How Seahawks could lose tiebreaker to team they SWEPT

The Rams put pressure on Seahawks to win out or lose the NFC West

Dec 13, 2024

It was only 5 days ago that the Seahawks beat the Cardinals for the second time in three weeks, essentially built a three-game lead over them by winning the season series 2-0, and left only 4 weeks for them to catch up. So how in the hell did we get to this:

If the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals all tie at 10-7, the Arizona Cardinals could win the NFC West.

“Well ha ha, so what, that will never happen.”

It MIGHT! It’s not as improbable as you think.

If the Seahawks do not beat the Packers on Sunday night — a better team than any that Seattle has defeated yet this season — the Rams take first place and the upper-hand going into the final stretch.

Because the Rams beat the 49ers on Thursday, Seattle is under immense pressure to win their next three games or they are more likely than not headed for a division title game in the season finale. Against a team that if they’re being honest with themselves, the Seahawks have historically struggled to beat in high-pressure situations save for a 2010 Week 17 win that put Seattle into the playoffs at 7-9.

2004 wild card: Rams 27, Seahawks 20 (Seattle was at home)
2020 wild card: Rams 30, Seahawks 20 (Seattle was at home)
2014-present: Seahawks are 7-15 against the Rams and have never beaten Matthew Stafford since he got to L.A.

Some fans will argue that this is good for Seattle and that the Seahawks should prove that they can now beat the Rams but there isn’t really any benefit to that short of the mystical; it would have been much preferable for Seattle to be able to coast into Week 18 without needing a win.

The fact that the Rams won on Thursday despite Stafford having one of the worst games of his career and not scoring a touchdown underscores just how cockroachian the Rams (7-2 since a 1-4 start) really are.

Unless the Seahawks somehow build a 2-game lead over the Rams in their next three games, Seattle will either be playing for the division title at SoFi Stadium in Week 18 OR L.A. will have already won the NFC West.

What the Seahawks need to do

Week 15

If the Seahawks beat the Packers, they will hold a one-game lead over the Rams in the NFC West. We will get to Arizona in a minute, but if they also win then they will stay within two games of Seattle.

If the Seahawks lose to the Packers, the Rams take the division lead and takeover the three seed in the NFC playoff standings. And if the Cardinals win, they will be within “one” game.

Week 16

The Seahawks host the 11-2 Vikings
The Rams play the 3-10 Jets in New York

If Seattle loses to Green Bay this week, then they are close to a must-win situation against the Vikings next week because if the Seahawks lose to the Packers, the Rams need only beat the Jets to take a one-game lead in the NFC West.

If that happens — the Seahawks lose to the Packers & Vikings and the Rams beat the Jets — Seattle is facing life or death in Week 17, which could be very bad for them given the potential conditions of that game.

Week 17

The Seahawks play the Bears on Thursday Night Football in Chicago
The Rams play the Cardinals

Did you watch last night? Neither team scored a touchdown. It was ugly. The weather was ugly. Thursday Night Football is unpredictable, so it doesn’t matter if the Bears are terrible, it may not matter that they have no coaching and a quarterback struggling through his rookie season. That’s going on the road on three days rest at the end of the season in a potential SNOW game.

It’s a high of 26 degrees in Chicago today. That’s during the day. This will be at night.

So it is not just that Seattle should feel good about themselves if they split these next two games against playoff teams, it is also that if the Seahawks split these next two games and then lose to the Bears, they might not even get a chance to play for the NFC West title in Week 18.

If the Seahawks go 1-2 and the Rams go 2-0, the standings will look like this:

Rams 10-6
Seahawks 9-7

Seattle will most likely have taken themselves out of wild card contention, ESPECIALLY if they lose to the Packers as they would guarantee Green Bay 10 wins with a win over the Seahawks.

“So what if the Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 18 and tie the division, Joe? What then?”

How the Rams win the division

If the Seahawks split the season series and the teams have the same record, then between the two of them division record would be the next tiebreaker.

The Seahawks are 3-2 in the division and the Rams are 3-1, so Seattle would be 4-2 if they win the finale and then L.A.’s record would come down to how they did against Arizona the previous week. Either they beat the Cardinals and had an identical 4-2 record or they didn’t and it is 3-3, in which case Seattle wins. But under this scenario, the Rams beat the Cardinals to get to 10 wins.

If they have the same division record, then common games is the next tiebreaker:

The Seahawks are 6-3 in common games right now
The Rams are 5-5 in common games right now

If the Seahawks do lose two of three, they will be 7-5 in common games. If the Rams win their next two games, they will be 7-5 in common games. The Seahawks need to go 2-1 to have the common games advantage.

Then conference record would be the next tiebreaker:

Seahawks 4-4 conference record
Rams 5-5 conference record

The Seahawks went 2-2 in this scenario, so that’s a 6-6 conference record. The Rams went 1-1 in this scenario, so that’s a 6-6 conference record.

If THAT’s tied, then the next tiebreaker is “Strength of Victory”, which is the combined record of every team that both teams have defeated that season.

I can’t calculate this right now, but here’s what I can say and it means that the Rams would probably win the tiebreaker here:

The Rams beat the 11-2 Vikings and the 10-3 Bills
The best team the Seahawks have beaten is the 8-5 Broncos

If the Saints beat the Packers in Week 16, that should also help the Rams strength of victory.

So how do the Seahawks beat the Rams for the division title?

Have a 2-game lead going into Week 18
Have a 1-game lead going into Week 18, then beat the Rams
Be tied going into Week 18, then beat the Rams

As far as I can tell, the Seahawks can’t fall behind the Rams going into Week 18. If that happens, my prediction (with very good certainty) is that Seattle’s dead in the water. And it’s TRIPLE bad for the Seahawks if these teams somehow end up 10-7 and the Cardinals beat the Rams in Week 17.

Here’s why…

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How the Cardinals steal the division

Here are two football games that you would have never known are important unless you read this newsletter:

Cardinals vs 3-10 Patriots in Week 15
Cardinals at 3-10 Panthers in Week 16

If the Cardinals go 2-0 against two of the worst teams in the world, they will be 8-7 going into Week 17’s game against the Rams. Even if L.A. beats the Jets next week, that would not put Arizona out of contention as long as they beat the PATRIOTS and PANTHERS.

Only the Seahawks or the Cardinals can put the Cardinals out of contention prior to Week 17.

Okay, let’s keep getting more interesting…

If the Cardinals next beat the Rams in Week 17:

Cardinals, 9-7 (3-2 division record)
Rams, 9-7 if they beat the Jets (3-2 division)

This is where Seattle is important: They need to get to 11 wins to guarantee that no tiebreaker with the Cardinals would ever matter. To do that, the Seahawks NEED to go 3-0 or 2-1 in these next three games and you’ve seen how difficult the upcoming schedule is, but let’s just say for this exercise that the Seahawks went 2-1:

Seahawks, 10-6 (3-2 division)

This seems good for the Seahawks because they enter Week 18 with a division lead, but it doesn’t really matter. It still only matters if the Seahawks beat the Rams. The only way that the Seahawks can guarantee that Week 18 doesn’t matter is if they go 3-0 in the next three games.

But this is where the Cardinals catch a MASSIVE BREAK:

Week 18: vs 6-8 San Francisco 49ers

Maybe you heard that Niners linebacker De’Vondre Campbell QUIT in the middle of the game last night? This is a quitting team. San Francisco has a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs but that will be gone soon and the 49ers could shut down every important player and the Cardinals end up with a cakewalk in Week 18.

Let’s say that the Cardinals beat the 49ers and the Rams beat the Seahawks, then all three teams would finish 10-7. Who wins the tiebreaker?

“Well, Seattle would because they SWEPT Arizona!”

“No, L.A. would because they SWEPT Seattle!”

“No, Arizona would because they SWEPT L.A.!”

The Cardinals beat the Rams 41-10 earlier this season, so another win over the Rams would complete the sweep. If the Rams beat the Seahawks, that completes their sweep of Seattle. And the Seahawks wept the Cardinals.

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Because there’s no advantage here, then the next tiebreaker between three teams is conference record:

If the Cardinals go 4-0, as they need to do here, they will have a 6-6 conference record
If the Seahawks go 2-2, they will end with a 6-6 conference record
If the Rams go 2-1 with a win over the Jets but a loss to Arizona, they will have a 6-6 conference record

The next tiebreaker would be common games:

The Cardinals and Rams would both be 3-5 in common games
The Seahawks would be 4-4 in common games IF they go 1-2 in the next three weeks

This is potentially where Seattle ends up escaping with the division if there’s a three-way tie at 10-7 and all three teams are 4-2 in the division. But the only way to do that would be to beat the Rams and so even if the Seahawks win 2 of the next 3, they still need to beat L.A. in Week 18.

However, the Cardinals could still win a three-way tie:

If the Cardinals win out and the Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 18, leaving all three teams at 10-7, Seattle will lose the division to a team that they swept despite having the same win-loss record.

Not only do the Seahawks need to win two of their next three games — Packers, Vikings, TNF in Chicago — there’s basically no chance that they can afford to lose to the Rams in the season finale. Even if the Rams lose to the Cardinals, that could just open up the door for Arizona to steal the division by beating a worthless 49ers team.

See any errors? Please let me know!

Seaside Joe