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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

I look at the QB situation this way: If Carroll wanted to start Smith, we’d know; but, he doesn’t want to hand the job to Lock. Pete will take the risk of fewer reps for the winner because he believes that (1) if it’s Lock, winning a competition will be better for him than a full set of reps, (2) Geno is a such a known quantity that a full set of reps won’t make much difference, and (3) in any case this is risk worth taking to find out whether Lock is the guy. This is predicated on the assumption that Carroll does not necessarily believe that the results will be underwhelming no matter who he chooses.

While I don’t hold out much hope for Lock, it is worth taking a long look at him if there is a sliver of a chance that he can meet the Hasselbeck Threshold.* For one thing, this would put next year’s draft in an entirely different light.

* Where a GM cannot build a consistently successful team unless the QB is at least as good as Matt Hasselbeck.

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Yeah, very good points! I would say about Geno Smith, if he was asked, "Do you think you're a known commodity?" he would probably vehemently disagree that he is. And I think he has a point. I see nothing of great interesting Geno Smith, at all, but if he's going to "teddy bridgewater" the ship and do the best job of handing it off and running play action (he seemed to get along well with DK Metcalf), then the only way to truly know what he's worth is to give him the job and see if he loses it himself.

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May 19, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

Hasselbeck in his prime was an above average quarterback, certainly more likely to pull out a win compared to many, but Kurt Cousins springs to mind. If Lock could be as good as Matt we would be in playoff contention

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May 19, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

Hasselbeck might have been even more successful if the franchise hadn’t shot itself in the foot by hiring Toxic Tim Russell as GM.

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Thought I posted this earlier, but not seeing it now. That seems a high bar. Hasselbeck was a very good QB, in my opinion.

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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

No question that I’m setting a high bar. Hasselbeck was *very* good QB whose career didn’t rise to elite, HOF level. Even so, he led a team to the SB (where, as we all know, it was completely and totally 1000% jobbed). Anyway, my theory* is that a franchise needs a QB at least that good to be a contender year and year out. The GM still has to build a team and has less margin for error than if the QB was Patrick Mahomes, but the possibility is there.

When you get right down to it, that’s what Pete Carroll wants to do. I don’t buy the argument—which I’ve heard—that he’ll settle for a warm body that doesn’t turn the ball over. He expects a certain level of excellence; to me, that means at least as good as Matt H.

What’s your bar for QB? (I’m genuinely curious.)

*I get it: I’m just a random commenter. But I’m entitled to have a theory even if I am the only one who buys into it!

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Absolutely! Your opinion is as valid as mine.

I haven't really thought about my bar for QB. I will say that I've seen a lot of okay ones win Super Bowls, but they don't tend to keep a team competitive year in and year out. I'd say Matt was at or *just* outside a top 5 QB in his prime. I feel like with a top 10 guy and a solid team, you should be in the mix every year. Health and other factors need to go your way (or at least not favor who you meet in the playoffs) to make it to the promised land. Having a top 2-3 QB is a huge boost to your chances. And we can still draft McCall after finishing with a winning record with Baker and have a shot at that.

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Paul, I think Pete sees the QB like Holmgren did. Impliment the game plan we've put in place; do your part, and we're putting it on the other 21 players (plus special teams) to do their part, and when we're together in the locker room after the game together, everyone will feel good about the win *together*

Maybe that sounds corny, but I think that's what Pete's system is about. He doesn't want to pay one guy 30% of the cap. He wants guys that are all about the collective. I think Russ either out-grew that, or his view of legacy was more important than being one of the guys.

My .02 worth

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That's a great way of putting it.

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I believe your next to last sentence hits the nail on the head. I loved Russ and have so many amazing memories from his time with us, but he's always been about his legacy. I wish him all the best in Denver -after this season, when I hope they go winless.

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I'm the same. I like Russ, wish him well, and hope we get a good pick from Denver. I would have never made that trade. Just seems like a lot to give up for a small window (both age and contract desires).

I think in time Seattle wins this trade. We'll see.

Wonder how Russ' deep ball does in the mile high air? lol

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I'm not sure we will be considered winners of that trade, but so much of that is a matter of perspective anyway. I've seen folks on Twitter suggesting that it will be determined by who wins in week 1. That's absurd to me. Besides the obvious fact that it's just one game, we still won't have used half of the draft picks yet.

Funny that you wouldn't have made that trade if you were Denver, because I wouldn't have made that trade if I was JS/PC. You just don't trade a HOF QB in his prime (albeit towards the end of it). I like to think I'd have said you have 2 more years on your contract, go play. If contract negotiations are too ridiculous, then we'll franchise you. Then maybe even do it again! But they took the high road. He didn't want to be here and was going to demand a fortune. If he wins a Super Bowl with Denver, they will be happy they made the trade. If we draft and develop great players with their picks, we will too.

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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

Like your QB analysis. Makes sense to me.

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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

Thanks! It’s me trying to read Pete’s mind. I’m personally agnostic on the relative value of reps and competition—I can see merit in both both arguments.

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If Pete really wants to win as many games as possible next season, he should tell John to get on the phone with Cleveland. I'll admit to not having watched much of Lock in NFL games, but what I have seen and the numbers suggest that he's not a starter. We know what Geno is.

While I am very, very happy that we failed in our quest to land DeShaun Watson, that's for off-field reasons. Outside of him I wanted the best QB available and I don't see another player better than Mayfield at this point. The Browns became my wife's backup team after we watched them celebrate their first win in an otherwise winless season, so I've watched a lot of Browns games since Baker was drafted. Outside of his post injury play last season, he's been good to very good on average and is tough as hell. It will be a contract year for him, and he'll have a lot to prove. Worst case scenario involving Mayfield seems orders of magnitude better than worst case scenario with Geno or Lock.

The conspiracy part of my brain thinks that the reason no one is willing to do business with Cleveland is their ire at the guaranteed contract they gave Watson. That's going to change the way contracts are done for star players from here on out. It's not because no one wants Baker, and certainly not if the Browns eat enough salary.

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I can see a scenario where we give Cleveland a 6th rounder and eat $6 million of his salary. If we go through OTAs and Levi is our best I would love to see him play. It is more likely we see the Mayfield show come to town. One thing we don't know, which Seattle probably does, is Baker a selfish Pri..person or is he respected by the men he leads. The chip on his shoulder would be huge

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Levi is fun to think about, and I envisioned a lefty Kyler Murray until I watched some of his play. Even in highlights, he's so, so much slower than Murray, and I will be shocked if he's more than a camp arm. There's not an NFL starting QB on this roster and there simply HAS to be by 9-12 (Never Forget) when week one starts. The QB position is too important in the modern NFL to sit pat for the next four months. They know that they must beat anyone else to getting the best available human on the planet who can play that position in 2022. If anyone wants to show me a better option than Baker Mayfield, I'm all ears.

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To us Seahawk fans that have a feel for what's going on, your view is most likely hitting the nail on the head. Seattle is slow playing this as much as possible. I think a 6th rounder plus 25 % of his salary should get the job done, for Baker. My guess is we will make the move by July 10th. The only reason we would give anything up is to get him here early enough to learn 70% of the offense, before the season opener. Baker will need time to learn. I really think your right. Chris Simms had some pretty high praise for Geno who he ranked 33rd. It sounds like he feels Geno is a much better QB than that but hasn't played enough to be ranked higher. Perhaps it is like Simms said, forget about 2014 era that has nothing to do with Geno in 2022. Personally I think Geno is a little slow but he does throw a pretty ball. If the rumors of Baker are true then Pete won't bring him in. Culture is what Pete believes to his core. We both know Pete wants to win, and maybe more so with new players. The more I write the less I know haha, I still think your right. Will see pretty soon. I live in Victoria and the weather has never been this cold in May. This QB situation feels like being a west coast weather man. Nice to converse with you. Chris

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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

I know that Pete incessantly wants to add “Always Com-”

For Pete’s sake was that a pun?

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Technically, I would say no, but I could be wrong!

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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

Silly me, I thought they already had 'decided' on Lock. 'Guess I breezed too fast through the last epic novel on this subject. Worn out trying to keep up. Now, I'll wait and see. LOL!

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Internally, maybe they did. Externally, Lock is not good enough to be considered a guarantee to be the guy. And Seattle is open to more competition.

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May 18, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe

They’ll have to ‘get lucky’ on this task. No one “replaces” Russell Wilson. :)

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LOL! Where we are is roughly Part 1 of War and Peace.

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OMG! THAT'S about it, for sure! (A terrible literary memory, though!)

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Forgotten in your analysis is that Geno Smith has already won the locker room. When he replaced Wilson last year, players celebrated Smith's successes and were hurt when he failed. I think they liked Smith more than Wilson, and Drew is entirely new to them.

I believe Pete understands this and will use the competition to give Lock a chance to win the player's support.

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Everything you wrote today I am in agreement. I was holding my breath on your take of Chris Carson. Carson is a quality runningback and athlete, unfortunately you could not have a more difficult injury to deal with. Looking at this positively Pete Carroll loves Chris Carson and what he can do. I am pretty certain Carson is not a rah, rah, guy, but he is a leader. Just the way he attacks would be tacklers, he brings the hurt to them. He has scored some of the best two yard touchdowns that you could hope to see. Carson catches the ball very well and pass blocks at the same level. Just how the coaching staff will be able to judge Carson's reliability, has to be very difficult. In no order, can he take a battering and play in at least 12 to 14 games. Will he be able to play second or third string. I am not saying that's where he belongs, it's that sitting for 2 1/2 quarters before your called on, is a young man's game. I do believe Pete Carroll cares about his players as much as an NFL coach can. Will Pete be able to sign off on Carson playing if there is even a small chance of there being a life altering injury. I don't want to see him in pain for decades to come.

I think Drew Lock needs to get the lions share of reps to begin with. If both Geno, and Drew are able to play to their best ability, Drew Lock has more upside. If being the most important intangible. Also Geno knows the offense and receivers, so the first 10 to 14 days, 60/40 with Lock getting 60. I like the way 5 foot 8 Levi plays football.

Finally I remember a question being asked when has a quarterback moved teams and made a marked improvement or had success. I reached into the recesses of my memory and decided on Jim Plunkett. I actually didn't need to go quite that far back. After ruminating on this subconsciously I remember a player who was a hot mess after playing for his first NFL team and becoming one of the best to ever do it. He sat behind a Hall of Famer. He had maybe the best ever offensive mind to coach football at his second stop. This fellow threw a bucket load of ints at his first stop but he could run. I am speaking of Steve Young. In no way could I say that Drew Lock will be the next Steve Young, but his new address and Pete's positivity could coax out the obvious talent. I would like nothing more for Lock to have a season where he is 3 to 1 in Tds vs ints. The media just can't believe Seattle would go into the season with Drew Lock. If by good fortune or skill would it not be great to be playing meaningful football in December, just to say F You to so many so called experts. If not we will more than likely chose a good one in Grayson McCall. For every Seaside Joe reader that would be awesome.

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I loved watching Jim Plunkett! Rich Gannon, maybe. Doug Williams definitely had a moment of glory. To show you how old I am, I remember this guy:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MorrEa00.htm

In an earlier era, Carson is a very valuable #2 back along the lines of Walt Garrison and Rocky Bleier.

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Earl was a played a very big role in the Dolphins undefeated season of 1972. Chris Carson if healthy will be a great number two in our one two punch. I am excited to see KW3 play, but he does need to do better with pass pro. I had not seen a problem, but I was watching just a series of highlights. I then watched a couple of proper break downs. I don't think he will struggle but I have seen a number of occasions where he half assed it. You know when a back gives a weak shoulder check. On another play they had a screen setup for him. KW3 job was to engage with the linebacker in the two hole and then slip out for the screen. He put little to no effort into squaring up the linebacker and giving him a jolt, because of the lack of ferocity the linebacker read screen and stuck on him like glue. The QB had no where to throw it, and probably should have run but he threw it away. If Carson can play it would give KW3 time to get his feet wet and get used to every defender running a 4.6 or better. That's a bit of an exaggeration, one never knows but he may show so well in preseason he may not need time. As far as pass pro I do think Seattle will clean that up quickly.

Rich Gannon and Doug Williams are good examples. Williams Super Bowl was so good I forget about the years he toiled in Tampa Bay. Chris

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Williams had one the great individual performances in SB history. Denver's D may be still in shock.

I'm with you on Seattle fixing Walker's pass pro issues. I don't buy the argument--and I've heard it--that RBs don't get better. Pro coaching is at different level--with it, a back as good as Walker already is can clean up his weaknesses and raise his game to elite status.

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This is for certain. He has a similar stocky build like Travis Homer, and Homer is as good as it gets in pass pro. The good players will get better being coached by the best. Seattle selects smart very well spoken men. You would be hard pressed to find a P/J draft pick who isint well spoken. Rashaad Penny has turned his pass blocking around. I have been blowing his horn from the start, I even raised the level of my confidence in him before the start of last year. I can't remember what game it was,

but it was a home game. On the first play from scrimmage Penny cut back and gashed the defense for a 16 yard gain. I thought here we go, but it was his only play of the game, due to a hamstring. It was that point I thought I am wrong about him. He then followed the example of Adrian Peterson in practice and heeded the words of Chris Carson. Those two convinced Penny that he could run around or over almost anybody. He learned how to be a professional, somethings you don't or can't learn until you are a pro. I am quite confident Penny will play the majority of the season. If Carson can't comeback we will have the fastest duo at tailback in the league. Just quickly the way KW3 finishes his runs point to him being good at all aspects, as he can catch well, he just didn't get much of a chance

Another muscular low to the ground hard to tackle player who will be very good is Dee Eskridge. I played 23 years of rugby, and from 18 to 32 I played at the Premier level. The hardest guys to tackle were always the quick heavy set shorter guys. If you go high during a tackle in rugby you can get called for a dangerous tackle. It's not quite the same but defenders in football are also forced to go lower. The players built this way give you such a small target when trying to tackle them in space. Pete knows this and it is the reason he drafts backs and most receivers that are built this way. Ok Rock on I must now contribute to society for a flicker of time. Chris

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It's nice to know that there is at least one other person who doesn't scourge them for drafting Penny. He had no injury history in college but did (and does) have elite footwork. (Carson--who is no slouch--is an ox in comparison). "Position value" and other metrics--so what? You just don't see guys as big as Rashaad with feet like his. If you can get that in the back of the first round in 2018, take it.

I guess we can fault them for not taking Nick Chubb, but hindsight is 20/10 and it's not like they passed on Chubb to take Sony Michel.

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Right and Penny may yet prove to be a better pick than Chubb, I would settle for similar yardage at the end of their careers. As far as positional value what a bunch of horse pucky. He is a guy who will touch the ball 15 to 20 times a game, I put great value in that. I don't want to jinx him but he seems to have turned the corner on the injury bug, "touch wood". Another favorable point is he has not burned the rubber off his wheels. He is going into his fifth year without being worn down. Chris

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Love Chris Carson , but if the medicals aren't 100% sure he is fully healthy he should retire like Cam Bam for his futures sake. However , if the meds check out, a backfield of Carson, Penney and Walker would be the best in the league. Curran looked like a starter last year. Lucas or Curran, nice problem to have.

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Get Baker Mayfield. The other 2 are backups at best. Draft the quarterback you want in next year's draft. Mayfield will prove he's the one. I think he would be the final piece to the puzzle.

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Amen. See my post 2 min ago

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May 19, 2022·edited May 19, 2022

I wonder if the "open competition" is Pete's way to see who will take up the mental side of that leadership role. We know Russ came in and right away took up that mentality, and knocked Flynn (who we had just signed to a contract) off the throne. If Lock can command the team and lead, well then he's got the talent and mindset, go get it. If Geno rises up, well I don't think he has as much talent, but then so be it. I just haven't read or seen that alpha male mindset yet from Lock. I think Geno will be the starter. This is just speculation from an invested fan though.

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Abe Lucas was actually a product of a run and shoot offense the last 2 years.. prior to that was Mike Leach's air raid system.

Wish writers would research a little before spouting the same wrong info.

WSU ran like 362 running plays for nearly 1500 yrds in the 2021 season. I dont think Abe Lucas's run blocking is not as bad as people think it is.

If im not mistaken Geno Smith joined seattle for the 2019 season making him a 3 yr veteran of this team. Not that it matters. Beating the 2021 jaguars at a 5 yrds average pass attempt is not lighting it on fire..

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Blaming former HC Fangio, for Locks 3 scintillating years at Denver, conveniently misses the point. It wasn't Fangio throwing, all the incompletions, the 14 interceptions to 16 tds, and he wasnt responsible for all the clutch time failures.

What happens if Lock goes 1 and 4 and Smith goes 0 and3 ?Wait till next year and draft a rookie QB, hoping he can be the next franchise QB in year 1. Good luck. Why not pick up Mayfield or Minshew who have shown they can win now? Sorry, but replacing Wilson with Lock is a joke.

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I've listened to scores of Pete Carroll interviews over the years, and while he can be full of it (tempted to put an "sh" in front of that) at times, he believes in his core principles. One of those is that winning is part of culture, and that tanking a season is a sure way to lose that culture. I view your 1-4 and 0-3 examples as likely outcomes if those guys start games. While Mayfield is no Mahomes, he's closer to Mahomes than he is any combination of Lock/Geno. Would anyone be shocked at us making a playoff run with Baker? Maybe even turning his career back around/seeing a better version of him than he's yet shown in the NFL? I wouldn't. And even the 10-15 ranked QB in the league that I view him as now is worth a ton more wins than I'd expect from Lock/Geno/Eason.

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Tanking never pays off. Pete is absolutely on target about culture.

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I whole heartedly agree

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This just in, Levi Lewis was waived.

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START PENNY , GENO, LUCAS and CROSS ! Would you rather have a former 1st rnd QB and a 2nd rnd RB back there while the tackles get up to NFL speed ???

MORE INTERESTED in the DEFENSE out of the GATE, like EARLY LOB ! If we start 0-3 or 0-4 , they can change things up.

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I’d be surprised if the starting QB had not been decided already. The competition will be to see if Smith/ Lock can do well enough to be the starter for the future. Will we feel the need to trade up and get the Jag’s number one pick in next years draft?

When I start getting excited about the new QB and how successful we’ll be for this year, I can’t help but remember how absolutely lousy our defense was last year. Too many times we couldn’t get off the field.

Maybe we have that fixed. Let’s see; we switched coaches, we’re going to still drop 7 and rush 4 guys, but, we’ll be in a 5/2 or a 3/4 alignment instead of a 4/3. Will I feel confident our defense has the advantage in third and long situations?

Will it matter who’s under center if they’re only getting the ball 3 or 4 times a half because the other side is running with 9 to 11 play drives.

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I'd say start Lock and work his tail off with the best QB coaches you can find. Don't give up on him. Develop the running game, the short passing game. In the long run anyone else out there that might come in would need the same treatment. Build the team around the skills available. That is what coaches are there for.

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E X A C T L Y ! ! !

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Hey Kenneth -

Save $4.6m to roll Carson's salary over to next year by cutting him when we are SO loaded with 2023 cap room seems to be mute over the possibility that his skills are still at least occasionally near premium. I say keep him - even if he is just a #2a or 2b back and only cut him if he is a #3 or laid up.

As for QBs, remember in 2012 when Tarvares Jackson was the #1, Matt Flynn the high priced incoming talent and Russ was the promising rookie? Pete said "We know what Jackson can do." while justifying his almost NO reps. Flynn was mildly injured and did not get many reps either. Circumstances lead to the #3 (DangeRuss) getting the Most opportunities to shine, which he did.

This year, I suspect Geno (being the 'known quantity') will be the virtually no reps guy, while Lock gets a Lot of nurturing and opportunity, even though they will call him the #2, he will easily be given #1 reps throughout the mini-camps and pre-season.

I say coaching will key in on Lock as the Seahawks' day one starter. Geno is the insurance in 2022, just in case. With this running game, not as likely to be needed as people are predicting.

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