Click here for thoughts on the first 16 picks.
NFL Draft Thoughts
Very unpopular opinion, I think the Raiders (17) could get the fifth-best QB in this class or Trey Lance with their second round pick. LV has two third rounders and they’re in the middle of round two, I wonder if Grayock would trade back into the first round to select Lance. At pick 17, I think they have to make a run at whoever their favorite defensive player is and that’s impossible to guess with the Raiders. Look for someone being graded as a second rounder maybe…Daviyon Nixon? Milton Williams?
The Dolphins (18) have used two first rounders on defense and two first rounders on offense over the last two years. If you expect the first pick to be offense, as everyone does, then I think a fast linebacker or an edge player would be sensible for the second choice. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah would be the likely suspect if he’s on the board, and that makes sense, but Zaven Collins is apparently skyrocketing and Miami might not be able to get him in the second round.
As soon as Washington Football Team (19) couldn’t Washington Trade Up to three, I think they officially left the first round QB market. Yet another team that could use a linebacker. I wonder if the number of linebackers in the first round is higher than believed. Would Baron Browning make it into the first? I think he is one who could. Not sure that there is an offensive player at 19 who will bring as high of a value as a defensive player, even if Washington has picked a front-seven player in each of the last four first rounds.
The Chicago Bears (20) are not setup well on offense to support either Trey Lance or Justin Fields at quarterback. Maybe not well enough for any of the rookie quarterbacks. The right side of the offensive line is terrible. The weapons are underwhelming. The defense isn’t elite enough to carry a rookie quarterback to the playoffs. But the Bears might feel like they can go broke for a quarterback to appease all the fans and get away with a risk like that. But Teven Jenkins and Greg Newsome and Trevon Moehrig and Rashod Bateman and Kadarius Toney could all be the one board too, plus more.
Colts (21) GM Chris Ballard praised the offensive tackles in this draft and that could mean that Indianapolis picks the best one at 21 (Maybe Jenkins, Alex Leatherwood, Sam Cosmi, Walker Little, Liam Eichenberg) or they trade up for one or they trade down and wait on one. Most likely scenario is the trade down. Really difficult to justify trading a conditional first rounder for Carson Wentz without building the offensive line and only backing up left tackle Sam Tevi with Julie’n Davenport. And yet the weaknesses on defense are probably being overlooked during everyone’s focus on the weakness at tackle.
Like most teams, the talk surrounding the Titans (22) is whether or not GM John Robinson will make a trade. Robinson said that they’ve talked through the potential trade up targets. Who could those prospects be? Almost 200 targets left the team this year between Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries. Josh Reynolds is not a number two. Titans probably have Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Elijah Moore on a board and each has a number and if that receiver falls to that point of the draft, they try to make a trade. Tennessee has two third round picks. Maybe they could jump to 14 with picks 22, 53, and 100.
I talked about the Jets (23) in part one. If the Vikings dropped from 14 to 22, for example, surely they could target one of the tackles (Cosmi) or one of the edge rushers (Jayson Oweh, Jaelan Phillips, Azeez Ojulari, or whatever).
All the talk is that the Steelers (24) will draft Najee Harris and that seems like a very Pittsburgh move, so why not? I wonder if Harris or Travis Etienne could go much earlier than expected. Or maybe no first round running backs. There would be a lot of other positions that make sense for Pittsburgh too. Maybe Creed Humphrey or Landon Dickerson.
I mentioned the Jaguars (25) second pick on part one. I think they could trade up, but they almost might just trade up from 33.
Maybe another team that would like to trade up for a linebacker is the Browns (26) and despite how long they’ve been bad, they do have a lot of experience picking in the latter third of the first round. Cleveland also has two third round picks, so I’m thinking they can jump up for JOK.
The Baltimore Ravens (27) are on the clock for the first of two times here. I mentioned them as a sleeper for a quarterback. That’s not because I believe that they want to move away from Lamar Jackson. Just look at their situation: the backup is Trace McSorley. The starter takes a lot of hits. Baltimore ran into some issues when Jackson got hurt last year. It’s a concerning style of football. And they can’t just expect to turn the reins of that niche offense over to anyone and hope it goes well. This is where some Davis Mills first round buzz could make a little of sense. That’s not nearly as hot of a Ravens take as this one though: They might not draft a wide receiver. I don’t think that Baltimore’s passing problem is centrally located at wide receiver. As I said, this is a niche offense. It’s not like the Ravens could just trade for Julio Jones and then have a “1,400 yard receiver.” They haven’t proven capable of passing the ball like that. I think they’re fine with Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Devin Duverney. I really don’t think wide receiver is going to be the priority. I would lean towards edge rusher, offensive tackle, and I think they probably want to trade down from 31. They won’t have another pick for a long while after that.
Rumors would say that the Saints (28) might go up and get a cornerback. Maybe stay at 28 and take a defensive tackle or even a tight end, if they dare. Odd situation for the Saints as there’s suddenly a lot more desperate needs without Drew Brees in the house.
In a perfect world the Packers (29) would draft another quarterback. I don’t underestimate Green Bay’s propensity to add a mauler for the offensive line. I imagine that Quinn Meinerz, local mauler, is a consideration. Even in the first round. But maybe more like Teven Jenkins. I think a lot of teams will favor the second and third rounds for wide receivers.
The talk is about the Bills (30) trading up for a running back, which falls in line with the fact that Buffalo’s done a good job of trolling the internet on their social media posts. But one of the top backs in this draft could do great things for Josh Allen next season. The Bills aren’t playing this draft for 2022 or 2023. They’re closing in on a Super Bowl run and they’ll want a player who they think can help them do that in the same way that Antoine Winfield Jr and Tristan Wirfs did for the Bucs in 2020. Najee Harris or Travis Etienne or Javonte Williams or Michael Carter … I don’t know, it’s possible any of them could be a target. There’s just nothing about Buffalo’s current backs that matches the level of what a team will find in the first two or three backs in this draft.
Ravens (31) gotta be looking to trade down.
I would hardly say that the Bucs (32) have no needs. For a long time I said I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a QB. Now I think I would be. I really can’t imagine taking the sixth or seventh-best QB in a draft in the first round. Now, I do suspect that Trey Lance and/or Justin Fields could fall into their range and maybe that’s a different story. But I don’t know that Tampa can do a luxury pick. Chris Godwin is on the franchise tag and a lot of issues are solved if they have a natural replacement for him in 2022. It’s a strong enough wide receiver class to expect the sixth or seventh receiver off the board to be pretty good. Someone like Kadarius Toney or Terrace Marshall or Dyami Brown checks out. And trading up for getting one of their top-four choices is a possibility.
Meant to post this earlier. Still got it in on Tuesday.