There was no way the Baltimore Ravens could win the Super Bowl in 2000. Though they started 5-1, the Ravens lost their next three games in a row despite holding teams to 11 points per game because their offense only scored 15 COMBINED points, a unit so bad that not even the best defense of all-time could carry them.
In five October games, the Ravens scored ZERO touchdowns.
57 offensive drives
49% ended in a punt
25% ended in a field goal
20% ended in a turnover, turnover on downs, or missed field goal
6% end of half/game
0/57 ended in a touchdown
What happened after the losing streak was proof that it only takes one superstar on offense to win a Super Bowl IF you have the greatest defense of all-time. The Ravens continued to play inconsistent offensively — Trent Dilfer replacing Tony Banks is an overrated narrative — but they at least started scoring more than six points per game.
Rookie Jamal Lewis averaged over 100 yards per game during the team’s 11-game winning streak, which in modern terms isn’t too different than an offense that is 100% carried by Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, as good as the Seahawks defense is, it’s nowhere near the historic season that Baltimore had in 2000*.
*to jog your memory, 10 points per game, four shutouts, nine other games of single digits allowed
Seattle’s not going to go deep in the playoffs if JSN has to do everything on offense. Will anyone else step up for the Seahawks with three primetime games in the next three weeks?
Week 5’s Greatest Expectations: Seaside Ryan!
Hey I love the name choice! Ryan correctly picked the offensive/defensive players of the game (JSN, Murphy), the most sacks (Murphy), and the first Seahawks touchdown (Wilson). He was also within 16 yards of all three player predictions for Darnold, Wilson, and JSN.
Closest finalists: West Seattle Tim, Todd Murren, and mechmaster17. Closest final score expectation was cavmax, who had it down as 49ers 31, Seahawks 27.
The Seahawks are on a short week, the Expectation Survey must start now:
Broncos: 19.4 points per game (26th), 22.2 points per game allowed (13th)
Broncos pass defense: 252 yards per game (9th)
Broncos run defense: 145 yards per game (29th)
Seattle is scoring 26.8 points per game and allowing 21 per game, but many of those scores came off of turnovers. Darnold is averaging 247 passing yards per game, JSN is averaging 116.6 receiving yards per game.
Set Your Week 6 Expectations Here!
Samuel Garfield: Your 7 trade targets article did not list a single edge rusher. Some fans would be surprised at that. Do you disagree that an addition at EDGE could make a significant difference? Or are there not any targets who would make sense?
Among the teams I looked at for potential trades, which were 0-5 or 1-4 teams, I did not see any edge rushers worth trading for, in my opinion. Probably the most notable is Khalil Mack, which I would pass on.
Samuel Garfield: Some other options who aren’t 0-5 or 1-4:
- Jets (2-3)
- Commanders (1-3-1)
- Colts? (2-3; Jags are way ahead in division but Houston and Tennessee look weak as hell so maybe the Colts aren’t in the danger zone yet?)
I think these teams feel they are still capable of making the playoffs. Same with the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The coaches, and most of the general managers, are also on the hot seat. So it would come to waiting until probably two or three more losses before considering a move that would weaken their rosters.
An edge rusher is a worthy trade target.
Fans have come to expect better sack production than the three total for Derick Hall, Uchenna Nwosu, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Dante Fowler. Their presence isn’t consistently felt on game day.
But I also believe the Seahawks run the risk of adding an expensive pass rusher and then he ends up with the same amount of production because Mike Macdonald’s defense isn’t that interested in helping edge rushers get sacks. In Seattle, the outside linebackers have to drop into coverage more than other schemes and they have to play better run defense, so those are factors that the Seahawks have to consider before acquiring a player who has a high sack total.
There’s a reason that in four previous seasons as a defensive coordinator, no outside linebacker in MM’s defense has ever had double-digit sacks—And the only times one has had over seven sacks were Justin Houston, Kyle Van Noy, and Jadeveon Clowney.
Those were all cheap signings, as was Lawrence last year when he had seven. Per Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks are getting plenty of pressure with four-man rushes, they just aren’t leading to edge linebacker sacks.
If the Seahawks added an edge, who do they bench? Lawrence? Hall? Nwosu?
It feels like a potential move, but it doesn’t feel like the move.
West Seattle Tim: What is the first thing to fix for offense, defense and special teams?
Offense: Run the ball better
Defense: Convert more sacks
Special teams: The kickoff is broken anyway
Of course the Seahawks have to stop fumbling. Two each:
Emanuel Wilson
Jadarian Price
George Holani
Rashid Shaheed
Zach Charbonnet has zero career fumbles and Kenneth Walker has three, so that’s three combined fumbles over seven combined seasons. These running backs have six, and eight if you call Shaheed part-running back.
But that’s less concerning that 3.8 yards per carry (20th), 12 explosive runs (t17th), stuffed on 20% of carries (5th-worst), 24th in success rate, 23rd in yards before contact per attempt (0.96). Even with all the turnovers, the Seahawks should be 5-0 if they could just run the ball efficiently. Better run game also helps Seattle get into shorter third downs, where they are 31st in conversion rate.
On defense and special teams, I have fewer notes.
Helping Josh Jobe is not a lost cause, but maybe the best help would be disrupting the quarterback more often. The Seahawks are second in pressure rate behind the Vikings, but eighth in sack rate, whereas Minnesota is first in sack rate too.
I wouldn’t feel so pressed about sacks if Brock Purdy and Mike Evans weren’t going out to dinner every time he was clean in the pocket.
Special teams, there are Seattle specific things I could point to, but generally I’m just very frustrated with the kickoff rules. A team takes a 2-point lead with :15 seconds left? So what? Ball starts at the 35, at least. Kickers are so good now that the offense only needs to pick up 25 yards.
Can this benefit the Seahawks too? Sure. It already has.
But it’s starting to feel like teams are always at midfield, and to me this is making the game a little less interesting. Could just be a blip right now, and I’ll change my mind in a month, but my eye is on these kickoffs. What do you think of the kickoff format?
No idea what you do to kick-offs whilst still protecting players. Nor can I see how you make it harder for kickers.
I think, ultimately, it's just up to teams to adapt. It's not an NFL specific phenomenon. All sports are seeing the edges or normal pushed stretched and broken. The fun is in watching the smartest and the best find out how to live with that and find new counters.
Too easy for teams to go 25yds and kick? Get better at defence. Get better at offence so one kick doesn't matter.
It's all the articles about "the ravens broke football" but just running the ball in OT. It's not broken, it's smart! Get better at defending the run!
Seahawks. Get better at protecting the football, and the kicker kick-off question won't matter. Fix yourselves first, then the sport.
Charles Cross for OPG. I hope he shuts down Bonitto. Maybe he won't be able to win OPG even if he does well against Nick if Lucas can't effectively protect against Cooper on the right though.