The single hardest thing an NFL team can do in the offseason
Did the Seahawks do the thing that's hard to do? Seaside Joe 1554
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post on whether or not the Seahawks are “one of the six teams” that could “truly contend” for a Super Bowl. While we don’t stand to benefit from ruling out the long and mid-range shots at this point in the year—you know, the teams that bad movies are made about…
…I do believe that the evidence strongly implies that you’ll be better off by betting on one of the top four or five favorites. I’ve unofficially polled fans I know of who those teams are and the four answers common in between all of them are the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Bengals. Notably, the 49ers have higher Super Bowl odds than the Bengals, which brings me to another point that many people are afraid to admit: Quarterbacks matter.
Out of one side of the mouth is that “quarterback wins is not a real stat” and that they don’t care who is under center and out of the other side:
And hey, I get it. Joe Burrow plays with the top trio of receivers in the NFL, Jalen Hurts probably had the best supporting cast in the NFL last season, and Josh Allen, who has the least amount of help of those quarterbacks, has not had a Super Bowl run yet. So why are people more sold on Buffalo than on San Francisco despite the Bills clearly being in a tougher conference, if not also a tougher division than the 49ers?
It’s a separation of quarterback talent. People would be very comfortable calling the 49ers the favorites in the NFC if Brock Purdy was healthy and more proven or if Trey Lance had given fans any reason to believe—or if either of them were Justin Herbert or Deshaun Watson or Lamar Jackson, etc.—but that one question mark is basically the sole reason for the Seahawks being a sleeper pick to win the NFC West.
So, add it up:
The Chiefs went from a perennial playoff team to a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2018, the year that Patrick Mahomes took over for Alex Smith.
The Bengals went from a perennial basement team to a Super Bowl team in 2021, when Joe Burrow was in his second NFL season.
The Bills have won the AFC East in each of the last three seasons, beginning in Josh Allen’s third season, which was also the first year that he was paired with Stefon Diggs.
And if the Eagles prove themselves as true contenders in 2023—an AFC East team hasn’t won the division in back-to-back years since 2004—that will mark Philadelphia’s turn around from 4-11-1 with Carson Wentz in 2020 to three playoff seasons with Jalen Hurts.
The four teams that everybody seems to agree on as Super Bowl contenders all became Super Bowl contenders after making a change at quarterback. Similarly, the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021 after trading for Matthew Stafford and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in 2020 after signing Tom Brady.
What am I actually getting at here?
The headline of today’s post reads “The single hardest thing an NFL team can do in the offseason”, so what’s the answer to that? It’s also the most important thing that an NFL team can do: Join the small rank of true Super Bowl contenders.
If I asked you whether or not these teams did that in the offseason—Vikings, Lions, Giants, Dolphins, Broncos, Titans, Raiders, Steelers, Cowboys—I’m going to guess that the answer to most, if not all, is “No”. That Minnesota didn’t go from an average team to a great team while still hoping to reach a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins.
But if I asked you about the Jets, maybe some of you would believe that putting Aaron Rodgers on a team with a potentially-great defense was enough to move the needle same as it was for the Bucs and Rams. If I asked you about the Jaguars or Chargers, maybe you’d say that because of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, that this could be “the year”. And while the Panthers may not contend this soon, maybe you could believe that Bryce Young gets them to that level in a couple of years.
Making a change at quarterback clearly does matter, not just on the grand scope of things but also in how fans perceive the legitimacy of contention with each franchise, and Seattle (mostly by circumstances and without a choice) didn’t make a change.
So did the Seahawks step up into the true contenders? Did they get closer?
Are Seahawks one of the "6 teams" that truly contend for Super Bowl?
I was recently at a Dodgers game and having a debate with a friend about why one league is more or less interesting than following another league. I prefer the NFL and no longer watch other sports and he thinks that the NFL playoffs and eventual Super Bowl teams are too predictable, that there are only about six “real” contenders going into the season.
Please take a moment to consider subscribing to Seaside Joe, including to upgrade to premium at only $5/month or $55 for a year, as your support is how we will do something very special and totally unique in Seattle Seahawks media and NFL journalism as a whole. This week, we crossed over 2,200 total subscribers! So if you’re not subscribed for free yet, please enter your e-mail below!
Today is the 1,554th day in a row that I’ve sent a Seahawks newsletter with over 250 original, in-depth articles about the team like this one posted in 2023 alone. Giving gift subscriptions is also a great way to help, benefiting three people at once: you, the person with the subscription, and Seaside Joe!
The Seahawks didn’t make a big move at, but did the opportunity exist?
I thought about this the other night and there was only one feasible opportunity that existed for the Seahawks in terms of making a monumental move at quarterback and they decided not to take it:
Trading the number five pick to move up for number one and selecting Bryce Young.
I’m NOT endorsing or advocating for this move or saying, “Well, that’s it! The Seahawks let an opportunity slip by!” This is merely an observation, which is the case for almost everything I write on Seaside Joe: Doing research, making observations, and letting readers come to their own conclusions of what they might have done differently or the same.
The Chicago Bears held the number one pick and they traded it to the Carolina Panthers, who held pick nine. Therefore, it’s easy to deduce that if Seattle wanted to make a trade up for a quarterback—whether that be Young or Anthony Richardson, although I still don’t believe it would have been for anyone other than Young—that they had the power to do so.
That’s all I’m saying: The Seahawks had the power to move up for the number one quarterback and they did make a decision not to do that.
I just think it’s interesting to point out that Seattle chose not to trade up, which is basically the same as saying that Seattle chose not to draft a quarterback, which is the same as saying that the Seahawks chose to roll with Geno Smith and Drew Lock for another year.
Even being a huge fan of Bryce Young, it’s probably what I would have done too, although I would have seen the defense for making a monumental move.
Let me know what you would have done in the comments.
What would it have cost?
The Panthers traded picks 9, 61, a 2024 first, a 2025 second, and receiver D.J. Moore to move up to number one.
Seattle held the number five pick, so their cost might have been slightly less, but not by much. The Seahawks still should have been able to have trade conversations without offering pick 20, if they didn’t want to include it.
I equate a 2025 second round pick to more like a 2023 fringe day 2/day 3 pick in the 100 range. D.J. Moore was reportedly one of three players that Chicago would accept in the deal, as the Bears just wanted some NFL-ready starting talent. And pick 20 would actually be worth more than a 2024 first rounder.
What if the Seahawks offered picks 5, 37, a 2024 first round pick, Darrell Taylor and Noah Fant? Is that going to interest the Bears? I have a hard time finding a good D.J. Moore comp that fans aren’t going to scoff at (which means no Tyler Lockett, no DK Metcalf, no Abe Lucas, and Jamal Adams isn’t tradeable) so I’m trying my best with Taylor and Fant.
My offer is probably an overpay and that’s one reason that a trade never materialized between Seattle and Chicago. The Panthers are banking quite a lot on Young being a star because if he has a bad rookie season like Lawrence did in 2021, the 2024 first round pick could be as high as top-three.
Still, if I had to look for one potential blockbuster quarterback upgrade attempt, that would be it. I don’t see a way for the Seahawks to have acquired Rodgers, which isn’t really a match anyway, it seems Lamar Jackson was never in danger of leaving Baltimore, and those are probably the only two significant veterans that were on the market.
So I do think that keeping Geno Smith and Drew Lock, especially at a reasonable cost, was in Seattle’s best interest. It was also probably their only viable option for right now. It also means that maybe the Seahawks didn’t have an offseason in which they’ll go from 9-8 and quickly out of the playoffs to winning the Super Bowl.
But I love the moves that they made and the Seattle Seahawks I do think that they are one step closer to being one step away.
I sort of go into seasons looking at teams as if they're in "bubbles of competitiveness" and as of June without all the information, I could see the Seahawks in that "competing to reach the NFC Championship game" bubble. It seems like a small difference between that bubble and the Super Bowl bubble and sure enough we see teams in the "make the playoff bubble" go to the Super Bowl, but for now I think that's a very fair evaluation. As well as being much further ahead than where most people thought Seattle would be a year ago.
When we're talking about the last 2 teams standing in the NFC, it's not just the Eagles and 49ers, but I'm also thinking that the Cowboys, Giants, Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Lions, Packers, Moons that would like to think, "Hey we were pretty close and we think we got better" too. So just being conservative, coming out of the top-10 teams in the NFC, I think a good expectation is that the Seahawks are battling to reach the NFCCG. Then who knows.
Doing nothing is the most common decision most teams make. Think of all the trade possibilities that never happen. In mock drafts we all make trades here and there, but each year there are few trades made in the first round. Chicago moved quickly, while we were being patient. Moving up after Chicago made their move was likely impossible short of making history for the wrong reasons.
That's about the full extent of any thinking I will do on the subject.
The other point you are making about the effect of drafting the right QB is indisputable, but whether Young or Stroud or someone else was the right QB we won't know for a while. But what you don't say about Geno is your hesitancy to believe Geno capable of being that QB. You imply as much and you have straight out said it in the past, and you may be correct.
On the other hand, it's less of a yes or no question. Geno may have the talent with the right cast just as everyone believed Purdy could do it for SF. Not because Purdy was a top 5 QB, but because he was proving ADEQUATE. I would suggest that on that scale, Geno is more than adequate with the right supporting cast, and possibly even more, he could be a top 5 QB in my opinion.
He is wickedly accurate. He can stay on time, and he can run and throw on the run. He sometimes throws contested balls he should not, and other mistakes, but he can look down the barrel of a gun and not blink. That is what RW3 is lacking and always lacked.
Given improvements in the OL and running game and WR group, Geno should tear up the league this year, and I think he will.
12-5 baby.