The Seahawks have 3 straight trap games coming up

Seahawks playoff odds, Next Gen Stats for Geno Smith's best game

The Seahawks have better odds to make the playoffs if they finish 9-8 with a win over the Rams than if they go 10-7 and lose to the Rams. Let’s talk about what else the Seahawks can do and can’t do over the last four weeks of the season.

The Seahawks can’t:

• Get the #1 seed

• Get the #2 seed

Barring the nearly impossible, the Seahawks won’t catch the 11-2 Eagles and they literally can’t catch the 12-1 Lions. Even if both teams were 12-5, Detroit has the head-to-head advantage; and if the Lions lost their last four, surely the 11-2 Vikings won the division and a 13-4 or better record would be implied.

The Seahawks can:

• Win the NFC West

• Host a wild card playoff game

• Get the #3 or #4 seed

• Earn a wild card berth

• Fail to make the playoffs

The IDEAL

If the Seahawks win their last four games, they will win the NFC West and almost certainly be the #3 seed, even at 12-5. That would pit Seattle against the #6 seed, which most likely would be the Packers or Moons; L.A. would have little shot at the 6-seed because this means they lost to the Seahawks.

If the Seahawks win three of their last four games, they will make the playoffs and have a 85%+ chance of winning the division even if they lose to the Rams in Week 18. This would again lock the Seahawks into a probable wild card home game against Green Bay or Washington, but it could be L.A.

LESS THAN IDEAL

If the Seahawks win 3 or 4 of their last four games, they’re in as good of a position as they could have possibly been in after dropping to 4-5. If the Seahawks do not win at least three games though, then there’s only one game that actually matters.

If the Seahawks split their final four games and beat the Rams: Over 90% to make the playoffs.

If the Seahawks split their final four games and lose to the Rams: 45-55% to make the playoffs.

If the Seahawks lose their next three, but BEAT the Rams in Week 18: 62% to make the playoffs.

Why was it Geno Smith’s best game of the season?

Average time to throw in the first 5 games: 2.59 seconds

Average time to throw in the last 8 games: 3.05 seconds

L.J. Collier might be Arizona’s best pass rusher, so take the “no sacks allowed” with a grain of salt. But the last two months have demonstrated that Geno, the offensive line, and Ryan Grubb have found ways to give Smith more time to find open receivers (usually JSN):

In the first five games, Geno’s longest average time to throw: 2.81 seconds

In the last eight games, Geno’s shortest average time to throw: 2.80 seconds

With an average time to throw of 3 seconds against the Cardinals, Geno posted season-highs in these categories in Week 14:

• +5.6 EPA (estimated points added explained)

• +0.19 EPA/dropback

• 80% completions

Geno was pressured nine times (30%) according to Next Gen Stats and if you give time to throw a rope, he’s as good at lassoing as any quarterback in the NFL. Compare that to former Seahawks backup Drew Lock — also a sweet arm — in his start for the Giants on Sunday: 26 pressures (46.4%), which is 10 more than any other QB pending MNF.

The debate that never ends: “How would these QBs do if they switched places?”

No matter WHO the quarterback is, the Seahawks always want to be on the positive side of that debate and quite possibly Seattle is trending in that direction, which is also why teams don’t usually fire coordinators before they’ve had a chance to address their early-career mistakes.

Could this be the 2025 offensive line?

Things you never thought you’d read this season: It will be hard to replace any of Seattle’s starting offensive linemen if they continue to run block and pass protect as well as they did this weekend.

Charles Cross, Abe Lucas, and now Sataoa Laumea are trending to be starters in 2025, whereas John Schneider may feel that the most he needs to do at guard and center is continue to stockpile bodies to compete with Laken Tomlinson (if he’s re-signed) and Olu Oluwatimi. As well as Anthony Bradford, Christian Haynes, Jalen Sundell, and Michael Jerrell.

As bad as Tomlinson was in the first half of the season, should the Seahawks keep him? “Continuity” for $4 million could be much more valuable than “Outside Upgrades” for four times as much: The Rams paid Jonah Jackson $17 million per season to “steal him” away from the Lions and he’s riding the bench after only three starts.

Seattle could favor the devil they know and all the Seahawks would be doing is…what they do every year. Staying frug-OL.

Slot Fame

Via NextGenStats:

Geno Smith completed … all 9 of his passes for 101 yards and his touchdown when targeting receivers aligned in the slot. He has now thrown for the most yards in the NFL this season when targeting the slot (1,360) and ranks 2nd in completion percentage (76.9%) on such throws. Smith completed all 5 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the NFL leader with 767 receiving yards from the slot (217 more than the next closest receiver, Ladd McConkey).

As noted last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba could have been as high as third in receiving yards and he did reach the top-5:

(Ja’Marr Chase is crushing everyone in touchdowns and most categories despite not yet playing in his 13th game.)

Among wide receivers with at least 90 targets, JSN has the second-highest catch rate in the NFL (73.5%), behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. If you drop that threshold down a little bit, you’ll see Chris Godwin, Khalil Shakir, and Jaylen Waddle. It’s great company for a player who is still one of the youngest starters in the league.

Other than Chase and Justin Jefferson, there are no receivers or tight ends (as receivers) who are clearly having better seasons than JSN. He’s putting himself in that conversation as the next Wes Welker or the next Keenan Allen, if not better because he could be more than a slot receiver. He’s got the versatility to be successful anywhere on the field.

Playoff Odds

Per “The Upshot”, the Seahawks are hovering around a 60% chance to make the playoffs which is about 15 times greater than it was after the Rams loss.

That number goes up to at least 76% if Seattle beats the Packers on Sunday night, and it’ll crawl over 80% if the 49ers beat the Rams this Thursday. Even though it would mean San Francisco getting back to 7-7 and possibly within a game of the Seahawks, the Rams just put up 44 points against the Bills and had their most efficient game as an offense since Kurt Warner’s Greatest Show on Turf.

Actually, I have to amend something I said earlier: Puka Nacua is playing as well (or better) than Jefferson and Chase. The only thing that can stop him is injuries.

Unless you want the Seahawks to have to play the Rams for all the marbles in Week 18 (which didn’t usually go well for Mike Holmgren or Pete Carroll), you want L.A. to start stacking Ls again.

Seaside Joe 2109