. If I ever read through my own, I'm sure it would be a chuckle-fest of being high and low on the wrong people. I'm sure I have old posts on here blaming Waldron for Noah Fant's lack of production. Turns out, it might have just been Fant isn't that good of a football player.
Fant is certainly underperforming. However, he is a sunk cost. What can we do? Maybe trade him for a pick to someone who see the potential? Sign me up.
I think he would bring less on the open market than Olu at this point. It's a shame we didn't do better with our player selection in the Wilson to Denver trade. But at least the draft picks are looking great.
It was a negotiation, after all. All we could do was get back players they were willing to part with on some level. I don't know of any other guys from their roster they would realistically have let go of that I would go back and take. So, we got some guys who had flashed a bit and had potential. JS got the best offer for Russ he could. If we got nothing but rid of him and his contract demands, it would have been addition by subtraction, so any fliers and long looks at any guys were just gravy, IMHO.
I think both AJ Barner and Derick Hall have increased their stock through the first 2 weeks, primarily due to opportunity with starts injured ahead of them. Barner is similar to Knight, in that any playing time is good playing time and he's at least blocking well (I think). Hall has been better than Jones and has earned more snaps for it (or maybe it's just game planning for different opponents). The return of Nwosu will be an interesting dynamic.
I’m with you on Fant. Guy is smooth as silk out there, looks fantastic, but that’s all — doesn’t seem to be a playmaker. Doesn’t seem to be a competitor. Hard to believe he’s an Iowa TE. Crying shame he can’t be motivated to deliver against his talent. Very very disappointed with him.
Good list- Although Cross should be higher- Two great articles recently (one a podcast/interview) with Ray Roberts on Brock and Salk stating that Cross has the Highest rating in the league currently at LT and Ray stated he see's nothing but continued great play from him ( No sacks and I believe only one true pressure allowed by him so far). Along with that a very good article by John Boyle on Connor Williams ( CW stating he has much room to improve, partly getting such a late start) But the very interesting thing was CW saying how the O-line needs to play together and learn each other to become good! YES, that is what it takes, along with maybe some just better guards (LT needs to get it together)- sounds like the rookie will be getting more playing time at RG so we shall see how it goes. But I do believe as the season progresses the O-line will get better.
Agree to the 1000th power! It’s not a matter of overdrafting and overpaying guards, it’s about investing in continuity. Schneider’s short-sightedness re this point is what leads to drafting a backup RB (Charbonnet) over a plug-and-play guard (Torrence). Think of how much more settled the OL would be if the concerns were how long Williams would need to settle in and a competition at RG.
To be fair, he’s not the only GM who thinks that an adequate IOL can be built with Day 3 picks and value FA signings. But this hasn’t worked and he seems resistant to trying a different approach.
As you stated, these are base value rankings by the numbers, we still have the "close your eyes" test to apply, and "stock up, stock down"s as we go through the year. Also, contract and positional value go into each players number, and I think those are things we don't think of when seeing our favorite team play. We have to go back and consider those things layered on top of the game performances we see.
I agree with all of your stock ups and downs you listed. I think a guy who should possibly be listed as "stock up" is Tyrel Dodson. He has had 2 games of fast play and has been more physical than I remember him being in Buffalo. He has the potential to be a difference maker in the middle if he keeps playing well.
I read an article today quoting DK that stated he thinks our position players will have rotational breakout games. I do think we banked on a new OC to help unlock Fant and at this point if he had one monster game it might help ease the sting of our “pretty faced extra” just running around out there doing a whole lot of nothing.
There is so much evolution on this team right now, it is difficult to assign value until we get further into the season. As has been pointed out already, Cross is a great example. As is Hall. Dodson and Baker I think will have far greater value than what was perceived before we even saw them play. Personally, I think Woolen has been lights out. He's not used in as many ways as Spoon, but as far as a lock down corner goes, he's all of that and a bag of chips so far.......but, only 2 games.
After the Detroit game would be a good time to take stock. That will be a great gut-check game.
Dodson is quickly becoming one of my favorite press conferences. The guy is ridiculously likeable. And he's a solid LB as well, and hopefully will get even better as he settles into this defense.
Re Tomlinson, Ray Roberts says that LT is getting beaten by moves no veteran should fall for, which speaks to a lack of focus. I have to wonder whether his heart is in it. Roberts also points out that the preseason LG/RG pairing of Haynes and Bradford did okay, and that Bradford’s chief issue is consistency. Meanwhile on Brock & Salk, MM made encouraging remarks about Haynes and Bradford but didn’t mention Tomlinson at all. Together, this makes me wonder whether the staff will migrate to Haynes/Bradford as starters.
SEA MORE COMMENTS:
- Kenny McIntosh's score always catches my eye because it's under a 2.0 and yet I understand why he has fans. Why some people would think he's more valuable than that. But that's why I also really like the Close Your Eyes test: Kenny McIntosh is a 7th round running back who is in his second season but has not played a single offensive snap in his career to this point. He's basically the definitino of a replaceable player, but he has fans because of some explosive plays in practice and preseason games and he's a "fantasy" football player if he ever gets touches. So I can like McIntosh as much as you, but his value without a single career rep, is nothing. He could still be replaced by George Holani at any moment.
This is a very fair ranking of player *value* as the season begins. The biggest factor holding down the class of 22/23 and 24 is experience which they are getting now. JSN will be top 5 by the end of the season. If Abe Lucas doesn’t make it back he will be on the bottom of the list.
The list will sort itself through the end of the season.
If I recall properly (and often enough I don’t), your player ratings have an individual/historical basis or context, and not a current or relative team value factor built in. So the team value measure is going to be off, though not by all that much. Like most statistics you can massage them into something that looks more like reality.
How current can they be after only 2 games? Just trying to understand.
Right. Only current to two games. I also included relative value in my post, which is even more subjective, since it probably includes estimates of future value.
I’m hoping to see both Brown and Russell take a few snaps from Fant.
Or moar Bobo. I'd love to see Bobo play some H-back.
Agree on Fant. He just doesn't seem to fit here. No extra effort. No gambles to make a catch or extend to a first down. My whole season logic centers around Mack getting us better every week. Making unseen surprise adjustments on Defense with Grubb doing the same on Offense, always tailored to the particular skills of this week's opponent. Our Trench Men are finding their timing/ways to augment help to young guys. Nobody is being physically embarrassed. Connor Williams is finding his fit, along with confidence in his healing. We have yet to see much, if any, attention given to proven Ballers like Bobo or Shenault. I look forward to our new TEs and RBs. Minimal risks taken toward interceptions. All of this has yet to fully form.
Lockett rank is to low. They should trade Jones and Fant in a package deal for a good guard !
I appreciate you calling yourself out when you were wrong on something, even if most of us have long forgotten you had that opinion. If I ever read through my own, I'm sure it would be a chuckle-fest of being high and low on the wrong people. I'm sure I have old posts on here blaming Waldron for Noah Fant's lack of production. Turns out, it might have just been Fant isn't that good of a football player.
Fant is certainly underperforming. However, he is a sunk cost. What can we do? Maybe trade him for a pick to someone who see the potential? Sign me up.
I think he would bring less on the open market than Olu at this point. It's a shame we didn't do better with our player selection in the Wilson to Denver trade. But at least the draft picks are looking great.
Olu was a healthy scratch last week. Not good,
He can't play as many positions as Sundell.
It was a negotiation, after all. All we could do was get back players they were willing to part with on some level. I don't know of any other guys from their roster they would realistically have let go of that I would go back and take. So, we got some guys who had flashed a bit and had potential. JS got the best offer for Russ he could. If we got nothing but rid of him and his contract demands, it would have been addition by subtraction, so any fliers and long looks at any guys were just gravy, IMHO.
I think both AJ Barner and Derick Hall have increased their stock through the first 2 weeks, primarily due to opportunity with starts injured ahead of them. Barner is similar to Knight, in that any playing time is good playing time and he's at least blocking well (I think). Hall has been better than Jones and has earned more snaps for it (or maybe it's just game planning for different opponents). The return of Nwosu will be an interesting dynamic.
I’m with you on Fant. Guy is smooth as silk out there, looks fantastic, but that’s all — doesn’t seem to be a playmaker. Doesn’t seem to be a competitor. Hard to believe he’s an Iowa TE. Crying shame he can’t be motivated to deliver against his talent. Very very disappointed with him.
Good list- Although Cross should be higher- Two great articles recently (one a podcast/interview) with Ray Roberts on Brock and Salk stating that Cross has the Highest rating in the league currently at LT and Ray stated he see's nothing but continued great play from him ( No sacks and I believe only one true pressure allowed by him so far). Along with that a very good article by John Boyle on Connor Williams ( CW stating he has much room to improve, partly getting such a late start) But the very interesting thing was CW saying how the O-line needs to play together and learn each other to become good! YES, that is what it takes, along with maybe some just better guards (LT needs to get it together)- sounds like the rookie will be getting more playing time at RG so we shall see how it goes. But I do believe as the season progresses the O-line will get better.
I think continuity is the secret sauce for a truly effective offensive line.
Agree to the 1000th power! It’s not a matter of overdrafting and overpaying guards, it’s about investing in continuity. Schneider’s short-sightedness re this point is what leads to drafting a backup RB (Charbonnet) over a plug-and-play guard (Torrence). Think of how much more settled the OL would be if the concerns were how long Williams would need to settle in and a competition at RG.
To be fair, he’s not the only GM who thinks that an adequate IOL can be built with Day 3 picks and value FA signings. But this hasn’t worked and he seems resistant to trying a different approach.
As you stated, these are base value rankings by the numbers, we still have the "close your eyes" test to apply, and "stock up, stock down"s as we go through the year. Also, contract and positional value go into each players number, and I think those are things we don't think of when seeing our favorite team play. We have to go back and consider those things layered on top of the game performances we see.
I agree with all of your stock ups and downs you listed. I think a guy who should possibly be listed as "stock up" is Tyrel Dodson. He has had 2 games of fast play and has been more physical than I remember him being in Buffalo. He has the potential to be a difference maker in the middle if he keeps playing well.
I read an article today quoting DK that stated he thinks our position players will have rotational breakout games. I do think we banked on a new OC to help unlock Fant and at this point if he had one monster game it might help ease the sting of our “pretty faced extra” just running around out there doing a whole lot of nothing.
There is so much evolution on this team right now, it is difficult to assign value until we get further into the season. As has been pointed out already, Cross is a great example. As is Hall. Dodson and Baker I think will have far greater value than what was perceived before we even saw them play. Personally, I think Woolen has been lights out. He's not used in as many ways as Spoon, but as far as a lock down corner goes, he's all of that and a bag of chips so far.......but, only 2 games.
After the Detroit game would be a good time to take stock. That will be a great gut-check game.
Dodson is quickly becoming one of my favorite press conferences. The guy is ridiculously likeable. And he's a solid LB as well, and hopefully will get even better as he settles into this defense.
Can we time travel and do values for the Super Bowl team? There’d be so many players in the 4 range and maybe even a 5???
Re Tomlinson, Ray Roberts says that LT is getting beaten by moves no veteran should fall for, which speaks to a lack of focus. I have to wonder whether his heart is in it. Roberts also points out that the preseason LG/RG pairing of Haynes and Bradford did okay, and that Bradford’s chief issue is consistency. Meanwhile on Brock & Salk, MM made encouraging remarks about Haynes and Bradford but didn’t mention Tomlinson at all. Together, this makes me wonder whether the staff will migrate to Haynes/Bradford as starters.