Mike Macdonald has often been compared to Sean McVay, and both head coaches took their teams to the Super Bowl in their second seasons. The Seahawks beat the Patriots, the Rams lost to the Patriots. Sam Darnold went 19-of-38 for 202 yards. Jared Goff went 19-of-38 for 229 yards.
It took two years for the Rams to decide to trade Goff and two first-round picks to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, at which point they immediately won the Super Bowl.
Will Seattle wait as long if they decide to trade Darnold for an upgrade? Does an upgrade even exist?
The most obvious comparison to Stafford’s situation with the Lions in today’s NFL is Justin Herbert. What are the logistics of a Darnold-Herbert trade and would it be worth it for Seattle—assuming the Chargers would even entertain it?
Let’s start with the question that needs to be asked well before trade talks.
Do the Seahawks have a QB problem?
If Sam Darnold was stock, you wouldn’t sell him now. You’d wait until after he plays against the Cardinals in three weeks, assuming he will. Here’s every quarterback against Arizona’s defense, including Drew Lock in Week 2:
The Cardinals are allowing 37 points per game over the last four, and all four quarterbacks — including Lock — have thrown at least three touchdowns. In comparison, here are all six quarterbacks to have faced the Broncos defense this season, including Darnold on Thursday.
Five of the six quarterbacks threw interceptions and were held under 60% completions when they faced Denver’s defense:
That includes Darnold, but also Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, and Herbert. All five struggled against the Broncos. Stafford and Darnold have two common opponents, the 49ers and Broncos:
Stafford: 45-of-80, 545 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks
Darnold: 45-of-80, 473 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 10 sacks
If Darnold must be jettisoned for how he played last week, surely the reigning MVP’s job should also be in jeopardy. We could litigate the circumstances of those games, like the Rams traveling to Australia to face the 49ers, but there are always variables. Like Darnold having to go to Denver on three days rest. Stafford also has Sean McVay calling his plays, not a rookie offensive coordinator.
This is not an excuse, merely context. Prior to last Sunday’s game against the 49ers, Darnold had a passer rating of 102 and six touchdowns. Had Darnold been healthy enough to face the Cardinals, he very well could have had a passer rating over 120. Now the job is being questioned after the NFL’s version of a fraternity’s “Hell Week”.
This week feels a lot like what Darnold went through at the tail end of his short Vikings career.
Darnold’s first 16 starts: 35 TD, 12 INT, 14-2 record, 2.9 sacks per game
Darnold’s last 2 starts: 1 TD, 1 INT, 0-2 record, 5.5 sacks per game
That was enough for Minnesota to “fire” Darnold and promote J.J. McCarthy, with barely any noise from the media or Vikings fans that the franchise was making a mistake. I think this is probably because Sam Darnold had already been “jokified” as a draft bust with the Jets and nobody really wants to align themselves with someone like that while he’s struggling.
Darnold didn’t help his case, but every quarterback has bad games — a murderer’s row of quarterbacks has struggled against Denver’s defense this season and not all of them are on the hot seat — it just matters if he has earned enough goodwill to maintain fan support. Darnold’s last two starts in Minnesota and his two starts last week opened the door for “I told you so” so fast that the breeze would knock you on your ass.
Do we still agree that Minnesota made a mistake by parting with Darnold over two bad games or have we changed our minds because he’s had two bad games with Seattle now?
“Pressure” is the name of Darnold’s problems again:
Under Pressure: 23/56, 41% comp, 1 TD, 3 INT, 38.5 rating, -61.4 EPA
No Pressure: 67/93, 72% comp, 6 TD, 4 INT, 100.8 rating, +32.9 EPA
When he’s not under pressure, Darnold ranks 12th in EPA per dropback, fifth in completion percentage over expectation, and 10th in yards per attempt.
What’s more concerning is that Darnold still has four interceptions when he’s not under pressure. The only two quarterbacks who have more are Justin Herbert (6) and Drake Maye (5). In fact, Herbert has been the worst quarterback in the league this year — statistically — from a clean pocket.
People like Herbert though, so a lot of the blame has fallen on new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Maybe that’s fair. It’s just worth noting.
Every QB against the 49ers this season:
Does Darnold have a pressure problem?
Darnold may be responsible for many of his pressures and sacks, which is certainly worth considering when assessing if he’s just in a slump against good defenses or if he will always struggle against good defenses.
A clue comes from Evan Lazar’s pre-Super Bowl film analysis of how to bother Sam Darnold and force mistakes:
“On third-and-7+, Seattle's offense ranks 31st in conversion rate at 16.8% .... As much as Darnold has improved, this offense isn't built for third-and-pass. Darnold was tied for sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate during the regular season (3.4%), with a league-high 26 turnovers (14 INTs, 12 fumbles). If you take away Kubiak's easy buttons for Darnold off play-action and moving pockets, he can be susceptible to turning the ball over.”
Last season, the Seahawks were terrible in third-and-Long and these situations put Darnold in a position to do what he does worst.
Here are Darnold’s 2026 stats from 3rd and 7+:
13-of-24, 145 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 5 first downs
Darnold is even worse specifically from 3rd and 7-9 to go, averaging 3.2 yards per pass and posting a passer rating of 9.2. The Seahawks are 28th in third-down conversion rate and that’s largely because they have the fourth-longest distance to go (7.9 yards) on third downs.