Seaside NFL Draft Thoughts, 4/25
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Seaside NFL Draft Thoughts, 4/25
NFL Draft Thoughts
I usually keep these stream of conscious threads in chronological order, but I’m slotting in a “top story” today because I’ve focused so much on Mac Jones. The reports on Sunday evening are that the 49ers are choosing between Jones and Trey Lance.
As you’re aware, I’ve been saying that the 49ers traded up for Jones since they traded up. I couldn’t fathom the case for it being Justin Fields. I mean, maybe it still is somehow and today was all part of some unexplainable rouse, but I have been 99-percent it is Jones since the deal happened. I give some room to Trey Lance as a possibility, but that also makes so little sense. Jones can take over the gig this season, therefore he can help the 49ers win this season, and then he can fight the “game manager” label for the next 15 years. Maybe there’s some small part of John Lynch that would fear passing on the next Mahomes for the next Carr, but Jones is far too pro ready and Lance is far too raw to feel bad about choosing the more proven and experienced option.
I have suspected for a while that Justin Fields would settle in as QB5 in this draft class and one thing this report does not do is help his case. If the perception is now that the top four quarterbacks are Lawrence-Wilson-Jones-Lance, then teams may believe there’s greater interest in the QB who doesn’t go to San Francisco. I just think Fields has to go to a place that works for him and that won’t press him into a starting situation until he appears ready and there aren’t any great fits at the top of the draft in that case. Fields falling into range of Sean Payton and the Saints would be beneficial to both parties. Lance falling into range of a team with a set starter already, like the Steelers or Colts, could also be better than some of the teams with more immediate QB needs.
There’s some rumors that the Falcons would be high on Trey Lance if Jones goes to the 49ers. I would think this is to put the bait out there for a team to trade up for Lance. But in order to facilitate a trade up, you have to have a belief that there is a lot of competition for said player, and I just don’t know if I see that happening for the number four QB in this draft, whoever it is. Either the Falcons did fall in love with Trey Lance or maybe they take a relatively cheap offer to move down a couple of spots because Atlanta does have a lot of needs.
Penei Sewell “overrated”? “I put the tape on expecting to see Jonathan Ogden or Joe Thomas or Walter Jones or Orlando Pace, and I didn’t see it,” one longtime scout said. “But he’s going high because there’s nobody else.”
Why is Tylan Wallace being overlooked? At least, why is Tylan Wallace being overlooked by me? Extraordinarily productive and I want to emphasize: Extra-Ordinarily. Wallace had 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns as a sophomore at Oklahoma State, then 903 yards in nine games as a junior and 922 yards in 10 games as a senior. Wallace tore his ACL in 2019, but to come back and average almost 100 yards per game, that sounds more like an “Adrian Peterson-type ACL” than a RGIII version.
Of course, being productive for the Cowboys isn’t extraordinary. Wallace is preceded in receiving yardage at OKState by James Washington, who is preceded by Josh Stewart, who is preceded by Justin Blackmon. There was also Tyron Johnson, an LSU transfer who went undrafted in 2019 and who surprisingly showed up some for the Chargers in 2020 with 20 catches for 398 yards on only 26 targets. However, Tyron Johnson ran a 4.36 at his pro day and while his other measurements don’t ‘pop’ there was at least unique size and speed and maybe that’s enough for a deep threat in LA. Tylan Wallace, however, is getting some first round buzz and it’s not for his pro day numbers: 4.48 is fine for a 40, but not great. His 112” broad jump is the second-worst in the wide receiver class this year. His 33” vertical is below-average. He’s 5’11, 194 lbs. There are players like this who succeed, like Robert Woods, but they are rare enough for me to be skeptical of a first round grade based on his athleticism and the fact that his production came in the Big 12. What about the highlights?
Impressive mid-air body control when he goes up for a catch. Seems his catch radius is much bigger than it has any business being. Seems to play faster than his timed speed and he reportedly has run as fast as 4.39. Reportedly. Hands seem good or great. Reports say he has a limited route tree and he does seem to be doing a lot of the same here. Some big chunks of yards also when he was uncovered, as previously alluded to with the Big 12. Not sure I see a first round receiver here but that doesn’t mean he won’t play like one. Drawn comps to Woods and Adam Thielen.
ESPN special on trading up in the draft:
GMs Chris Ballard, Brandon Beane, Eric DeCosta give insight into how and why they traded up for quarterbacks, or traded down in the case of the Colts. It seems like Steve Keim might not want to have discussed trading up for Josh Rosen. The former Jets GM isn’t around to talk about trading up for Sam Darnold.
Came across this video of Georgia DL Malik Herring. He is being projected as an undrafted free agent because he tore his ACL while preparing for the Senior Bowl. He could be a rotational player in 2022 or beyond.
Stanford offensive tackle Walker Little, one of the top players in the nation coming out of high school three years ago, looks a lot like Andrew Whitworth and he also played for current Rams offensive line coach Kevin Carberry. It seems like a natural fit for LA at 57, though it would eschew other needs for a player likely to sit all year.
Florida’s Stone Forsythe is the discount version of Little. They’re both massive, but Little is bigger and has longer arms and is an all-around better prospect. Both are decently athletic, but light.
What a rough thing to read for a college:
Maybe I just keep a running tally of cornerbacks with 32” arms? Nahshon Wright of Oregon State: Wright measured 6-foot-4 2/8 inches and 183 pounds with 9 1/8 inch hands, 32 7/8 inch arms and a 77 7/8 inch wingspan. He posted a 4.46 second 40-yard dash, 31 inch vertical jump, 10-feet, 6-inch broad jump, 4.57 second short shuttle, 7.24 second 3-cone drill and 6 repetitions on the bench press.
Think I need to learn more about Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard. Reminder to self: I’m a fan of RB Rhamondre Stevenson. I have some doubts based on Tylan Wallace playing at Oklahoma State and this does extend to Hubbard’s ridiculous production there over the last two years. Hubbard is currently viewed as a late day two, early day three prospect.
I found this site called PlayerProfile.com and it is a really convenient way to see a prospect’s measurables and athletic scores and comps.
Hubbard Highlights:
Did a write-up on Grant Stuard and Isaiah McDuffie, both late-round, UDFA linebackers. Stuard stands out as a player I almost guarantee will make a practice squad, and possibly a 53-man roster within the next two years. Crazy-high character. High-energy and effort. Don’t think the Seahawks have met with him, at least based on the names that Stuard has said of teams he’s met with. Doesn’t mean they aren’t interested.
Let’s dive into the draft’s top cornerbacks. Patrick Surtain, as described by Danny Kelly: “Surtain lines up both in press and off-coverage looks and has experience on both the defensive right and left sides (and while it’s not his forte, he got some reps over the slot too, and held his own). He is patient at the snap, avoids committing to opening his hips too early, and is balanced in his backpedal. He’s explosive in his click-and-close, changing direction in the blink of an eye to break on the ball or close on a receiver. Surtain shows awareness of assignments and is disciplined in passing off and picking up routes in and out his area. He knows how to use the sideline as leverage, and his combination of body control and length make it tough to drop passes in behind him on sideline throws. He looks for the ball in trail position. He uses his long arms to get his hands into passing lanes, and shows timing and body control to leap up and bat away passes. Surtain is a wrap-up tackler, and for a tall player, he knows how to get low at contact.”
Kelly on Jaycee Horn: “Horn tallied 23 passes defensed in three seasons at South Carolina, and he picked off two passes in 2020. Opposing quarterbacks avoided the junior corner for the most part last year―he averaged a national-best 27.4 converge snaps per catch allowed, surrendering just eight catches for 116 yards from 24 targets in seven games, per PFF. Horn is tough to shake in man coverage, showing twitchy agility and the ability to change direction with little wasted movement. He has no trouble “plastering” to his opponent when quarterbacks break the pocket. He played both on the outside and in the slot, and in off-coverage and press, and is not afraid to mix it up as a tackler.”
Kelly on Caleb Farley, the former top corner in the class who has fallen as of late: “The Hokies star has nimble feet and lightning-fast closing speed, is smooth in his transition from backpedal to trail position, and is fluid and effortless in his movement. He’s strong in press, and has no problem turning his hips and carrying receivers downfield. He’s also comfortable in half-turn technique, where he can keep his eyes on both the receiver and the quarterback. He shows good awareness of routes in zone coverages, with a knack for spacing. And he has excellent ball skills: He tracks the ball downfield and does a good job of swiping or raking the ball out of the receiver’s hands when the pass arrives. Farley opted out of the 2020 season but racked up 12 pass breakups and four picks in 11 games in 2019, earning first-team All ACC honors.”
Finally, let’s do Kelly on Greg Newsome: “Newsome got a handful of reps in the slot but primarily aligned on the outside. He plays in a low, balanced stance that helps him react quickly and change direction on a dime. He’s very reactive in coverage and regularly runs opposing receivers routes for them. He has a smooth backpedal and quick feet, and doesn’t lose any speed or balance when he flips his hips to run with opponents. He is a natural in half-turn technique, where he can keep his eyes in the backfield and get an early break on routes. And Newsome is very stingy deep; he gave up just one reception of 10-plus yards on 15 targets in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. He uses his length at the catch point and is adept positioning himself to get his hands on the ball to knock it down. He’s an aggressive, wrap-up tackler who’s not afraid to deliver a hit. Newsome played in a zone-heavy defense at Northwestern. He’s physical at the catch point—at times, a little too physical.”
It seems like right now there would be a slight gap between Surtain and Horn, a slight gap between Horn and Farley, then maybe Farley and Newsome aren’t separated by much, if anything. The group after that, including Tyson Campbell, Asante Samuel, Jr., Ifeatu Melifonwu, Paulson Adebo, and Benjamin St-Juste could be closely grouped together as far as Seattle’s needs tend to go.
I mentioned Ben Leber’s thoughts on the offensive line class on this blog a couple days ago. Here’s a breakdown on his number one OL of the 2021 draft…Alijah Vera-Tucker. Not Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater. Leber sees elite footwork in Vera-Tucker’s game and thinks he can play left tackle in the NFL.
Leber also says that Christian Darrisaw shouldn’t be a first round pick because he doesn’t give effort on every play and took time on a lot of plays to just “watch what was happening.” I love what Ben Leber is doing, let’s see what other videos he has on his channel.
Here’s Alex Leatherwood, a guy being rated as a day two pick but Leber likes him as one of the top tackles in this draft. Weaknesses: Can lose to speed rushers at times, doesn’t track as well in run blocking against faster linebackers. But Leatherwood is “savvy” and has “power and quickness” in his footwork.
Leber has to answer for “the most backlash of anything else” he has said this year, which is that Penei Sewell is only the second-best offensive lineman in this draft after Vera-Tucker. We know that there are some anonymous comments that Sewell is being “overrated” and that he’s “not the left tackle prospect that Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, and Jonathan Ogden” were. How many left tackles have been that highly rated in the last 20 years though? It’s hard when everyone is busy overrating quarterbacks. Leber isn’t saying that, he has him rated as the number two lineman…that’s high!
Oh good, I want to hear more about how Jaelan Phillips got his production. Let’s see what Leber has to say about the film.
Pros: Footwork, balance, plays with tempo and quickness and he finds a way to be disruptive, improves every game. Cons: Mostly a left defensive end, no versatility on tape, more punch in hands and arms, more lower body strength. Leber rates those weaknesses as “pretty minimal” though. I think he could really be the first defensive player taken. People would go crazy a little bit, but can you imagine the Broncos taking another pass rusher? Of course.
Here’s an argument from another YouTube channel on why Kadarius Toney is the best receiver in the draft. Why? “Footwork and route running.” Apparently the best of any receiver in the class according to Jackson Kreuger.
If I haven’t mentioned him much already, Kadarius Toney is 5’11, 193 lbs, ran a 4.39, 39.5” vertical, 11’4 broad jump. Same 40 as Rashod Bateman. Best broad jump of the year. Special athlete. Jackson Kreuger compares him to Antonio Brown. Toney had no production from 2017-2019, then had 70 catches for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.
Well, this is a first. NFL Trade Rumors from campus security.
Was thinking about the Chargers at 13 and the Vikings at 14 a moment ago. A lot of similar needs. I think the tipping point in this area of the draft comes down to the offensive line board. Are both Sewell and Slater gone after the Eagles pick at 12? Is Vera-Tucker a surprise early pick? Is Darrisaw gone or is he on the board and is he going to fall? The Chargers could be staring at Vera-Tucker when on the board at 13 and think “Trading down makes sense because people believe he’ll be available in the second half of the first round” but they could also be aware that the Vikings might love Vera-Tucker. Does LA see enough prospects on the board to justify not getting Vera-Tucker? Well, what would you do…the Chargers’ current left side is Trey Pipkins and Oday Aboushi. You think they’re going to move down and risk getting their second or third or even fourth choice of offensive lineman? I’m starting to doubt that Tom Telesco picks anything other than OL for Justin Herbert.
I’m watching this Cowboys draft video about the 4-2-5 defense and the increasing need for strong safeties in the NFL.
Some stuff I’m picking up in that Cowboys video: Micah Parsons doesn’t have “smooth enough” hips to play for the Cowboys based on their current need for a Rover/Outside Linebacker rather than an inside linebacker. He sees Keanu Neal as Dan Quinn’s Rover for next season. Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch can both stay on the field. A 4-2-5 essentially just replaces the third linebacker with a second strong safety. There’s good depth at this type of safety in this draft. Elijah Molden would be a good player in a 4-2-5. But should add 10 lbs. Good nickel player, not necessarily a Rover. A good Rover is 210-220 lbs. There’s a lot of those in this draft. All teams run a little bit of 4-2-5. Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn are both press corners. Dallas doesn’t have personnel for a 4-3. Quinn needs a good press corner and a defensive tackle. Jabril Cox would make a good Rover. Divine Deablo is a good Rover. Horn might be better for the Cowboys than Surtain, but he drafts Surtain in this case. (I don’t think 5 QBs are going in the top-nine though, so I don’t believe Surtain will actually be available. But then maybe Horn will be the pick for Dallas.)
Actually he really struggles to pick between Surtain and Horn. It’s great to hear how much he’s torn up over this decision.
Of course, the Seahawks are experienced in the 4-2-5 defense (and the area code) and they could actually have very similar draft needs to the Cowboys. At least, on defense. Cornerback and defensive tackle. Are Jordyn Brooks and Marquise Blair going to be able to join the starters next season?
“In order to be a free safety, you have to be a corner with good hands. Most free safeties are guys who were too slow to play cornerback.” I like this guy. Here he starts talking about the Legion of Boom (33:10):
He sees Cox as the top coverage linebacker in the draft. 4.38 speed. He takes Cox to be a future Rover for the Dallas defense. Cox could have a lot of potential destinations in this draft. Here’s his video on Milton Williams. I’m high on Williams for sure. So is this guy. Williams must have added 50-60 lbs in college, lots of muscle, and he will have more athleticism and technique and versatility than most day two picks.
I love getting into people’s draft sleepers. Here is another YouTuber and he kicks things off with a player I was watching earlier today and am also really high on: UNC RB Michael Carter. I think Carter has better, more unique traits than his more highly-rated teammate Javonte Williams. I am basing that on limited viewing of both though, so there’s more study left to be done there.
But I think Carter has such exceptional vision and change of direction and has a high ceiling as a receiver.
His next player is Tulane DL Cam Sample. 5-tech, but fits in a 4-3. Works best as a 3-4 DE to use his athleticism to his advantage. Not a 3-tech. Could have an immediate impact. Might be a fit for the LA Rams.
Next: Washington CB Keith Taylor. Good technique. Quick hips. Consistent. One of the better press corners in the draft. No interceptions. Poor tackling.
Next: Virginia Tech S Divine Deablo. We’ve been talking about him already. He’s the big safety, the hybrid-linebacker, 230 lbs, length, ball-hawk. Potential day three pick. Reminder that Kam Chancellor was a special teamer as a rookie. And that he is one of the most unique players in NFL history.
Next: Virginia Edge Charles Snowden. Extremely lanky. Not a 4-3 DE. Not big enough. Can’t set the edge but can explode off of the edge. Moves well in space for his size. 6’7, 240 lbs.
Indiana S Jamar Johnson. Been mentioned here a few times. Not “Earl Thomas,” as in not an amazing athlete. Can’t take away a huge part of the field. Comfortable because of his instincts. Can come up in the box and tackle. Fake blitzes. Versatile.
Florida State DT Marvin Wilson. Had a lackluster 2020. Not a strong class, but Wilson had potential to be best among them.
Illinois WR Josh Imatorbhebhe. Deep threat for late in the draft. Great athlete, good hands, one-trick deep threat.
Okay, I better post this NFL Draft Thoughts for 4/25 while it is still 4/25. And wow, we even had a 4-2-5 theme today for the 425 area code.