The annoying thing that analysts keep getting wrong about the Seahawks

Why did the Seahawks score 13 points against the 49ers last time? Some people seem to forget so quickly

If you’re a Seahawks fan who has long waited for the moment to return when analysts predict that Seattle will win big games, this is your week.

Just one month after the Seahawks were expected to lose to the Rams at home and only two weeks after many predicted that they’d lose to the 49ers on the road, Seattle is 7.5-point favorites over the Niners on Saturday. From everything I’ve seen so far this week those same analysts and fans don’t want to bet against the Seahawks and be wrong again.

Is that more satisfying than being the team that everyone doubts?

That’s a personal preference to each individual but for me, while I never care who people pick to win a game, I do get a little bit frustrated when I see professionals who don’t show that they even have a clear picture on history while they’re making their picks for money.

Not even ancient history….11 days ago.

But before we get to recent history, let’s go back a little bit further and talk about the last time the Seahawks played the 49ers in the playoffs and what Seattle did to catch up, then surpass, San Francisco in a matter of two years.

Seahawks-49ers: Wild Card to Now

Seattle’s previous nine playoff games were against nine different teams, but on Saturday the Seahawks will face the team that they most recently saw in the postseason. When Seattle lost to the 49ers in the 2022 wild card round, the Seahawks allowed a franchise playoff-worst 505 total yards.

(Instead of showing you highlights of that game, here are some Richard Sherman/Kam Chancellor highlights instead)

It was the type of loss that should make a team realize that they aren’t as close to the Super Bowl as most playoff teams, losing 41-23 in the first round, and was especially concerning against a division rival when they know they have to be better than the 49ers and the Rams the next season.

Pete Carroll’s effort to inject talent back into the defense was probably too late (Seattle’s only defensive draft pick before the 4th round in 2021-2022 was Boye Mafe) and definitely too little (trading for Jamal Adams and then their early defensive picks from 2019-2020 included LJ Collier, Marquise Blair, Cody Barton, Jordyn Brooks, and Darrell Taylor).

The Seahawks actually made a few moves in 2023 that continue to help them after Carroll was fired, most notably trading for Leonard Williams, signing Julian Love and Jarran Reed, and drafting Devon Witherspoon, but Seattle predictably finished third in the NFC West and ranked 25th in points allowed:

• In 2023, the Seahawks allowed 402 points

• In 2023, the 49ers allowed an NFC-best 298 points

At that point it would be fair to wonder if the Seahawks would continue to lag behind the 49ers and Rams for several more seasons regardless of defensive improvements under Mike Macdonald. Seattle got their asses kicked by San Francisco in that playoff game, then got swept by the Niners in 2023 by a combined score of 59-29, then lost 36-24 in Macdonald’s first crack at Kyle Shanahan within the NFC West.

(Instead of a replay of that, here’s a trick play by Steve Largent)

But since beating the 49ers in Week 11 of last season, the Seahawks have been the best team in the NFL:

20-5 (double-digit losses: 0)

The 49ers since that game:

14-12 (double-digit losses: 8)

(Rams are 19-8, including playoffs, with no double-digit losses since losing to the Eagles last November.)

Seattle has the number one scoring defense over the last 1.5 seasons of football.

• In 2025, the Seahawks allowed an NFL-best 292 points

• In 2025, the 49ers allowed 371 points

The Seahawks have allowed 439 points in their last 25 games. Not bad for a defense that allowed over 400 points in both of Carroll/Clint Hurtt’s final two seasons running the defense from 2022-2023.

Not only that, but the best defense in the NFL also features many of the same players who played in that wild card loss to San Francisco, including Riq Woolen, Coby Bryant, Uchenna Nwosu, and Boye Mafe. And when Seattle allowed a season-worst 539 yards to the 49ers in a 2023 loss, they had Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Julian Love, Derick Hall, and Devon Witherspoon (for 7 snaps).

A game you can watch again here:

That means that nine CURRENT regulars on Seattle’s defense remember what it’s like to get their asses kicked by the 49ers.

Or at least…they could remember…(technically)…if not for the fact that they just held the 49ers to nine first downs in their last game. Now it’s not about anyone remembering how Seattle played in their more recent playoff game against the 49ers.

Instead they’re talking about how the 49ers played in their most recent regular season game against the Seahawks.

Which player do you think is the MVP of the 2025 Seahawks defense?

I’m not sure what you’ve seen so far this week, but every prediction I came across on Wednesday was in Seattle’s favor as a win over the 49ers.

I’m not sure how I feel about that.

This annoying half of the prediction discourse

Maybe it’s because I’m annoyed hearing people say, “Well, you gotta give Robert Saleh credit for still only holding the Seahawks to 13 points”.

So we’re giving the 49ers credit for Jason Myers missing two easy field goals? We’re giving the 49ers credit for Seattle making a horrible decision on the goal line on their first drive when they drove the ball right down the throat of San Francisco’s defense?

I’m not playing the “let’s change the score” game and saying that the Seahawks should have won 22-3 or 26-3…but they certainly could have because the Niners defense was a lot worse than the number of points that San Francisco “allowed”. A LOT worse.

• 180 rushing yards (Seattle’s 2nd-best game all year)

• 23 first downs (Seattle’s 3rd best)

• 0 turnovers (something that only happened 4 times)

• +5.41 offensive EPA (7th-best)

The Seahawks had a higher EPA in Week 18 against the 49ers than they had when they scored 44 points, when they scored 38 points against Rams, and when they scored 31 points against the Steelers.

You could argue that that only highlights how EPA can be misunderstood and misused, but it also emphasizes the fact that the Seahawks scored enough points to win and gained first downs when the Seahawks needed to gain first downs. If the game dictated more scoring, Seattle would have tried to score more points.

When your defense dictates that more scoring is unnecessary, then you don’t try to score more points.

(Even this clickbait title/thumbnail from Emmanuel Acho is ultimately a prediction that the Seahawks will win and LeSean McCoy saying it won’t even be close.)

Another wrinkle to this is that Seattle’s win over San Francisco, while lacking in the final nail of the coffin, wasn’t anything that the Seahawks are unaccustomed to this season:

The 2025 Seattle Seahawks ARE the team that probably let’s you back in it far more often than they should but still are far too good to lose in spite of it:

• Week 2 Steelers

• Week 4 Cardinals

• Week 6 Jaguars

• Week 7 Texans

• Week 12 Titans

All games that the Seahawks should have led by 20-30 in the fourth quarter and they let it get too close for comfort. But they also always won those games. Seattle didn’t play a good first half against the Vikings, Falcons, or Panthers, but eventually a light switches on.

Sam Darnold isn’t the reason that the Seahawks won 14 games. He might be the reason that they only lost 3. Despite the turnovers, he’s learned how to walk the line since the loss to the Bucs and now Seattle has won 11 of their last 12.

So to me the discourse that the game is close because the last game was close overlooks a lot of important contextual information that the two teams are not that close. In the same way that the Seahawks were not close to the 49ers in 2022 and in the second half of that game—despite Seattle leading at halftime—it wasn’t close.

The 49ers had their years. But this feels like the Seahawks week.

Thank you to everybody who read Tuesday’s bonus article about why I’m so confident that the Seahawks will win this weekend and those of you who just joined Regular Joes and Super Joes over the last 24 hours to read it.

You can still join up there or here and many more Seahawks newsletters to come!

Seaside Joe 2508