Yes, I think it’s ‘look over here at the shiny thing’ while they’re actually doing something else. You have a hard job trying to work them out, but I reckon you’re the best at it. It also gives them a similar advantage in that none of the fans will be surprised by any choice they make coz we all expect them to do the unexpected these days. Bases covered.
Mar 24, 2023·edited Mar 24, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
Mike Sando’s interview with Randy Mueller about the top four QB prospects. (The Athletic NFL Football podcast) is worth a listen. In brief:
Richardson: Day 2. The rawness and accuracy issues are real, and Mueller doesn’t believe that accuracy can be coached. (He also says that Josh Allen’s accuracy problems were overstated). Incredible raw talent, but Richardson could be five years out if he arrives at all.
Levis: Late first round. Has all the tools, but so did Kyle Boller. Terrific athlete, but still underthrows the deep ball and makes too many bad decision.
Young: High first round. Can make all the throws, even the complicated ones. Will struggle in an NFL pocket. Has concerns about Young’s durability and whether he can consistently hold up across 17 regular season games and up to three playoff games.
Stroud: The clear best of the four. No real weaknesses. “As fundamentally sound as has come out in a long time.” Great anticipation and feel for when receivers will come open. Will flush early from the pocket, but that’s nitpicking (according to Mueller). Still has upside and no significant downside.
I appreciate the thought exercise, but I wouldn't give up what it would take to move up to #2 if it means taking Bryce Young (since I think the Panthers are taking CJ Stroud). As a Draft Day trade, IF the Panthers take Young . . . my stance might change. But maybe not.
Personally, I'd prefer to stay at 5 and see who's available. I'm okay with drafting either Stroud (if he slides, which is unlikely) or Anthony Richardson. Zero interest in Will Levis, minimal interest in Bryce Young. If Stroud and Young are off the board, I'd love to get Will Anderson Jr. (would probably take him over any of the QBs) and would also consider Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzalez, and Bijan Robinson. Naturally, I'd also consider trading back if Anderson, Stroud, and Richardson were 3 of the first 4 picks.
I love all the love in this thread for Robinson. I live in Texas and I’ve seen him play in person. I believe he’s perfect weapon for the modern game. The last college player to break tackles like Robinson was Marshawn Lynch. Unlike Marshawn, Robinson can line up anywhere. He is match up nightmare. A linebacker can’t cover him and a and a slot corner can’t tackle him. If you bring a safety down to help then DK is one on one.
For everyone thinking we will get him at 20 think again. Between 5 and 20 the Lions, have two picks, the Eagle’s have a pick and the Packers have a pick. One of those teams will take him. This draft is deep in DL, we can get a rotational starter at 20.
If you are worried about Walker, don’t be. Nobody can last caring at 20 to 25 times a game. Tony Pollard just turned being the number 2 back into a franchise tag. Walker has to know that to get paid. He’s gonna have to last until his fifth year. For Walker Robinson is career insurance. I could go on but you get my point.
Like Kenneth I won’t be upset if the Seahawks trade their picks to draft a Qb at 2. I will be more the pleased if teams get stupid and Anderson falls to us. I will trust if they draft Carter, Richardson, or Levis at 5 but I will be ecstatic if they draft Robinson.
The fantasy world of draft wheeling and dealing provides countless possibilities...for any 12's dream picks. Personally I would go with any scenario that lands us Carter, Robinson and Schmidt.
A time that a team used two current first round picks to move up in the draft (since you asked!): very random, but in 1992 Cincinnati traded #4 (and #58) to Washington for #6 and #28 (and #84). #4 was Desmond Howard, #6 was David Klingler, and #28 was Darryl Williams.
The biggest trick in the draft is to figure out how the talent lays in the draft, value wise. Other than possibly two or three non-QB's this draft seems poorly for plug and play top talent. The rest are all second round talent, and soon after the 80's, the talent drops off to the point where most of them will not last in the NFL with a dozen or so exceptions that will be taken earlier than expected. Guys like Mingo, and some of the CB's and RB's because those position groups are very deep and looks good. Just my opinion so far in my studies of this draft.
I recommend the top fifty video by some guy. You'll find it or I will post it when I see it up next. I really hope I am wrong because we have so much draft capital this year. But if we see them trade down that will tell us something, and if they get draft picks next year that will tell us even more.
Last year they killed it, AND it was a great draft year for everything but QB's. They stayed put and did well right to the seventh round. I hope that happens again this year and that will prove me wrong and I will sign certificates to that effect, for anyone interested.
As I’ve said before, every time you write something up, I’m convinced it might happen......until the next post. Now I’m starting to think that you’re just writing up every scenario as convincing as possible just so you cover all bases so you can say that you predicted what the Hawks eventually do.
The second trade is the one I prefer, but mostly because I like the folks who show up around pick 30 when I'm drafterbating than those at 20. I'm betting that GMs are hot to draft my Ade Ade crush and Mazi Smith too though. The early 2nd is where most of my favourite players show up in the PFF simulator.
Typical PFF 2 round draft for me is:
1. Trade down from 5, pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and some more ammunition in 2nd round and later.
2. Trade down from 20, pick Will McDonald, get another 2nd rounder
3. Pick Mazi Smith (I think he makes too much sense for us, he'll probably be around at the top of the 2nd)
4. Pick Ade Ade (I think he'll go in the first)
5. Pick Daiyan Henley (good chance he's around)
6. Pick Luke Wypler, Joe Tippman, or Zach Charbonnet
Karl Brooks is usually there for me in the 3rd, or Tank Dell.
Mar 23, 2023·edited Mar 23, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
A well reasoned argument. The point that really gets me is the dynamic of having two QB-needy teams from the same division drafting in the top 4. How does Houston get what they want (if they want Anderson or Carter) while still blocking the Colts from what they most need? Fascinating.
I know the Hawks are giving the appearance of a team looking to draft a QB early, and I believe their interest is legitimate, but I also think they are making a show of it to entice trade partners. They want to have as much flexibility as they can to either take their guy or trade back depending on how the top four plays out. I have a hard time believing that they would give Lock the contract they did pre-draft, with guaranteed money, if they were going to attempt to trade up for a rookie QB. Wouldn't they be comfortable with Stroud or Young as the backup during their rookie season? Still, it's possible.
Kenneth, I have to thank you for the good laughs you provided me this morning. I enjoyed it and can see where your former gig as a stand up comedian (if I remember correctly) has translated into your writing. That being said, I can see where these possibilities could actually play out. I have always been disappointed when the Seahawks trade down in the draft and, as it often seems, the picks they get when trading down turn out to be busts or just mediocre players. I know to trade up, they will have to give up a boatload of draft capital this year (and possibly the next several) and the pick they choose could be a bust. The Jamal Adams trade cost them a lot of draft capital and I felt like they got the equivalent of a high first round pick for that capital and I was satisfied with that because he was already a proven commodity. However, after a great first year he seemed to become injury prone and has not played many games in any year since. I would hate to give up that draft capital and then see the player chosen have an injury history like Jimmy G or fail to live up to expectations, like Sam Darnold. That is one reason I would rather see them take a QB early on day two. I just don't want to see them pass up all the blue chip defensive talent up front if they have a chance to get them. But, again they too could be busts. The draft is an educated crapshoot. The mock draft crowd seems to pick who they think every other mock drafter will pick and no one but you goes into the financial end of it to see if their picks are financially tenable.
Due to the lack of cap space left and the fact that Pete loves Geno, my favored scenario is that the Seahawks are planning to trade out of 5 and into next year's first round, saving some cap this year and maybe giving them the ammunition to grab one of next year's top QB prospects.
How they accomplish this I have no idea but it has to be on their radar, wouldn't you think?
Exciting read ... Until I got to the part of what it would take.
I am still a Drew Lock fan and into his potential (still cannot find the reasons why people like Levis over Lock ... if someone comes across that let me know).
Having said that, if they do pull the trigger on this: that tells me all I need to know about how JS/PC feel about the dude and I will be pumped.
Everything depends on whether Houston is actually willing to trade the pick. Even though I think they should be, it would be historic if they moved. But luck is where opportunity meets preparation. From the outside looking in the Seahawks moves correspond to preparation.
Yes, I think it’s ‘look over here at the shiny thing’ while they’re actually doing something else. You have a hard job trying to work them out, but I reckon you’re the best at it. It also gives them a similar advantage in that none of the fans will be surprised by any choice they make coz we all expect them to do the unexpected these days. Bases covered.
Mike Sando’s interview with Randy Mueller about the top four QB prospects. (The Athletic NFL Football podcast) is worth a listen. In brief:
Richardson: Day 2. The rawness and accuracy issues are real, and Mueller doesn’t believe that accuracy can be coached. (He also says that Josh Allen’s accuracy problems were overstated). Incredible raw talent, but Richardson could be five years out if he arrives at all.
Levis: Late first round. Has all the tools, but so did Kyle Boller. Terrific athlete, but still underthrows the deep ball and makes too many bad decision.
Young: High first round. Can make all the throws, even the complicated ones. Will struggle in an NFL pocket. Has concerns about Young’s durability and whether he can consistently hold up across 17 regular season games and up to three playoff games.
Stroud: The clear best of the four. No real weaknesses. “As fundamentally sound as has come out in a long time.” Great anticipation and feel for when receivers will come open. Will flush early from the pocket, but that’s nitpicking (according to Mueller). Still has upside and no significant downside.
I appreciate the thought exercise, but I wouldn't give up what it would take to move up to #2 if it means taking Bryce Young (since I think the Panthers are taking CJ Stroud). As a Draft Day trade, IF the Panthers take Young . . . my stance might change. But maybe not.
Personally, I'd prefer to stay at 5 and see who's available. I'm okay with drafting either Stroud (if he slides, which is unlikely) or Anthony Richardson. Zero interest in Will Levis, minimal interest in Bryce Young. If Stroud and Young are off the board, I'd love to get Will Anderson Jr. (would probably take him over any of the QBs) and would also consider Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzalez, and Bijan Robinson. Naturally, I'd also consider trading back if Anderson, Stroud, and Richardson were 3 of the first 4 picks.
On a separate note, the official NFL draft list shows us with a 7th-round pick, #237 overall. Link: https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-order-for-all-seven-rounds
I love all the love in this thread for Robinson. I live in Texas and I’ve seen him play in person. I believe he’s perfect weapon for the modern game. The last college player to break tackles like Robinson was Marshawn Lynch. Unlike Marshawn, Robinson can line up anywhere. He is match up nightmare. A linebacker can’t cover him and a and a slot corner can’t tackle him. If you bring a safety down to help then DK is one on one.
For everyone thinking we will get him at 20 think again. Between 5 and 20 the Lions, have two picks, the Eagle’s have a pick and the Packers have a pick. One of those teams will take him. This draft is deep in DL, we can get a rotational starter at 20.
If you are worried about Walker, don’t be. Nobody can last caring at 20 to 25 times a game. Tony Pollard just turned being the number 2 back into a franchise tag. Walker has to know that to get paid. He’s gonna have to last until his fifth year. For Walker Robinson is career insurance. I could go on but you get my point.
Like Kenneth I won’t be upset if the Seahawks trade their picks to draft a Qb at 2. I will be more the pleased if teams get stupid and Anderson falls to us. I will trust if they draft Carter, Richardson, or Levis at 5 but I will be ecstatic if they draft Robinson.
After reading about Young's pro day on SDB I am more convinced that he will be there at 5 if the Seahawks wait it out.
The fantasy world of draft wheeling and dealing provides countless possibilities...for any 12's dream picks. Personally I would go with any scenario that lands us Carter, Robinson and Schmidt.
A time that a team used two current first round picks to move up in the draft (since you asked!): very random, but in 1992 Cincinnati traded #4 (and #58) to Washington for #6 and #28 (and #84). #4 was Desmond Howard, #6 was David Klingler, and #28 was Darryl Williams.
The biggest trick in the draft is to figure out how the talent lays in the draft, value wise. Other than possibly two or three non-QB's this draft seems poorly for plug and play top talent. The rest are all second round talent, and soon after the 80's, the talent drops off to the point where most of them will not last in the NFL with a dozen or so exceptions that will be taken earlier than expected. Guys like Mingo, and some of the CB's and RB's because those position groups are very deep and looks good. Just my opinion so far in my studies of this draft.
I recommend the top fifty video by some guy. You'll find it or I will post it when I see it up next. I really hope I am wrong because we have so much draft capital this year. But if we see them trade down that will tell us something, and if they get draft picks next year that will tell us even more.
Last year they killed it, AND it was a great draft year for everything but QB's. They stayed put and did well right to the seventh round. I hope that happens again this year and that will prove me wrong and I will sign certificates to that effect, for anyone interested.
Hmmm🤔.
As I’ve said before, every time you write something up, I’m convinced it might happen......until the next post. Now I’m starting to think that you’re just writing up every scenario as convincing as possible just so you cover all bases so you can say that you predicted what the Hawks eventually do.
I no-longer underestimate your sneakiness sir 😁.
The second trade is the one I prefer, but mostly because I like the folks who show up around pick 30 when I'm drafterbating than those at 20. I'm betting that GMs are hot to draft my Ade Ade crush and Mazi Smith too though. The early 2nd is where most of my favourite players show up in the PFF simulator.
Typical PFF 2 round draft for me is:
1. Trade down from 5, pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and some more ammunition in 2nd round and later.
2. Trade down from 20, pick Will McDonald, get another 2nd rounder
3. Pick Mazi Smith (I think he makes too much sense for us, he'll probably be around at the top of the 2nd)
4. Pick Ade Ade (I think he'll go in the first)
5. Pick Daiyan Henley (good chance he's around)
6. Pick Luke Wypler, Joe Tippman, or Zach Charbonnet
Karl Brooks is usually there for me in the 3rd, or Tank Dell.
A well reasoned argument. The point that really gets me is the dynamic of having two QB-needy teams from the same division drafting in the top 4. How does Houston get what they want (if they want Anderson or Carter) while still blocking the Colts from what they most need? Fascinating.
I know the Hawks are giving the appearance of a team looking to draft a QB early, and I believe their interest is legitimate, but I also think they are making a show of it to entice trade partners. They want to have as much flexibility as they can to either take their guy or trade back depending on how the top four plays out. I have a hard time believing that they would give Lock the contract they did pre-draft, with guaranteed money, if they were going to attempt to trade up for a rookie QB. Wouldn't they be comfortable with Stroud or Young as the backup during their rookie season? Still, it's possible.
Kenneth, I have to thank you for the good laughs you provided me this morning. I enjoyed it and can see where your former gig as a stand up comedian (if I remember correctly) has translated into your writing. That being said, I can see where these possibilities could actually play out. I have always been disappointed when the Seahawks trade down in the draft and, as it often seems, the picks they get when trading down turn out to be busts or just mediocre players. I know to trade up, they will have to give up a boatload of draft capital this year (and possibly the next several) and the pick they choose could be a bust. The Jamal Adams trade cost them a lot of draft capital and I felt like they got the equivalent of a high first round pick for that capital and I was satisfied with that because he was already a proven commodity. However, after a great first year he seemed to become injury prone and has not played many games in any year since. I would hate to give up that draft capital and then see the player chosen have an injury history like Jimmy G or fail to live up to expectations, like Sam Darnold. That is one reason I would rather see them take a QB early on day two. I just don't want to see them pass up all the blue chip defensive talent up front if they have a chance to get them. But, again they too could be busts. The draft is an educated crapshoot. The mock draft crowd seems to pick who they think every other mock drafter will pick and no one but you goes into the financial end of it to see if their picks are financially tenable.
Say hello to Alice while you're down there.
Due to the lack of cap space left and the fact that Pete loves Geno, my favored scenario is that the Seahawks are planning to trade out of 5 and into next year's first round, saving some cap this year and maybe giving them the ammunition to grab one of next year's top QB prospects.
How they accomplish this I have no idea but it has to be on their radar, wouldn't you think?
Exciting read ... Until I got to the part of what it would take.
I am still a Drew Lock fan and into his potential (still cannot find the reasons why people like Levis over Lock ... if someone comes across that let me know).
Having said that, if they do pull the trigger on this: that tells me all I need to know about how JS/PC feel about the dude and I will be pumped.
Everything depends on whether Houston is actually willing to trade the pick. Even though I think they should be, it would be historic if they moved. But luck is where opportunity meets preparation. From the outside looking in the Seahawks moves correspond to preparation.