7 Seahawks trade down scenarios
Seaside Joe 1142: What trade compensation would Seattle get for moving down this year?
One of the funniest movies I’ve seen in a long time is The Bubble on Netflix. Don’t read reviews or watch the trailer or pay attention to the movie art, my suggestion would be to put it on one night and judge for yourself. Then one day, perhaps years down the line, let me know what you thought of it.
I believe the Seattle Seahawks will trade down in the first round next Thursday and these are seven Seahawks trade down scenarios that I came up with. The draft trade value is based on real trades of recent years combined with present value of this weak class, positional needs, and historical precedent between John Schneider and other GMs.
There’s also an adjoining podcast episode that I’ll link at the bottom if you’re interested in that sort of thing.
Seahawks send: 9
Jets send: 10, 4.111
As Gunther would say in The Bubble, “A lot of you have been asking about flirting…” and the Jets are more than flirting with Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson.
Sources tell @TonyPauline that the #Jets have been in constant contact with Jermaine Johnson III and have been doing an “inordinate amount of research” on the Florida State prospect.
Single-spot trades do happen sometimes. In 2017, the 49ers got two thirds and a fourth to move down from 2 to 3 so the Bears could select Mitch Trubisky. In 2012, the Browns went up from 4 to 3 by sending the Vikings a fourth, fifth, and a seventh. In 2020, the Bucs swapped a fourth for a seventh to move up for Tristan Wirfs at 13.
Seattle won’t get that kind of value by moving down from 9 to 10 in this year’s draft, but the Jets are reportedly IN LOVE with Johnson and we know that the Seahawks are just as liable to draft Johnson, so New York would have to decide if they’re bluffing.
Don’t be greedy. If the Seahawks get a fourth round pick for doing nothing, it’s another A+ trade for John Schneider—and Seattle could still trade down again at 10.
Seahawks send: 9
Texans send: 13, 3.80
I don’t think it is likely that Texans GM Nick Caserio will trade up, but perhaps Houston becomes enamored with two prospects in this year’s draft: he selects one of them at three (Evan Neal or Icky Ekwonu) and then let’s say the other falls outside of the top-eight (Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley, Travon Walker). The Texans practically have more draft picks than they can afford right now and in this case would sacrifice a third round pick (not even their own third rounder) to move up for that guy.
Last year, the Eagles moved up from 12 to 10 with the Cowboys, giving up pick 84. You can argue that Seattle should ask for pick 68, but it is a weaker draft class.
Seahawks send: 9
Eagles send: 15, 3.83, 5.162
I know people would start asking for the moon at this point, thinking that moving down six spots would be worth a future first round pick, but that’s just not going to happen. Not from 9 to 15, not from 9 to 20, and not with this draft class.
I think the going rate from Howie Roseman would be an extra third and an extra fifth in this year’s draft. And it wouldn’t surprise me if that was the best offer on the table or that Pete Carroll would accept it. Roseman was the man who worked with Schneider in 2012 to move up from 15 to 12; the Eagles got Fletcher Cox, the Seahawks settled for Bruce Irvin.
Seahawks send: 9
Chargers send: 17, 6.195, 7.236, 2023 2nd, DL Jerry Tillery, LB Drue Tranquill
The Chargers have become my favorite team to I.D. as a trade down partner at this point. Though Tom Telesco never used to trade in the draft (he literally traded no picks between the second round of 2015 and the last round of 2019) but he’s changed up his habits recently and it seems to be working for him. The Chargers don’t have their own second, but they have two in the sixth and four in the seventh and they’re one team that might be calling Schneider during all hours of the night if a right tackle slips out of the top-eight.
If Evan Neal or Icky Ekwonu are available at nine, the Seahawks might be able to squeeze a 2023 first out of Telesco.
There’s been talk of seeing more players traded on draft day this year instead of picks and here’s a place where it makes sense to me, because L.A. doesn’t want to move their third rounder I’m sure—but they also don’t want to give up their first rounder next year for a right tackle or Jordan Davis. Tillery is an underwhelming defensive tackle pick who went one spot ahead of L.J. Collier. Tranquill has fans and has played well but has also dealt with injuries; the Chargers added Sebastian Joseph-Day at nose tackle and Troy Reeder at inside linebacker, so they already seem prepared for changes.
Tillery and Tranquill could compete for starting roles and second chances in Seattle. This feels more like the Broncos trade to me, getting NFL-ready players and future draft capital.
Seahawks send: 9
Steelers send: 20, 2.52, 2023 third
This is GM Kevin Colbert’s final draft before he retires and he’s made it clear that he wants to leave the Steelers with a franchise quarterback. The problem of course is there doesn’t appear to be one in this draft—but we can’t say for sure that there won’t be one or two top-10 QBs selected and maybe Colbert does feel a type of way about Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett or Matt Corral.
You think this is poor compensation? Well, in 2019, Colbert’s last trade up in the first round, he went from 20 to 10 by giving up a second and a future third so he could select LB Devin Bush. This is a weaker class than 2019 and even if he’s picking a QB, I can’t imagine him giving up a future first round pick to move up 11 spots.
I don’t really predict that Pittsburgh will trade up for a QB but if they do, this is a fair scenario.
Did you know that Fred Armisen is in The Bubble? He’s great.
Seahawks send: 9
Packers send: 21, 2.53, 4.132, 4.140, 7.228
Green Bay is lowkey the spiciest team in the NFL draft—their only M.O. is that they have no M.O.. They do the thing you least expect.
This year, the Packers have two firsts, two seconds, two fourths, and three sevenths. That’s Schneider’s language all day long.
I think Green Bay’s intention here is to come away with a top-10 prospect and while that could be a wide receiver, it’s more of an opportunity for Brian Gutekunst to make the Packers an immediately better team: What if the pick was for Evan Neal or Icky Ekwonu or Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux? Don’t those also feel like potential Packers moves? Green Bay would still have their other first round pick to select a very good WR prospect, maybe even Jameson Williams.
The Seahawks want more picks on day two, more picks in the fourth, sixth, and seventh rounds, and more opportunities to move around. I believe that they’d want that more than they’d want Johnson or Derek Stingley or Charles Cross.
Seahawks send: 9
Chiefs send: 29, 30
This was the most simple trade to come up with other than the Jets deal, but also one of the strangest. What’s my reasoning behind getting both of Kansas City’s two first rounders? The fall down the board is 20 spots, which I think is enough to justify asking for two first round picks. So why not the Chiefs’ 2023 first rounder?
Until Patrick Mahomes is traded to the Dolphins, Kansas City will remain Super Bowl contenders for the foreseeable future. So the Chiefs’ 2023 first rounder might be even worse than 30th overall and it almost certainly won’t be that much better.
Seattle would almost be trading out of the first round entirely by doing this trade and they could definitely miss out on every prospect who they have a first round grade on by dropping to 29. But by also getting back pick 30, the Seahawks could stick-and-pick a prospect at 29 (Bernhard Raimann?) and then trade down from 30 for a team seeking a QB with a fifth-year option.
While I don’t anticipate Green Bay trading up for a wide receiver, Kansas City’s case makes more sense to me and this would be an opportunity to secure Garrett Wilson or Jameson Williams, two incredible fits for Mahomes and far better than the prospects who will fall to the late 20s.
Which trade scenario do you like the most? Which do you hate the most? Debate in the comments:
The Chargers at 17 looks best positioned to trade and still get my guy, who is Trevor Pennning. However, if one wants to trade down this year, it seems like we must trade down with whoever wants to trade, including 9 for 11, and then 11-14 or 11-17. We can trade down to at least 20 as long as we have options that include Ojabo or Penning.
Penning is my highest rated OT at this point, and if PC/JS have the same grade, they could take him at 9 I suppose. You cannot teach 6'7" 325lbs.
The possibilities are infinite and that makes it so intriguing.
Thanks for all the content Joe.
I agree with Chris. My thought is that the Seahawks will only look to trade down if the nightmare scenario occurs where all three offensive tackles (I like Cross and think he is a better zone blocker then you give him credit for), all four defensive ends and Sauce are all gone. If that occurs then the only true Blue Chippers are a safety we do not need, a center that would be an overdraft, and ILB. I just cannot get behind Stingley because of the injury history, and I agree with your earlier argument that the Seahawks won’t either. If the nightmare scenario occurs then the Seahawks best hope to go down is a team that wants to get to the front of the line on the receiver run that is going to occur between 10 and 20. If such a team exists then the Seahawks can trade back for an extra pick probably 3/4 or 2 depending on value and get a second tier prospect at edge/ corner ( unlikely) or OT at the middle end of the round. If the nightmare does not occur because a team makes reach pick for qb ( looking at you Carolina) or loves the safety (Jets - unlikely because they are going to use our 10th for a player who may well be better than Jamal next year - ouch) then we will stay where we are at and take the player that fell to us.