Can A.J. Barner, Tyrel Dodson become cornerstones for Seahawks?
Seahawks Stock Report, Week 5: Seaside Joe 2042
Something that I continue to struggle with every year is making sure that I always separate what a player does in training camp and the preseason apart from what that same player is likely going to accomplish in the upcoming regular season given his situation and that’s why I’ve really valued the “close your eyes test” scores that were handed out to 55 members of the Seattle Seahawks at the start of the season.
Though I do think that the Seaside Joe newsletter does an above-average job of tempering Seahawks fan expectations, there’s always at least one guy who manages to sneak past my better judgment to mislead me into thinking that he’s going to contribute a lot more than what’s most likely going to happen. Not what’s possible, what’s probable?
This year that guy was Brady Russell.
When I scored the Seahawks tight ends, I wrote that maybe Russell was Seattle’s budding star tight end, not Noah Fant. I stand by the fact that what Russell has accomplished so far is in itself remarkable—a former UDFA tight end from Colorado has made the 53-man roster for both Pete Carroll and Mike Macdonald out of successive training camps despite being the fourth tight end—and that Russell could have a bright future.
However, through four healthy games, Russell has played just 16 offensive snaps (more than most TE4s, I guess) and not received a target. Though he does lead the Seahawks in special teams snaps—a good indication that Russell will continue to be on the roster for at least another year or two—we might just make it through an entire 17-game season without seeing him catch a pass.
If you asked me, I’d have said that Russell would play more than A.J. Barner and be Seattle’s TE2 with Pharaoh Brown missing the first two games.
So I guess we’ve established that you shouldn’t ask me.
If you asked the close your eyes test, however, Russell only scored a 2.4 (indicating more of a backup/special teamer) and there’d be no reason for anyone to get their hopes up until after we had seen some regular season evidence. The close your eyes test demands that the grader be as objective as possible before deciding how subjective they want to be with each player.
Now to be fair, A.J. Barner scored a 2.3. However, four games into the season, we’ve seen Barner raise his stock—considerably, I’d say—and proven to be a bigger threat in the passing game than anyone had predicted due to every draft analyst copying each other and repeating that he’d only be a blocking tight end.
The next time I re-do every Seahawks score (and I guess create a new one for Jason Peters???), which will be during Seattle’s Week 10 bye, Barner’s likely to have a higher grade and certain to climb over Russell, something that maybe should have already been the case a month ago.
Now because the Seaside Joe newsletter does revel in tempering expectations allow me to run through some of the less exciting names on the Seahawks, players who I would say incited a few arguments among Seahawks fans over whether or not they’d contribute or breakout in 2024 despite being WR4 or TE4 or RB3 or whatever…Players who might have bright futures, but are barely visible or really underwhelming during most games:
Kenny McIntosh, a hugely popular player in the last two camps, has three carries for 11 yards and no targets even though Kenneth Walker III missed two starts.
Jake Bobo has caught all five of his targets for 45 yards. That’s still about one opportunity per game.
Noah Fant is on pace for 47 catches and 472 yards. He still hasn’t caught a touchdown since 2022. I can’t think of a tight end more guaranteed for 400 yards and nothing more than Fant, but because he’s a former first round pick with exceptional athleticism it’s hard for fans to not expect or want more from him.
Christian Haynes is getting increased reps now, but has only played in 52 snaps thus far.
And Seattle’s defensive line depth—Myles Adams, Mike Morris, Johnathan Hankins—while great as depth, is not ideal as the Seahawks starting front. K’Von Wallace has plyed just 55 snaps so far, Coby Bryant only 40 snaps, and of course there’s Brady Russell.
“We hate Sea-side-Joe, make-it-stop!”
“We hate Sea-side-Joe, make-it-stop!”
“We hate Seas-ide-Joe, make-it-stop!”
Okay, okay, okay…Let’s talk about some of the surprisingly GOOD standouts for the Seahawks so far. Like Tyrice Knight, who has been thrust into early action because of Jerome Baker’s injury and probably done reasonably well considering the circumstances of being given so much responsibility as a fourth round rookie. Brian Baldinger highlighted Knight in a post on Thursday.
And Tyrel Dodson, another linebacker and someone I highlight later in today’s Seahawks Stock Report, has to be one of Seattle’s most valuable players through four games because of availability and production.
Derick Hall, Connor Williams, JSN, Walker, Charles Cross, Riq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Stone Forsythe, Barner, and even veterans Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett could all see their stocks trending up based on the first four weeks. Will that be the case in today’s post highlighting several Seahawks UP and a couple of Seahawks DOWN?
You’ll have to keep reading—and join Seaside Joe’s Regular Joes or Super Joes club—to find out.
Stock Up
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Do you know what JSN’s target count has been in each of the first four games? It’s like going to Six Flags: 2, 16, 3, 12.
These numbers also happen to coincide with Seattle’s road schedule, as JSN’s target share now looks like this:
Home: 5 targets, 5 catches, 58 yards, 2.5 catches per game, 29 yards per game
Road: 28 targets, 20 catches, 168 yards, 10 catches per game, 84 yards per game
Now, I’m not an expert like Matt Patricia or anything, but I don’t suspect that Ryan Grubb and Geno Smith are treating JSN any differently on the road than they are at home, I think that split is a coincidence. It could just be that because the Seahawks defense hasn’t been as effective in their road games, JSN’s value increased in those games of needing to play four quarters of offense. What JSN has been is Geno Smith’s favorite player on third down and that’s what makes him, in my opinion, Seattle’s most valuable receiver through four games. Just look at this splits, you’ll be amazed…