The thing about trying to find the "next Josh Allen" is you actually have to try. If they think Levis is basically traits and raw potential and think they can turn him into a superstar I don't really see a problem. They already got a top 10 QB out of the Wilson trade so this top 5 pick is basically house money.
Whatever happened to drafting the best player available? I know the QB position is special, and worthy of taking risks, but you didn't convince me to take Levis. If we do, I will fall in line, but until then, I am skeptical.
Great analysis. My hope is that free agency removes the leading teams that keep being connected to QBs in the draft. I hope you are right about there being less excitement about these QBs. All have some pretty profound limitations. I think Las Vegas signs a QB. I'm not sure that Houston thinks it's time to draft a QB in the 1st round at pick 2, a QB doesn't solve their issues and a failure gets everyone fired. I could see them taking Will Anderson. I think Indy takes a QB, and I think whoever picks at #1 takes a QB, potentially even Chicago. So I've got two QB off the board before we pick. I don't see Carolina taking a development QB, so them signing Jimmy Garroppolo makes a lot of sense to me. Detroit may be happy with Goff, but I wouldn't rule out them taking a development QB. Atlanta needs a QB but they could find one in free agency. Green Bay and Tampa Bay, those are the teams I could see moving up to draft a QB in the top 10, but I don't think they have the resources to get it done for #1 or even maybe the top 10, they may sit and hope for a fall, maybe trade up ahead of Houston at 12. If Houston doesn't take a QB, there probably won't be much trade market for Arizona. They'll have to take their favourite defensive player, and I don't see why people are only talking about EDGE for them, they need CB too. What this leaves me with is if we want a 1st round QB, we probably have to take them at 5 or hope that the Raiders want to trade up for a defensive player and Detroit is happy with Goff. If I can trade down to the Raiders and target Levis or Richardson, that's probably the ideal spot and resource allocation. It's also a good spot for a 2nd trade down with GB or TB. Either way, I bring back Drew Lock, but not Geno. I think Geno will make his money.
We'll agree to disagree on 'science being dominated by special interests'. There is 'science' which is subject to scientific methods and challenged by peer review and verifiable replication, and there is peudo-science put forth by special interests 'pretending' to be actual science.
Mar 3, 2023·edited Mar 3, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
Great premise for an article and I appreciate the links to film reviews.
I feel better about the world not immediately ending if the Hawks pick Levis at #5, but I also feel conformation in feeling a little bit nauseous when I think about it. It's a huge risk because there is no middle ground with a QB pick at #5. He's either your new franchise QB for the next 3-5 years or a complete waste of the best draft pick you've had in a decade.
Pete and John don't seem shy about sharing their interest in picking a QB early and I think it's very interesting to see how they're playing this game. They are putting Geno on notice, but also telling the entire league that if you covet Levis or Richardson you better pay up to come get him. Their interest in a rookie QB could be legit, but it could be just for show, and it's in their best interest to show a lot of interest. Interesting!
I have been thinking that Seattle would draft Levis at 5 for some time now. As far as athletic ability, he has everything that John Schneider looks for in a quarterback. Size, arm strength, mobility, toughness and character are all plus traits for Levis. Timing and accuracy can be coached and it seems that Levis has a tremendous work ethic and a desire to be better. A great QB has to be a great leader and everyone around him says that he checks that box easily. If he is available at 5 and the Seahawks draft him, we should all run around the room sans pants because if John Schneider and company think he is worthy of a #5 pick, who are we to say otherwise?
The #5 pick feels awfully rich to use on a guy who isn't a sure thing. But in this class, as you point out, a sure thing QB would be gone long before 5.
I'm not a Levis fan but I have probably not been fair to him. Seahawks Draft Blog is part of the reason. Rob banged his drum last year and I didn't see it. This season I tried to watch more of his games, and his play on Saturday's just didn't wow me. I wrote as much and my comment was removed. Instead of shrugging my shoulders and moving on, I doubled down. I began to watch Kentucky games looking for reasons that "this guy sucks." I am not a football talent evaluator and probably don't spend 5% of the time watching that Rob does. I should really just keep my favorites -or at least my least favorites -to myself and just see where they go and how they turn out. For every guy I'm right on, there are more I'm wrong on. I don't understand how anyone expected Josh Allen to amount to the player he's become. I have no idea if Kancey's arm length is going to be a problem at the next level. I'm not even sure I understand what makes me "like" watching a player other than feeling like they make plays. But I suppose if a GM were being honest, there's a lot of guesswork involved in their projections just like ours. And it's the offseason so what else are we supposed to talk about? But college player evaluations are certainly not a subject that casual fans of football should be getting defensive about or taking opposing views personally over. And I've been teetering on the edge of doing so. Top 10 picks couldn't wash out of the league and late rounders couldn't turn into stars if this were science.
I’ve written this before, but what the heck. A team can buy every argument that Levis fans make—poor coaching, bad scheme, injuries, lesser talent to work with—and still believe that a top 5 draft pick should show more. When you go up against the equivalent of AA baseball and still leave questions about your accuracy and decision-making, it’s a problem. And, yes, it is reasonable to conclude that Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow would have done better in the same situation.
At a time when science is so often 'denied', it is refreshing to see good science in your approach. The "null hypotheses"... make a hypotheses, then strive to prove it wrong.
Kenneth, this is the type of piece that keeps me around. Recognizing your own bias and trying to prove yourself wrong? Brilliant stuff.
Levis is appealing to me mostly because of the man he seems to be. While he is more mature from an age standpoint, he also acts like a pro from every interview and statement I've seen. I'd argue the reason QBs succeed or fail more often than not comes down to these things. Example: I believe if Zach Wilson were a better leader, he might still be the starter. Instead, he lost the locker room to Mike White is basically unstartable.
When we look at the best QBs to be selected in recent years, the ones who have succeeded tend to have great personalities. Josh Allen hasn't succeeded cause he was great at football coming into the league, but because he worked at it and was able to improve. Patrick Mahomes wasn't particularly great at football either. Major draftniks didn't even have him in rd 1. Yet the man he is and the situation he went to allowed for development.
No one can argue Levis is a great football player today. He's not. But what you can argue is that he has every intangible you look for. He led a Kentucky team this year that probably should have gone 3-9 or something. He took a beating and kept battling. And every word out of the program is that he's beloved. What does all this add up to?
In a normal year, I think Levis might go late top 10 or in the Jordan Love range. But this is not a normal year. This class is very weak at the top. Because of that, I believe a player like Levis will go earlier than he maybe should. If it was the Hawks that take him? I'll be content knowing we at least bet on a guy with crazy upside and great character.
Are we sure Penn State didn't pick the correct QB? Just looking at their numbers, they are both pretty similar. The big difference seems to be their arms and their size. Clifford's decision making seems to be better as well. And Clifford isn't likely to be drafted, so it's going to be physical projection and a prayer someone can teach Levis what he needs to take the next steps to greatness. I don't really see Levis as a first rounder. Could he be made into a really good QB? Sure. Do you really want to gamble with the #5 pick to do so? Not me. But I'm sure some awful franchise will wishcast their way into picking him way earlier than the talent says they should.
Great article and thanks for doing the research. You have made me a little lazy because I look forward to reading your articles every day. Sounds like he's a good guy and a competitor but a 1st rounder? I love the deeper insight to the players and getting to know them better and because of that, I do wish him success.
I wouldn’t want the Hawks to draft any player in the early rounds with so many fundamentals questions, regardless of what position he plays. I’ve never watched this kid play but if his accuracy is one of his weaknesses then he wouldn’t be one of my draft picks for QB. Can he catch and block? Maybe TE, if he’s willing to switch positions.
See, this is why we need to keep spreading Seaside Joe to as many people as possible. A fully honest article where each point (point, not opinion) is then answered with an example. Self aware, in depth, quality article. - yet again!
Still hasn't sold me on Levis ahead of Day 2, but has made me think a little differently about his college stats (not that it makes up for the questionable on field game tape, and if he can step up two or three levels to be a genuine Superbowl leading QB).
The "good at football" question is the deal-breaker I would think. And, ok, Penn State may have been confused about how to run its offense and Levis might have paid the price for that, but if he was really *that good* he would have beaten out his competition there.
One of the reasons I like JJ McCarthy at MICH (he will be talked about a lot next year) is that he played a bit as a true freshman and beat out his competition, Cade McNamara (since transferred), to start as a junior.
To me, Levis just isn't a Rd 1 prospect never mind top 5, but that opinion plus $5 gets you something something at Starbucks.
The thing about trying to find the "next Josh Allen" is you actually have to try. If they think Levis is basically traits and raw potential and think they can turn him into a superstar I don't really see a problem. They already got a top 10 QB out of the Wilson trade so this top 5 pick is basically house money.
Hooker is starting to interest me. Is late second too late or too early or is it perfect porridge?
Whatever happened to drafting the best player available? I know the QB position is special, and worthy of taking risks, but you didn't convince me to take Levis. If we do, I will fall in line, but until then, I am skeptical.
Great analysis. My hope is that free agency removes the leading teams that keep being connected to QBs in the draft. I hope you are right about there being less excitement about these QBs. All have some pretty profound limitations. I think Las Vegas signs a QB. I'm not sure that Houston thinks it's time to draft a QB in the 1st round at pick 2, a QB doesn't solve their issues and a failure gets everyone fired. I could see them taking Will Anderson. I think Indy takes a QB, and I think whoever picks at #1 takes a QB, potentially even Chicago. So I've got two QB off the board before we pick. I don't see Carolina taking a development QB, so them signing Jimmy Garroppolo makes a lot of sense to me. Detroit may be happy with Goff, but I wouldn't rule out them taking a development QB. Atlanta needs a QB but they could find one in free agency. Green Bay and Tampa Bay, those are the teams I could see moving up to draft a QB in the top 10, but I don't think they have the resources to get it done for #1 or even maybe the top 10, they may sit and hope for a fall, maybe trade up ahead of Houston at 12. If Houston doesn't take a QB, there probably won't be much trade market for Arizona. They'll have to take their favourite defensive player, and I don't see why people are only talking about EDGE for them, they need CB too. What this leaves me with is if we want a 1st round QB, we probably have to take them at 5 or hope that the Raiders want to trade up for a defensive player and Detroit is happy with Goff. If I can trade down to the Raiders and target Levis or Richardson, that's probably the ideal spot and resource allocation. It's also a good spot for a 2nd trade down with GB or TB. Either way, I bring back Drew Lock, but not Geno. I think Geno will make his money.
We'll agree to disagree on 'science being dominated by special interests'. There is 'science' which is subject to scientific methods and challenged by peer review and verifiable replication, and there is peudo-science put forth by special interests 'pretending' to be actual science.
Great premise for an article and I appreciate the links to film reviews.
I feel better about the world not immediately ending if the Hawks pick Levis at #5, but I also feel conformation in feeling a little bit nauseous when I think about it. It's a huge risk because there is no middle ground with a QB pick at #5. He's either your new franchise QB for the next 3-5 years or a complete waste of the best draft pick you've had in a decade.
Pete and John don't seem shy about sharing their interest in picking a QB early and I think it's very interesting to see how they're playing this game. They are putting Geno on notice, but also telling the entire league that if you covet Levis or Richardson you better pay up to come get him. Their interest in a rookie QB could be legit, but it could be just for show, and it's in their best interest to show a lot of interest. Interesting!
I have been thinking that Seattle would draft Levis at 5 for some time now. As far as athletic ability, he has everything that John Schneider looks for in a quarterback. Size, arm strength, mobility, toughness and character are all plus traits for Levis. Timing and accuracy can be coached and it seems that Levis has a tremendous work ethic and a desire to be better. A great QB has to be a great leader and everyone around him says that he checks that box easily. If he is available at 5 and the Seahawks draft him, we should all run around the room sans pants because if John Schneider and company think he is worthy of a #5 pick, who are we to say otherwise?
The #5 pick feels awfully rich to use on a guy who isn't a sure thing. But in this class, as you point out, a sure thing QB would be gone long before 5.
I'm not a Levis fan but I have probably not been fair to him. Seahawks Draft Blog is part of the reason. Rob banged his drum last year and I didn't see it. This season I tried to watch more of his games, and his play on Saturday's just didn't wow me. I wrote as much and my comment was removed. Instead of shrugging my shoulders and moving on, I doubled down. I began to watch Kentucky games looking for reasons that "this guy sucks." I am not a football talent evaluator and probably don't spend 5% of the time watching that Rob does. I should really just keep my favorites -or at least my least favorites -to myself and just see where they go and how they turn out. For every guy I'm right on, there are more I'm wrong on. I don't understand how anyone expected Josh Allen to amount to the player he's become. I have no idea if Kancey's arm length is going to be a problem at the next level. I'm not even sure I understand what makes me "like" watching a player other than feeling like they make plays. But I suppose if a GM were being honest, there's a lot of guesswork involved in their projections just like ours. And it's the offseason so what else are we supposed to talk about? But college player evaluations are certainly not a subject that casual fans of football should be getting defensive about or taking opposing views personally over. And I've been teetering on the edge of doing so. Top 10 picks couldn't wash out of the league and late rounders couldn't turn into stars if this were science.
I’ve written this before, but what the heck. A team can buy every argument that Levis fans make—poor coaching, bad scheme, injuries, lesser talent to work with—and still believe that a top 5 draft pick should show more. When you go up against the equivalent of AA baseball and still leave questions about your accuracy and decision-making, it’s a problem. And, yes, it is reasonable to conclude that Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow would have done better in the same situation.
At a time when science is so often 'denied', it is refreshing to see good science in your approach. The "null hypotheses"... make a hypotheses, then strive to prove it wrong.
KUDOS!
Kenneth, this is the type of piece that keeps me around. Recognizing your own bias and trying to prove yourself wrong? Brilliant stuff.
Levis is appealing to me mostly because of the man he seems to be. While he is more mature from an age standpoint, he also acts like a pro from every interview and statement I've seen. I'd argue the reason QBs succeed or fail more often than not comes down to these things. Example: I believe if Zach Wilson were a better leader, he might still be the starter. Instead, he lost the locker room to Mike White is basically unstartable.
When we look at the best QBs to be selected in recent years, the ones who have succeeded tend to have great personalities. Josh Allen hasn't succeeded cause he was great at football coming into the league, but because he worked at it and was able to improve. Patrick Mahomes wasn't particularly great at football either. Major draftniks didn't even have him in rd 1. Yet the man he is and the situation he went to allowed for development.
No one can argue Levis is a great football player today. He's not. But what you can argue is that he has every intangible you look for. He led a Kentucky team this year that probably should have gone 3-9 or something. He took a beating and kept battling. And every word out of the program is that he's beloved. What does all this add up to?
In a normal year, I think Levis might go late top 10 or in the Jordan Love range. But this is not a normal year. This class is very weak at the top. Because of that, I believe a player like Levis will go earlier than he maybe should. If it was the Hawks that take him? I'll be content knowing we at least bet on a guy with crazy upside and great character.
Are we sure Penn State didn't pick the correct QB? Just looking at their numbers, they are both pretty similar. The big difference seems to be their arms and their size. Clifford's decision making seems to be better as well. And Clifford isn't likely to be drafted, so it's going to be physical projection and a prayer someone can teach Levis what he needs to take the next steps to greatness. I don't really see Levis as a first rounder. Could he be made into a really good QB? Sure. Do you really want to gamble with the #5 pick to do so? Not me. But I'm sure some awful franchise will wishcast their way into picking him way earlier than the talent says they should.
Great article and thanks for doing the research. You have made me a little lazy because I look forward to reading your articles every day. Sounds like he's a good guy and a competitor but a 1st rounder? I love the deeper insight to the players and getting to know them better and because of that, I do wish him success.
I wouldn’t want the Hawks to draft any player in the early rounds with so many fundamentals questions, regardless of what position he plays. I’ve never watched this kid play but if his accuracy is one of his weaknesses then he wouldn’t be one of my draft picks for QB. Can he catch and block? Maybe TE, if he’s willing to switch positions.
See, this is why we need to keep spreading Seaside Joe to as many people as possible. A fully honest article where each point (point, not opinion) is then answered with an example. Self aware, in depth, quality article. - yet again!
Still hasn't sold me on Levis ahead of Day 2, but has made me think a little differently about his college stats (not that it makes up for the questionable on field game tape, and if he can step up two or three levels to be a genuine Superbowl leading QB).
The "good at football" question is the deal-breaker I would think. And, ok, Penn State may have been confused about how to run its offense and Levis might have paid the price for that, but if he was really *that good* he would have beaten out his competition there.
One of the reasons I like JJ McCarthy at MICH (he will be talked about a lot next year) is that he played a bit as a true freshman and beat out his competition, Cade McNamara (since transferred), to start as a junior.
To me, Levis just isn't a Rd 1 prospect never mind top 5, but that opinion plus $5 gets you something something at Starbucks.