After the Seahawks’ loss to the Broncos on Thursday, I’d say that it’s not an overreaction to believe that Seattle’s best hopes of making the playoffs now will come as a wild card. The 49ers are 5-0 and their next four games are against teams that have a losing record, putting both the 3-3 Seahawks and 2-3 Rams in danger of falling too far behind San Francisco to catch up—and both have already lost to the Niners this season.
This unexpected slump of three losses in four games puts Seattle’s regular season goal of winning the division and earning the number one seed in a slightly dimmer light, so I’ll instead offer fans a different objective because it may just increase your reasons for living for this campaign again:
The Seahawks need to be the BEST wild card team.
As unsatisfying as that probably sounds right now, let me explain why being “the best loser” is a lot better than sneaking into the playoffs as the lowest seed—especially this season.
The 7 Seed is False Hope
Since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule, there have been more teams to win 15+ games than there have been teams that won three road playoff games in the same year.
Teams with 0 or 1 loss in the regular season: 7
Teams that won 3 road playoff games: 5
The 1985 Patriots won three road playoff games and then it didn’t happen again for 20 years when the (vomit) Steelers did it in 2005. The 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers, and 2020 Buccaneers are the remaining three teams to do it.
Winning three road playoff games became possible in 1978, so that means that it happens once per decade. The only quarterbacks to pull off the playoff road hat trick in the last 18 years are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, and I certainly don’t think many Seahawks fans are putting Sam Darnold on that pedestal this morning.
A 7-seed can’t host a playoff game under any circumstances (except maybe natural disaster) so this berth is, as some people call Darnold, a “non-starter” for Seattle.
The 6 Seed isn’t much (any) Better
Technically, a 6-seed can host a playoff game if the bottom two wild cards both reach the conference championship game. Both teams would have to win road games in the wild card round and then knock off the number one seed and the next-best remaining team in the divisional round.
This has never happened.
Until recently, the 6-seed was the bottom of the playoffs, so hosting a playoff game wasn’t possible. However, the six seasons when it has been possible, it hasn’t happened or come close to happening in either conference.
To put it succinctly:
If you are a 6 or 7 seed, you won’t host a playoff game
Only 4 teams in 48 years of the wild card era have won 3 road playoff games and won the Super Bowl (1 per 12 seasons)
The extreme difficulty of this task was put on display just last season, as the L.A. Rams nearly lost road playoff games to both the Panthers and Bears despite being a much better team than either of them, and then eventually their luck ran out in Seattle. It’s just too hard.
But maybe the Seahawks can have a different goal in mind this year and it actually wouldn’t be different than their goal prior to Week 1:
Be Better than the Rams
Hey, isn’t this what we were all saying in August anyway?
As bad as these two teams may feel about themselves today, I wouldn’t count out the Seahawks and Rams as being the two best teams by January.
That could really matter a lot this season.
I know it’s early to be looking at playoff standings, but bear with me: There are only two teams in the NFC off to a great start and one of them can’t pass the ball for shit.
The Seahwaks have as many wins as the 3-seed Giants and could actually still be sitting in a wild card spot after this weekend if those NFC North teams lose.
Just think about this scenario:
The 49ers get the 1-seed (because they probably* will)
The Vikings get the 2-seed thanks to their defense and early lead
The winner of the NFC South sucks
The winner of the NFC East sucks
These could be your 2026 NFC division winners.
*not “definitely” by any means, but they have the best shot by a mile
If these division winners hold in somewhat the same form, the top two wild card teams will have fantastic shots at being better than the host teams, and even the seven-seed might not look too shabby against the two-seed.
Who would you anticipate picking if the Packers went on the road to face the Panthers and the Bears went on the road to face the Giants? Probably the Packers and Bears, right? Lions and Vikings? These are basically just mirror image rosters on offense and defense.
So what if instead it’s Seahawks at Panthers or Seahawks at Giants? Seahawks at Giants and Rams at Panthers?
That lineup would offer fans a good chance to see something we just saw in 2025:
Three NFC West teams in the second round of the playoffs.
And this is why the Seahawks should feel like they have a more attainable — and still attractive — goal than earning the number seed:
Earning the 5 Seed
Why?
The 5-seed is potentially playing a division winner with a losing record
This is looking like a year where the 4-seed could be an 8-9 winner out of the East or the South. It could be the Cowboys, the Giants, even the Moons. Or the Falcons. Or the Bucs. The 5-seed has a great shot at reaching round two and I don’t even need to see the actual playoff picture, this is just common sense already.
The 5-seed could host a DIVISIONAL round game
If the division winners in the East and South are as bad as they appear to be, then it might only take one real upset for all three wild cards to win. This is highly unlikely, I admit, but nevertheless a 5-seed has wildly better odds to host a playoff game than a six-seed (extremely slim) and seven-seed (none).
And now we’re looking at a potential wild card three-pack of teams like this:
Seahawks
Rams
Packers or Vikings or Bears or Lions
Were people not just saying a month ago that L.A., Seattle, and Chicago are the three best teams in the conference? The odds of wild card teams winning is generally low, but the Seahawks and Rams would be labeled as the two teams “nobody wants to face in the playoffs.”
The way things are looking, that’s exactly what they will be.
Why give up on the NFC West?
NOBODY SAID TO GIVE UP!
But there’s a difference between being optimistic and being realistic and I prefer the latter. It may only be six weeks, but Seattle and L.A. have both basically ruined their chance to win the division before we get to November.
If the Seahawks go 9-2 over the rest of the season, which would be an awesome way to finish now, they’d need the 49ers to go 6-6 in order to finish ahead of San Francisco in the standings.
If they finish with the same record (so 9-2 and the 49ers go 7-5) then Seattle needs to beat them in the rematch + win the tiebreakers + finish ahead of the Rams too.
At this rate, it sure doesn’t look like the 49ers will go 6-6 over the rest of the season, nor that Seattle will go 9-2.
I’m all for it happening anyway—stranger things have happened and it’s not THAT strange. However, the Seahawks needed to have a better start than 3-3 with a loss to the 49ers and worse yet San Francisco is one win away from 6-0. That is, unfortunately, what happened.
Maybe that glimmer of hope of winning the division is but a distant, fading star.
It doesn’t mean that all hope is lost:
In order to be the 5-seed, the Seahawks need only be a tiny bit better than a handful of teams that they’re probably already better than anyway.
The Bears? The Lions? The Packers? The Giants? The Falcons? The Eagles? The Cowboys? The Panthers?
None of these teams are as good at anything as the Seahawks are great at playing defense, PLUS Seattle has already been playoff tested and battle proven. The Seahawks only won the Super Bowl last season because they won 10 games in a row, mostly against playoff teams, and only half of those were at home.
Even in losing three games and turning the ball over as many times as they have, Seattle still proved to have an elite defense in the second half against the Denver Broncos and they have allowed the fewest passing yards in the game … which I still don’t think is as good as their run defense.
If the Seahawks can manage 12 wins — so 9-2 — they could be a dangerous wild card team in the 5-seed.
Just take it one week at a time
Seattle now gets 10 days rest before hosting the first of three straight home games, starting with the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. It is at least a chance for the Seahawks to prove if they still got it, and if they do still possess “it”, then why not believe they could start stacking wins.
Enough to overtake a vulnerable pack of the NFC’s “mid” teams.
If the Rams were 5-0 or 4-1 like many expected them to be, this argument would feel like much more of a stretch. Instead, L.A. is 2-3 and just as desperate as Seattle.
Instead of trying to catch up to the 49ers, why don’t fans just have some fun with a new goal: Staying ahead of the Rams.
Sunday wasn’t fun. Thursday wasn’t fun. Losing is never fun. And winning is a lot more fun when you feel like it means something. It can still mean something for the Seahawks when they take the field next, and that’s enough for me to remain hopeful for their chances this season and their reason for playing week after week.
Earning the number one seed is 1000% the best possible outcome for every team in the NFL during the regular season. It’s a HUGE advantage.
When that starts to slip away, look for the best hand you can make with the cards you were dealt. Not every pot is won with aces.
The Seahawks defense may not appear to be the best due to the number of points the Seahawks have given up, but a second watching of the game (almost as gut wrenching) showed me how unreal this defense is. I am not sure if this is accurate, but I believe for the entire second half AND OT the Denver total offense was under 40 yards. For the entire game it was 160ish yards. By contrast the Seahawk offense was more than twice that. How did that Denver offense score more points than we did? TURNOVERS! Why were we unstoppable last year at the end of the season? Playoff Sam did not turn over the ball. I know the offensive line protection was not giving Sam time and bears responsibility for making Sam’s life difficult back there, but he can’t throw that pass in overtime. Giving the Broncos the ball in FG range was the only way we lose that game. They didn’t even get a first down on the drive. Had Dixon punted then inside the 20 (highly likely) it was highly likely we’d get the ball back to try again.
My question I need to answer is can Sam run Fleury’s offense without constant multiple turnover games? We could have Charbs back for KC, we could have Price back soon after. Maybe we get Bradford back too. The run game will improve, which might help Sam. But Sam does need to get back to playoff Sam and protect the ball. Since week one of the 2025 season the Seahawks are 14 wins 0 loses with one or fewer turnovers. They are 6 wins 6 losses with 2 or more. Lock had zero INTs, and to my recollection he only threw one pass that was a real possibility for an INT. (Gonzalez in the Pats game) He also look comfortable in his second start with the Fleury system. His feet was planted and he stood in there throwing the ball. Darnold’s feet have been bouncing all over the place and the inability to set his feet have to be affecting his throwing accuracy.
If Sam can not dial it in soon, even though he has a better arm and higher ceiling than Lock, a Seahawk QB doesn’t need to be 2025 Stafford or Brady. They just have to protect the ball and take what is given by the defense. If you look at points off of turnovers you have the answer to why we have 3 losses. I know Lock is not going to be what Sam can be on his best days, but the Seahawks don’t need that. They need the offense to stop giving away the ball where the defense has no chance to get a stop. Three turnovers inside our own 20 against the 49ers. A turnover in FG range in OT against the Broncos. 21 points off turnover to the Commanders. So Lock won’t throw for 350 to 400 yards. Who cares if he plays complementary football and give Dixon and the defense the chance to continue to play complementary football and give the offense a chance to score enough points to win.
Get it righted, Sam.