Draft Notes
More quarterbacks have come out in favor of Mac Jones. Kurt Warner has him third, behind Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Trent Dilfer said that Jones is a “borderline genius” at football. Sage Rosenfels, who worked with Kyle Shanahan for three years, says that Jones has elite processing and is a perfect fit for that offense. Joe Namath compared him to Tom Brady and basically said that he wishes the Jets would draft Jones. Shaun King said that by game film, Jones is the best QB in the draft. Kirk Herbstreit, who played at Ohio State and not Alabama, called Jones a “surgeon” because of how quickly he can process the offense and recognize pre-snap coverage. Expect more and more names like these ones to come out in favor of Mac Jones leading up to April 29th because everyone’s going to start to want to look “smart” when he goes to the 49ers.
The only people in the media who continue to bash Mac Jones seems to be anyone who is feeling defensive about being pro-Justin Fields. I have absolutely no idea when Bucky Brooks became a devout 49ers fan who sounds devastatingly worried that Kyle Shanahan will choose Jones over Fields. Why should it matter to anybody in the media where Justin Fields and Mac Jones get drafted? There is no greater meaning to a player’s “draft value” than the amount they get paid (which has never been a concern to anyone other than the player himself, as far as I know) and a perception that may follow that player for the rest of his career. But why should anyone other than these players and their families be concerned with whether or not they play in the Bay Area or Detroit or Boston or D.C. or Chicago for the next 1-20 years? (I wouldn’t have started at one year but thanks a lot Josh Rosen.) There is no logical reason to attach personal stakes to a player’s draft position and if the 49ers wanted to trade up for Jones, why should that be of anyone else’s concern other than the 49ers?
I don’t believe the 49ers traded up just for the opportunity to make a decision on who they were going to draft, a ridiculous theory I’ve read that if true, would be a worse move than trading for Jimmy Garoppolo. If they didn’t know who they were in love with, then they should have never traded three first round picks. Doesn’t that make the most rational sense? So if we assume that the 49ers traded up for a player who they fell in love with — it’s not as though San Francisco is doing their QB homework for the first time in April like most of the NFL media does — then it means that attending the Justin Fields and Trey Lance pro days were a farce. Or at least, one of them was a farce. It wouldn’t be out of character for Kyle Shanahan to play the part of a draft farce either. He and Lynch worked on a plan to convince people that they might draft Mitchell Trubisky in 2017 and that was enough to acquire draft capital from the Bears. A move that was roundly praised at the time, but then with hindsight you have to ask yourself: A) How did that impact San Francisco’s relationship with Chicago once they started bragging about it? B) They still didn’t draft Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson that year. They drafted Solomon Thomas. So it was not a win. But Shanahan knows how to bluff. His dad knew how to bluff. The only question is…why the hell are they trying to bluff anybody at this point? They already made the trade. That’s why “smokescreen” talk with Mac Jones wouldn’t make any sense either. It could be that once both wanted to set up second pro days, they had little choice but to attend. But I still think it’s logical to assume that at least one of them is a farce and up to now, many NFL people think quarterback pro days are always a farce.
The one player who might ruin my bet for Mac Jones to be the third overall pick would not be Justin Fields. It would not be Trey Lance either, though I guess he could be more likely than Fields. It’s Watson. One thing that is obvious and undeniable about this case is that Watson’s lawyer Rusty Hardin — both lawyers as a matter of fact — have worked hard to battle this out in the court of public opinion. And fast. I don’t recall anything like this happening when Antonio Brown was hit with a civil assault case last year. There are many reasons why Watson’s lawyer would want to clear his client’s name in general, but at this point it does seem as though Hardin is trying to hit a deadline and that date could be April 29th. That could be the day that Hardin feels he needs to make Watson a viable trade candidate again and at a price that the Houston Texans would accept. That price could include the third overall pick and I would see a reason for the Texans to draft Fields over Jones. But since that pick belongs to the 49ers right now, I’m confident that it will be Jones.
San Francisco can’t go into next season with the ghost of the ghost of the ghost of Jimmy Garoppolo and a backup who has played one season of division-13 football and only one such scrimmage in the previous two years by the time the games begin again.
Will we ever set out to challenge people who refer to a draft prospect’s alleged “ceiling”? I mean, could there be a more meaningless category than that? And yet, it’s been hyped up as the most important single thing to focus on even though a player’s “ceiling” is nothing more than our imagination of what they could be rather than what they already are. A player’s “floor” then is usually an indication of where a player already is, attached to a belief that no more growth is possible. With that in mind, Jones has played at a “floor” that includes arguably Alabama’s best year under Nick Saban and a Heisman season that somehow didn’t get him close to the Heisman. Even with Zach Wilson, I believe that he has gained ground over Jones more so because of an imaginary outcome to his development rather than what we’ve already seen of him to this point. It is always explained to us how Wilson, Fields, and Lance could come to surpass Jones one day in overall value as a quarterback, but nobody has seem to break it down for me why Jones doesn’t have the possibility to also get better over the next one to five to 10 years.
Consider the draft evaluation, floor, ceiling, rookie season, and career of Russell Wilson. He was the 75th overall pick because NFL teams and draft analysts believed that his college success wouldn’t translate to the pros because no quarterback under six feet had really done much in the league since Fran Tarkenton a few decades ago. Yes, there were some moments by Doug Flutie and Drew Brees is barely over six feet (though I think there is a noticeable difference when he stands next to Wilson) but realistically the only reason that Russell Wilson fell to 75 in 2012 is because the league had never seen a player like him before. Not since Tarkenton and most people can’t process that comparison other than maybe Pete Carroll and two other guys. So Wilson as a prospect, in my opinion, was significantly more intriguing and valuable than almost anybody in this draft now that we know that “lacks height” is actually not an indication of imminent failure. Aside from height, Wilson had nearly everything teams look for in a number one overall pick. Why? Because like Lawrence, he has both floor and ceiling. He’s got a stellar college track record at a big program, he seems to do a lot right and shouldn’t need a lot of time or coaching to become pro ready, and yet he also could just be glancing the surface of what he’s actually capable of. Wilson entered the NFL as a guy who would need less than half of one season to become a genuine above-average starter and that is so rare that we might only see it once or twice per decade. Wilson should have gone first or second in the 2012 draft, even with Andrew Luck there. I can’t possibly see the comparison between Wilson and any quarterback in this draft other than Lawrence. But I’d also rather have the guy who is closer to pro ready than the guy who is not, because I’d still have faith that he’d evolve and grow over the years, just as all the greats — including Wilson — have had to do.
You’ll hear or read a lot of people claim that they know how to tell if Justin Fields — or any other quarterback — is “going through his reads.” Some people will say that he only went to his second read seven times (this was Tony Pauline back in December). Others will say that he did that at least eight times against Clemson. But I’ll be the honest guy and tell you that I won’t be able to read a quarterback’s mind from watching the tape. That’s what you would have to do before you can say that a quarterback was truly going through his progressions or not. It can’t simply be that he looked to one spot and then threw to another — sometimes this is designed and the “second read” or the “third read” was faked the entire time. Watch this play by Fields against Clemson, a game in which he had six touchdown passes.
Ohio State has four receivers and a running back and former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan is breaking down the film below. I know ridiculously less about what I’m watching than O’Sullivan, I’ll admit that now, but I do not understand why he’s saying that Fields is going “1-2-3” in his reads on this play because every time I watch it … there is no “2.” Yes, Fields looks to his right, then looks to his left, then throws down the middle but the only thing that really makes sense to me is that Fields always meant to throw to the post for a touchdown. He looks to his left for the tight end #88 and that throw might be completed but it would only go for a handful of yards; Clemson is giving it to him if he wants it.
Then he looks to his left and O’Sullivan goes “1, no, 2 no..” but on the replay, there’s absolutely zero Ohio State receivers in that part of the field.
To me, it is a designed throw to the post from jump street and the looks are just part of the playbook. Throwing to one is pointless and there was nobody in the two spot and there was an extremely fast Ohio State receiver running the post — who else would the Buckeyes have meant to go to on that play other than him?
That was a larger point about people on Twitter saying that they “know how to count reads” or a quarterback going through his progressions, not just a question about Fields’ abilities to process the game as well as Jones. Nobody is arguing that there is a quarterback in this draft who can do that. Fields might turn out to be a good quarterback at the next level, but like anybody else, he can’t be forced into a situation that isn’t good for him. That’s where a lot of quarterbacks seem to end up going off track, teams that fall in love with a player instead of a player fit.
Jaelan Phillips is gaining ground as a candidate to be the first defensive player off of the board. He had seven sacks in only six games as a freshman at UCLA and eight sacks with 15.5 tackles for a loss in 10 games for Miami as a junior. That’s insane production for a college player. Given that there is no standout defensive player like in recent years (Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Bradley Chubb, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa) then Phillips becomes even more likely to be the first defensive player. And yes, all of those names are pass rushers and the only one who wasn’t the first defensive player off of the board was Chubb, who went after Denzel Ward. In fact, since 2013, Ward is the only non-defensive end to be the first defensive player drafted. Are we really going to see an inside linebacker like Micah Parsons go first among defensive players? It could be a cornerback like Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain II; back in 2012, DBs were the first two defensive players selected, with Morris Claiborne at six and Mark Barron at seven. And Kwity Paye, Jayson Oweh will only remind you that most pass rushing prospects don’t have sack numbers like Phillips. He has a concerning history with concussions and he temporarily retired. That makes him a risk but the first defensive player might not go until outside of the top six or seven anyway. Look out because he might also turn out to be the best player in the draft.
Reminder that as much as we all think the 2021 NFL Draft class will turn into the dreamboats we fantasize of, more than half turn into names like “Morris Claiborne” and “Mark Barron.” And those were actually not horrible picks.
My draft values on Horn, Surtain, and Caleb Farley have skyrocketed. Well, Farley’s went down for medical reasons, but cornerbacks should go earlier than receivers this year. The only exception is Ja’Marr Chase and he is an exception in all regards.
I believe there’s a greater chance of Rayshawn Slater going over Penei Sewell than most expect. I’d still say Sewell goes over him but sitting out a year is not nothing. I know I just complimented Chase and he sat out the year too, but I don’t think there is a close number two receiver to him. I do think Slater is close to Sewell as a prospect though and the tiebreaker could just be the fact that one played more recently. Consider the 2016 draft class though: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, Laremy Tunsil, and Taylor Decker all turned out good or great. And Tunsil went much later than expected, but he had extenuating circumstances that should give us all a moment to reflect before we pass career-defining judgments. The Dolphins got more value out of Tunsil at 13 than the Titans did out of Conklin at eight and that’s pretty much only because of the gas mask. Not that Conklin is bad, but he’s not with Tennessee anymore either and he didn’t return two firsts, a second, and a trade that turned that second first (initially third overall, but now sixth overall) into yet another first in 2023.
I don’t think that the Falcons will trade down and I think they’ll select Chase or Kyle Pitts.
I don’t think the Bengals will trade down, Zac Taylor can’t even get off to a bad start next season. He needs to sit there and beg for the best available player on the board, which may not even be an offensive player like everybody is saying. I’m not saying that Phillips will be the pick, but do consider that Cincinnati isn’t returning a single player who had more than two sacks last season. (They did sign Trey Hendrickson.) They have needs all over the field. They’re a bad team and while protecting Joe Burrow is important, it would be pretty wild if one of the worst teams in the NFL had a chance to take one of the elite weapons (Chase, Pitts) in favor for their 2021 starting right guard. Which I assume is where Sewell would play since they have Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff already. Phillips would get booed but again, he could be a productive pass rusher immediately. Actually, maybe the Bengals do entertain a trade down, but only 3-4 spots at most.
People will talk about how there are teams that “need quarterbacks” like the Broncos, Lions, Panthers, Bears, Patriots, Football Team, and Saints, but the quarterback carousel isn’t completely finished yet. Garoppolo will be traded, I think. Watson might be traded and teams could even weigh his potential availability in the months after the draft when deciding if they should select a quarterback in the first round or not. Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, Taylor Heinicke, Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Mullens could also become available. I’m not sure what the Saints’ plan is if they draft a quarterback in the first round. But the decision to draft a quarterback early isn’t just one to pick a player at that position, it’s also one to avoid a player at another position; a player who is statistically more likely to become a longtime starter on your team than a quarterback is.
There is no backup quarterback on the Bucs and I think Tampa Bay is a cool longshot bet to draft Trey Lance. I know that people think that 32 is too low to trade up for him but we have seen quarterbacks fall from “top-five prospects” to the 20s and it has happened quite a lot. The Bucs are already a championship quality team, they just need to get a body in there behind Brady who they’d like to pin some hopes on for the long-term outlook. Given the expectation to have a low first round pick in 2022, Tampa Bay should be even more likely to move up.
Lions aren’t taking a quarterback.
Panthers aren’t taking a quarterback. Both of these teams seem like “pick one on day two or consider trading back into the end of round one” on the quarterback front.
I don’t think that the Broncos can afford to pass up an immediate starter at another position for a project at quarterback who might not be a 2021 or 2022 upgrade to what Drew Lock can give you.
I could see the unusual 2020 college season and 2021 NFL Draft prep season leading to some unexpected picks and a higher percentage of sleepers and busts in the long term, but I don’t think that it will be as crazy as expected. Nothing ever is. Most of the good players are going to get drafted early, most of the late picks won’t amount to much in the NFL. But there are definitely going to be some late stage draft board risers this year given that many people seem to just now be catching up.