12s+14='26 (Super Bowl)

The ghosts of Sam Darnold's past must be haunted by his present and future

12 was an even more relevant number for the Seattle Seahawks this season than it typically has been in the past, which is saying a lot for a franchise that has attached its identity to a number.

It’s been 12 years since the Seahawks won their first and only Super Bowl title.

Their critical victory that practically guaranteed that Sunday’s NFC Championship game would be in Seattle, the 38-37 OT win over the Rams in Week 16, was the Seahawks’ 12th win of the season.

Sam Darnold only needed to complete 12 passes for the Seahawks to blowout the 49ers in the divisional round. Darnold already had 12 completions by halftime yesterday.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught his 12th touchdown of the season on Sunday, a go-ahead score that gave Seattle a lead that they never relinquished.

And it was on March 12th, the first day of free agency, that the Seahawks made the following transactions official: Trade Geno Smith, trade DK Metcalf, sign DeMarcus Lawrence, and sign Sam Darnold.

12s+number 14=2026 Super Bowl.

And then there’s this:

Seahawks set an NFL record for wins over teams that won at least 12 games.

Seattle’s 6 wins over teams with 12+ wins (49ers x2, Rams x2, Texans, Jaguars) is more than the 1990 Bills, 1999 Titans, 2003 Patriots, and 2018 Patriots (all had 5). The last two Patriots teams ended up winning the Super Bowl.

If the Seahawks win the Super Bowl over the Patriots, they’ll end the season with 7 such wins. (3 playoff wins over teams that won 12 regular season games would also tie the record and as you can imagine the previous eight teams to do it all won the Super Bowl.)

Seahawks vs 12-win teams:

• Week 1: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13 (L)

• Week 6: Seahawks 20, Jaguars 12 (W)

• Week 7: Seahawks 27, Texans 19 (W)

• Week 11: Rams 19, Seahawks 17 (L)

• Week 16: Seahawks 38, Rams 37 OT (W)

• Week 18: Seahawks 13, 49ers 3 (W)

• DIV: Seahawks 41, 49ers 6 (W)

• NFC CG: Seahawks 31, Rams 27 (W)

In Seattle’s two losses to 12-win teams, they allowed an average of 18 points and lost by a combined 6 points and were in striking distance both times.

If the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, they will set a new franchise record with 17 wins. They would become the 12th franchise to have a season with 17 wins.

(The Patriots just did it for the fifth time, which is three more times than any other franchise...but Mike Macdonald is very young.)

5th team’s a Darn

Sam Darnold started at USC from 2016-2017 and the Trojans went 21-6, which really doesn’t seem that unusual until you use the benefit of hindsight:

• USC went 8-6 the year before Darnold and 5-7 the year after Darnold

• Instead of having Pete Carroll, Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, or Lincoln Riley as a head coach, Darnold had…Clay Helton*

• Darnold’s only NFL-caliber offensive teammate in 2016 was JuJu Smith-Schuster and his only NFL-caliber teammate in 2017 was Michael Pittman, but he barely played

*if you don’t know the context of this one, Helton is many levels below those other coaches

With that USC team around him, Darnold faces an NFL caliber defense (Ohio State) in the Cotton Bowl and still throws for 356 yards in a loss.

Cut to the 2018 draft and the Browns draft Baker Mayfield at number one, but more importantly the Giants draft Saquon Barkley at number two in lieu of a quarterback successor to Eli Manning, which is what most Giants fans expected the team would do instead of taking a running back.

Darnold goes to the Jets at pick three and is therefore forced into a situation with Todd Bowles as the head coach and Jeremy Bates (the same coach who Pete Carroll fired after one season in Seattle) as the OC in 2018. His top two receivers were Robbie Chosen and Jermaine Kearse.

Then New York fires Bowles and Bates, replacing them with Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains, and that’s who Darnold is stuck with for the next two seasons; neither Gase nor Loggains have worked in the NFL since the Jets fired them at the end of the 2020 season, which is also when Darnold was traded to the Panthers.

Darnold goes to a Panthers team with Matt Rhule as the head coach and Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator, but Brady was fired after 12 games and replaced with Jeff Nixon, who is then later replaced by Ben McAdoo in 2022. Then Rhule gets fired five games into 2022 and is replaced by Steve Wilks.

In case you’re counting:

• Bates, no longer in the NFL

• Gase, no longer in the NFL

• Loggains, no longer in the NFL

• Nixon, no longer in the NFL

• Rhule, no longer in the NFL

• McAdoo, in the NFL (as a DEFENSIVE consultant*)

*on the new england patriots; revenge storyline?

The best offensive coach that Darnold had during his first 5 NFL seasons is easily Joe Brady, the current (and still often maligned) OC of the Bills. For now. And aside from two years in Carolina with D.J. Moore, Darnold never had a legitimate receiving weapon in New York or Carolina.

When Gase and Rhule watched the NFC Championship, did they see a ghost?

In 2023, Kyle Shanahan became Sam Darnold’s fifth different head coach and sixth different OC in six years.

In 2024, Kevin O’Connell made it six and seven in seven. And finally given a competent coaching staff, a receivers room with multiple players who would start on all 32 teams, and the support of a run game, Darnold finished fifth in passing yards and touchdowns (35) and helped the Vikings go 14-3. In 95 out of 100 seasons, that record would give you a playoff home game and usually a bye week, but unfortunately the Vikings were in a division with the 15-2 Lions.

Who cares if Darnold lost to the Lions—most teams don’t have to worry about winning a game in Week 18 when they’re 14-2!

Minnesota willingly fed the narrative that their last two losses were all Darnold’s fault and handed the reins to J.J. McCarthy without so much as giving the Seahawks a bidding war.

As present, McCarthy joins Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and Bryce Young as quarterbacks who succeeded Darnold and are not currently anywhere close to a Super Bowl.

As you already know, Mike Macdonald and Klint Kubiak became Darnold’s head coach #7 and OC #8 in 2025 (Darnold’s price tag ranks 18th in average salary, 23rd in guarantees, and 20th in 2025 cap hit) and if Sunday is any indication of Kubiak’s spice-o-meter on the coaching circuit, it’s onto OC #9 in 2026.

The power of Klint compelled Darnold to exorcise his demons known as facing the Rams team that knocked him out of the playoffs last year and also intercepted him six straight times to start 2025. Since his sixth interception against the Rams, Darnold has thrown 5 touchdowns and 2 two-point conversions without any turnovers.

Darnold flipped the script against Rams since his touchdown throw to A.J. Barner in Week 16:

Darnold threw all three of his touchdowns in the red zone, matching his season-best (3 red zone TDs against the Bucs) game. The Seahawks went 4/5 in the red zone and held the Rams to 2/3 in the red zone. L.A. ranked seventh in red zone offense and third in red zone defense during the regular season, so Darnold was facing the best of the best when he hit JSN, Cooper Kupp, and Jake Bobo for touchdowns.

Which was your favorite touchdown pass and why?

I’m going to keep it 12 with you: To be perfectly honest, I don’t know if Seahawks fans are still going to be in full agreement 12 months from now that Sam Darnold is in the long-term plans of the franchise. Look at Jalen Hurts right now, only 12 months after winning the Super Bowl.

And nobody would know the fickleness of the league better than Darnold.

But this week, Darnold finally gets his opportunity to say that doubters were wrong about him. In two weeks, he’ll get his chance against the Patriots to prove he can be a Super Bowl winner and that he would have beaten New England when he was drafted into the league…if it wasn’t for the Jets.

Darnold might not be going to the Super Bowl if it wasn’t for the Seahawks new coaches. However, Seattle might also not be going to the Super Bowl if it wasn’t for Darnold’s old coaches.

Michael Dickson had one of the best games by a punter in playoff history. Dickson punted five times, all five punts landed inside the 20, two landed inside the 10, two were muffed by Xavier Smith, and one of those was recovered by Dareke Young. In Week 11, we called Ethan Evans’ corner coffin against Seattle one of the all-time great punts; but this was an all-time great game.

Essentially, McVay thinks special teams is stupid and Macdonald thinks special teams is awesome.

The Seahawks’ advantage over the Rams on special teams is not a fluke, it was inevitable based on how these two teams invest.

Seattle hired a Harbaugh to be their special teams coordinator; L.A. picked the guy who would do the job for the least amount of money (and fired him midseason). The Seahawks have the highest-paid punter in AAV and Jason Myers is the highest-paid kicker in 2025; the Rams cut their kicker midseason and their punter is good, but he’s not Dickson. Brady Russell is a legit All-Pro caliber coverage guy. Maybe Dareke Young is too. L.A. is the only team in the league that still chooses to kick touchbacks (75% touchbacks vs 25% league average) because they’re just that bad at coverage.

John Schneider didn’t take heat for any coaching hire in 2024 except for Jay Harbaugh (not even for Ryan Grubb) and his addition is proving to be the most savvy.

The Seahawks had 9 turnovers in their first three games against the 49ers and Rams (1-2), but 0 turnovers in their last three games, all against the 49ers or Rams (3-0). Seattle ranked 31st in turnovers but haven’t had a turnover since early in the second half against the Panthers.

The Rams went 1-of-8 on third down. The Seahawks ranked first in third down conversion rate allowed in 2025.

Teams were 0-8 all-time when allowing at least 479 yards in a conference championship game. The Seahawks gave up 479 total yards against the Rams, but came up victorious because of special teams, red zone offense, third down offense, a single turnover, third down defense, and situational management. Seattle won “the middle 8” 14-7, thanks largely to a 42-yard pass to JSN and a fumble by Xavier Smith.

The Patriots only faced 3 teams during the season that finished with a winning record. New England went 1-2 in those games.

Seaside Joe 2520