Patriots RB contract sets tone for Ken Walker-Seahawks negotiations

When it's time to extend Ken Walker or Zach Charbonnet, the Rhamondre Stevenson deal will play a factor: Seaside Joe 1937

Last night, I was way behind on my non-negotiable daily habits but that gave me an opportunity to stop and think about why I’ve managed to successfully get through every day without missing any non-negotiables for the past five years. I only give myself ONE problem to solve.

That one thing that I have to answer everyday is simply this: “How do I complete all of the remaining tasks before I go to bed?”

That’s it. That’s really all I have to do, even if there are a lot of mini-tasks underneath that umbrella, it’s still only one assignment. It was almost midnight and I knew that it would take me a couple of hours to get through the checklist of remaining non-negotiables, but all I had to do was plan the order I’d complete those tasks in before bed. I’ve done it many times before, there’s no lack of confidence in completing the tasks before bed and there shouldn’t be because I’m the one who came up with the checklist. I wouldn’t give myself more than I could handle, I’m a “cool boss” like that…

Plus, I never have to think about anything other than the one problem I have to solve, which again is just getting everything done before bed. Whether I do almost everything in the morning or almost everything after midnight, it’s going to get done and I don’t have to solve other riddles like, “How can I make this up tomorrow?” or “How can I trick myself into not being guilt-ridden over the fact that I let myself down?”

One problem: Here’s a checklist, get it done before you fall asleep, you know that you can do everything on the list.

As you have already guessed from reading this far, I think that the “one problem” method works just as well if you’re John Schneider or Mike Macdonald or anyone running—let’s call it ‘a business’ for these purposes—and needing to make many multi-million dollar decisions in an intense, high-pressure industry where you make a lot of different choices that could result in you getting fired:

Give yourself non-negotiable achievable tasks intended to make you a little bit better everyday and that all fall under the umbrella of only having one real problem to solve.

For example…let’s talk about players drafted by the Seattle Seahawks.

What’s the one problem to solve with players you draft?

On Thursday, the New England Patriots signed running back Rhamondre Stevenson to a four-year, $36 million contract with $17 million guaranteed. If there’s any GM who’s ears perked up when hearing the news, it’s the one who has drafted second round running backs in each of the two years prior to 2024.

Stevenson transferred to Oklahoma in 2019 and similar to Chris Carson at Oklahoma State, didn’t play a lot of snaps over two years but always looked effective at the position when he did. I’d also say both look like real gym rats. Carson had 213 carries and 1,076 yards with 298 receiving yards at OSU. Stevenson had 165 carries for 1,180 yards with 298 receiving yards at Oklahoma.

Carson ended up as a seventh round pick, but perhaps because Stevenson is bigger, better at pass protecting, and was considered more durable at draft time than Carson, he was a fourth round pick by the Patriots in 2021. Stevenson was paired with Damien Harris as a rookie, but then took over as the lead back in 2022 and had 1,040 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and 69 catches for 421 yards with six touchdowns and four fumbles.

Stevenson missed five games in 2023 and ended up playing fewer snaps than free agent signee Ezekiel Elliott. It was a bad year for the Patriots all around, so even though Stevenson’s numbers were much worse (619 yards, 4.0 YPC, 38 catches, 4 TD), it has only taken three seasons for New England to know that with so few players on the roster worth paying in the future that Stevenson is one guy they need to keep.

Unfortunately and fortunately, those bold words DO apply to the Seahawks right now.

The Patriots only had one problem to solve: “How do we keep Rhamondre Stevenson on the team past his rookie contract?”

A more general way to put that with universal applicability: “How do we keep all the drafted players who we consider ‘hits’ past their rookie contracts?”

In a sick way that nobody would envy in their right mind, the Patriots don’t have to play a Jenga game to keep all of their good players. In 2021, the Patriots drafted Mac Jones (traded to the Jaguars) in the first round and defensive tackle Christian Barmore in the second round; New England signed Barmore to a four-year extension in April because they didn’t have anything to solve except how to keep Barmore.

The answer in the NFL is usually easy: Pay him the lowest amount possible that will still be satisfactory to the player, which in Barmore’s case was $84 million. In a running back’s case, it is less money, but it will still be “a lot” of money to keep Kenneth Walker on a second contract if Stevenson’s deal is any indication of where the league is headed.

The Seaside Joe subscription gift is a great way to do something nice for a friend, for yourself, and for Seaside Joe:

What does Ken Walker cost as long as he’s healthy?

In Stevenson’s case, which is definitely more relevant to the Seahawks than Barmore as it pertains to decisions Schneider might have to make in 2025, his $9 million average annual salary now ranks seventh in the entire NFL. The running back market essentially breaks down into four tiers at the top:

1-The $19 mllion Christian McCaffrey Tier (resident: McCaffrey)

2-The $15 million Alvin Kamara Tier (resident: Kamara)

3-The $13 million tier (residents: Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs)

4-The $7-$10 million tier

Well, McCaffrey’s tier doesn’t matter to anyone except McCaffrey and the 49ers. It’s not meaningless, but it is an outlier that won’t apply to many players in the next 2-5 years, at least. The Alvin Kamara tier is about to be handled, one way or another. Kamara wants the Saints to re-do his contract, and so would New Orleans I’m sure, but for opposite reasons. I can’t imagine any future in which a team is paying Kamara $15 million per year in 2025.

Then you’ve got those three running backs making more than the other starting veteran running backs who are considered good, which now includes Stevenson despite only having one 1,000-yard season. That’s typically how anyone judges a running back—”how many total yards?”—but Stevenson gets a bump for blocking and pass protecting and I think just being one of the best players on a team sorely lacking in talent.

Joe Mixon’s new deal with the Texans, Derrick Henry’s new deal with the Ravens, D’Andre Swift’s new deal with the Bears, Tony Pollard’s new deal with the Titans, and Aaron Jones’s new deal with the Vikings all fall between $7 and $9.875 million per year and usually only one of the years on the deal feels guaranteed in most circumstances.

In the world of gathering information to understand what the current market rate for NFL players is at any given moment, 2024 has been like the discovery of the Terracotta Warriors…but for running backs instead of ancient guards in the afterlife. (I guess in either case, whether it’s Terracotta Warriors or Running Backs, we’re talking about relics.)

This information breaks down in a very simple format though when discussing what Kenneth Walker III could cost on his next contract, or eventually Zach Charbonnet:

“Did he win Offensive Player of the Year or MVP?”

If yes: You need to pay 2x what you expected to pay

If no: Keep scrolling.

“Is he an All-Pro or perennial Pro Bowler?”

If yes: You need to pay $12-$15 million per season

If no: Keep scrolling.

You might think that a first-team All-Pro would be worth as much as McCaffrey, or at least Kamara, but you’d be wrong. Josh Jacobs was a first-team All-Pro and arguably the top running back in the NFL in 2022, when he was only 24, but the former first round pick got the $11.8 million franchise tag from the Raiders, then signed a $12 million per season deal with the Packers.

“He’s not a Pro Bowler, but do you fuckin’ love this guy, bro?”

If yes: See Rhamondre Stevenson

If no: Then you’re probably not going to extend him

The Patriots re-signed Stevenson out of their love of Stevenson and it cost them $9 million per season with half of the contract guaranteed. It doesn’t matter as much that he didn’t have 1,000 yards or that he isn’t as publicized as some other backs because they were early draft picks or fantasy superstars…if you love the player, you keep the player and you pay the player an amount that he finds satisfactory.

What we have found in recent years is that a lot of teams don’t love their running backs, even when they draft them relatively early:

Saquon is on the Giants, Jacobs is on the Packers, Swift is on the Bears, Pollard is on the Titans, Jones is on the Vikings, Miles Sanders is on the Panthers, and Austin Ekeler is on the Moons. Of teams that did extend the backs they drafted, McCaffrey was traded, Mixon went to the Texans, and now Derrick Henry is on the Ravens.

But ultimately a GM should only have one problem to solve with the players drafted by the team: “How do I keep all of the young players we want to keep past their rookie contracts?”

Is Ken Walker one of those players? If yes, then the team will figure it out. They always do. If no, then it’s not even a problem you need to solve.

Is it too early to discuss a Ken Walker extension?

That’s an understandable reaction to this article and I don’t blame you if that’s what you’ve been thinking the entire read. Walker has only played two seasons in the NFL and even if he has another good year in 2024, the Seahawks don’t need to do anything to his contract until 2026. Even if Walker has an incredible year that vaults him into the McCaffrey tier, the franchise tag system was created and pushed for approval by owners because it gives the team the power to keep almost whoever they want for as long as they want.

But as we’ve seen in those rare instances where a franchise doesn’t keep the players they want to keep—therefore ruining the “one problem” method—you can run into complications when you have more than one franchise tag-worthy free agent at a time who won’t sign his extension offer.

Just this year, the Chiefs couldn’t keep both Chris Jones and L’Jarius Sneed, so they traded Sneed to the Titans for a 2025 third round pick. Similarly, the Dolphins may have hated to lose Christian Wilkins to the Raiders in free agency, but Miami’s cap is a mess and they have too many players that they’ve already paid or need to pay, including a recent extension for Jaylen Waddle.

Despite Seattle’s lack of 2025 cap space on the books right now, the last thing the Seahawks have to worry about in the next two years is having too many good players to pay. That’s something I covered in the “$120 million in cap decisions” article and nine-ish months from now we’ll be talking a lot about Schneider’s cap casualties. The only veteran contracts on Seattle’s books in 2026 are Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, and Jason Myers, and that is a contract year for all three of those players. That’s even if they’re still on the team in 2026.

That will also be a contract year for Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, unless they get the fifth-year option for 2027, which is looking probable so far. In either case, those players wouldn’t actually be expensive on the books until 2027 at the soonest. The Seahawks’ salary cap situation should in theory be GREAT NEWS for any decent player drafted by Seattle since 2021.

Well, the 2021 class wasn’t good, so we can ignore that.

The 2022 class has Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, Walker, Abe Lucas, Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen, and Dareke Young.

The 2023 class has Witherspoon, JSN, Derick Hall, Zach Charbonnet, Anthony Bradford, Cameroun Young, Mike Morris, Olu Olu, Jerrick Reed, Kenny McIntosh, and signee Jake Bobo.

So from everything we’ve covered so far, does it now become apparent why extending Walker next offseason could be a priority? Because Seattle’s 2022 draft class might end up having too many good players to play a risky game with the franchise tag.

Ken Walker’s next contract

Of course, we do all want and need to see Walker have a healthy season in 2024, even though as we just saw, Stevenson didn’t have a healthy season in 2023. That’s another reason why Walker might deserve a contract extension in 2025 even if he’s not a Pro Bowl running back. Stevenson is not a Pro Bowl running back, but the Patriots love him and he makes their jobs that much easier by not needing to go find a replacement. He’s doing the job to the degree that New England is happy with and that’s enough.

Walker has had a better rushing career than Stevenson through two seasons, rushing for 1,955 yards and 17 touchdowns with 4.4 yards per carry, plus 56 catches for 424 yards in the air. Walker has one career fumble and that’s carries over from a college career in which he never fumbled. (He might have fumbled once, I might be forgetting one.) He’s going into a new offensive system, one that might even benefit Charbonnet a little more than it does his skills, but this backfield should continue to be a true duo if the Seahawks want to realize their vision when both players were drafted in the second round.

I know that Pete Carroll is gone, so that vision is a little blurry, but I don’t see any downside to trying to keep both running backs long-term because the general idea at hand is to have two fresh, high-level starting backs for the entire season and playoffs. If Seattle attempts to replace Walker through the draft in 2025 or 2026, good luck: Few players come into the league at the position running a 4.38 and with near the same amount of burst, explosiveness, creativity, elusiveness, and patience as Walker: His 10 carries per broken tackle in 2023 was twice as good as it was during his rookie season and ranked eighth in the NFL.

I still believe in Walker’s ceiling to become an elite NFL running back, which it makes it difficult to project a contract: Either he’s an OPOY type of player who wants $15 million+ per season, OR he kind of stays on the track he was in 2023, which to me reads more like a $10 million per season player.

Yeah, I think the version of Kenneth Walker we’ve seen so far, if healthy, should be able to get a four-year, $40 million contract. If he goes above and beyond in Ryan Grubb’s offense, then Walker will get even more. But regardless of anything that happens this season or next season, let’s get one thing extremely clear prior to ending this article: John Schneider’s job with regards to keeping Walker—or any of the 2022 draft class—is a super simple one?

If you want to keep him, you’ll get it done before it’s too late.

Trying to solve answers to new problems that you’ve only created as a way to get out of your original commitment is only going to stress you out, slow you down, and turns a simple task to a complicated puzzle. The key to negotiating?

Never negotiate.

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