Great breakdown of the layers of contenders, though I would put the Jags in level 2 over the Dolphins. Having an easier path in their division is part of it, but I also see Lawrence as far more reliable under Pederson than Tua under McDaniel.
I believe it is actually really simple. IF Seattle can improve allot in stopping the run and get improved play at the Nickel corner they have a good shot to actually make a run at it - IMHO - I believe the rest has been improved.
Prophetic utterance of the 6. Hmmm. Anything this time of year is hard to say. I agree with Parallax that there are so many if's and buts that certainty is at best, uncertain. Injuries, coaching, weather factors in games. Legal and disciplinary actions in the modern NFL can also be a game changer. Depth of roster is a given in a 17 game season.
Draft picks although great on paper have to play the game to really give a creditable analysis. Even camp and preseason can be misleading. Heck it wasn't so long ago Arizona went 8-0 and were ready to see their crown awarded until the next 9 weeks happened.
Ask yourself this. Why in the past were the Patriots and now present KC always knocking on the playoff door? Two reasons I think. A partnership between the coaching and the QB. There were years KC and the Patriots didn't have the best weapons on either side of the ball but made it to the party.
That may sound simplistic but count the SB appearances and find the common denominator of those teams.
It ain't what you got it knowing how to use it to it's greatest effect.
Can Seattle be part of the super six? Sure, but so many things have to fall into place over the course of the season. It's a one game at a time deal or as Pete would say, "Every game is a championship opportunity. "
As far as optimism; I feel better this year than I have in a long time with the team as a whole. But until the ingredient are mixed and the oven on , and the timer set and the cooking process begun, it could be 5 star, or it could be Jack N the Box. I'll lean toward 5 star with a caveat.
The NFL has a good week-to-week balance, where it does at least feel like any team can beat any other team (within reason). This extends into Super Wild Card Weekend (still a dumbass name), and even into the Divisional Round (also still a dumbass name). But it's like in any sport, once you're at the sharpest of the sharp end, there will only ever be a very few teams capable of taking the title.
I follow the NHL. Game-to-game any team can win any match against anyone, that's the nature of the sport. But we all know it's a subset of teams that have playoff capability. Of those it's a subset again that have a real shot at the Cup. NHL has a slight advantage that each game is somewhat more open and free slowing and chaotic than the highly structured and methodical NFL. Actually that final statement applies to nigh on all sports over the NHL.
But also, does any of that matter? On Saturday, La Rochelle won back-to-back Champions Cups and were in their third straight. Leinster are also considered a dominant team at that level, and only maybe two other squads across Europe were really thought about as final worthy. So we all got to enjoy an all-time great game of rugby, which came off the back of two strong semis, and a whole competition of quality sport. As long as in the moment of the game I feel like anything could happen it'll keep my attention and interest (this is why i really struggle to get into baseball, it's a real slog to watch even the best games).
Yeah, Chiefs/Bills/Bengals/Eagles could be odds-on favourites. But, as long as the 49ers/Jags/'Hawks can push them into a one-score 4th Qtr game, i won't care and will keep loving the sport.
I think the Bills' window has closed and that the only "real" contenders in the AFC are the Chiefs and Bengals. The Jaguars are the AFC team most likely to sweep their own division and I think they're just as "real" of a contender as the Bills or any non-Philly NFC team. Philly is the only "real" contender in the NFC. I can't think of six. I can only come up with three (Chiefs, Bengals and Eagles). I'd still bet on those three over the field. I'd have 10 teams in my level two that would make interesting bets and then assume a bet on anyone else is just throwing money away. I doubt this is that different from other professional sports leagues. Is it that much more difficult for a well-informed fan to predict the top five, followed by the next tier of 10ish teams, that have a legitimate shot at the championship in other sports? Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not a well-informed fan in any other leagues.
If "top 6" means picking three teams from the NFC, then it is possible that the Seahawks make it into that group. Eagles, and then who?
The Niners have a brutal schedule this year (worse than the Seahawks) and I see them as the team most likely to underperform the preseason expectations.
The Lions had a great draft in terms of players that can make an immediate impact, and would be contenders as the team that comes "out of nowhere" to contend for the NFC.
Dallas is a team with question marks all over it--they could be very good or very meh. The Giants likely have an edge in the NFC East but are not that scary, either.
Carolina has Young but will likely be a year away from serious contention.
If the Seahawks really do have a "top 5" (NFL) offense and their D makes a step up to "average" then... "why not us?"
I don't at this point perceive the Seahawks to be the kind of powerhouse that has a good chance to reach, let alone win, the Superbowl. To prove me wrong, we'd need to see a far better run defense and a real ability to apply pressure to quarterbacks. If those two changes manifest, I could change my mind, though we'd still need to see Geno Smith perform at least a standard deviation more effectively than last season, although that performance was probably a couple of standard deviations above what most anyone (other than Geno's mom) expected.
Maybe we'll get a breakout season from Mafe. Or maybe Hall will prove to be a monster. I think there's a good chance our starting corners will lock down both sides of the field pretty well, leaving only the slot and the run game. That alone could go a long way toward helping Mafe and/or Hall to break out. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Great breakdown of the layers of contenders, though I would put the Jags in level 2 over the Dolphins. Having an easier path in their division is part of it, but I also see Lawrence as far more reliable under Pederson than Tua under McDaniel.
Every year my sons ask me , "who's going to the SB " and I always tell
them " You tell me who gets injured and for how long" and I'll tell you my best guest!
I believe it is actually really simple. IF Seattle can improve allot in stopping the run and get improved play at the Nickel corner they have a good shot to actually make a run at it - IMHO - I believe the rest has been improved.
Prophetic utterance of the 6. Hmmm. Anything this time of year is hard to say. I agree with Parallax that there are so many if's and buts that certainty is at best, uncertain. Injuries, coaching, weather factors in games. Legal and disciplinary actions in the modern NFL can also be a game changer. Depth of roster is a given in a 17 game season.
Draft picks although great on paper have to play the game to really give a creditable analysis. Even camp and preseason can be misleading. Heck it wasn't so long ago Arizona went 8-0 and were ready to see their crown awarded until the next 9 weeks happened.
Ask yourself this. Why in the past were the Patriots and now present KC always knocking on the playoff door? Two reasons I think. A partnership between the coaching and the QB. There were years KC and the Patriots didn't have the best weapons on either side of the ball but made it to the party.
That may sound simplistic but count the SB appearances and find the common denominator of those teams.
It ain't what you got it knowing how to use it to it's greatest effect.
Can Seattle be part of the super six? Sure, but so many things have to fall into place over the course of the season. It's a one game at a time deal or as Pete would say, "Every game is a championship opportunity. "
As far as optimism; I feel better this year than I have in a long time with the team as a whole. But until the ingredient are mixed and the oven on , and the timer set and the cooking process begun, it could be 5 star, or it could be Jack N the Box. I'll lean toward 5 star with a caveat.
The NFL has a good week-to-week balance, where it does at least feel like any team can beat any other team (within reason). This extends into Super Wild Card Weekend (still a dumbass name), and even into the Divisional Round (also still a dumbass name). But it's like in any sport, once you're at the sharpest of the sharp end, there will only ever be a very few teams capable of taking the title.
I follow the NHL. Game-to-game any team can win any match against anyone, that's the nature of the sport. But we all know it's a subset of teams that have playoff capability. Of those it's a subset again that have a real shot at the Cup. NHL has a slight advantage that each game is somewhat more open and free slowing and chaotic than the highly structured and methodical NFL. Actually that final statement applies to nigh on all sports over the NHL.
But also, does any of that matter? On Saturday, La Rochelle won back-to-back Champions Cups and were in their third straight. Leinster are also considered a dominant team at that level, and only maybe two other squads across Europe were really thought about as final worthy. So we all got to enjoy an all-time great game of rugby, which came off the back of two strong semis, and a whole competition of quality sport. As long as in the moment of the game I feel like anything could happen it'll keep my attention and interest (this is why i really struggle to get into baseball, it's a real slog to watch even the best games).
Yeah, Chiefs/Bills/Bengals/Eagles could be odds-on favourites. But, as long as the 49ers/Jags/'Hawks can push them into a one-score 4th Qtr game, i won't care and will keep loving the sport.
I think the Bills' window has closed and that the only "real" contenders in the AFC are the Chiefs and Bengals. The Jaguars are the AFC team most likely to sweep their own division and I think they're just as "real" of a contender as the Bills or any non-Philly NFC team. Philly is the only "real" contender in the NFC. I can't think of six. I can only come up with three (Chiefs, Bengals and Eagles). I'd still bet on those three over the field. I'd have 10 teams in my level two that would make interesting bets and then assume a bet on anyone else is just throwing money away. I doubt this is that different from other professional sports leagues. Is it that much more difficult for a well-informed fan to predict the top five, followed by the next tier of 10ish teams, that have a legitimate shot at the championship in other sports? Maybe I'm wrong. I'm not a well-informed fan in any other leagues.
If "top 6" means picking three teams from the NFC, then it is possible that the Seahawks make it into that group. Eagles, and then who?
The Niners have a brutal schedule this year (worse than the Seahawks) and I see them as the team most likely to underperform the preseason expectations.
The Lions had a great draft in terms of players that can make an immediate impact, and would be contenders as the team that comes "out of nowhere" to contend for the NFC.
Dallas is a team with question marks all over it--they could be very good or very meh. The Giants likely have an edge in the NFC East but are not that scary, either.
Carolina has Young but will likely be a year away from serious contention.
If the Seahawks really do have a "top 5" (NFL) offense and their D makes a step up to "average" then... "why not us?"
I don't at this point perceive the Seahawks to be the kind of powerhouse that has a good chance to reach, let alone win, the Superbowl. To prove me wrong, we'd need to see a far better run defense and a real ability to apply pressure to quarterbacks. If those two changes manifest, I could change my mind, though we'd still need to see Geno Smith perform at least a standard deviation more effectively than last season, although that performance was probably a couple of standard deviations above what most anyone (other than Geno's mom) expected.
Maybe we'll get a breakout season from Mafe. Or maybe Hall will prove to be a monster. I think there's a good chance our starting corners will lock down both sides of the field pretty well, leaving only the slot and the run game. That alone could go a long way toward helping Mafe and/or Hall to break out. But I'll believe it when I see it.