Concerns that don't make me concerned

3 things about the Seahawks that worry some fans, but not me

I’m not worried about whether or not…

If Sam Darnold will be good enough

In his ‘5 things to watch in OTAs’ article on Tuesday, Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times hit on a few key points that I also addressed myself a couple of days earlier in the newsletter about Jalen Milroe. Specifically, the comparison of Darnold and Milroe to Russell Wilson v. Matt Flynn in 2012 (including the number of career starts prior to signing with Seattle) and the red zone numbers for Geno Smith and Darnold in 2024.

But regardless of what has happened in the past for different Seahawks quarterbacks, there is little doubt in my mind that Darnold will be a good enough starter for the next couple of seasons, at least.

For example, let’s compare Darnold to another Vikings quarterback who left in free agency after a breakout season:

• Case Keenum: 325/481 for 3,547 yards, 22 TD, 7 INT in 14 starts, NFC Championship game appearance for Vikings in 2017

• Sam Darnold: 361/545 for 4,319 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT in 17 starts, 14-3 record and wild card loss

By these numbers, fans might be worried that Darnold could be a one-season flash-in-the-pan like Keenum. But there are huge differences in how they got there and where they went after Minnesota.

Keenum was a former undrafted free agent who had started 24 games prior to landing with the Vikings as a backup option to Sam Bradford, who by the way was also enjoying career-best success in Minnesota until then. The Vikings were an ideal setup for a quarterback at the time with Stefon Diggs and prime Adam Thielen; Bradford completed over 71% of his passes a year earlier. And the Vikings had the number one defense in the NFL.

First in points allowed, first in yards allowed, first in third down defense, and offensively they were second in rushing attempts.

Darnold not only had more production and individual success in Minnesota than Keenum did seven years earlier, he didn’t have anything close to a number one defense and the Vikings were 14th in rushing attempts. The Vikings put a lot more weight on Darnold’s arm than they did Keenum’s and though Justin Jefferson is an all-time level superstar, the overall supporting casts from 2017 and 2024 might be closer in comparison than we’d assume.

It was kind of a shitshow when Keenum arrived as a free agent in Denver with the Broncos in 2018. At the end of the season, they fired head coach Vance Joseph and the rest of the staff. Seahawks fans can’t guarantee that the team will be good next season, but it sure looks like they have more points in their favor than the 2018 Broncos:

• Better defense

• Better coaching

• Better receiving weapons

• More emphasis and talent in the run game

Darnold comes to Seattle with extensive experience and all the physical tools to be a top-10 quarterback. But even if he’s just a serviceable quarterback, and that appears to be the floor for Darnold, that’s not “bad”. It’s serviceable and therefore workable for at least two seasons.

I’m not concerned if Darnold will be an MVP candidate because those weren’t the expectations, and I’m not concerned if Darnold will end up getting benched this year because at this point it seems very unlikely.

If the Seahawks need to add a starting CB

Seattle has kicked the tires on veteran free agent corners Shaquill Griffin and Rasul Douglas, and if they sign one or both of them that’s fine, but the Seahawks won’t have their playoff fate determined by a weakness in the secondary.

In fact, not only do the Seahawks need to be more concerned with fixing themselves on the inside (C/G/DL/LB) before worrying about the players on the outside (WR/CB), but also Seattle’s outside players are…PRETTY GOOD!

• Invested a top-5 pick in Devon Witherspoon

• Picked a day 3 steal with Tariq Woolen

• Julian Love is a Pro Bowler/borderline top-5 safety

• Coby Bryant has been much better since moving to safety

• Invested a top-35 pick in Nick Emmanwori

• Josh Jobe could be no worse than Michael Jackson

The Seahawks could have anywhere from 1 to 4 Pro Bowl players in their secondary right now, so while it makes sense to gauge the price and health of someone like Douglas (18 starts with the Bills in 2024, including playoffs) it shouldn’t matter to fans if Seattle ultimately enters training camp with the cornerbacks and safeties who they already have on the roster.

Even the Legion of Boom — the most highly-regarded secondary in NFL history — shared over 1,000 snaps in 2013 with Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond, and Jeremy Lane. Those are fine players, but they’re also replaceable players, especially if the system works for them and if there are a few stars (like Witherspoon, Woolen, and Love could all be, not to mention the potential of Emmanwori) in place around them.

If Cooper Kupp can fill the void at WR

Could Kupp miss 5 games next season, as he has for the last three? His odds of missing games due to injury are definitely higher than most starting wide receivers, that can’t be denied.

But two other things could also be true:

• It’s football, literally ANY player could miss the season due to injury, even the most unlikely ones

• Kupp could get a little lucky and turn out to be totally fine for all 17 games

Kupp’s approach, mindset, and work ethic through past rehabs has been compared to the best ever by an athlete. Admittedly that has not helped Kupp avoid continuous injuries/flare ups in 2022, 2023, and 2024, but it’s still relevant that at 32 he’s still approaching next season like he’s 22 and that maybe in his mind he’ll play 10 more years after this.

After the 2024 season, Kupp also made some interesting comments about the Rams offense and subtly suggested that he wasn’t getting as many opportunities to produce as he felt he deserved:

"Yeah, it's been frustrating," Kupp said Monday as Rams players cleaned out their lockers and began their offseason. "I mean, there's been obviously just as a team, there are ups and downs, there's all these things you're weathering through offensively. Things that I feel like we are gonna be like, 'Man, we should be better than the product we're putting out there in terms of the production and the points that are being scored. And then just, for me personally, feeling like, 'Man, there's things I'm watching film, feeling good about football and playing, but you know, production wise, it's not showing up.' A lot of that stuff is outside of my control and it is frustrating.

So yeah, there's frustration there, and obviously, I want to be able to feel like I'm impacting games, and that's done on a much more discreet level for a lot of these games. And that is what it is, but I can look back on the season, be happy with what I put on tape and things that I was being asked to do, I was actually doing my job and that's all you can do."

Kupp has always been praised for the effort he gives as a blocker and when he doesn’t get targeted. Perhaps he’s alluding to that effort and the fact that the Rams have moved onto Puka Nacua as the present and future at wide receiver in L.A..

Despite being “demoted” to WR2, Kupp still averaged 60 yards per game over the past two seasons, which translates to about 90 catches for 1,025 yards and 8 TD per season over a 17-game pace.

In DK Metcalf’s past four seasons with the Seahawks, he averaged 74 catches for 1,030 yards and 8 touchdowns.

So what are we really talking about when we say that Seattle had to “downgrade” the wide receiver position by trading Metcalf (which allowed the team to save money AND draft Emmanwori) and signing Kupp? The raw numbers would be almost the same — if Kupp is healthy — and he also:

• Has a much, much higher career catch rate

• Has way, way, WAY fewer penalties

• Is perhaps (by my powers of speculation) a better mentor/example setter for Seattle’s young receivers

There is certainly a lot hinging on Kupp’s ability to stay healthy and that is a valid concern, especially at 32, and the two receivers in comparison here offer very different profiles in terms of size, speed, and roles within an offense. That’s also something that can’t be ignored: Kupp isn’t directly replacing Metcalf.

But just in terms of the void of having 150 targets go to Metcalf now go to Kupp, or 100 targets, I have zero concerns on whether Kupp is still capable of being a quality starting NFL wide receiver and I actually believe there’s a chance that from a wide angle lens view of the team, salary cap, and Klint Kubiak’s new offense, the Seahawks might get a net POSITIVE from the change.

DK Metcalf has big shoes to fill (as I would also say about Tyler Lockett, if not for the fact that he should have been replaced a year sooner) and Cooper Kupp could never fit into them because they’re just not the same type of receiver, nor would they wear the same size.

However, as a teammate and a target for Darnold, I am not concerned about whether or not Kupp is a good addition for the team in 2025.

Seaside Joe 2276