Shane Waldron is coaching for his job

Seaside Joe 1298, 9/24/2022: Why the Seahawks will probably make an offensive coordinator change after or during the season

First off, let’s talk about the instability of any offensive or defensive coordinator job. Darrell Bevell pulled off a minor miracle by keeping the OC gig under Pete Carroll for seven years, but longevity in that role is both a blessing and a red flag.

Bevell, now Tua Tagovailoa’s passing game coordinator in Miami (the Dolphins QB threw six touchdowns against the Ravens last week), was an offensive coordinator in the NFL every year between 2006 and 2021 with the exception of 2018. Not even Pete Carmichael, Jr., the longtime Saints offensive coordinator, can claim the same amount of longevity yet.

But complaints that the Seahawks were not keeping up with the league’s other aerial attacks despite a Pro Bowl passer led to Bevell being fired after Seattle ranked 18th and 11th in scoring over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, respectively. It’s at that point that Brian Schottenheimer stepped into the role, himself a coordinator over 12 combined seasons with the Jets, Rams, and Seahawks.

And also a coach who was fired by Carroll for not letting Russ…you know. Or he was fired because he let Russ…you know. Well, whatever the case, Schottenheimer was let go after three seasons in which the Seahawks ranked sixth, ninth, and eighth in scoring, but also 18, eighth, and 17th in total yards.

Oh how we will reminisce about the Bevell and Schottenheimer seasons being “better days” once we finally lay the 2022 campaign to rest.

Though the entire cause can basically be attributed to trading Russell Wilson and waiting a year to find an adequate replacement, the Seahawks currently rank 29th in scoring and 31st in total yards. It’s one thing if Seattle can’t pass the ball effectively with Geno Smith at quarterback. It’s another—and entirely more concerning issue to Carroll—if the Seahawks struggle to run the ball effectively.

This also can’t be blamed entirely on Shane Waldron, Carroll’s “Russell Wilson-inspired hire” in 2020, as Seattle’s offensive line figures to at least be one of the worst run-blocking units in the NFL, if not bottom-five overall.

NFL Rumors @nflrums

As #Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron prepares to call plays for the first time, he has yet to decide whether to be on the field or in the booth. #Seattle #NFL

Who cares about blame though? This is about results. And it is also about whoever that quarterback replacement is in 2023.

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As I said in the beginning, coordinator roles rotate like a pig on a spit. This year, there are 14 official new offensive coordinators in the NFL—basically half of the league. That doesn’t necessarily account for all the split coordinator roles that are so popular these days, Seattle being an example of that with Andy Dickerson coordinating the run game.

The longest-tenured OCs now are Carmichael (2009), Kyle Shanahan (2017), and Eric Bieniemy (2018). That’s right, all but three coordinators were hired since 2019 and only one is older than 2017.

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It would be more surprising if Shane Waldron remained the Seahawks OC in 2023 than if Seattle went in another direction.

Though it should come as little surprise, most teams do have new offensive coordinators when they draft a quarterback early. This is partly due to the fact that teams that draft quarterbacks might be coming off of seasons so bad that they fired the head coach and the entire staff, not just the OC. These are all first and second round quarterbacks:

2022

Steelers-Kenny Pickett (no changes)

2021

Jaguars-Trevor Lawrence (new HC, OC)

Jets-Zach Wilson (new HC, new OC)

49ers-Trey Lance (Mike McDaniel promoted to OC, new pass game coordinator)

Bears-Justin Fields (no changes)

Patriots-Mac Jones (no changes)

Bucs-Kyle Trask (no changes)

Chicago fired Matt Nagy’s staff after the 2021 season. New England lost OC Josh McDaniels to the Raiders after the season. Tampa Bay selected Trask as a shot in the dark to succeed Tom Brady and Bruce Arians stepped away from the team after the season. Lawrence’s first OC was Darrell Bevell. Wilson’s first OC is Mike LaFleur, the person who was Shanahan’s pass game coordinator in 2020.

2020

Bengals-Joe Burrow (no changes)

Dolphins-Tua Tagovailoa (new OC)

Chargers-Justin Herbert (new OC)

Packers-Jordan Love (no changes)

Eagles-Jalen Hurts (new OC)

The Bengals were only one year into Zac Taylor’s tenure, so there were no firings for having the worst record. Love was another shot in the dark succession plan. But Miami, LA, and Philadelphia had all fired their offensive coordinators prior to drafting quarterbacks.

2019

Cardinals-Kyler Murray (new HC, new OC)

Giants-Daniel Jones (no changes)

Commanders-Dwayne Haskins (new OC)

Broncos-Drew Lock (new HC, new OC)

New York would fire Pat Shurmur’s staff after one season of Daniel Jones. The other three all had new offensive gameplans and needed new quarterbacks.

2018

Browns-Baker Mayfield (new OC)

Jets-Sam Darnold (new OC)

Bills-Josh Allen (new OC)

Cardinals-Josh Rosen (new HC, new OC)

Ravens-Lamar Jackson (no changes)

Cleveland, New York, and Buffalo all went in new offensive coordinator directions, even though they retained their head coaches. Soon, Hue Jackson and Todd Bowles would be fired, as was Arizona’s Steve Wilks.

2017

Bears-Mitch Trubisky (no changes)

Chiefs-Patrick Mahomes (new OC)

Texans-Deshaun Watson (new OC)

Browns-Deshone Kizer (no changes)

Yes, Andy Reid and Bill O’Brien had new coordinators when they traded up for those quarterbacks. The Bears fired John Fox’s staff after the 2017 season. Hue Jackson survived a 1-31 start to being Cleveland’s head coach and they let him be there to draft Baker Mayfield. What a crazy stupid organization.

2016

Rams-Jared Goff (kind of a new OC)

Eagles-Carson Wentz (new HC, new OC)

Broncos-Paxton Lynch (no changes)

Jets-Christian Hackenberg (no changes)

The Rams fired Frank Cignetti, the 2015 OC, midway through the season. They retained Rob Boras, the person who replaced Cignetti, but then Jeff Fisher’s entire staff was replaced by Sean McVay’s in 2017. Lynch was another shot in the dark. The Jets fired OC Chan Gailey after one season, though he can’t be blamed for picking Hackenberg.

But notice how teams are not patient if their quarterback selection isn’t working immediately?

2015

Bucs-Jameis Winston (new OC)

Titans-Marcus Mariota (no changes)

Tennessee fired Ken Whisenhunt and his staff after one season with Mariota. Tampa Bay fired Love Smith and his staff after one season with Winston.

2014

Jaguars-Blake Bortles (no changes)

Browns-Johnny Manziel (new HC, new OC)

Vikings-Teddy Bridgewater (new HC, new OC)

Raiders-Derek Carr (no changes)

Patriots-Jimmy Garoppolo (no changes)

That’s right, the Raiders fired Dennis Allen four games into Carr’s career. Jacksonville didn’t fire Gus Bradley, but did replace the OC after one season of Bortles. Garoppolo was another succession plan. The Seahawks are not drafting a succession plan though, so those picks don’t really matter to us for this specific exercise.

Let’s count them up:

• 35 QBs drafted in first two rounds from 2014-2021 (three were really direct in being projects behind established starters: Trask, Love, Garoppolo)

• Out of the other 32, seven were going to teams that had fired their head coach, and TWENTY total went to teams that had new offensive coordinators. Of the remaining 12, a total of TEN fired the offensive coordinator within a year of the pick!

There’s a mountain of challenges standing between Shane Waldron and Seattle’s offensive coordinator job in 2023, but an entire universe of odds working against him to be with the Seahawks in 2024. The same could be said of Pete Carroll: Maybe his job is safe for next year because Seattle knew what to expect when they traded Wilson and current owner Jody Allen may not feel the need to rock the boat before a potential Seahawks sale.

However, if the Seahawks do poorly in 2022, then don’t show marked improvement in 2023, there won’t be much room for excuses just because Seattle was going to a rookie quarterback: Pete Carroll went through that in 2012 and came out with an 11-5 record.

But that’s for Pete to figure out and worry about in 2023. The bigger issue for any Seahawks coach right now is how Waldron plans to get points on the board on Sunday against the Falcons, then continue to do so week after week with inefficient starters at a lot of key positions. Whether he was setup to fail or not, the equation doesn’t get any more forgiving.