Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, Broncos: Who's the best 10-win team?

Double-digits in the charts, #1 in our hearts

The Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots are the only 11-2 teams in the league, but the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams are still the two best teams. There are six teams with nine wins and one or more of them could be better than the Patriots or Broncos, but I don’t think any team is better than the Seahawks or Rams.

I came to this conclusion not by comparing any one player, position group, or coach — although we’re going to do a lot of that today — but by HOW these four franchises became the only teams with double-digit wins so far.

The Seahawks, Rams, and Broncos are the only three teams that truly could still be undefeated…

Barely lost

Seahawks: Bucs, 49ers, Rams

Rams: Panthers, 49ers, Eagles

Broncos: Chargers, Colts

Patriots: Steelers

Of the 10 losses between these four teams, the only game that wasn’t really close was New England’s 20-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Yeah, the Raiders and the game wasn’t as close as the final score—the Patriots kicked a last second field goal to cut it to a touchdown loss.

Like Seattle and L.A. Denver could be 13-0 too but the Broncos have the greatest win-loss variability of any team because look at how many times they barely won:

Barely won

Seahawks: Cardinals

Rams: Seahawks, Colts, Texans

Patriots: Bengals, Falcons, Dolphins, Bills

Broncos: Jets, Raiders, Texans, Eagles, Moons, Chiefs, Giants

And look at how many times the Seahawks barely won. Just once. I’m not just talking about scores by a touchdown or less because like the Patriots-Raiders example the final can be misleading. I’m talking about times that these teams scored at the last second or had to make a defensive stop to win the game in the fourth quarter.

This means that 9 of Seattle’s 10 wins are relatively unquestionable wins. The lone exception was a Thursday night game in Arizona that the Seahawks held a 14-point fourth quarter lead in and if Jason Myers makes a 53-yard field goal on Seattle’s second-to-last drive then the Cardinals need a desperation onside kick and it’s not a “barely” win.

The Seahawks could be 13-0 at best or 9-4 at worst.

The Rams could be 13-0 at best or 7-6 at worst.

The Broncos could be 13-0 at best or … 4-9 at worst!

I know this is an extreme use case of the “What if?” game with schedule results. Is it wrong though?

In New England’s case they’re looking at 12-1 at best or 7-6 at worst. And there are a lot of other factors to consider here too like strength of schedule, injury factors, statistical analysis, and a friendly debate ranking the players and coaches of each team. There are also the teams that we won’t discuss today that haven’t won 10 games (Bills, Packers, Chargers, Bears, Jaguars, and 49ers) and they deserve their own debate of merits for who the best teams are in 2025. The Texans, Eagles, and Lions would also like a word.

But right now I’m just going to shrink the debate down to the four teams that have the most wins in the NFL this season: Seahawks, Rams, Broncos, and Patriots.

Who is the best team with 10 or 11 wins? I think the two best of them are in the same division, but Denver and New England have really good arguments also and they might not even have to go through each other for one of them to reach the Super Bowl. In fact, wouldn’t you be a “worse team” in the AFC and an easier road to the Super Bowl than have to play the best team in the NFC West once and potentially even twice?

ESPN’s Efficiency metric

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Games against .500 or better teams

Rams: 6-3

Patriots: 3-2

Seahawks: 3-3

Broncos: 2-2

The Rams have by far the most wins against teams that are .500 or better although I think the two best of those are the 49ers (with Mac Jones) and the Texans, who they didn’t beat as soundly as Seattle did. (Some may wonder why Houston isn’t a “barely beat” game but the Seahawks led by 15 points with 2 minutes left.)

I actually don’t think it’s that important that the Rams beat Mac Jones, but I do think it’s important that they whooped the 49ers 42-26. They also soundly defeated the Jaguars and Bucs (Seattle lost to Tampa Bay of course) but I have to qualify their win over the Colts with the fact that AD Mitchell dropped the ball at the 1-yard line in what would have been a huge score for Indy.

New England has wins over the Panthers, Bucs, and Bills (close), whereas Denver has close wins over the Eagles and Texans.

The Seahawks argument would be less about who they’ve beaten — which is one of the criticisms that skeptics make about Seattle’s record — as it is how they’ve won and the fact that there’s clearly no team they can’t beat. The Seahawks have 40% of all the 30-point halves in the league this year. The two teams most likely to utterly dominate an opponent are the Seahawks and Rams.

Losses

Seahawks: Bucs, Rams, 49ers

Rams: Eagles, 49ers, Panthers

Patriots: Steelers, Raiders

Broncos: Chargers, Colts

Every team that Seattle has lost to should make the playoffs, unless Tampa loses the division to Carolina in which case then every team that L.A. has lost to should make the playoffs. The Patriots lost to the Raiders and it wasn’t that close.

Denver has lost to good teams, especially considering that they lost to the Colts all the way back in Week 2, but again…they almost lost to some of the worst teams in the league. Jets, Raiders, Moons, and Giants. I didn’t include a 20-12 win over the Titans because it wasn’t that close but it also wasn’t that far given that Tennessee is such a bad team.

So yeah this is more evidence to me that the Seahawks and Rams are the two best teams…but it doesn’t stop there.

Double-digit wins

Rams, 7

Seahawks, 6

Patriots, 5

Broncos, 2

I have to give Denver a lot of credit because they’re ranked first in the NFL in both yards per pass attempt allowed AND yards per carry allowed. That’s impressive. However, those results are largely based on dominating some of the league’s worst offenses and the Broncos have only blown out two teams: The Bengals (with Jake Browning) and the Cowboys.

New England has nearly as many blowouts as Seattle and L.A., but I would say they’re on the whole less impressive wins than the Seahawks and Rams.

We’re now going to get into some “rankings” but I know how controversial these lists can be so I’m going to be a little bit diplomatic. Sometimes I won’t even be ranking them necessarily (if they’re on the same line then that means I refuse to rank) and I’ll let you decide for yourself what’s fair.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Rams / Drake Maye, Patriots / Sam Darnold, Seahawks

Bo Nix, Broncos

Three MVP candidates and Bo Nix. As good as Denver’s defense is (I didn’t mention that they’re also first in both third down% allowed and red zone TD% allowed) I think every AFC playoff team has to be rooting for the Broncos to get the 1 seed over the Patriots because Nix is several tiers below Maye as a passer.

Passing Offense

Rams / Seahawks / Patriots

Broncos

Same line of thinking as the QB category but more of an overall assessment of their passing efficiency as a whole: L.A., Seattle, and New England are all top-5 passing offenses on throws of 10+ air yards but with Nix at the helm that keeps Denver in the bottom-10 of the same category. Nix can’t pass downfield which is always a problem against playoff teams.

Nix has a passer rating of 87.2 during Denver’s 10-game winning streak, which according to Next Gen Stats is the 4th-worst passer rating by a QB on a 10+ win streak since 1970. In the three previous cases (Warren Moon, Mark Brunell, and Kerry Collins) the team didn’t win more than one playoff game that season. That’s super relevant to me because those teams won 13+ games but weren’t legitimate Super Bowl threats and it’s easy to put the blame on the passing offense.

According to this chart, nobody has left more yards on the field this season than Nix other than Cam Ward.

Although I would probably put the Seahawks and Rams ahead of the Patriots in general, you have to respect what Drake Maye has done (leading the NFL in EPA and CPOE% and adjusted yards per attempt) without as much of an apparent advantage in terms of supporting cast and coaching staff.

Best Skill Player

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

Puka Nacua, Rams

Stefon Diggs, Patriots

Courtland Sutton, Broncos

I didn’t think it would be this close (and it’s not really close) but Diggs and Sutton are still 6th and 7th in receiving EPA this season. I wasn’t expecting that. (EPA just means that their receptions have been relatively valuable based on game situation.) JSN and Puka are ranked higher.

Diggs has the third-highest Catch Rate Over Expectation among all qualified receivers. Sutton has a worse quarterback situation than the other three, so it’s hard to really blame him for not ranking as highly.

In terms of secondary weapons, Davante Adams has been the most valuable—but only right at the goal line. I’d rank A.J. Barner as Seattle’s second best skill player this season; TreVeyon Henderson for the Patriots; Troy Franklin for the Broncos.

The Seahawks put a lot of eggs in their JSN basket, but maybe they’re trying to get away from that a little bit by trading for Rashid Shaheed.

I’d say Seattle and L.A. have much more depth here than New England and Denver, in addition to having the top two candidates for “best WR” in the league.

Offensive Line

Broncos

Rams

Seahawks

Patriots

A rare offensive “Win” for the Broncos, who are either ranked 1 or 2 on most OL lists. The Rams are the other team usually ranked 1st or 2nd.

Seattle’s definitely improving (and they’re a LOT better than they were last season) and the Seahawks seem solidly ahead of the Patriots, who could still be below-average there.

Rushing Offense

Rams

Broncos

Patriots

Seahawks

The Rams are definitely first and the Broncos are definitely second, whereas the Patriots and Seahawks could be interchanged at third and fourth. Yes Seattle’s been better recently but that doesn’t make them “good” especially coming off of a bit of a struggle on the ground against Atlanta.

The Rams have looked scary on the ground recently, rushing for 249 yards in Week 14 by sharing the ball between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum behind a heavy usage of 13 personnel. That’s the second-most rushing yards that L.A. has had in any game since 2019.

Head Coach

Sean McVay / Mike Macdonald / Sean Payton / Mike Vrabel

I won’t rank them. They should all be in consideration for Coach of the Year.

Non-HC Important Coordinator

Chris Shula, Rams / Klint Kubiak, Seahawks

Josh McDaniels, Patriots

Vance Joseph, Broncos

Unless the expectations are way off, Shula and Kubiak are going to be competing for the top head coach openings in January. Possibly as the top two candidates depending if the franchise wants to go offense or defense.

Joseph should also get some interview interest. Despite being an unsuccessful head coach in Denver in the 2010s, coordinating a number one defense should generate a little bit of interest.

Special Teams

Seahawks (Jay Harbaugh)

Broncos (Darren Rizzi)

Patriots (Jeremy Springer)

Rams (Chase Blackburn)

The Seahawks have the best special teams in the league, as they rank first in both EPA and on ESPN’s Efficiency* metric. The Rams might have one of the worst! They definitely have the worst in this group and 2 of their 3 losses were directly related to special teams mistakes.

*The Patriots are 5th, the Broncos are 13th, and the Rams are 27th.

Defense (top right quadrant is the best):

The Seahawks, Rams, and Texans are the only defenses that rank top-5 in Defensive DVOA, Pass Defense, and Run Defense.

Front-7

Seahawks

Broncos

Rams

Patriots

The Seahawks also rank first in ESPN’s Defensive Efficiency metric. The Rams are third, the Broncos are sixth, and the Patriots are 9th. For a long time Seattle struggled to find one great defensive tackle. Now they have two.

And Jarran Reed would be the best on a few defenses, at least. The next line of defense is Ernest Jones IV (5 interceptions and NFL-leading 150 interception return yards) and Drake Thomas, plus a third linebacker who forced two fumbles-to-touchdowns…in the same game! Tyrice Knight isn’t starting.

By getting 14 sacks from Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, the Seahawks aren’t necessarily asking DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu to lead them in sacks. They still have 5 and 6 respectively, plus they’re helping support the NFL’s best run defense. Is it the best front-7 in the NFL?

The Broncos and Rams are tied for the 4th-best run defense by EPA, whereas the Patriots are 9th.

The Broncos lead the league with 55 sacks (11 more than second place!), while the Seahawks are 4th, the Rams are 7th, and the Patriots are 22nd. New England is a clear 4th place here.

Secondary

Seahawks

Broncos

Rams

Patriots

The Rams and Seahawks are tied for the third-best EPA per pass play allowed, trailing Houston and Jacksonville. Nick Emmanwori is a good tiebreaker here because he’s icing on the cake for a defense that just got back Julian Love and also has Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, Coby Bryant, and Ty Okada. Deep! I mean it’s so deep that Nehemiah Pritchett made the defensive breakup OF THE YEAR and he’s an afterthought.

The Seahawks have a front-7 AND a back-7. Seattle is allowing 7 points per game in the first half which is the best mark in the league. This YouTube video by Billy Stephens breaks down how Macdonald’s defense has changed their blitz tendencies midseason.

I’m giving Denver the edge over L.A. though because the Rams lost Quentin Lake (their best secondary player) and Emmanuel Forbes has turned back into a pumpkin after a midseason hot streak. The Rams don’t have a player like Patrick Surtain II.

The Patriots have good players like Christian Gonzalez but also a couple of weaknesses in the secondary with Craig Woodson and Marcus Jones ranking among the “most touchdowns allowed this year” players.

In this exercise, the Seahawks could actually have the best defensive position group at every level between these four teams. That’s impressive in ANY group of four teams. It’s unbelievable in a group of four 10-win teams.

Seahawks overall rank

Whatever you think of the Rams, one thing is clear to me: The Seahawks are better than every team in the AFC and it’s not that close compared to the two teams with the most wins; Denver and New England could both lose this week and they’d still have the most wins in the AFC because they have a 2-win lead.

They aren’t on the level of the Seahawks and the Rams.

On defense and special teams, there’s little question that Seattle has the advantage. Where L.A. closes the gap is on offense, but specifically I think the Rams have an advantage because of an experiential advantage at play caller and quarterback, which has led to an historic number of short-yardage passing touchdowns by Stafford and Davante Adams. Furthermore I don’t think the Rams have more talent on the offensive line than Seattle, but I do think that the offensive line could be more cohesive and less mistake-prone:

All 5 starters have played together for multiple seasons, including center Coleman Shelton who returned to L.A. after a one-year absence.

Compare that to the Seahawks, an offensive line that has changed the entire coaching staff, the center, the left guard, and re-integrating a right tackle who missed most of the last two seasons; the right guard is just bad. Charles Cross is the only constant as a player but he still has to learn from new coaches. The Rams have had the same play caller since 2017.

Therefore the Rams are a better blocking team, a better running team, and Stafford’s savvy enough by now to know how to work around the OL’s shortcomings. Sam Darnold is savvy too but he’s literally on a new team every season.

It’s okay to admit that the Rams have a better offense right now — it would be shocking if they didn’t! — and it won’t mean that the Seahawks couldn’t beat them…soundly. Despite all the new moving parts, Seattle is 2nd in scoring (and 2nd in scoring on the road), 8th in points per drive, 1st in Y/A, and 1st in points per play. The Rams are 1st in offensive touchdowns, but the Seahawks are 6th and that’s really good for a team that overhauled the offense in the offseason.

Seattle’s offense is so good that I would be willing to say “Of course they’re better than L.A.!”….if it wasn’t for the fact that the Rams also have a great defense this season. Both teams are great on both sides of the ball. Yes, the Seahawks are better on special teams—will that help Seattle get the win over L.A. that they couldn’t get in Week 11?

I can’t rank the Seahawks over the Rams or the Rams over the Seahawks. These are the two best teams and the fact that they are in the same conference — the same division — means that the Super Bowl could be a formality that happens after the championship game.

Seaside Joe 2474