Q&A: Do fans need to 'wori?
Pre-training camp Seahawks Q&A on 2nd round holdouts, Flop/Success test with rookies, and roster predictions
As 28 of 32 second round picks continue to holdout for fully-guaranteed contracts, the Seattle Seahawks have to worry about 1/14th of those situations. Will Nick Emmanwori and Elijah Arroyo sign their contracts in time for training camp next Wednesday and will those deals be fully-guaranteed?
That’s one of many questions I answered (plus one outsourced answer from an expert) in today’s Q&A Newsletter via questions by our Super Joes subscribers.
Join Super Joes to post your own questions and thoughts about the Seahawks, which I will continue as a running segment for the rest of the year:
Rusty: Do you think the Seahawks second round draft choices will remain out long? And would guaranteed contracts for the two (Emmanwori and Arroyo) be a problem? I personally would have no problem with guaranteed contracts for the two since this is a business that eats up and spits out the bodies of these players. But then it’s not my money. JS has typically held the line regarding contracts, but should he here?
SSJ: Generally speaking, I don’t think this is necessarily just a Schneider decision. Maybe if he was on his own he would pay out fully-guaranteed deals, but there is pressure from the rest of the league to not do that and Schneider still has to make dealings with the other 31 teams.
As I’ve briefly touched on in the past, Nick Emmanwori is at one of the keystone positions of the second round because he’s the highest-drafted unsigned player of this group at 35th overall. The two second round picks above him both signed the guaranteed contracts that have started this standoff, meaning that John Schneider can either follow the two GMs above him or hold out against all the other unsigned second rounders.
Because the 49ers have now signed 43rd overall pick Alfred Collins to a contract that is not fully guaranteed, we’re on track for Arroyo to NOT get a fully-guaranteed deal.
In a strange twist, the player picked after Emmanwori (RB Quinshon Judkins) was just arrested. It’s the exact type of situation that teams cite as a reason to not pay fully-guaranteed deals. Well, if the player after Emmanwori isn’t going to be fully-guaranteed, should Schneider use that as the leverage to not fully guarantee Emmanwori?
If I had to guess, all of the second round picks will sign by Monday, including Emmanwori and Arroyo, and none of them will get a fully-guaranteed deal. Which is a pretty small sticking point in the grand scheme of things, but teams still hold more leverage than players.
Nelly: Since signing Shaq Griffin back, I feel the defense is pretty solid. When the defense is in base nickel 3-4 under, what position/player is replaced by the Nickel? When in Nickel 4 over/2 DT 2 Rush/Edge, what position/player does the Nickel replace? The research points to the NT being replaced (putting 4 best pass rushers on Dline) while the Nickel can line up anywhere since both ILBs remain in?
SSJ: I didn’t want to screw this up so I outsourced your answer by asking an expert. This is what our friend All-22 Film wrote to me in response to your question:
When a team moves from their Base Defensive structure to a Nickel (commonly seen as a 4-2-5 Personnel), it will often be a Nose Tackle who is “removed” from the field to create a spot for the Nickel DB. In many cases, the NT is replaced by either a Nickel DB/Slot Corner, who becomes the 5th Defensive Back on the field. Hence, the “5” in the “4-2-5”.
But, in some more interesting scenarios, like Baltimore or Seattle, a starting outside CB will actually kick down to play Nickel. This allows a “new” DB to play outside CB on the next snap. The most high-profile examples of this are Devon Witherspoon and Marlon Humphrey, who both shift or move from outside CB to Nickel DB, depending on the Defensive Personnel on the field. It is what separates them, in my mind, from so many other DB’s in the NFL. They’re able to impact the game from an outside CB position or when aligned inside at Nickel.
In terms of who comes off the field to create the 4-2-5 Personnel group, on certain rosters, it might be a DE or a DT. All really depends on which players are assigned to a particular Personnel group. In most examples, it would be the NT that is removed to shift from a Base Defense to Nickel set. Some of the more elite DLine in the league can change that dynamic. Chris Jones and Leonard Williams are two players that move and shift all around the Defense, from a responsibility standpoint. And can alter the way that a Nickel set is produced.
SSJ: All-22 highlighted this unique ability by Witherspoon and Humphrey in a recent video:
Make sure to subscribe to All-22’s channel and leave comments on his Seahawks videos to inspire more content that will help us understand Mike Macdonald’s team better!
Danno: I’m excited for training camp. I’ll be going to the fan fest intra squad practice game at Lumen field on Aug 2nd, if any other ‘Joes’ reading this are going and want to meet up before the game feel free to let me know. I can’t wait to see how the offense looks and who might step up and surprise. I think the offense will be more effective than last year even if passing yards decrease.
SSJ: If anyone wants to coordinate a training camp meetup, check the comments!
Danno: Will Fant be on the 53? My gut says no because Arroyo will look like he can hit the ground running, but he has yet to sign a contract. I have the TE room as Arroyo, Barner, Russell TE3/FB2, and Ouzts FB1/TE4. They also have another high quality blocking TE in camp, but the name eludes me who I think is more likely to be on the 53 than Fant. The article two days ago on the cost of Spoon and JSN’s extensions has me thinking every dollar counts.
SSJ: If free agent Eric Saubert’s run blocking reputation is proven accurate in camp, I think he might fit Klint Kubiak’s plan better than Fant. The circumstantial evidence to part with Fant (probably via trade) is all there because the Seahawks drafted Elijah Arroyo and signed Saubert, in addition to already having A.J. Barner and Brady Russell.
The only reason I hesitate to kick Fant off of the roster is that I don’t know of any hard evidence, like Fant expressing a desire to leave or the team ducking questions about his future.
But numbers would suggest that if Arroyo looks good (John Schneider called him a “top-15 pick, if he was healthy”), Seattle has every reason to trade Fant. Teams may balk at his $8.5 million salary, but I can’t see a 27-year-old with his skillset being released.
Danno: I saw an expert predict the 53 and they had JSN, Kupp, and MVS as locks, AND had Horton on the bubble.
SSJ: So the last fourth or fifth round pick to find himself in trouble at the end of training camp was Gary Jennings in 2019. Jennings made the team but was released midseason without being activated for a single game.
Nobody would have predicted at the time that Jennings would be that bad, but it would certainly be a shock if Tory Horton failed to make the roster. And even Jennings technically made the 53-man roster.
Danno: Trade pick up? I think they will see about Mazi Smith, NT for the Cowboys. He played under Aden Durde and I believe MM was at Michigan when he was there. Dallas people have said trading him was a possibility.
You are correct: Former Cowboys defensive line coach Greg Ellis told “DLLS Cowboys” that Smith is a poor fit for new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus:
“Before we got there, it was more vertical, get up the field, get up the field. Really not Mazi’s game…He played better last year, he flashed some good stuff…he showed why the Cowboys drafted him (in the first round). Now we switching up again and from my understanding, it’s again more vertical charge. Hopefully they factor something into the equation to allow Mazi’s superhero ability to flash, but if not you may just need to trade him.”
As you note, Smith’s final season at Michigan came when Mike Macdonald was the defensive coordinator. The Seahawks don’t have a 330-lb “freak” on the defense, especially not one who is only 24. No idea what the Cowboys would want for him (Fant wouldn’t seem to have a place there with Jake Ferguson) but I can see why you’re connecting the dots.
Scott M: Not every draft choice is gonna be a hit...for fun, let's say half flop and half succeed. Of the 11 players the Seahawks drafted in 2025 which 5 will succeed, which 5 will flop, and which one will be neutral? Which 5 would you most like to see succeed and why?
SSJ: Let’s classify a “Flop” as someone who didn’t exceed his draft slot value and a “Success” as someone who met or surpassed it. Based on those criteria, I would group them like this:
Succeed: 1.18 G Grey Zabel, 2.50 TE Elijah Arroyo, 5.175 FB Robbie Ouzts, 7.223 RB Damien Martinez
These would be my four “safest” bets. This would essentially mean that Zabel is a Pro Bowl caliber guard/center, Arroyo is a top-15 tight end, Ouzts is a starting fullback, and Martinez is like DeeJay Dallas.
Flop: 3.92 QB Jalen Milroe, 5.142 DL Rylie Mills, 7.234 OL Mason Richman, 7.238 WR Ricky White
Nothing against these four players, but since I was pressed to name four flops I think these all have fair justifications. Milroe plays the most difficult position in the game. Mills is starting his career while he’s seriously injured. Richman and White have to fight to make the team. Fairly easy four picks for me and yes, we’re all rooting for these players to succeed, especially Milroe!
That leaves me three rookies I haven’t addressed, which means one success, one flop, and one neutral: Emmanwori, Horton, and Cabeldue.
I’ve already stuck my neck out for Bryce Cabeldue so I’m going to keep doing it and name him as the success. Maybe I just have residual negative feelings about Marquise Blair, so I’ll have Nick Emmanwori as the “neutral” and I’m left with no choice but to put Tory Horton as the “flop” by default.
I’m not anti-Emmanwori by any means. We just need to see that the on-field performance can eventually catch up to his insane athleticism. As a second round safety, “neutral” is still a starter who gets a second contract — think Kyle Dugger — so that’s not bad at all.
Alright I shared my flops, now share yours:
Join Super Joes to post your own questions and thoughts about the Seahawks this season. If I didn’t get to your question today, I’ll try to wrap these up by the weekend.
Seaside Joe 2327
I would like to meet other fans from here, so if at all practical I will try to do the Aug. 2 practice, but I am too old to promise anything. I might not feel up to it.
As to your article and questions: I will not agree to the terms of this deal. More than half are going to either be successes or neutral. They could all end up neutral without any successes, but I think Horton will exceed his draft position, and I expect most of these draft picks will either be successes or neutral. I think Arroyo will exceed his draft position, and so will Cabledue, and Marinez. So that's 4 I feel strongly about. Zabel just has to match his draft position, which according to your rules would not be "success" but neutral, and would make me very happy about drafting him.
The only likely failure will be, IMO, Richman. And, heck, even neutral for a 7th round draft choice would not make the 53, but get stashed on the practice squad.
Thanks for taking time to dive into SSJ community Q's...super cool. I very much agree with your take on who will, and who won't, out-play their draft position. Your logic behind your decisions seems valid. I'm less optimistic on Emmanwori, and Mills looks like he's at a disadvantage from the get go. I would love to see all the O line picks hit. Can you imagine if Zabel, Cabledue, and Richman all end up solid players...that would be awesome. Also really hoping the Milroe experiment pans out well, investment wise. WR in the late rounds don't usually make a ton of noise so i get it, but I really like Ricky White III's game. Not sure who he reminds me of, but he's gonna be one I'm keeping an eye on. Really digging Arroyo, he looks great on college tape...hope he keeps going. Zabel, Arroyo, and Milroe all were top in AWS NGS athleticism listing so in theory, if the output ever matches the athletic potential, look out other 31 teams. Again, I cannot understate this...I am so jacked for this year's practices and preseason. Cheers!