Yes, I think it’s ‘look over here at the shiny thing’ while they’re actually doing something else. You have a hard job trying to work them out, but I reckon you’re the best at it. It also gives them a similar advantage in that none of the fans will be surprised by any choice they make coz we all expect them to do the unexpected these days. Bases covered.
Mike Sando’s interview with Randy Mueller about the top four QB prospects. (The Athletic NFL Football podcast) is worth a listen. In brief:
Richardson: Day 2. The rawness and accuracy issues are real, and Mueller doesn’t believe that accuracy can be coached. (He also says that Josh Allen’s accuracy problems were overstated). Incredible raw talent, but Richardson could be five years out if he arrives at all.
Levis: Late first round. Has all the tools, but so did Kyle Boller. Terrific athlete, but still underthrows the deep ball and makes too many bad decision.
Young: High first round. Can make all the throws, even the complicated ones. Will struggle in an NFL pocket. Has concerns about Young’s durability and whether he can consistently hold up across 17 regular season games and up to three playoff games.
Stroud: The clear best of the four. No real weaknesses. “As fundamentally sound as has come out in a long time.” Great anticipation and feel for when receivers will come open. Will flush early from the pocket, but that’s nitpicking (according to Mueller). Still has upside and no significant downside.
* Frank Reich has a history of making questionable judgments about QBs. Fitterer will keep Reich on the straight-and-narrow, but the owner is a wild card. If it comes to it, might he overrule the coach and GM?
* If he (Randy) were GM of the Colts and Stroud and Young were gone, he would insist on *not* drafting Levis or Richardson
* Mueller dismisses the possibility of the Hawks drafting a QB. (Unless, I would think, Stroud is available)
* Some teams will have a circuit breaker in place that automatically pushes Young to Day 2 because of height. He didn’t say whether Houston is one of those teams
* In the modern NFL, a QB prospect has to be able to throw without his feet set. Mueller thinks that will be a problem for Young
* While he kept saying that he was speaking for himself, Mueller also said that there was nothing off the charts about his analysis and that other evaluators will see things the same way
I appreciate the thought exercise, but I wouldn't give up what it would take to move up to #2 if it means taking Bryce Young (since I think the Panthers are taking CJ Stroud). As a Draft Day trade, IF the Panthers take Young . . . my stance might change. But maybe not.
Personally, I'd prefer to stay at 5 and see who's available. I'm okay with drafting either Stroud (if he slides, which is unlikely) or Anthony Richardson. Zero interest in Will Levis, minimal interest in Bryce Young. If Stroud and Young are off the board, I'd love to get Will Anderson Jr. (would probably take him over any of the QBs) and would also consider Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzalez, and Bijan Robinson. Naturally, I'd also consider trading back if Anderson, Stroud, and Richardson were 3 of the first 4 picks.
I love all the love in this thread for Robinson. I live in Texas and I’ve seen him play in person. I believe he’s perfect weapon for the modern game. The last college player to break tackles like Robinson was Marshawn Lynch. Unlike Marshawn, Robinson can line up anywhere. He is match up nightmare. A linebacker can’t cover him and a and a slot corner can’t tackle him. If you bring a safety down to help then DK is one on one.
For everyone thinking we will get him at 20 think again. Between 5 and 20 the Lions, have two picks, the Eagle’s have a pick and the Packers have a pick. One of those teams will take him. This draft is deep in DL, we can get a rotational starter at 20.
If you are worried about Walker, don’t be. Nobody can last caring at 20 to 25 times a game. Tony Pollard just turned being the number 2 back into a franchise tag. Walker has to know that to get paid. He’s gonna have to last until his fifth year. For Walker Robinson is career insurance. I could go on but you get my point.
Like Kenneth I won’t be upset if the Seahawks trade their picks to draft a Qb at 2. I will be more the pleased if teams get stupid and Anderson falls to us. I will trust if they draft Carter, Richardson, or Levis at 5 but I will be ecstatic if they draft Robinson.
It's ridiculous watching "analytics" lose themselves in desperately arguing that a team would be stupid to draft Robinson in the first round. It's okay guys, we know you're so "smart" now try to watch and enjoy some football for once.
Appreciate your thoughts. Im torn, on the one hand I trust PCJS so if they really think that there is a generational QB in this class then I trust them. On the other hand, you have to give up so much to trade up. And we know PC wants a point guard who can run the offense. We didn’t win a Super Bowl because of Russell, but I acknowledge he played an important role.
My personal take is if Anderson is there, take him, merry Christmas (obviously). If not trade down to 10-15, take Bijan (he’s worth it) and a top WR/LB/whoever they love at 20. Then use the volume of picks we have to bolster the defensive front and iOL.
Agree 100%. Russ doesn’t get enough credit for how many matchup problems he caused with the “read/option” potential along with his beautiful deep ball passes.
Wow, that is a bold statement, Doug. You could get good odds for that bet if you believe it. I see too many professionals saying that Young has the best film in the draft. Young is the one guaranteed to go first in almost every case except for the size. But Kyler is different but just as short, and the part of about injury is real for small players.
So, maybe you are correct, but Kyler was taken first overall and has gotten a bigtime second contract. Win and losses not so great, though. His leadership skills on a scale of 1 to 10, Kyler is a minus -3. While Young is said to be wise beyond his years. A great leader that people would go into battle for.
Seaside Joe is on record as having Bryce Young rated #1QB. So I believe Pete and John would feel like they had been given a gift from the football god.
It's not just "too many" professionals saying it--100% of them say that Bryce has the best film. Only a few ignore that part of his resume and decide to focus only on the size.
The "Kyler effect" is what may contribute to Young falling. The league has watched Kyler, they have seen the contract, and no one including Arizona would ever do that contract with Kyler again.
I watched Bryce's tape again just the other day and he is just so quick in his release and his ball placement is outstanding. BUT check ESPN "are the concerns over Bryce's hieight legit" and the SDB review... and the decision-making of (particularly) Houston and Indy (since Carolina is likely taking Stroud).
Yeah I really do believe there is a non-zero chance Bryce falls to 5, and the odds are increasing. Would I put money on it? Absolutely not lol.
“Falling” is more about draft analysts than teams. I’m skeptical that an okay pro day will by itself would have much effect on Young’s or any other player’s actual draft standing. Also, keep in mind that these “reports” focus only on what is visible. We don’t know how interviews with the player and coaches went.
Right now it appears like Pete and John are having a blast and living it up getting to really know these young men. I think they are in no hurry to decide for sure right now, but they might. I expect them to wait and make a decision during the draft whether to move up at some point, if possible, which is unlikely, or decide to take who is left or try to trade down. We'll see, and I am having a blast along with them from my chair.
The fantasy world of draft wheeling and dealing provides countless possibilities...for any 12's dream picks. Personally I would go with any scenario that lands us Carter, Robinson and Schmidt.
I'll play. Wait, what are the rules? Because I'd take Young, Bijan, and Darnel Washington. But if they have to be non-QB's who we probably will never have a chance for then, Bijan, Mazi Smith, and Darnell Washington.
A time that a team used two current first round picks to move up in the draft (since you asked!): very random, but in 1992 Cincinnati traded #4 (and #58) to Washington for #6 and #28 (and #84). #4 was Desmond Howard, #6 was David Klingler, and #28 was Darryl Williams.
Draft pick values change so much over the decades, I won't be surprised if it swings back that way eventually. A team would be laminated on twitter today if they traded 28 and 84 to move up 2 spots...especially for...a special teams player!
Also, in 2000, the 49ers traded #3 to Washington for #12, #24 and a couple later selections. $3 was Chris Samuels, #12 was Shaun Ellis (pick was actually later traded to the Jets) and #24 was Ahmed Plummer.
In 2003, the Bears traded #4 to the Jets for #13 and #22. #4 was Dewayne Robertson, #13 was Ty Warren (pick ended up traded to New England) and #22 was Rex Grossman.
The biggest trick in the draft is to figure out how the talent lays in the draft, value wise. Other than possibly two or three non-QB's this draft seems poorly for plug and play top talent. The rest are all second round talent, and soon after the 80's, the talent drops off to the point where most of them will not last in the NFL with a dozen or so exceptions that will be taken earlier than expected. Guys like Mingo, and some of the CB's and RB's because those position groups are very deep and looks good. Just my opinion so far in my studies of this draft.
I recommend the top fifty video by some guy. You'll find it or I will post it when I see it up next. I really hope I am wrong because we have so much draft capital this year. But if we see them trade down that will tell us something, and if they get draft picks next year that will tell us even more.
Last year they killed it, AND it was a great draft year for everything but QB's. They stayed put and did well right to the seventh round. I hope that happens again this year and that will prove me wrong and I will sign certificates to that effect, for anyone interested.
Up until a few days ago I hadn't considered money in the value-draft equation. No doubt Bijan Robinson would be a good fit for the 'Hawks no matter where he was drafted but the #5 pick is going to get paid 5X what KW3 is being paid and that lets a lot of air out of the value balloon. Drafting a high paid position (QB, DE, OT) seems to make better financial sense.
It is going to be interesting to see where Robinson gets drafted (and by whom). In the top 10 of the draft is he an "expensive" RB or a "cheap" (because he can start opening day) slot WR with versatility to run out of the backfield?
I saw that the first time I saw his route running in highlight reels. And I have touted him as one of the few can't miss players in this draft. I still believe that. In last years' draft, he might have fallen to the mid to late first round. Lots of talent in last years' draft. We got a first round talent at tackle in the third round. All because of the massive amount of talent in last years' draft. This year seems much leaner, and if we can trade down to 7, 8, or 9 I think we can get Bijan, though... dang, I'm not sure about getting below the Lions at 7. If the Lions wanted to trade up to five I have to believe it wouldn't be for Bijan. That would be paranoia. No, a trade down with the Lions and then take Bijan.
Another thing in our favor is that Pete and John have a long history of picking running backs in the first round.
I'm responding really fast so I might mellow my opinion or change directions entirely, but if I understand it, "value of a position to a team" would include whether they ran the ball or primarily pass it, for one? And what they need. Period? I mean, almost no one wants to draft for need without also getting value in the quality, too. Right or wrong?
Don't forget, as a mental exercise here, if all the players were of exactly equal value as players, that would degrade the early draft positions and elevate the positions later in the draft. That was kind of my point. No, nothing is ever exactly even or this or that, but the Value seems to me from around pick 20 to 70, and a good number of those guys will have productive careers. The rest are gonna be climbing that steep hill.
I did not mean for my comment to sound like a criticism, just an add-on, because ultimately value is in the roster of the beholder so to speak. But yeah, Kenneth Walker III has more "value" to the Seahawks than to many other teams because of scheme, and that would be true of Bijan Robinson this year.
In fact "scheme fit" is in my opinion (for whatever it's worth) the most important aspect of the valuation and is the reason why so many draftees 'bust' with the teams that draft them. Right guy, wrong situation. (I will hate it if LJ Collier breaks out with Arizona and proves my point.) The advantage the Seahawks have in the draft is that the main drivers of the philosophy (which plays into scheme) have been stable for 14 years now, and that stability should make for fewer drafting errors from the team's perspective.
Oh, wow, yea, I learned a lot from that interview, but I am essentially a tourist. Perhaps a well informed tourist, but a tourist nevertheless. Thanks. Oh, and I wasn't being defensive so much as being aware I was listening to a more informed person.
As I’ve said before, every time you write something up, I’m convinced it might happen......until the next post. Now I’m starting to think that you’re just writing up every scenario as convincing as possible just so you cover all bases so you can say that you predicted what the Hawks eventually do.
Haha. I swear, the last thing I want to do is be manic and all over the place. I am inspired by what Pete and John say and do sometimes...and this week they were OVER THE TOP in their eagerness to show fans that they are looking into the QBs. Even the ones who for all intents and purposes, they have no shot at without a trade.
Yep. We had a thought experiment "What if the teams don't like the QBs and most don't go early, just like last year," and "what if they all like QBs and we have our pick of other players." The truth is, the mock drafts every year get a lot very, very wrong. I'm talking Malik Willis in the top 5 wrong. The Mel Kipers of the world clearly aren't getting the same intel GMs are.
Probably what I have most consistently believed about the current QB crop is that BY is #1, CJ is a distant but clear #2, Richardson is far too raw for someone who I would take early but maybe another team would, and Levis is a day 2 prospect. It's hard not to get influenced by the mocks, especially when they all copy each other and say the same shit and don't do any research beyond reading other mocks. But last year I was very consistent that Malik and Desmond were not going to go as high as what everyone was saying and that Kenny was the only guy I'd take in the first round.
For me, there's a clear #1 and it's BY but I can't say what the Panthers will do, maybe they will prefer CJ. I still think BY is the "get" at #2, not AR. For me, it's still BY-CJ or CJ-BY and maybe a team gets overzealous on AR.
The second trade is the one I prefer, but mostly because I like the folks who show up around pick 30 when I'm drafterbating than those at 20. I'm betting that GMs are hot to draft my Ade Ade crush and Mazi Smith too though. The early 2nd is where most of my favourite players show up in the PFF simulator.
Typical PFF 2 round draft for me is:
1. Trade down from 5, pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and some more ammunition in 2nd round and later.
2. Trade down from 20, pick Will McDonald, get another 2nd rounder
3. Pick Mazi Smith (I think he makes too much sense for us, he'll probably be around at the top of the 2nd)
4. Pick Ade Ade (I think he'll go in the first)
5. Pick Daiyan Henley (good chance he's around)
6. Pick Luke Wypler, Joe Tippman, or Zach Charbonnet
Karl Brooks is usually there for me in the 3rd, or Tank Dell.
I like your draft fine. I pick many of the same guys. I'm not a pick a WR in the first round guy, though. Maybe get one in the third or fourth. Mingo or Charlie Jones.
I admit I read Rob Staton, and saw the win rate percentages and Karl Brooks led the field. Of course, his competition was less, but still, his win rate is impressive, and he will never last into later rounds like he used to in the PFF Mock. They have upgrade many times, though, and it gets tougher and tougher to beat the dang thing.
A well reasoned argument. The point that really gets me is the dynamic of having two QB-needy teams from the same division drafting in the top 4. How does Houston get what they want (if they want Anderson or Carter) while still blocking the Colts from what they most need? Fascinating.
I know the Hawks are giving the appearance of a team looking to draft a QB early, and I believe their interest is legitimate, but I also think they are making a show of it to entice trade partners. They want to have as much flexibility as they can to either take their guy or trade back depending on how the top four plays out. I have a hard time believing that they would give Lock the contract they did pre-draft, with guaranteed money, if they were going to attempt to trade up for a rookie QB. Wouldn't they be comfortable with Stroud or Young as the backup during their rookie season? Still, it's possible.
Watching Caleb Williams this morning, I'm convinced at least a couple of teams are not going to do anything to jeopardize their chances of getting him or Drake next year. It won't stun me if HOU and IND both punt the QB position this year.
I made that argument myself, but it's only 1.5 million guaranteed. It does suggest they aren't planning on taking any one of the four, unless it is Richardson they want. And if they want anyone bad, they have plenty of time between now and the draft to make a deal. I think they are cool customers who like to stay cool in negotiations. Something could happen any moment. They could be negotiating to move up or down.
Even as good as the top-2 QBs in this draft could be as rookies, I don't find it hard to believe at all that teams want to go back to nurturing and training QB prospects during their first year. It's not just Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes anymore. Jalen Hurts. Lamar Jackson. A couple more QBs who sat for most or all of their rookie seasons. And teams are seeing a lot of other guys get destroyed for playing them as rookies. Bryce Young is great. He could be a lot better with a year of seasoning behind Geno Smith and having Lock as the backup. CJ Stroud could be a lot better with a year of seasoning.
Kenneth, I have to thank you for the good laughs you provided me this morning. I enjoyed it and can see where your former gig as a stand up comedian (if I remember correctly) has translated into your writing. That being said, I can see where these possibilities could actually play out. I have always been disappointed when the Seahawks trade down in the draft and, as it often seems, the picks they get when trading down turn out to be busts or just mediocre players. I know to trade up, they will have to give up a boatload of draft capital this year (and possibly the next several) and the pick they choose could be a bust. The Jamal Adams trade cost them a lot of draft capital and I felt like they got the equivalent of a high first round pick for that capital and I was satisfied with that because he was already a proven commodity. However, after a great first year he seemed to become injury prone and has not played many games in any year since. I would hate to give up that draft capital and then see the player chosen have an injury history like Jimmy G or fail to live up to expectations, like Sam Darnold. That is one reason I would rather see them take a QB early on day two. I just don't want to see them pass up all the blue chip defensive talent up front if they have a chance to get them. But, again they too could be busts. The draft is an educated crapshoot. The mock draft crowd seems to pick who they think every other mock drafter will pick and no one but you goes into the financial end of it to see if their picks are financially tenable.
"They could be busts, they could be great" Exactly! I think the key to the draft, especially with these high opportunity picks, is to just do as much homework as possible and then let go. Just make a pick. There's no amount of research that can guarantee shit. Just go for it! And I think in these rare opportunities in the top-5, maybe if a trade up opportunity becomes available, it's worth the risk. Teams traded up for Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, Allen, Fields...give it a chance! Or don't!
Due to the lack of cap space left and the fact that Pete loves Geno, my favored scenario is that the Seahawks are planning to trade out of 5 and into next year's first round, saving some cap this year and maybe giving them the ammunition to grab one of next year's top QB prospects.
How they accomplish this I have no idea but it has to be on their radar, wouldn't you think?
Maybe there's a scenario where Anthony Richardson is available at 5 and there's a team really interested and desperate and they say fuck it, like Washington. In that case, I could maybe see a future 1st round pick coming back.
I've never thought of them as ideal trade partners because they are in our League. What if they get Stroud or Young or even Richardson and they turn out great? Better to get a future draft pick from some team in the AFL. Plus, the Panthers were decent with terrible QB play. So they might get to the playoffs. I want as sure of a loser as possible to trade with. I see Oakland... I mean Las Vegas is a pretty good shot. Also, Tenn. or the Texans. But, of course, we may not be chosers, we may be beggars, in which case, trade away.
I made kind of a goofy-joke-post yesterday about moving up to #2 and then down to gain back more than was lost, but the more I ruminate on it the better it sounds. I'm looking at Atlanta moving up from #8 and Seattle gaining a '24 first round pick from a team that has the potential to tank.
Nothing is out of the question. We have already seen the Panthers trade up to #1 from #9, and then told the world they were willing to listen to offers to trade from #1. Sort of crazy, but it is almost like they bought futures or draft pick futures. Hoping teams get more desperate for "their guy". It isn't ridiculous because we are only one more step away from that happening and we have plenty of time for teams to get more and more nervous.
Exciting read ... Until I got to the part of what it would take.
I am still a Drew Lock fan and into his potential (still cannot find the reasons why people like Levis over Lock ... if someone comes across that let me know).
Having said that, if they do pull the trigger on this: that tells me all I need to know about how JS/PC feel about the dude and I will be pumped.
I tried to get #1 fan of the Levis fan club (Rob Staton) to answer the question but he either blocks me or says something like "It is so obvious I'm not even going to start" and then his minions go into full attack mode on my lack of intelligence.
In the end, no one actually addresses the question. Maybe there is a difference I would just like to know what it is? Not sure why that is an offensive question.
When I became laser focused on Grayson McCall, Rob became laser-focused on Will Levis. The difference in the last 2 years is that I'm resigned to the fact that Grayson McCall is "my guy" and not a big time NFL prospect. I still believe in him, but I'm not gripped onto a fantasy about him going early. Rob thinks that because of Levis's size and strength (which by the way is now also seen as a widely used criticism of him, that he's actually "too jacked and chiseled") that he gets to maintain this fantasy.
Ask Rob why Levis didn't go into the draft last year. That's the mystery nobody seems to answer. Why would he go back to school when he was already 4 years into college and losing everybody around him instead of entering the weakest QB class in years? And then he goes back to school, sucks, and Rob goes, "Well, he was better in 2021!" Then why didn't he enter the draft in 2022?
Wow ... That is a great point. Why did he go back to school? If he is anything like some are saying then he would've undoubtedly been QB1 last year.
This is just making the draft more exciting outside of the Seahawks picks to me! Where will Levis go? The Seaside Joe vs RS showdown! Kidding but only kind of.
Same question i have around AR - why are you coming into the Draft now, instead of waiting a year, honing that accuracy, and becoming a slam dunk #1 overall option? Could it be that Mayo-Man and AR arn't actually that good NFL prospects? :o
Welcome to the club. The discussion used to be great there, but it's just full of sycophants now. Rob still writes good articles and I like his takes most of the time. He's QB crazy right now. Though I don't understand why he doesn't think that Tyree Wilson can't gain 8 pounds and meet his 3-4 end size definition.
I also don't think that Levis is better than Lock now or that he will be with 2 extra years of development. Lock isn't much older either.
Look up Ryan Leaf talking about Mayo-Man (i'm making this nickname into a thing!) on GMB. He nails the points, Mayo-Man's measurables are equivalent to a ton of fairly ordinary QB's but with significantly less production and far more questionable tape. At least AR has such a small pool of tape you can sort of talk around the lack of production and issues, Mayo-Man has no excuse! Plus, he puts Mayo in coffee! How could such a monster be welcome in Seattle, the coffee capital of the US?
I never thought of it like that, coffee wise. It would be, not only an insult to all the coffee fans in Seattle, it might catch on like pineapple on pizza and destroy our culture.
Richardson has played so little football to this point, he might still improve significantly, but that is the trick, as John S. says, it all about projecting where the guy will be in one or two years. The draft will tell us what they think about this group of draftees.
Everything depends on whether Houston is actually willing to trade the pick. Even though I think they should be, it would be historic if they moved. But luck is where opportunity meets preparation. From the outside looking in the Seahawks moves correspond to preparation.
Yes, I think it’s ‘look over here at the shiny thing’ while they’re actually doing something else. You have a hard job trying to work them out, but I reckon you’re the best at it. It also gives them a similar advantage in that none of the fans will be surprised by any choice they make coz we all expect them to do the unexpected these days. Bases covered.
Mike Sando’s interview with Randy Mueller about the top four QB prospects. (The Athletic NFL Football podcast) is worth a listen. In brief:
Richardson: Day 2. The rawness and accuracy issues are real, and Mueller doesn’t believe that accuracy can be coached. (He also says that Josh Allen’s accuracy problems were overstated). Incredible raw talent, but Richardson could be five years out if he arrives at all.
Levis: Late first round. Has all the tools, but so did Kyle Boller. Terrific athlete, but still underthrows the deep ball and makes too many bad decision.
Young: High first round. Can make all the throws, even the complicated ones. Will struggle in an NFL pocket. Has concerns about Young’s durability and whether he can consistently hold up across 17 regular season games and up to three playoff games.
Stroud: The clear best of the four. No real weaknesses. “As fundamentally sound as has come out in a long time.” Great anticipation and feel for when receivers will come open. Will flush early from the pocket, but that’s nitpicking (according to Mueller). Still has upside and no significant downside.
Randy, bestill my heart.
It’s a good listen. A couple of tidbits:
* Frank Reich has a history of making questionable judgments about QBs. Fitterer will keep Reich on the straight-and-narrow, but the owner is a wild card. If it comes to it, might he overrule the coach and GM?
* If he (Randy) were GM of the Colts and Stroud and Young were gone, he would insist on *not* drafting Levis or Richardson
* Mueller dismisses the possibility of the Hawks drafting a QB. (Unless, I would think, Stroud is available)
* Some teams will have a circuit breaker in place that automatically pushes Young to Day 2 because of height. He didn’t say whether Houston is one of those teams
* In the modern NFL, a QB prospect has to be able to throw without his feet set. Mueller thinks that will be a problem for Young
* While he kept saying that he was speaking for himself, Mueller also said that there was nothing off the charts about his analysis and that other evaluators will see things the same way
I appreciate the thought exercise, but I wouldn't give up what it would take to move up to #2 if it means taking Bryce Young (since I think the Panthers are taking CJ Stroud). As a Draft Day trade, IF the Panthers take Young . . . my stance might change. But maybe not.
Personally, I'd prefer to stay at 5 and see who's available. I'm okay with drafting either Stroud (if he slides, which is unlikely) or Anthony Richardson. Zero interest in Will Levis, minimal interest in Bryce Young. If Stroud and Young are off the board, I'd love to get Will Anderson Jr. (would probably take him over any of the QBs) and would also consider Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzalez, and Bijan Robinson. Naturally, I'd also consider trading back if Anderson, Stroud, and Richardson were 3 of the first 4 picks.
On a separate note, the official NFL draft list shows us with a 7th-round pick, #237 overall. Link: https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-order-for-all-seven-rounds
The Seahawks do have a 7th round pick. I wonder why I thought they didn't. Thanks for the correction!
It just showed up on PFF a few weeks ago. I assume it is a compensatory pick we were just recently awarded officially.
Didn't we fail to hit a trade clause and got it back?
Yes. We had given up a conditional 7th round pick when we traded for John Reid but the conditions weren't met so we got the pick back.
I was just guessing. Thanks for clarifying this.
I love all the love in this thread for Robinson. I live in Texas and I’ve seen him play in person. I believe he’s perfect weapon for the modern game. The last college player to break tackles like Robinson was Marshawn Lynch. Unlike Marshawn, Robinson can line up anywhere. He is match up nightmare. A linebacker can’t cover him and a and a slot corner can’t tackle him. If you bring a safety down to help then DK is one on one.
For everyone thinking we will get him at 20 think again. Between 5 and 20 the Lions, have two picks, the Eagle’s have a pick and the Packers have a pick. One of those teams will take him. This draft is deep in DL, we can get a rotational starter at 20.
If you are worried about Walker, don’t be. Nobody can last caring at 20 to 25 times a game. Tony Pollard just turned being the number 2 back into a franchise tag. Walker has to know that to get paid. He’s gonna have to last until his fifth year. For Walker Robinson is career insurance. I could go on but you get my point.
Like Kenneth I won’t be upset if the Seahawks trade their picks to draft a Qb at 2. I will be more the pleased if teams get stupid and Anderson falls to us. I will trust if they draft Carter, Richardson, or Levis at 5 but I will be ecstatic if they draft Robinson.
It's ridiculous watching "analytics" lose themselves in desperately arguing that a team would be stupid to draft Robinson in the first round. It's okay guys, we know you're so "smart" now try to watch and enjoy some football for once.
Appreciate your thoughts. Im torn, on the one hand I trust PCJS so if they really think that there is a generational QB in this class then I trust them. On the other hand, you have to give up so much to trade up. And we know PC wants a point guard who can run the offense. We didn’t win a Super Bowl because of Russell, but I acknowledge he played an important role.
My personal take is if Anderson is there, take him, merry Christmas (obviously). If not trade down to 10-15, take Bijan (he’s worth it) and a top WR/LB/whoever they love at 20. Then use the volume of picks we have to bolster the defensive front and iOL.
While we may not have won a Super Bowl because of Russell, we wouldn’t have gotten to the game with Matt Flynn.
Agree 100%. Russ doesn’t get enough credit for how many matchup problems he caused with the “read/option” potential along with his beautiful deep ball passes.
Agreed
After reading about Young's pro day on SDB I am more convinced that he will be there at 5 if the Seahawks wait it out.
Can't wait to see what Rob writes and vlogs about if Bryce Young goes 1 or 2. Surely he will say "I was wrong".
ROFL!
WrongDay is not on Rob's calendar.
Wow, that is a bold statement, Doug. You could get good odds for that bet if you believe it. I see too many professionals saying that Young has the best film in the draft. Young is the one guaranteed to go first in almost every case except for the size. But Kyler is different but just as short, and the part of about injury is real for small players.
So, maybe you are correct, but Kyler was taken first overall and has gotten a bigtime second contract. Win and losses not so great, though. His leadership skills on a scale of 1 to 10, Kyler is a minus -3. While Young is said to be wise beyond his years. A great leader that people would go into battle for.
Seaside Joe is on record as having Bryce Young rated #1QB. So I believe Pete and John would feel like they had been given a gift from the football god.
It's not just "too many" professionals saying it--100% of them say that Bryce has the best film. Only a few ignore that part of his resume and decide to focus only on the size.
The "Kyler effect" is what may contribute to Young falling. The league has watched Kyler, they have seen the contract, and no one including Arizona would ever do that contract with Kyler again.
I watched Bryce's tape again just the other day and he is just so quick in his release and his ball placement is outstanding. BUT check ESPN "are the concerns over Bryce's hieight legit" and the SDB review... and the decision-making of (particularly) Houston and Indy (since Carolina is likely taking Stroud).
Yeah I really do believe there is a non-zero chance Bryce falls to 5, and the odds are increasing. Would I put money on it? Absolutely not lol.
“Falling” is more about draft analysts than teams. I’m skeptical that an okay pro day will by itself would have much effect on Young’s or any other player’s actual draft standing. Also, keep in mind that these “reports” focus only on what is visible. We don’t know how interviews with the player and coaches went.
Right now it appears like Pete and John are having a blast and living it up getting to really know these young men. I think they are in no hurry to decide for sure right now, but they might. I expect them to wait and make a decision during the draft whether to move up at some point, if possible, which is unlikely, or decide to take who is left or try to trade down. We'll see, and I am having a blast along with them from my chair.
The fantasy world of draft wheeling and dealing provides countless possibilities...for any 12's dream picks. Personally I would go with any scenario that lands us Carter, Robinson and Schmidt.
I'll play. Wait, what are the rules? Because I'd take Young, Bijan, and Darnel Washington. But if they have to be non-QB's who we probably will never have a chance for then, Bijan, Mazi Smith, and Darnell Washington.
A time that a team used two current first round picks to move up in the draft (since you asked!): very random, but in 1992 Cincinnati traded #4 (and #58) to Washington for #6 and #28 (and #84). #4 was Desmond Howard, #6 was David Klingler, and #28 was Darryl Williams.
Thank you!
Draft pick values change so much over the decades, I won't be surprised if it swings back that way eventually. A team would be laminated on twitter today if they traded 28 and 84 to move up 2 spots...especially for...a special teams player!
Also, in 2000, the 49ers traded #3 to Washington for #12, #24 and a couple later selections. $3 was Chris Samuels, #12 was Shaun Ellis (pick was actually later traded to the Jets) and #24 was Ahmed Plummer.
In 2003, the Bears traded #4 to the Jets for #13 and #22. #4 was Dewayne Robertson, #13 was Ty Warren (pick ended up traded to New England) and #22 was Rex Grossman.
The biggest trick in the draft is to figure out how the talent lays in the draft, value wise. Other than possibly two or three non-QB's this draft seems poorly for plug and play top talent. The rest are all second round talent, and soon after the 80's, the talent drops off to the point where most of them will not last in the NFL with a dozen or so exceptions that will be taken earlier than expected. Guys like Mingo, and some of the CB's and RB's because those position groups are very deep and looks good. Just my opinion so far in my studies of this draft.
I recommend the top fifty video by some guy. You'll find it or I will post it when I see it up next. I really hope I am wrong because we have so much draft capital this year. But if we see them trade down that will tell us something, and if they get draft picks next year that will tell us even more.
Last year they killed it, AND it was a great draft year for everything but QB's. They stayed put and did well right to the seventh round. I hope that happens again this year and that will prove me wrong and I will sign certificates to that effect, for anyone interested.
There are (at least) three kinds of draft value:
1--objective positional value given the depth of talent;
2--particular value of a player relative to the average for his position; and
3--value of a position to a team.
Teams get criticized for "drafting for need" but #3 can make #2 a priority even though #1 says "that guy was drafted too high."
My main complaint with most (ok, all) mock drafts is that they don't appropriately factor in #3 when indicating who will be drafted when.
Up until a few days ago I hadn't considered money in the value-draft equation. No doubt Bijan Robinson would be a good fit for the 'Hawks no matter where he was drafted but the #5 pick is going to get paid 5X what KW3 is being paid and that lets a lot of air out of the value balloon. Drafting a high paid position (QB, DE, OT) seems to make better financial sense.
It is going to be interesting to see where Robinson gets drafted (and by whom). In the top 10 of the draft is he an "expensive" RB or a "cheap" (because he can start opening day) slot WR with versatility to run out of the backfield?
I saw that the first time I saw his route running in highlight reels. And I have touted him as one of the few can't miss players in this draft. I still believe that. In last years' draft, he might have fallen to the mid to late first round. Lots of talent in last years' draft. We got a first round talent at tackle in the third round. All because of the massive amount of talent in last years' draft. This year seems much leaner, and if we can trade down to 7, 8, or 9 I think we can get Bijan, though... dang, I'm not sure about getting below the Lions at 7. If the Lions wanted to trade up to five I have to believe it wouldn't be for Bijan. That would be paranoia. No, a trade down with the Lions and then take Bijan.
Another thing in our favor is that Pete and John have a long history of picking running backs in the first round.
OK, Doug, I want to thank you for explaining these things to a mere speculator.
I'm responding really fast so I might mellow my opinion or change directions entirely, but if I understand it, "value of a position to a team" would include whether they ran the ball or primarily pass it, for one? And what they need. Period? I mean, almost no one wants to draft for need without also getting value in the quality, too. Right or wrong?
Don't forget, as a mental exercise here, if all the players were of exactly equal value as players, that would degrade the early draft positions and elevate the positions later in the draft. That was kind of my point. No, nothing is ever exactly even or this or that, but the Value seems to me from around pick 20 to 70, and a good number of those guys will have productive careers. The rest are gonna be climbing that steep hill.
I did not mean for my comment to sound like a criticism, just an add-on, because ultimately value is in the roster of the beholder so to speak. But yeah, Kenneth Walker III has more "value" to the Seahawks than to many other teams because of scheme, and that would be true of Bijan Robinson this year.
In fact "scheme fit" is in my opinion (for whatever it's worth) the most important aspect of the valuation and is the reason why so many draftees 'bust' with the teams that draft them. Right guy, wrong situation. (I will hate it if LJ Collier breaks out with Arizona and proves my point.) The advantage the Seahawks have in the draft is that the main drivers of the philosophy (which plays into scheme) have been stable for 14 years now, and that stability should make for fewer drafting errors from the team's perspective.
How much do you value adding, uh, who is it? Scott something McDonald or Mc something as a draft advisor?
Depends on how much alcohol he may or may not be consuming.... sad to say.
I listened to that interview at SDB and I really did not hear much that was a revelation, but I guess he wouldn't give it away for free.
Ultimately there is no 'secret sauce' or substitute for knowing how you want to run your team and finding the right guys for your scheme.
Oh, wow, yea, I learned a lot from that interview, but I am essentially a tourist. Perhaps a well informed tourist, but a tourist nevertheless. Thanks. Oh, and I wasn't being defensive so much as being aware I was listening to a more informed person.
Hmmm🤔.
As I’ve said before, every time you write something up, I’m convinced it might happen......until the next post. Now I’m starting to think that you’re just writing up every scenario as convincing as possible just so you cover all bases so you can say that you predicted what the Hawks eventually do.
I no-longer underestimate your sneakiness sir 😁.
Haha. I swear, the last thing I want to do is be manic and all over the place. I am inspired by what Pete and John say and do sometimes...and this week they were OVER THE TOP in their eagerness to show fans that they are looking into the QBs. Even the ones who for all intents and purposes, they have no shot at without a trade.
Yep. We had a thought experiment "What if the teams don't like the QBs and most don't go early, just like last year," and "what if they all like QBs and we have our pick of other players." The truth is, the mock drafts every year get a lot very, very wrong. I'm talking Malik Willis in the top 5 wrong. The Mel Kipers of the world clearly aren't getting the same intel GMs are.
Probably what I have most consistently believed about the current QB crop is that BY is #1, CJ is a distant but clear #2, Richardson is far too raw for someone who I would take early but maybe another team would, and Levis is a day 2 prospect. It's hard not to get influenced by the mocks, especially when they all copy each other and say the same shit and don't do any research beyond reading other mocks. But last year I was very consistent that Malik and Desmond were not going to go as high as what everyone was saying and that Kenny was the only guy I'd take in the first round.
For me, there's a clear #1 and it's BY but I can't say what the Panthers will do, maybe they will prefer CJ. I still think BY is the "get" at #2, not AR. For me, it's still BY-CJ or CJ-BY and maybe a team gets overzealous on AR.
The second trade is the one I prefer, but mostly because I like the folks who show up around pick 30 when I'm drafterbating than those at 20. I'm betting that GMs are hot to draft my Ade Ade crush and Mazi Smith too though. The early 2nd is where most of my favourite players show up in the PFF simulator.
Typical PFF 2 round draft for me is:
1. Trade down from 5, pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and some more ammunition in 2nd round and later.
2. Trade down from 20, pick Will McDonald, get another 2nd rounder
3. Pick Mazi Smith (I think he makes too much sense for us, he'll probably be around at the top of the 2nd)
4. Pick Ade Ade (I think he'll go in the first)
5. Pick Daiyan Henley (good chance he's around)
6. Pick Luke Wypler, Joe Tippman, or Zach Charbonnet
Karl Brooks is usually there for me in the 3rd, or Tank Dell.
I like your draft fine. I pick many of the same guys. I'm not a pick a WR in the first round guy, though. Maybe get one in the third or fourth. Mingo or Charlie Jones.
I admit I read Rob Staton, and saw the win rate percentages and Karl Brooks led the field. Of course, his competition was less, but still, his win rate is impressive, and he will never last into later rounds like he used to in the PFF Mock. They have upgrade many times, though, and it gets tougher and tougher to beat the dang thing.
A well reasoned argument. The point that really gets me is the dynamic of having two QB-needy teams from the same division drafting in the top 4. How does Houston get what they want (if they want Anderson or Carter) while still blocking the Colts from what they most need? Fascinating.
I know the Hawks are giving the appearance of a team looking to draft a QB early, and I believe their interest is legitimate, but I also think they are making a show of it to entice trade partners. They want to have as much flexibility as they can to either take their guy or trade back depending on how the top four plays out. I have a hard time believing that they would give Lock the contract they did pre-draft, with guaranteed money, if they were going to attempt to trade up for a rookie QB. Wouldn't they be comfortable with Stroud or Young as the backup during their rookie season? Still, it's possible.
Watching Caleb Williams this morning, I'm convinced at least a couple of teams are not going to do anything to jeopardize their chances of getting him or Drake next year. It won't stun me if HOU and IND both punt the QB position this year.
I made that argument myself, but it's only 1.5 million guaranteed. It does suggest they aren't planning on taking any one of the four, unless it is Richardson they want. And if they want anyone bad, they have plenty of time between now and the draft to make a deal. I think they are cool customers who like to stay cool in negotiations. Something could happen any moment. They could be negotiating to move up or down.
Even as good as the top-2 QBs in this draft could be as rookies, I don't find it hard to believe at all that teams want to go back to nurturing and training QB prospects during their first year. It's not just Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes anymore. Jalen Hurts. Lamar Jackson. A couple more QBs who sat for most or all of their rookie seasons. And teams are seeing a lot of other guys get destroyed for playing them as rookies. Bryce Young is great. He could be a lot better with a year of seasoning behind Geno Smith and having Lock as the backup. CJ Stroud could be a lot better with a year of seasoning.
Kenneth, I have to thank you for the good laughs you provided me this morning. I enjoyed it and can see where your former gig as a stand up comedian (if I remember correctly) has translated into your writing. That being said, I can see where these possibilities could actually play out. I have always been disappointed when the Seahawks trade down in the draft and, as it often seems, the picks they get when trading down turn out to be busts or just mediocre players. I know to trade up, they will have to give up a boatload of draft capital this year (and possibly the next several) and the pick they choose could be a bust. The Jamal Adams trade cost them a lot of draft capital and I felt like they got the equivalent of a high first round pick for that capital and I was satisfied with that because he was already a proven commodity. However, after a great first year he seemed to become injury prone and has not played many games in any year since. I would hate to give up that draft capital and then see the player chosen have an injury history like Jimmy G or fail to live up to expectations, like Sam Darnold. That is one reason I would rather see them take a QB early on day two. I just don't want to see them pass up all the blue chip defensive talent up front if they have a chance to get them. But, again they too could be busts. The draft is an educated crapshoot. The mock draft crowd seems to pick who they think every other mock drafter will pick and no one but you goes into the financial end of it to see if their picks are financially tenable.
Thanks, Charlie!
"They could be busts, they could be great" Exactly! I think the key to the draft, especially with these high opportunity picks, is to just do as much homework as possible and then let go. Just make a pick. There's no amount of research that can guarantee shit. Just go for it! And I think in these rare opportunities in the top-5, maybe if a trade up opportunity becomes available, it's worth the risk. Teams traded up for Mahomes, Watson, Lamar, Allen, Fields...give it a chance! Or don't!
Say hello to Alice while you're down there.
Due to the lack of cap space left and the fact that Pete loves Geno, my favored scenario is that the Seahawks are planning to trade out of 5 and into next year's first round, saving some cap this year and maybe giving them the ammunition to grab one of next year's top QB prospects.
How they accomplish this I have no idea but it has to be on their radar, wouldn't you think?
Maybe there's a scenario where Anthony Richardson is available at 5 and there's a team really interested and desperate and they say fuck it, like Washington. In that case, I could maybe see a future 1st round pick coming back.
Originally was looking at the Panthers as a great trade partner if the QB was still on the board they were looking for.
But that ship has sailed, unfortunately.
I've never thought of them as ideal trade partners because they are in our League. What if they get Stroud or Young or even Richardson and they turn out great? Better to get a future draft pick from some team in the AFL. Plus, the Panthers were decent with terrible QB play. So they might get to the playoffs. I want as sure of a loser as possible to trade with. I see Oakland... I mean Las Vegas is a pretty good shot. Also, Tenn. or the Texans. But, of course, we may not be chosers, we may be beggars, in which case, trade away.
I made kind of a goofy-joke-post yesterday about moving up to #2 and then down to gain back more than was lost, but the more I ruminate on it the better it sounds. I'm looking at Atlanta moving up from #8 and Seattle gaining a '24 first round pick from a team that has the potential to tank.
Nothing is out of the question. We have already seen the Panthers trade up to #1 from #9, and then told the world they were willing to listen to offers to trade from #1. Sort of crazy, but it is almost like they bought futures or draft pick futures. Hoping teams get more desperate for "their guy". It isn't ridiculous because we are only one more step away from that happening and we have plenty of time for teams to get more and more nervous.
Draft Pick Futures - I love it!
Exciting read ... Until I got to the part of what it would take.
I am still a Drew Lock fan and into his potential (still cannot find the reasons why people like Levis over Lock ... if someone comes across that let me know).
Having said that, if they do pull the trigger on this: that tells me all I need to know about how JS/PC feel about the dude and I will be pumped.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and a stich in time will save nine, and the best defense is a great offense, and ...
I agree with your final paragraph as well. Live long and prosper, Mike.
I tried to get #1 fan of the Levis fan club (Rob Staton) to answer the question but he either blocks me or says something like "It is so obvious I'm not even going to start" and then his minions go into full attack mode on my lack of intelligence.
In the end, no one actually addresses the question. Maybe there is a difference I would just like to know what it is? Not sure why that is an offensive question.
When I became laser focused on Grayson McCall, Rob became laser-focused on Will Levis. The difference in the last 2 years is that I'm resigned to the fact that Grayson McCall is "my guy" and not a big time NFL prospect. I still believe in him, but I'm not gripped onto a fantasy about him going early. Rob thinks that because of Levis's size and strength (which by the way is now also seen as a widely used criticism of him, that he's actually "too jacked and chiseled") that he gets to maintain this fantasy.
Ask Rob why Levis didn't go into the draft last year. That's the mystery nobody seems to answer. Why would he go back to school when he was already 4 years into college and losing everybody around him instead of entering the weakest QB class in years? And then he goes back to school, sucks, and Rob goes, "Well, he was better in 2021!" Then why didn't he enter the draft in 2022?
Wow ... That is a great point. Why did he go back to school? If he is anything like some are saying then he would've undoubtedly been QB1 last year.
This is just making the draft more exciting outside of the Seahawks picks to me! Where will Levis go? The Seaside Joe vs RS showdown! Kidding but only kind of.
Same question i have around AR - why are you coming into the Draft now, instead of waiting a year, honing that accuracy, and becoming a slam dunk #1 overall option? Could it be that Mayo-Man and AR arn't actually that good NFL prospects? :o
Ken speculated in one post that maybe AR15 would have been benched this year, and if not, he might have shown no improvement and damaged his stock.
Welcome to the club.
Welcome to the club. The discussion used to be great there, but it's just full of sycophants now. Rob still writes good articles and I like his takes most of the time. He's QB crazy right now. Though I don't understand why he doesn't think that Tyree Wilson can't gain 8 pounds and meet his 3-4 end size definition.
I also don't think that Levis is better than Lock now or that he will be with 2 extra years of development. Lock isn't much older either.
Look up Ryan Leaf talking about Mayo-Man (i'm making this nickname into a thing!) on GMB. He nails the points, Mayo-Man's measurables are equivalent to a ton of fairly ordinary QB's but with significantly less production and far more questionable tape. At least AR has such a small pool of tape you can sort of talk around the lack of production and issues, Mayo-Man has no excuse! Plus, he puts Mayo in coffee! How could such a monster be welcome in Seattle, the coffee capital of the US?
I never thought of it like that, coffee wise. It would be, not only an insult to all the coffee fans in Seattle, it might catch on like pineapple on pizza and destroy our culture.
Richardson has played so little football to this point, he might still improve significantly, but that is the trick, as John S. says, it all about projecting where the guy will be in one or two years. The draft will tell us what they think about this group of draftees.
I also hate the idea of giving up their 2nd rounders in a deep draft when they have so many holes to fill.
Not deep in my opinion. More above.
Agreed. And if we feel that way ... I believe Pete will feel the same as that seems to go against his DNA.
Everything depends on whether Houston is actually willing to trade the pick. Even though I think they should be, it would be historic if they moved. But luck is where opportunity meets preparation. From the outside looking in the Seahawks moves correspond to preparation.