These 2 big flaws haven't held the Seahawks back (yet)
The offense can make franchise history but can the Seahawks get the run going?
Teams never do what the Seattle Seahawks are doing right now: The Seahawks are an elite scoring team with a bottom-5 rushing offense. Is that a sustainable recipe for success and did we see the first signs of life with a season-best 198 rushing yards against the Cardinals and a new center? Or does the imbalance increase Sam Darnold’s odds of winning MVP given that he’s on track to set some statistical marks that have never happened before despite being 29th in yards per carry?
Assuming that Seattle’s quarterback can do a better job of protecting the football and beats the Rams on Sunday.
The Seahawks are averaging 30.6 points per game, which is almost 2 points higher than the franchise record of 28.7 points per game, which they did in 2020 (ranked 8th that year). Although the Seahawks led the league in scoring in 2005, they averaged 28.3 points per game that season. And despite a late surge in 2012 by averaging 42.5 points per game over the last four weeks, Seattle only ended up at 25.8 that year.
Klint Kubiak’s side of the ball is 100 points shy of matching the Seahawks’ entire scoring output in 2024, a mark Seattle could surpass in the next three games at this rate.
The Seahawks have scored at least 30 points in five games already, which is only 3 games shy of the franchise record of eight games in 2020.
They still have eight games to go, although Seattle’s next test is against a Rams defense currently ranked second in points allowed (17 per game) and the one time L.A. gave up over 26 points was Week 3 against the Eagles…that was only because Philadelphia returned a blocked FG for a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game.
Whether or not the Seahawks can still be a 30-point offense against the Rams is one of the biggest questions facing Seattle this season given the implications in the NFC West race and their potential playoff matchups.
This upcoming showdown will be a feature presentation of the two quarterbacks, Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford, because the Seahawks are the third-ranked scoring team in the league without having many strong games on the ground at this point, one of two areas that Seattle has to resolve:
29th in yards per carry (3.8)
31st in turnovers (32nd in fumbles, 19th in INTs)
I was curious how many teams have scored 30 points per game without a strong running game and there aren’t many results, but at least all of these teams were extremely successful. These four teams scored at least 30 points per game (in the 16-game era) but averaged under 4.0 yards per carry:
—The ‘91 Redskins averaged 30.3 points per game and ranked 18th in yards per carry. They went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl.
—The ‘94 49ers averaged 31.6 points per game and ranked 7th in yards per carry. They went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl.
—The 2011 Packers averaged 35 points per game and ranked 26th in yards per carry. They went 15-1 and were upset by the Giants in the playoffs. (In that loss, Green Bay had a season-best 147 rushing yards but turned it over four times.)
—The 2012 Broncos averaged 30.1 points per game and ranked 25th in yards per carry. They went 13-3 and also lost their only playoff game, which was also to the eventual Super Bowl winners (Ravens).
There have only been five teams to average 30 points per game in the 17-game era and they could all run the football much better than Seattle has so far. There are two teams scoring more points per game than the Seahawks right now: the Colts are first in rushing (Jonathan Taylor being an MVP candidate) and the Lions average 4.7 yards per carry.
So how can the Seahawks offense get away with this? Seattle is dead last in passing attempts (25.7 per game) but sixth in passing yards (246.1) and they’ve lost the fewest yards on sacks (62) in the league, a testament to why the passing offense is DO-MIN-AT-ING every other team by net yards/attempt.
Credit to Kubiak, credit to the improvements made on the offensive line, and credit to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s race towards Offensive Player of the Year, but at this point we should no longer be afraid to say…
Sam Darnold is ELITE
I thought Darnold was overhyped at USC. I didn’t understand why he had so many people defending him when he was on the Jets and Panthers. I thought the Vikings overpaid him as a free agent who probably wouldn’t start over J.J. McCarthy for long. And even this past summer I was very consistent in my messages about Darnold, which was basically:
“Darnold’s going to be good enough to keep the job all year, but he’s not going to be that good.”
He’s been better than that good. I have never felt this confident watching a quarterback play for the Seahawks before. Every pass feels like it’s going to be a completion for 10 yards when it comes out of his hand, which is probably because…every pass practically is a completion for 10 yards.
Darnold is completing 71.1% of his passes and averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt.
No quarterback has ever had a season with a completion rate over 70 and 10 yards per pass. In fact, a QB has never averaged 9.9 Y/A over a full season. Darnold could be the first and he’s the only quarterback who is particularly close to it right now because he leads the NFL in Y/A BY A FULL YARD: Drake Maye is averaging 8.9 Y/A in second place. Brock Purdy set a record with 9.6 Y/A in 2023 and Darnold is on track to crush that.
Of the six quarterbacks to average at least 9.0 Y/A, Matt Ryan won MVP in 2016, Aaron Rodgers won MVP in 2011, Peyton Manning won MVP in 2004, and Dan Marino won MVP in 1984.
Lynn Dickey, a 0-time Pro Bowler, came out of nowhere to finish fifth in MVP voting in 1983, and Purdy finished fourth in 2023.
If you compare Darnold’s stats to the four MVP seasons up there, his 7.5% TD rate would be third, ahead of Ryan’s 7.1, his 116.5 passer rating would be third, ahead of Marino, and his yards per completion mark of 14.0 would tie Marino for the best among them.
Darnold’s 9.9 Y/A is the 4th-highest mark in history through his team’s first 9 games and a minimum of 200 pass attempts, behind only Kurt Warner in 2000 (10.6), Otto Graham in 1953 (10.3), and Norm Van Brocklin in 1954 (10.1). (Warner actually did finish that season at 9.9 Y/A but missed five games and didn’t even have 400 attempts.)
So in the last 70 years, you’ve got Warner when he was in the middle of a generational run and Darnold. I’m not going to say that Darnold is now set in stone as an “elite quarterback” forever (Ryan Fitzpatrick had an outlier season with the Bucs in 2018 and had very comparable numbers to Darnold) but for this time period and since Week 2 he’s been nearly unstoppable.
Darnold’s 5 games with over 10 Y/A this season is the most (Maye is the only other QB with more than 2)
His 6 games with over 110 passer rating is the most (3 QBs have 5)
His 8 games with over 12 yards per catch is the most (Maye has 7, Dan Jones has 6, nobody else has more than 4)
And don’t get me started on what would happen if we started combining some of these stats. Also, did you notice how many long completions the Seahawks have this season and how consistent they are? A completion of at least 32 yards in all 9 games…a completion of at least 40 yards in 7 games.
Darnold leads the NFL with 9 completions of 40+ yards (two more than second place Jalen Hurts and three times as many as Stafford) and his 5 completions of 50+ yards is tied with Maye for the most (nobody else has more than 3).
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The MVP frontrunner could be decided this week
I can’t emphasize enough how little I actually care about the MVP award, that part just kind of came up naturally as I was researching the history of similar QB seasons, and I also think there’s almost no chance it would ever go to Darnold. He’d lose to Stafford because of a comparison of their reputations and he’d lose to Maye because of the perception that he’s a second-year player excelling on a team with no supporting cast. At least the Stafford debate could be settled this week.
In addition to leading the league in Y/A and Y/completion, Darnold also leads the NFL in QBR (77.7) and adjusted Y/A. He’s third in completion percentage and has the second-lowest sack rate largely because Kubiak’s been so great at designing plays and Darnold’s been so great at being just elusive enough to avoid sacks and get off quick throws, often while on the move.
It helps that he’s doing so for an offense scoring 30 points per game without the aid of a rushing attack.
And when people ask me, “Well, how do you KNOW that these numbers are because of Darnold and not because he’s been dropped into the perfect situation?” all I can say is that it’s because my eyes told me. How does the Supreme Court know when something is pornography? Because they know it when they see it and probably because it gave them a computer virus.
If you’re reading this newsletter than you’ve probably watched as much or more Seahawks football than I have, meaning that we’ve all experienced a long lineage of Seattle quarterbacks in the last 50 years, in addition to quarterbacks on other teams. I know it when I see it: This is extremely high-level quarterback play by Sam Darnold.
Darnold in Seahawks history
There are ways to appreciate how Geno Smith brought something different than Russell Wilson when Seattle needed it, and Wilson brought something different than Matt Hasselbeck, who brought something different than Warren Moon, who brought something different than Dave Krieg, until finally you get to Jim Zorn. They all had their unique talents.
From what I’ve seen in 9 games, Darnold is as talented as any quarterback could be in 2025 and that’s not to be unexpected given that he was such a high draft pick and was already so good with the Vikings last season.
At this pace, Darnold would set single-season franchise records for:
Completion Percentage, 71.1%
Passer Rating, 116.5
Y/A, 9.9
Sack rate, 4.4%
QBR, 77.7
With the 17th game, Darnold might surpass Smith’s recent record for passing yards (4,320) at a time when the Seahawks have turned the ball over in all but one game (Jaguars) and have overcome and win both times that they turned it over 3+ times (Texans, Cardinals), a hard thing to do even once…
In fact, only one team won more than 2 games last year while turning it over at least 3 times. Can you guess which team and which quarterback?
The Seahawks rushed for 198 yards against the Cardinals, partly because they built such an immense lead in the first half and partly because Olu Oluwatimi is a better run blocker than Jalen Sundell (plus Robbie Ouzts, who I’ve not mentioned enough). But the Rams have a top-10 rush defense (top-5 by some numbers) and Seattle probably won’t have an early 35-point lead. Darnold will have to have best game of the season, no turnovers, and better awareness when backed against his own end zone.
He will also have a new center, a week to have worked with Rashid Shaheed, and a little bit of unique history on his side.
Seaside Joe 2444
They may have paltry ypc but you better know they are going to run 50% of the time, come hell or high water. Which is why the passing game remains pretty wide open despite the damage people realize they’re going to suffer.
This is where Grubb missed the boat (well ok, one of the places Grubb missed the boat). If you run 50% of the time, every time, the defense will cheat up and the passing game will open up. But you can’t just fake a run like constant play action. You gotta actually run…and run…and run…
So I have begun to take our ineffective running game as hugely effective in accomplishing its role, to open the field up for the passing game.
All hail MacDonald for knowing what he wanted. All hail Schneider for going after the OC who could scheme it. And all hail Kubiak for actually delivering it.
These running stats are tough to know what to make of because of the context. When games are decided in the first half, the y/c are going to suffer in the second. When you stubbornly run into loaded boxes knowing the payoff will come in the explosive passing game, then y/c are going to suffer. We're still middle of the pack in total rushing yards, and top ten in attempts. I think we can ignore the 3.8 y/c to some degree. Instead, consider that we are 7-2 and have the 7th most rushing attempts in the league and are tied for 6th in rushing TDs. That sounds like an impactful running game.