Players are not predictable, but Pete Carroll is
Players are not predictable, but Pete Carroll is
Seaside Joe 1241: Plus updates from around NFL training camps, including Seattle's NFC West rivals
It is often difficult to predict how most players will perform in a given season, especially when you’re going against what’s expected. For example, my belief that Grayson McCall is one of the top quarterback prospects in the country, or that Zach Wilson is on the verge of becoming a star, or going back a few years ago when I said that Jared Goff was not long for the Rams.
Early in my career, I realized that making these predictions was kind of foolish because no matter who you are, you’re bound to be wrong. At least about some things. And people only seem to come back around to point out your failures, there’s never any follow up on the things you got right, especially when those predictions fly in the face of popular takes.
Fair enough. You can’t go around implying that some people are “ignorant” and “only guided by their addiction to their Twitter notifications and follower count” and then expect them to come back around with a clipboard and a list of specific apologies for being so dumb. In part because those people would also have a list of things they got right and things they got wrong and nobody ever really knows anyone’s “NFL track record for predictions” except for their own.
The reason I rarely make any hard and fast predictions about how a player will do is not because I think I’m better than anyone else at it. I avoid making predictions because I know that I’m as bad as everyone else who does it.
If McCall is near as good as I’ve been saying he is, then yes, the community at Seaside Joe will hold a day of remembrance for all those who doubted us and our belief in him.
But if McCall closes out his career at Coastal Carolina on a low note and fades into obscurity like a modern day Jordan Lynch, then I’ll never hear the end of how dumb and idiotic I must be for believing in a player who wasn’t projected to be drafted. They’ll call Seaside Joe the “home of the bad takes,” kidnap my family, ruin my hardware business, and turn me into the government so the C.I.A. can do unauthorized experiments on my body.
However, if you turn this mirror on anyone and say, “Well, didn’t you say that Spencer Rattler, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson would be franchise quarterbacks? And none of those guys panned out.” (Hypothetical!) then how would that person answer that question?
“So?! Everybody thought that!”
So then you just base your opinions on what “everybody” says? Not because of any independent thought or research? How exciting for you, to not have to think.
It should not matter if one million people choose Rattler and only one person chooses McCall, it should only matter who you would choose. Most people do not have the time to do the research though and that’s where football-take-havers get their followings and in my opinion there are way too many resources now of football-take-havers who aren’t sharing their own opinions (they have none) and instead follow that “What do one million people say? I’ll just say that too” line of logic.
That’s related to what I mean about people giving opinions or sharing thoughts as it relates to their social media addiction: Are the statements truthful or are they tuned to what will get the “best” reaction?
At the time of the draft, there were a lot of Seahawks fans who believed that tweeting anger over the Ken Walker III selection would get a positive reaction because “running backs don’t matter” had gained popularity in recent years. However, they underestimated a different guiding principle towards roster building: “Fuck you, MY running back matters!”
Given the first game that Walker rushes for 190 yards and wows NFL faithful, Twitter may crash from the number of people in Seattle who are deleting old tweets. “Seahawks should have drafted Walker with pick nine,” they’ll say.
“Quarterbacks don’t matter,” they’ll pivot.
Is Walker going to be a star? I truly do not know. I can only say that as far as all running back draftees go over the last ~10 years from draft night to the start of training camp, he’s a great prospect relative to the hundreds of other running back prospects.
Is McCall going to become the talk of college football and the fastest riser in the 2023 NFL Draft? That’s an expectation I have, but I should have no more at risk for my reputation than someone who believes in Bryce Young (as I do) or C.J. Stroud. I feel better about defending it though because at least I know I did the research. But I don’t waste a lot of time making player predictions because performance is so unpredictable.
Pete Carroll’s Seahawks, however, are much easier to prognosticate.
The franchise has had the same front office leadership, in principle, for the last 13 years. Pete and John Schneider have operated with the same philosophies for the last 13 years and Pete said as much after Seattle traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. He wanted to emphasize that even if trading the franchise quarterback seemed out of the ordinary, in the Seahawks case it actually lines up with how he’s done most things since 2010.
I have followed Pete and John every season—and every offseason—on a daily basis since 2011 (one season as “just a fan”) and Seattle is in a unique position of being very predictable because only the Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens have longer tenured regimes than the Seahawks do.
That’s why I believe that Seaside Joe has a real value to Seahawks fans who want to read about what’s likely, what’s logical, and what’s realistic rather than “What’s going to make ME more popular?” and “What’s a purely emotional reaction to every little rumor that gets posited and every announcement that gets made that doesn’t exactly line up with what I believe?”
Them: “Hey, let’s speculate together and get angry!”
Seaside Joe: “Please don’t spend a second worrying about DK Metcalf’s contract situation, don’t listen to Tony Pauline, and don’t ask me about Baker Mayfield until I’ve had my coffee.”
Thursday’s news that the Seahawks signed DK Metcalf to a three-year, $72 million contract was exactly what I predicted the Seahawks would do, plus 24 hours: I said Seattle could get it done by Wednesday. I was off by a day, but on the money to the dollar.
That may be the last correct prediction I could make about the Seahawks all year, because there’s little else left for Pete to do for the roster other than make cuts. But it’s been a great offseason for Seaside Joe:
Said that Pete’s entire history led to drafting a left tackle with their first pick and immediately mocked Charles Cross to Seattle after the Wilson trade
Wrote that the Seahawks would likely pick LT-RB-EDGE with their first three picks, excepting that maybe Seahawks would favor CB over RB depending on who was available
Picked Quandre Diggs, Rashaad Penny, Sidney Jones as three of my five players that Seattle would re-sign, correctly noted that the Seahawks would sign one of their tight ends to a three-year, $24 million deal (got the TE wrong though), and my only misfire for the entire free agent class was Rasheem Green
Noted that the Seahawks would keep Tyler Lockett, extend Metcalf, and maintain that foundation for the next quarterback in 2023
Emphasized over and over again that the Seahawks would not draft a quarterback, especially not in the first two rounds, and that in fact there wasn’t a single QB worthy of a pick in that range other than Kenny Pickett (History will never remember how many mock drafts had Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder going in the top-10, including by your favorite “draft experts”)
Wrote that Seattle was likely to either double-down on offensive tackle or edge rusher, and they ended up doubling down on both
Did I nail everything in 2022? No. My final mock draft pick was Jordan Davis, I was wrong about Green, underestimated Pete’s adoration for Al Woods and Bryan Mone, and kind of doubled down on this theory I had about going after Goff as a bridge quarterback.
But the Metcalf contract, including the amount, should not even be that impressive. It should be standard! It should have been what anybody who says that they “cover the Seahawks” would have guessed would happen. It was so logical, so reasonable, and so predictable that I never thought twice about whether Seattle would extend Metcalf.
However, if the rest of the NFL world is just going to give me some freebies like that, I’ll take it.
At this time of year, I also like to track and follow what’s going on at the other 31 training camps. Who is standing out, who is not participating, and generally “What’s happenin’?”. Consider everything written after this to be more of an opportunity for me to keep notes than it is a fully fleshed out article, as these are a few notes I’ve gathered from either other camps in the first week. Including the other three NFC West teams.
Three other notes:
I did a test run of my GoPro in the Laps 4 Lock challenge. I will run five miles for every TD pass by Drew Lock this season. The GoPro came out great, but the battery did die after 75 minutes, so if Lock has more than one touchdown I’m not sure what I’ll do yet.
If you do graphic design gigs, let me know, I might like to hire you for some Seaside Joe images to use on the site and on social media.
I have written over 600,000 words on the Seahawks this year already, but I would like to hit one million by the end of December. What I could use from you: Help get the word out. You sharing Seaside Joe with people is our main means of growth. It’s free and it helps a lot!
49ers
Trey Lance-My friend Kyle Posey at Niners Nation noted that Lance has been erratic through the first two days of camp, but the 49ers have been practicing without Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on offense. I expect both to be fully on board by Week 1. But Lance can’t continue to play in the regular season like he has in the early days of camp or San Francisco might actually have to keep Jimmy Garoppolo around.
When Lance misses, he misses badly. He had a few errant throws today that would have made you cover your eyes. One was a simple 5-yard in route to Jauan Jennings that was off by 4-5 yards.
His interception to Jimmie Ward was a Jimmy G. special where he threw it right to the underneath defender without acknowledging where he came from.
There will be a few more deep shots with Lance under center, but the offense remains largely unchanged. The biggest difference is that we’re seeing many isolation routes being thrown outside of the numbers.
The secondary is standing out-The Niners infamously had one of the worst secondaries a few years ago, prior to Richard Sherman’s second season with the team, so even if SF is iffy at quarterback again it seems like the defense continues to be good. Or Lance was just that bad.
Emmanuel Moseley and Charvarius Ward contested each target they had. The duo is impressive. I’d go as far as to say Ward looks bored already and is ready for a new challenge. He broke up a couple of passes and appeared to be the much-needed press cornerback the Niners have been searching for.
Cardinals
Kyler Murray—In the last four days, we found out that the Cards gave Murray an unprecedented “independent study” clause, which Ian Rapoport tried to smoothly sell (as an employee of the league) as a cool thing that cool dudes do, then finally Murray talked and said he found the reaction to be “disrespectful” because he actually like totally works hard or whatever, and then Arizona REMOVED the clause from his contract. As if a) we would forget and b) that did anyone but Kyler Murray a huge favor.
I’ve always said that the problems begin with ownership. You should recall that the Bills didn’t make the playoffs from 2000 to 2013, only posting one winning season, and then new owners came aboard in 2014. Buffalo immediately went 9-7 and they’ve been the playoffs in four of the last five years.
The Cardinals have been owned by the Bidwell family…SINCE 1932. Arizona’s Super Bowl team in 2008 and Carson Palmer’s run to the NFC championship in 2015 are the only two times that Arizona has made it past the divisional round.
Injuries—LT D.J. Humphries and WR Hollywood Brown were sitting out. I won’t over-cover injuries here because with veterans it shouldn’t matter until the week before the first game.
More—WR/ST Greg Dortch is standing out, former first round pick Isaiah Simmons could play more safety this season.
Rams
Allen Robinson’s early praise—The Rams signed WR Allen Robinson to replace Odell Beckham Jr and Robert Woods and so far it seems like L.A. actually upgraded at wide receiver. If healthy, Robinson has proven to be a viable #1 threat. Second-year receiver Tutu Atwell, drafted in the same range as Dee Eskridge and similarly not much to show for his rookie year, is also standing out according to Sean McVay.
Edge Rusher—L.A. lost Von Miller in free agency, a key to their Super Bowl run, and didn’t bring anybody to replace him. But seventh round rookie Daniel Hardy “has flashed” according to McVay. It still seems like Justin Hollins or Terrell Lewis will start opposite of Leonard Floyd, and Floyd had praise for third-year Lewis.
CB opposite Jalen Ramsey—The Rams are holding a competition for the third cornerback spot after trading for Troy Hill in the offseason and so far it seems like second-year Robert Rochell is in the lead. But rookie sixth round pick Derion Kendrick out of Georgia could be up to speed in a hurry, based on early reports.
Jaguars
Defense could be underrated—Reports on Jacksonville’s defense in the early going are quite positive and looking over them again, it’s not that surprising. Edge rusher Josh Allen may be the only Jags defensive player expected to star this year, but there are a ton of breakout candidates: CB Tyson Campbell (most likely), EDGE Travon Walker, ILB Devin Lloyd, DE Dawuane Smoot, and LB Foyesade Oluokun, NT Folorunso Fatukasi, and CB Darious Williams were all solid signings.
Or it’s just Trevor Lawrence continuing to be bad, who knows?
This is Mike Caldwell’s first season as a defensive coordinator after spending the last three as the inside linebackers coach for the Bucs. I know I’ve been hard on Devin White on this newsletter in the past, but I think I overestimated his setbacks and given White’s development, that’s a good sign for Devin Lloyd (missed practice).
Standouts—CB Montaric Brown was the 222nd overall pick this year but he’s been one of the most impressive players through camp this week. CB Tre Herndon has also been getting love; with Campbell, Brown, Herndon doing so well and Williams being the new guy, it’s a wonder what role Griffin will have. Believe it or not, he’s the second-highest paid cornerback in the NFL this season and he is going to be a cap casualty in 2023 if he doesn’t do better than he did in 2021.
Bucs
Julio Jones added—Jones is the 14th wide receiver signed to Tampa Bay’s roster, a team that already has Chris Godwin (recovering), Mike Evans, and Russell Gage. There’s no question those four are on the roster, but Tampa also has former Seahawk Cyril Grayson, Breshad Perriman, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, and 2021 fourth round pick Jaelon Darden.
Ryan Jensen injury—It sounds as though Tom Brady’s center suffered a bad injury. The Bucs are already replacing both guards.
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka breakout—The former UW edge rusher who opted out in 2020 and flashed a lot of potential as a rookie is apparently on the way up as expected.
During practice, his pursuit skills flashed. He flew around the edge like a missile during team period, collapsing the pocket and forcing an early throw. Antoine Winfield Jr. then made a diving interception to give the defense an advantage over the offense.
"He's a freak. He's so twitchy, so long …he's strong. He can make such big movements so quick…have to make sure your feet are in the ground with him because he can shimmy, but he can still come to power too. You have to be ready for anything."
Raiders
Standouts—Friend Bill Williamson of Silver and Black Pride says ILB Darien Butler, CB Duron Harmon, WR Mack Hollins, WR Tyron Johnson, iOL Dylan Parham, CB Rock Ya-Sin as standouts. This is a good time to also say that I often see players stand out in week one of training camp, only to be released, if not cut before cut day. We’re just sending out feelers right now.
Lester Cotton’s time—One of the OL surprises so far is Cotton, a former UDFA in 2019 who Raiders coaches have been talking up all offseason and likely to start at right guard. He could be playing next to Brandon Parker at right tackle, because 2021 first rounder Alex Leatherwood may be the latest and final huge draft mistake by Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock.
Tre’Von Moehrig—A good draft decision was Moehrig, a second round safety out of TCU. He seems to be starring early.
Cowboys
More Micah—It doesn’t seem like Micah Parsons’ star is fading any time soon, as he’s been called the best player on the field. The Defensive Rookie of the Year/All-Pro, finished-second-in-DPOY voting, was drafted one pick after the Bears traded up for Justin Fields. I wonder if one day we’ll talk about how close Chicago was to drafting another Hall of Fame linebacker. Or maybe we’ll be too distracted by the fact that the 49ers traded up from 12 to 3 for Trey Lance that same year.
It’s early.
Surprise WR2—The Cowboys are waiting to get back Michael Gallup from injury and with Amari Cooper traded to Cleveland, that leaves a hole on the offense for another receiver to get his opportunity to make a lot of money. Free agent James Washington is battling rookie third rounder Jalen Tolbert, but UDFA Dennis Houston is off to a good start, as is T.J. Vasher. Washington never did anything in Pittsburgh to be handed a starting gig, so I think the reasonable wish is to see what Tolbert can do.
USFL MVP signing—The Cowboys signed USFL MVP Kavontae Turpin and the 5’9, 155 lb returner will compete….to be the returner.
Bills
I knew it!!!—One of my favorite players in the draft this year, I wrote about him at Seaside Joe as a potential “Doug Baldwin,” was receiver Khalil Shakir. Well, he’s standing out! The fifth round pick has really been getting that talk all offseason and it’s continuing at training camp. Buffalo’s receiver depth makes it hard to picture Shakir getting a lot of opportunities as a rookie, but the “Gabe Davis track” could put him on pace to be starting in 2024.
Isaiah McKenzie is expected to start in the slot between Stefon Diggs and Davis, while Jamison Crowder was added in free agency.
CB Depth—Buffalo has Tre’Davious White (PUP) and first round pick Kaiir Elam, but it’s 2021 UDFA Nick McCloud and fourth-year CB Cam Lewis making noise early. Even then, Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson figure to be starting/near starting and Tim Harris is likely a key backup, so the Bills may have a tough cut to make from this group.
Von Miller’s presence has also been called “standout.”
Ed Oliver’s year—The ninth overall pick in 2019, Oliver quietly had a really good season in 2021, but he will get a lot more notice this season. He’s off to a fast start in camp and he could be one of the NFL’s highest-paid DTs in 2023.
Overall, what did I say about the Bills and ownership? Buffalo is my favorite in the AFC.
Great stuff. I need to give you your due. At minimum, until you brought him out I hadn't even heard of Grayson McCall, and while I knew of him, you were the one who showed me his brilliance as a RB. There are many, many other examples but my point is we read, hear and see so much content that you forget where it comes from. Are you the Oracle of Delphi? (I say that with affection) Probably not. But I do feel you have some of the most insightful and well-reasoned football takes out there. We are quite lucky to have you doing what you're doing. You are quite literally good at writing about football. I'm not one to spread praise easily so don't expect this often! Just felt it needed to be said. Now, get back to informing us about football!
Hey Kenneth,
Because it actually matters this year, will you please occasionally buddy up with a quality writer (like yourself) who dishes it up for Bronco fans? It will be especially fun to know of any challenges they are facing, which might lead to better draft pics in next year's first and second rounds...as you know, any disfunction going on there is good news for us 12's.