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Vision Board: Seahawks-Raiders
My 500th Seahawks article of the year: Seaside Joe 1362
This morning, I did my updated count of how many Seaside Joe articles I’ve written in 2022 and I have to apologize to you for being so lazy lately: I’ve only averaged 53 articles per month since August! And only a bonus article for Regular Joes every third day.
I’ll do my best to step it up for you.
The Seaside Joe operation moved from Mailchimp to Substack in March and the immediate returns were 76 articles posted in the first month thanks to the whirlwind of thoughts and ideas that consumed me in the aftermath of the trade. From March 1 to Thanksgiving Day, there have been 441 Seaside Joe articles, but if you include the 59 days of the newsletter that happened before that then we land on an exact 500 posts in the year 2022.
This would actually make today’s Vision Board on the Seahawks-Raiders the 501st article. (But also, I wrote a handful of Substack posts prior to March, so really it’s more like 523, a disgustingly uneven number!)
And you know what that means: My pledge to write over 1,000,000 words about the Seattle Seahawks has been REACHED AND EXCEEDED. With over a month left in the year (as Brad Pitt says to Cate Blanchett in Bullet Train), “The rest is just ridin’ on the gravy train to hell, baby.”
*Never seen Bullet Train, do not think that Cate Blanchett is even in that movie, but this feels like a line that could be in it.
Thank you for READING that many words, I sincerely hope not a single one was mispeld or containing grammar bad. I have not forgotten your Seahawks fan survey from early this week, if you haven’t voted yet-GO VOTE!
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In the last Vision Board, a series that Seaside Jay is now referring to as “Guy Pinterest,” I envisioned a 49ers loss to the Cardinals (WRONG), a difficult road for the Broncos (they lost to the Raiders in OT), and that Kansas City would tear through their remaining non-Hawks schedule (TBD).
This week, the Seahawks host a 3-7 Las Vegas team that has struggled to beat any team other than the Broncos: The Raiders are 2-0 against Denver, but 1-7 against everybody else with the lone win coming against the worst team in the NFL. Here’s this week’s guy pinterest.
Geno Smith draws back ‘MVP’ talk with dominant performance: 5 TD
I had never seen this “viral Super Bowl ad” for FTX until this week and I’m grateful that the company and its CEO has had such a public cratering because it gave me an opportunity to see Larry David at his most Larry David. One of the best commercials I’ve ever seen!
And one of the worst companies!
(Sidenote: LD and other celebrites are being sued by consumers who lost millions of dollars through FTX and I will go on strike if they take a single cent away from him. I want that money to stay with the guy who created Seinfeld and Curb, not to some idiot who lost their money on a scam! And I say that as an idiot!)
In the ad, Larry David is skeptical of different inventions throughout history that ended up changing the course of humanity and then he’s also skeptical of crypto. “I’m never wrong about this stuff,” says Larry. Well, he was right about this one.
And millions of football fans were highly skeptical of Pete Carroll when he made it known that Geno Smith was going to be the starting quarterback of the Seahawks this season. Starting Geno was a massive risk and so unprecedented that it’s understandable why so many of us turned into Larry David before-and-early-in the season.
I guess that makes Geno Smith more like a wheel and less like “free money.”
Geno has been fairly consistent all season, but if you look at only his last seven games and pace it out for 17, the result would be: 70.5% completions, 4,267 yards, 32 touchdowns, five interceptions, 8.2 Y/A, 111.5 rating, and almost 500 rushing yards.
Those numbers would rank:
First in passing yards in Seahawks history (but with an extra game—251 passing yards per game would rank tied for fourth)
Tied with Dave Krieg for fifth in passing touchdowns
First in passer rating
Tied with Russell Wilson for second in Y/A
The 500 rushing yards would also be more than a typical Wilson season when he was Seattle’s quarterback; other than the 849 yards that Wilson had in 2014, he never went over 600 yards. In his final season with Seattle, Wilson only averaged 13 rushing yards per game. Geno’s around 30 rushing yards per game.
But Geno has done all of that without having faced the NFL’s last place team in pass defense DVOA… The Las Vegas Raiders.
As you can see, there’s even a HUGE gap between 31st-ranked Jacksonville and 32nd-ranked Las Vegas: From 21.8% to 32.5%.
The Raiders rank 24th in points allowed, 28th in points per drive allowed, 24th in passing yards allowed, 28th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 32nd in passer rating allowed (106.3) with again, a massive gap between them and 31st-place K.C. (102.5).
The only QB to face the Raiders and not throw a touchdown is Wilson (this past weekend), but Wilson also had one of his best games as a Bronco earlier in the year against Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes had four touchdowns and no picks; Justin Herbert had three touchdowns and no picks; Andy Dalton, Davis Mills, and Wilson each threw two touchdowns against the Raiders; even Matt Ryan had one of his best games with the Colts when facing Las Vegas.
Not one QB has done bad against defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s pass defense this season.
Geno ‘fits in’ with proper Red Zone performance: 4 TD in Red Zone
I have not seen many full episodes of Saturday Night Live in recent years—has anyone?—but will usually catch whichever clips that YouTube suggests to me such as this one from when Dave Chappelle was the host. In it, there’s just one out of place white barber who doesn’t quite fit in with the rest of the barbershop.
Well, one way that Geno Smith could do a better job of fitting in with the top quarterbacks in the league would be to improve his scoring rate in the red zone. Again, he’s got a great opportunity as the Raiders rank dead last in red zone defense.
Teams have made 31 trips into the red zone against Las Vegas and the Raiders have allowed 22 touchdowns in those situations. (You’re curious how they rank in third down defense since that number is also right there: Las Vegas has the fourth-worst third down defense.)
This season, Geno Smith is 18-of-36 for 126 yards with 8 TD, 0 INT, and five sacks taken in the red zone. Because it’s a short field, it’s not important how many yards per attempt the QB averages in the red zone or even the passer rating really. It just matters: How many touchdowns and turnovers?
Geno having no turnovers is good—Josh Allen has FOUR red zone interceptions.
However, Allen also has 15 red zone touchdowns, almost twice as many as Geno. But Mahomes in the red zone: 49-of-76, 316 yards, 24 touchdowns, and one interception.
Mahomes in red zone: 24 TD/1 INT.
That’s three times as many touchdowns as Seattle’s passing offense. Of course, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and the Chiefs have an offense that everyone envies. Also, they don’t have a great rushing threat, so Mahomes and Travis Kelce are a bit vulture-like. However, Geno’s eight touchdowns is still tied with Ryan for 18th in the NFL. It’s not enough and the Seahawks rank 26th in red zone offense.
This Sunday is the best opportunity for Geno Smith to find DK Metcalf twice in the red zone, Tyler Lockett once, and Kenneth Walker III once.
That will put him closer to the top-10 in red zone touchdowns and further away from being as effective in that area of the field as Derek Carr (17/45, 114 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT).
Do NOT miss out on the Seaside Subscriber Game Chats, starting this Sunday against the Raiders! Get the Substack app to participate.
Tariq Woolen frustrates Davante Adams, makes him question every choice he’s ever made that led him to the Raiders
The big corporate news this week was Disney’s surprising decision to bring back former CEO Bob Iger in an attempt to right the ship and get back to beaucoup profits and not-embarrassing products.
How soon until Davante Adams is also trying to un-do the worst decision of his life and to stop being a part of the NFL’s most embarrassing team?
From airing his frustrations with the Raiders’ record like above to physically taking them out on innocent cameramen like below, Adams is having his most difficult season BUT is also on pace for a career-high 190 targets. Adams has been super-productive—he’s on pace for 109 catches, 1,572 yards, and 17 touchdowns—but the Raiders are only averaging 22.5 points per game and are 3-7.
The Packers averaged 26.5 points per game last season and 31.8 points per game the year before that. Adams is getting his, but to what end for the team?
Against the Saints a month ago, Adams finished with one catch on five targets for three years in a 24-0 loss. Against the Cardinals in Week 2, Adams had 12 yards, and against the Titans in Week 3, he had 36 yards. Now he’s set to face the NFL’s second-leading intercepter: Tariq Woolen, who has five.
Throws at Woolen this year have gone 23-of-42 for 280 yards, giving up three touchdowns but intercepting five passes for a rating of 59.7. Among cornerbacks who have seen at least 30 targets, that passer rating ranks eighth overall.
Woolen has had two full weeks to think of nothing else other than how to shutdown Davante Adams. That doesn’t mean he will be as successful as he hopes, that doesn’t mean that Adams won’t be prepared for the rookie, and it won’t mean that Woolen sucks if the NFL’s most unstoppable force recently (413 yards, 5 TD in the last three games) has another productive game.
But I see Woolen’s size and speed matching up so well with Adams that he adds onto the frustration for one of the league’s most frustrated.
By this time Monday, Davante Adams could be greenlighting a second season of She-Hulk*.
*Before you defend any Marvel or Disney properties, please be informed that I didn’t see it and I wouldn’t care!
What are you VISIONS this week against the Raiders?