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NFL Mock Draft Thoughts
First I’ll post the first round, with no explanations. Then below that I’ll write in a few notes about why I did what I did. Keep this in mind first: I don’t necessarily make every move because I expect it to happen. Some of these moves are things I don’t expect, reason being that I believe you have an advantage when you throw wrenches in because then you’re prepared for fallout to the surprises. I’ll explain what moves I did that I don’t necessarily expect, but if they happened, I could reason out what the motivation for that move would be.
This is not my “final mock draft,” this is just an opportunity to test some scenarios out before Thursday.
1 - Jags - Trevor Lawrence, QB
2 - Jets - Zach Wilson, QB
3 - 49ers - Mac Jones, QB
4 - Cowboys - Kyle Pitts, TE (trade w ATL)
5 - Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase, WR
6 - Dolphins - DeVonta Smith, WR
7 - Broncos - Micah Parsons, LB (trade w DET)
8 - Panthers - Jaylen Waddle, WR
9 - Chargers - Penei Sewell, OT (trade w DET)
10 - Falcons - Patrick Surtain, CB (traded down)
11 - Patriots - Jaycee Horn, CB (trade w NYG)
12 - Eagles - Trey Lance, QB
13 - Lions - Rashawn Slater, OT (traded down twice)
14 - Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT
15 - Giants - Jaelan Phillips, EDGE (traded down)
16 - Cardinals - Caleb Farley, CB
17 - Raiders - Walker Little, OT
18 - Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB
19 - Football Team - Najee Harris, RB
20 - Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OT
21 - Browns - Christian Barmore, DT (trade w TEN)
22 - Titans - Elijah Moore, WR
23 - Jets - Greg Newsome, CB
24 - Steelers - Justin Fields, QB
25 - Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S
26 - Colts - Rashod Bateman, WR (traded down)
27 - Ravens - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE
28 - Saints - Dyami Brown, WR
29 - Packers - Kadarius Toney, WR
30 - Jets - Liam Eichenberg, OT (trade w BUF)
31 - Ravens - Alex Leatherwood, OT
32 - Bengals - Dillon Radunz, OT (trade w TB)
EXPLANATIONS
1 - Jags - Trevor Lawrence, QB
2 - Jets - Zach Wilson, QB
3 - 49ers - Mac Jones, QB
4 - Cowboys - Kyle Pitts, TE (trade w ATL)
I can’t help but think the Falcons will trade down. They’re just waiting to be on the clock. I know everyone is saying that the draft begins at four, but can every GM be absolutely positive that Lawrence-Wilson-Jones is the top three? The price goes up on draft night.
I would be surprised if it was Dallas, but then I reasoned out that the Dolphins are happy at six. If they only had two players they desperately wanted, they wouldn’t have moved up to six. They might not even have traded down at all. So I scratched out Miami this time. The next team that made sense to me to move up was the Cowboys, so maybe Jerry Jones sees an opportunity to supercharge the offense and goes for it. The price might not be nearly as steep as what Kyle Shanahan paid.
(Pre-emptive Field Yates-type tweet) Cowboys offense if they did this: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Kyle Pitts, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La’el Collins, Tyler Biadasz, Connor Williams, Dalton Schultz.
5 - Bengals - Ja’Marr Chase, WR
6 - Dolphins - DeVonta Smith, WR
I don’t think that Smith will go over Waddle but then again, things will happen that people aren’t expecting. If you consider that Miami is the team drafting, then you know that Tua Tagovailoa’s opinion on receiver between Waddle and Smith is probably the one that matters the most. So if Tua says that his favorite player to throw to was DeVonta Smith, then I imagine that Brian Flores will take that into consideration. Jaylen Waddle didn’t win the Heisman … though if he had played the full season, maybe he would have?
7 - Broncos - Micah Parsons, LB (trade w DET)
Not buying a Parsons slide. There are too many teams desperate for insane speed in the middle of their defense. Trading for Teddy Bridgewater guarantees for me that the Broncos will look at quarterback in round two or three.
8 - Panthers - Jaylen Waddle, WR
Tried to find a trade partner for Carolina, couldn’t do it. Help Sam Darnold in ways the Jets never did.
9 - Chargers - Penei Sewell, OT (trade w DET)
If Sewell falls out of the top-eight like this, Tom Telesco almost has to do it. The Lions managed to trade down twice in my mock draft, which is a dream scenario for Brad Holmes too. All Detroit wants to do this year is stock up capital for 2022 and 2023. Holmes traded for Jared Goff because he knows that even if Goff is not spectacular, he’s a dependable bridge quarterback for at least two more years. Think of Jared Goff like Matt Cassel after the Patriots. He might be alright but most of all he’ll be healthy and not the worst. Not yet. If the Lions had a top-three pick, they’d pick a quarterback, but since they don’t, they’re just gearing up to have a great offense in 2022 and 2023 for whichever QB they select in the future.
10 - Falcons - Patrick Surtain, CB (traded down)
Atlanta will get all the good grades if they trade down, add a 2022 first round pick, and still get some people’s highest-rated defensive player at 10.
11 - Patriots - Jaycee Horn, CB (trade w NYG)
People scream over two quarterbacks falling out of the top-ten and then their prayers are answered when New England — salivating over Justin Fields — selects… a cornerback. But that’s what the Patriots need and that’s why they’re trading over the Eagles to get one. There’s a big drop off after the top-two. Yes, Dave Gettleman trades down, because as I surveyed the board, he’s got plenty of options at 15. I just don’t think Gettleman wants to move that far down and that’s why any team wanting a QB that’s in the 20s won’t be able to convince New York to slide down that far.
12 - Eagles - Trey Lance, QB
What an Eagles thing to do. I sincerely believe that Jalen Hurts would be the starter from day one and without a true competition. Lance can’t play in the NFL this year. The top two quarterbacks on the roster are Hurts and Joe Flacco and that’s not changing.
Philadelphia really would feel like, here’s a better developmental QB in 2021 than we’ll find at our draft position in 2022. If Lance went back to school and played as well as some people believe he would, then he might be the number one pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. So for the Eagles, that’s how they’d see this move. He’d be in the minor leagues, practically, so Jalen Hurts can feel like, “Listen, you have no competition. Pretend Trey Lance isn’t here. Flacco is your backup. Just go do your thing and if you’re the guy, then you’re the guy.”
We know that the Eagles always draft quarterbacks, even when they don’t need one, because they see QBs as Non-Fungible Tokens, basically. That’s how Hurts got drafted, right? So this is a perfectly acceptable mock draft move for the Eagles, a team that needs a lot less than you think.
13 - Lions - Rashawn Slater, OT (traded down twice)
All the “wow wow wow” tweets for Brad Holmes, trading down twice and still getting some people’s top-rated offensive tackle in this draft.
14 - Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT
15 - Giants - Jaelan Phillips, EDGE (traded down)
16 - Cardinals - Caleb Farley, CB
Well, Arizona didn’t worry about medicals on Byron Murphy, right? Not really a pick I expect, and that’s where I’ll leave it. Is it a need? Yes. Is he a good prospect? Yes.
17 - Raiders - Walker Little, OT
I think Walker Little might be a third round pick, so there you go, he’s a Raider.
18 - Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB
Maybe not high enough for Zaven Collins.
19 - Football Team - Najee Harris, RB
“In your face, analytics.” - Ron Rivera.
20 - Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OT
Chicago isn’t a quarterback away from the Super Bowl unless that quarterback is really special. What are the odds that the number five QB in a draft is so special that he’d help take you to the playoffs as a rookie? The Bears have plenty of needs and I think they’ll either trade up high for a QB, or wait until round two.
21 - Browns - Christian Barmore, DT (trade w TEN)
Easy choice for me to see Cleveland moving up to get better on defense.
22 - Titans - Elijah Moore, WR
23 - Jets - Greg Newsome, CB
24 - Steelers - Justin Fields, QB
There you go. I looked around for a bit to see if there were any teams I felt would be compelled to trade up for Fields here and didn’t think there were. I don’t believe that the Saints, Packers, or any teams at the top of round two would blow Pittsburgh away with an offer right here. So then I thought about the Steelers and Fields and it made a lot of sense. He needs to sit for the whole season, maybe two seasons. Mike Tomlin is a good mentor for him. The Steelers know how to play to the strengths of their players and could have an explosive attack in 2022 or 2023 if all went right in his development.
25 - Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S
26 - Colts - Rashod Bateman, WR (traded down)
27 - Ravens - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE
28 - Saints - Dyami Brown, WR
29 - Packers - Kadarius Toney, WR
A run on receivers near the end of the first round.
30 - Jets - Liam Eichenberg, OT (trade w BUF)
31 - Ravens - Alex Leatherwood, OT
No receivers for Baltimore, they do have other needs. Also, Alex Leatherwood is such a “Ravens name” to me.
32 - Bengals - Dillon Radunz, OT (trade w TB)
A run on tackles to end the first round and Cincy makes too much sense to want to move up for one.
I’ll add a second round soon.