Why Seahawks are less likely to trade down in the 2024 draft
There's one reason why John Schneider would hesitate to trade down this time: Seaside Joe 1822
It is well known by now that the NFL Draft never has as many true “first round prospects” as there are teams in the NFL, which is of course 32. The average number that gets tossed around usually is 20: There are usually about 20 total prospects in a given draft class that teams believe is worthy of that first round status…whatever that is supposed to mean.
Though I am unable to find an example to credit—let me know in the comments if you find out—I know that I’ve heard John Schneider acknowledge this number many times in his history as the Seahawks GM. It’s one of the reasons why Seattle had become so predictable in terms of trading down, which is that if they weren’t in the top-20, they were almost always trading down because they didn’t have a different grade on the player at 25 that they had on the player at 35 or sometimes 45.
2013 - Seahawks trade pick 25+more for Percy Harvin
2014 - Seahawks trade down from pick 32 to 40, then 40 to 45
2015 - Seahawks trade pick 31, Max Unger for Jimmy Graham+4th
2016 - Seahawks trade down from pick 26 to 31
2017 - Seahawks trade down from pick 26 to 31, then 31 to 34, then 34 to 35
2018 - Seahawks trade down from pick 18 to 27
2019* - Seahawks trade down from pick 21 to 30, then 30 to 37, then 37 to 47
2021/2022 - Seahawks trade two first round picks for Jamal Adams
*Seahawks held onto pick 29, acquired for Frank Clark
When the Seahawks traded a pick for a player, it was always a pick that they would have determined was no more valuable to them than a second rounder: Pick 25 to Percy, pick 31 for Jimmy, and when they traded for Jamal it was under the assumption that they’d always be outside the top-20 picks. Which was true in 2021, but not 2022.
Okay, so where are the exceptions?
2010 - Seahawks keep picks 6 and 14
2011 - Seahawks keep pick 25, choose James Carpenter
2012 - Seahawks trade down from 12 to 15
2020 - Seahawks keep pick 27, choose Jordyn Brooks
2022 - Seahawks get pick 9 from Broncos, keep it and choose Charles Cross
2023 - Seahawks keep picks 5 and 20
Well, 5, 6, 9, and 14 are all high enough in the draft to assume that the Seahawks felt they were getting premium first round blue chip prospects and not the same level of player that they would be choosing at 25 or 26 or 31, etc.
In 2012, the Seahawks only moved from 12 to 15, staying in the range to pick Bruce Irvin, a player who Seattle clearly had a first round grade on. Likely one of their last first round grades of 2012.
2020 was the pandemic year and teams weren’t as aggressive: There wasn’t a single trade in the top-12 picks. It could be that the Seahawks felt so uneasy about their draft evals that they weren’t sure if Brooks was indeed a much better prospect than those available at the start of day two. 2011 was the lockout year, so again the pre-draft process and free agency was completely abnormal from a typical offseason.
Maybe the only real exception I can point to in the last 14 years with Pete Carroll and John Schneider is sticking and picking Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year at 20th overall. This is normally where Seattle would try to trade down but maybe we can explain that one too. JSN started a run on receivers as he was the first at his position to be picked and then he was followed by three more receivers directly after him: Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison.
If Pete and John had their hearts set on a first round receiver, they likely knew that trading down guaranteed that they wouldn’t be able to get one. The next receiver picked after Addison was Jonathan Mingo at #39 (arguably the worst WR in the NFL last season) and then Jayden Reed at #50.
With Tyler Lockett nearing the end of his career and Seattle rarely getting an opportunity to pick a day one receiver, it’s possible that the reason the Seahawks didn’t trade down was that they weren’t sold on the day two options. That makes perfect sense to me. So why would John Schneider hesitate to trade down this year? If he only has 16-ish first round grades then trading down might guarantee he gets zero% of them.