I think there’s a huge misconception out there that Minnesota really screwed up not keeping Sam. The truth is they only had one avenue to keep Sam and that was to tag him for 40 million guaranteed. Outside of that they’re only other option was to re-sign him as a free agent. Sam had the ability to go and do anything he wanted at that point.
We now know that they would’ve had to beat Seattle’s offer for over $100 million and three years. That’s a very different commitment than just keeping him for one more year because the kid’s not ready. That is a throw out the entire roster plan that we’ve been working on for two years and start over decision. It’s not illogical at all that they thought that was too much, and remember there weren’t very many people who were 100% sold on Sam at that point.
Things turned out horribly for Minnesota, but not because they were stupid. They were unlucky… which is how most NFL transactions turn out.
Very interesting. There is just always more than meets the eye in these situatinos it seems like.
I could be wrong, but I think Franchise tags hit the cap in the first year too. So they wouldn't have been able to be spread out the cap hit hampering their ability to sign FAs.
I think the option would've been to look at JJ as a sunk cost and be happy they found a starting quality QB and give him a 3-year deal similar to the Hawks. But to your point, he still has to accept that offer and he may choose Seattle without JJ breathing down his neck.
Great comment. Not as cut and dry as just keeping him and there are risks both ways.
When you think about it ... Was their decision to go younger and cheaper at QB that much different than the GM of the year John Schneider's???
Ya and with hindsight, I would make the same call as you, but with what they knew then, and JJ wasn’t hurt when they had to make these calls, I probably would have taken the kid and the cap space.
To the surprise of no one. I probably have a much different perspective than most on this matter. Great topic could take this convo a number of ways.
I think this offseason from a QB perspective was going to be wildly interesting. Who would be right spinning the QB roulette wheel? Obviously, the Seahawks came out on top. But I do not see any difference between Sam Darnold and Geno Smith. Their strengths and weaknesses are identical. They are extremely accurate pocket passers, great deep balls, but struggle with turnovers. I can't speak to intangibles because I am not in the locker-room. I do know that no teammate of Geno's or coaches have ever spoken negatively about him since being a Seahawk and Raider. Same goes for Sam.
I think the biggest move the Seahawks have made at the QB position was trading Russell. I think John Schneider believes that QBs are "over drafted and overpaid". Look at what he has done:
- Trade RW - Seahawks are the laughing stock of the league. Bill Barnwell gave their offseason the worst grade possible and couldn't fathom trading a "Franchise" QB
- Didn't even think about drafting a QB in 2022 with their 9th pick, 40th pick, and much to Ben Baldwin's dismay the 41st pick! And so on.
- Doubled down the following season in the draft and much to Rob Staton's dismay didn't pick Will Levis at 5. Didn't trade up for Stroud, Young, or Anthony Richardson. Didn't even consider a QB. Rode with Geno on a very cheap contract.
- 2024 preseason. Geno is way underpaid for his services, but 2-years left on his deal. Scheider does not blink and does not change the contract leading to
-2024 postseason. Kubiak is hired and says Geno was a big pull. Mike Mac publicly stating how good Geno is and how much he wants him back. The Seahawks offer Geno $70M and Geno's camp ... doesn't respond because they supposedly wanted $100M ($50M/yr). What does JS do? Does he chase the QB? Does he treat the QB as an all important god that ESPN wants you to believe they are? Schneider doesn't blink again! Doubles down and says, this guy seems decent over here. Instead of paying up for Geno lets pivot to Sam. Becasue ... We don't care what other people think.
What I see? Is a GM that has devalued the QB position. And think about it ... As Seahawk fans how happy are we to see Goff sign a $53M/Yr contract? How happy are we that Purdy signed a $53M/Yr contract? That is great news ... to us.
So when Geno played hard ball we decided to go back to the discarded well of QBs. And in comes SD warts and all. Guess what? It worked. Again.
Build a team. Focus on the trenches. Draft elite players like JSN. Trade for stars like EJ and Leo. Don't spend all your money on a QB, spread the wealth, walk the walk. You want the team to be tough defensively? Great pay them. You want to run the football? Great pay the tackles and keep K9. You want the QB to be a point guard? Great don't succumb to their demands and keep their workloads light. Walk the walk.
The Seahawks have done it, and its been a beautiful thing.
But now I am starting to see some really big numbers tossed around for Sam. And this is no knock on SD, but I just don't see it. Largely an ok season but not great. Bad teams pay ok players elite money. Especially at the QB position.
This is why I am very fascinated to see what JS will do with SD when the time comes in terms of contracts. I have friends already telling me "Pay him whatever he wants!". (This was me in 2015ish with RW, I have changed). But is paying the QB whatever he wants what got us here? Is our success QB driven? I hope JS stays the course but conventional NFL wisdom would say to pay SD top market. We have Drew Lock sitting right there on the bench! Would you rather pay SD $60M/yr or pay Lock $20M/yr and keep stacking players.
- GS was who he was. An ok QB that had reached his ceiling.
- SD is a QB on the improve, is ok but is still improving and he’s younger.
- GS was a consistent red zone intercept passer.
- SD started the season with some intercepts but has corrected and improved (something GS apparently was incapable of doing).
Sorry, but I just don’t see the comparison. There was always going to be a potential better future with SD. I don’t believe for a second that we’d be playing in the SB if GS was our QB. Thank the gods GS moved on.
When we brought Sam in what was the narrative? Most people thought he might work out. No one and I mean no one said he would take us to the Super Bowl. Several one year if needed, team friendly contract comments if my memory serves me correctly.
Was this GM that off thinking Sam might be done? Most of us thought the same thing. I’m glad our GM is smarter than me when it comes to football cause the narrative nationally was that Minny had dumped Sam just in time.
In my eyes the Seahawks lucked into getting Sam only because McCarthy got hurt last preseason. Suppose McCarthy didn't get hurt, sucked so bad early on they started Sam and then Sam saves their season. Not a chance in hell is he allowed to leave the building and what happens then? Does JS cave to Geno's demands? Do they start Lock? Oy, I don't even want to contemplate it.
All those are 100% true. And if SD plays well in either of his final two games, the Vikings sign him.
Additionally, if Pete Carrol isn't hired for the Raiders does Geno Smith turn down the Seahawks offer? I would doubt it. The Hawks offered him $70M, more than Sam, I think Geno would've taken it had Pete not gotten a job (but I also think the Hawks season would be largely the same, just my opinion)
This could be true but I think their GM would have stuck with JJ regardless. He was a first round qb…they usually don’t get thrown away as yesterdays trash
Been working in the field of analytics myself for over a decade.
The worst misapplication of it is folks who think that everything can essentially be boiled down to rational statistical analysis or that a good model applies in every situation. To use a model correctly you have to understand what the model accounts for and use your human judgment to decide when to ignore it (or tweak its advice).
If you don’t you risk running things like a D&D character with 20 INT and 1 WIS: the kind of person who analyzes a vampire using medical knowledge and recommends a blood transfusion to cure its “severe anemia” or some shit
Mike does a lot of really really good breakdowns of trends, stats, and then quite rightly so often sums up the video with some variation of "it's sport, so there is no pattern/forget the pattern". As you say Ken, sport is something done by humans and too many analytics cannot account for that.
The joy in sport is the surprise, the scenario of the 1% chance play coming off, of the dodgy bounce, of the unexpected. Analytics used correctly is an invaluable post-fact review tool, that you use to help shape your future plan. Do not wed yourself to it as an all consuming beacon of instruction, and do not confuse past trends of results as a guarantee of future ones. It's simple but too easily forgotten because, well it's easy to sell.
Speaking of which, Senior Bowl! I've been very down on this upcoming draft class. That opinion is unchanged. An awful lot of middling talent, with middling traits, and middling college performances. As much as we need to start refreshing the D-Line the best talent pools sit at the skill positions - WR, RB, CB. Which does work for us still, and tbf it's a good year to be picking 32 as your talent gap from 32 to i'd say 20 is going to be minimal. Couple of Centers looked good in Slaughter, Hecht and Brockermeyer, not sold on the Guards at all. Edge best served i think going to FA or trade market.
This very much the old Green Bay model. Draft a QB late they may pop. They either become a starter. ( Love or Hassleback ) then you can either keep them or try them
I don’t think Darnold is going anywhere anytime soon.
Regarding 4th down analytics - I remember MM speaking to it after a mid-season game where they kicked a FG instead of going for it. MM admitted that he always gets the analytics from their guy upstairs and a lot of times he goes with it, but sometimes he goes with his gut. I think he said in that particular situation it was better to go for it but not by much. I also wonder if analytics is based on a particular football situation from data on ALL games played or are they tailored to just the games on the individual teams - like the Seahawks. MM being 32nd on going for it on 4th downs might relate to the fact that he’s taking into consideration the ability of his defense to stop the opponent if he kicks it. I think the Seahawks give up the fewest points per drive and probably have the most three and outs. His decisions have worked out pretty well and I’m fine with him using his gut and what he feels his defense can do.
I have those same questions about the inputs. I think in general they are NFL averages. But I think teams can build out their own models to adjust, for example, FG percentages based on the weather.
So I think the models we see on Twitter and ESPN are very generic, but the models the teams have are very specific to your team.
So to your point, Mike Mac could still be using their own model, but we may have the defensive input turned up. Or something like that
In any event, I refuse to second guess him. Second guessing with hindsight is very counter productive, and those that make a call before the play conveniently remember every right call and forget all those wrong calls they made.
I remember that discussion. I think it was in reference to a 4th down around the 20 yard line that they went for a Field Goal that Meyers missed. It was a chip shot for him. Brock Huard asked him why not Barnyard it instead of kicking the FG? MM said it was 4th and a long one yard. Maybe 4 - 4.5 feet. He didn’t feel comfortable with the Barnyard from that distance. I didn’t get the impression he would never consider going for it on 4th and more than one yard. They recently went for it on 4th and goal from the three, which was after that discussion. They didn’t make it and a pass intended for Kupp was incomplete.
Whats better than to put the Niners back up at the 4 yard line!?
This is the thing with 4th downs that announcers miss, Plan B (not getting it) can be really advantageous. Was anyone worried about giving the ball to the Niners on the 4? I was pretty excited TBH
Exactly. I’m happy that Mm just doesn’t blindly go with what analytics tell him. he’s right to adjust based on how his team, offense, defense and ST is playing. If analytics is using an NFL average, it does not apply to a team that is an outlier compared to the average team.
I’m fine with the Browns moving to an AI GM. I hope they consider putting it in the body of a cyborg built to resemble Raquel Welch. Maybe in the offseason the AI could star in a remake of the film “1 Million BC.” Or was it 10 Million? Been a while since I’ve seen it.
I remember going to visit my younger brother at his college a long time ago. I went to a beer bong Olympics event they had. Fascinating spectator sport!
FWIW on Pat Mcafee Adam Schefter said Klint Kubiak will be HC or either the Raiders or Cardinals. He did not believe the Seahawks were an option for next year.
As some wise commenter stated, “There’s lies, damn lies and statistics”.
And ESPN is reporting the Seahawks have to be sold after the Super Bowl. Market timing. Terms of the will…
I think there’s a huge misconception out there that Minnesota really screwed up not keeping Sam. The truth is they only had one avenue to keep Sam and that was to tag him for 40 million guaranteed. Outside of that they’re only other option was to re-sign him as a free agent. Sam had the ability to go and do anything he wanted at that point.
We now know that they would’ve had to beat Seattle’s offer for over $100 million and three years. That’s a very different commitment than just keeping him for one more year because the kid’s not ready. That is a throw out the entire roster plan that we’ve been working on for two years and start over decision. It’s not illogical at all that they thought that was too much, and remember there weren’t very many people who were 100% sold on Sam at that point.
Things turned out horribly for Minnesota, but not because they were stupid. They were unlucky… which is how most NFL transactions turn out.
Very interesting. There is just always more than meets the eye in these situatinos it seems like.
I could be wrong, but I think Franchise tags hit the cap in the first year too. So they wouldn't have been able to be spread out the cap hit hampering their ability to sign FAs.
I think the option would've been to look at JJ as a sunk cost and be happy they found a starting quality QB and give him a 3-year deal similar to the Hawks. But to your point, he still has to accept that offer and he may choose Seattle without JJ breathing down his neck.
Great comment. Not as cut and dry as just keeping him and there are risks both ways.
When you think about it ... Was their decision to go younger and cheaper at QB that much different than the GM of the year John Schneider's???
Ya and with hindsight, I would make the same call as you, but with what they knew then, and JJ wasn’t hurt when they had to make these calls, I probably would have taken the kid and the cap space.
Analytics is a big part of my work.
This example is one that will be studied- and it is in fact being studied.
The human element isn't as easily quantified as the nerds would like people to believe.
Well written! Thank you Joe!
SEA!!
Best Darnold throw was the 2 point conversion win over the Rams. So great to beat them twice in one month. Go Hawks!
And crushing the Whiners back to back right there with those 2 wins over the Rams.
To the surprise of no one. I probably have a much different perspective than most on this matter. Great topic could take this convo a number of ways.
I think this offseason from a QB perspective was going to be wildly interesting. Who would be right spinning the QB roulette wheel? Obviously, the Seahawks came out on top. But I do not see any difference between Sam Darnold and Geno Smith. Their strengths and weaknesses are identical. They are extremely accurate pocket passers, great deep balls, but struggle with turnovers. I can't speak to intangibles because I am not in the locker-room. I do know that no teammate of Geno's or coaches have ever spoken negatively about him since being a Seahawk and Raider. Same goes for Sam.
I think the biggest move the Seahawks have made at the QB position was trading Russell. I think John Schneider believes that QBs are "over drafted and overpaid". Look at what he has done:
- Trade RW - Seahawks are the laughing stock of the league. Bill Barnwell gave their offseason the worst grade possible and couldn't fathom trading a "Franchise" QB
- Didn't even think about drafting a QB in 2022 with their 9th pick, 40th pick, and much to Ben Baldwin's dismay the 41st pick! And so on.
- Doubled down the following season in the draft and much to Rob Staton's dismay didn't pick Will Levis at 5. Didn't trade up for Stroud, Young, or Anthony Richardson. Didn't even consider a QB. Rode with Geno on a very cheap contract.
- 2024 preseason. Geno is way underpaid for his services, but 2-years left on his deal. Scheider does not blink and does not change the contract leading to
-2024 postseason. Kubiak is hired and says Geno was a big pull. Mike Mac publicly stating how good Geno is and how much he wants him back. The Seahawks offer Geno $70M and Geno's camp ... doesn't respond because they supposedly wanted $100M ($50M/yr). What does JS do? Does he chase the QB? Does he treat the QB as an all important god that ESPN wants you to believe they are? Schneider doesn't blink again! Doubles down and says, this guy seems decent over here. Instead of paying up for Geno lets pivot to Sam. Becasue ... We don't care what other people think.
What I see? Is a GM that has devalued the QB position. And think about it ... As Seahawk fans how happy are we to see Goff sign a $53M/Yr contract? How happy are we that Purdy signed a $53M/Yr contract? That is great news ... to us.
So when Geno played hard ball we decided to go back to the discarded well of QBs. And in comes SD warts and all. Guess what? It worked. Again.
Build a team. Focus on the trenches. Draft elite players like JSN. Trade for stars like EJ and Leo. Don't spend all your money on a QB, spread the wealth, walk the walk. You want the team to be tough defensively? Great pay them. You want to run the football? Great pay the tackles and keep K9. You want the QB to be a point guard? Great don't succumb to their demands and keep their workloads light. Walk the walk.
The Seahawks have done it, and its been a beautiful thing.
But now I am starting to see some really big numbers tossed around for Sam. And this is no knock on SD, but I just don't see it. Largely an ok season but not great. Bad teams pay ok players elite money. Especially at the QB position.
This is why I am very fascinated to see what JS will do with SD when the time comes in terms of contracts. I have friends already telling me "Pay him whatever he wants!". (This was me in 2015ish with RW, I have changed). But is paying the QB whatever he wants what got us here? Is our success QB driven? I hope JS stays the course but conventional NFL wisdom would say to pay SD top market. We have Drew Lock sitting right there on the bench! Would you rather pay SD $60M/yr or pay Lock $20M/yr and keep stacking players.
Time will tell. NFL always entertaining.
No difference b/w SD & GS?
- GS was who he was. An ok QB that had reached his ceiling.
- SD is a QB on the improve, is ok but is still improving and he’s younger.
- GS was a consistent red zone intercept passer.
- SD started the season with some intercepts but has corrected and improved (something GS apparently was incapable of doing).
Sorry, but I just don’t see the comparison. There was always going to be a potential better future with SD. I don’t believe for a second that we’d be playing in the SB if GS was our QB. Thank the gods GS moved on.
When we brought Sam in what was the narrative? Most people thought he might work out. No one and I mean no one said he would take us to the Super Bowl. Several one year if needed, team friendly contract comments if my memory serves me correctly.
Was this GM that off thinking Sam might be done? Most of us thought the same thing. I’m glad our GM is smarter than me when it comes to football cause the narrative nationally was that Minny had dumped Sam just in time.
In my eyes the Seahawks lucked into getting Sam only because McCarthy got hurt last preseason. Suppose McCarthy didn't get hurt, sucked so bad early on they started Sam and then Sam saves their season. Not a chance in hell is he allowed to leave the building and what happens then? Does JS cave to Geno's demands? Do they start Lock? Oy, I don't even want to contemplate it.
The margins in the NFL are crazy.
All those are 100% true. And if SD plays well in either of his final two games, the Vikings sign him.
Additionally, if Pete Carrol isn't hired for the Raiders does Geno Smith turn down the Seahawks offer? I would doubt it. The Hawks offered him $70M, more than Sam, I think Geno would've taken it had Pete not gotten a job (but I also think the Hawks season would be largely the same, just my opinion)
This could be true but I think their GM would have stuck with JJ regardless. He was a first round qb…they usually don’t get thrown away as yesterdays trash
Been working in the field of analytics myself for over a decade.
The worst misapplication of it is folks who think that everything can essentially be boiled down to rational statistical analysis or that a good model applies in every situation. To use a model correctly you have to understand what the model accounts for and use your human judgment to decide when to ignore it (or tweak its advice).
If you don’t you risk running things like a D&D character with 20 INT and 1 WIS: the kind of person who analyzes a vampire using medical knowledge and recommends a blood transfusion to cure its “severe anemia” or some shit
You are A Stute, Samuel.
Time to link to a YT channel i'm sure some here either have seen or are subbed to - https://www.youtube.com/@michaelmackelvie
Mike does a lot of really really good breakdowns of trends, stats, and then quite rightly so often sums up the video with some variation of "it's sport, so there is no pattern/forget the pattern". As you say Ken, sport is something done by humans and too many analytics cannot account for that.
The joy in sport is the surprise, the scenario of the 1% chance play coming off, of the dodgy bounce, of the unexpected. Analytics used correctly is an invaluable post-fact review tool, that you use to help shape your future plan. Do not wed yourself to it as an all consuming beacon of instruction, and do not confuse past trends of results as a guarantee of future ones. It's simple but too easily forgotten because, well it's easy to sell.
Speaking of which, Senior Bowl! I've been very down on this upcoming draft class. That opinion is unchanged. An awful lot of middling talent, with middling traits, and middling college performances. As much as we need to start refreshing the D-Line the best talent pools sit at the skill positions - WR, RB, CB. Which does work for us still, and tbf it's a good year to be picking 32 as your talent gap from 32 to i'd say 20 is going to be minimal. Couple of Centers looked good in Slaughter, Hecht and Brockermeyer, not sold on the Guards at all. Edge best served i think going to FA or trade market.
How many jellybeans? 1225!
This very much the old Green Bay model. Draft a QB late they may pop. They either become a starter. ( Love or Hassleback ) then you can either keep them or try them
I don’t think Darnold is going anywhere anytime soon.
Sam is differnt now, in a Good Way.
Regarding 4th down analytics - I remember MM speaking to it after a mid-season game where they kicked a FG instead of going for it. MM admitted that he always gets the analytics from their guy upstairs and a lot of times he goes with it, but sometimes he goes with his gut. I think he said in that particular situation it was better to go for it but not by much. I also wonder if analytics is based on a particular football situation from data on ALL games played or are they tailored to just the games on the individual teams - like the Seahawks. MM being 32nd on going for it on 4th downs might relate to the fact that he’s taking into consideration the ability of his defense to stop the opponent if he kicks it. I think the Seahawks give up the fewest points per drive and probably have the most three and outs. His decisions have worked out pretty well and I’m fine with him using his gut and what he feels his defense can do.
I have those same questions about the inputs. I think in general they are NFL averages. But I think teams can build out their own models to adjust, for example, FG percentages based on the weather.
So I think the models we see on Twitter and ESPN are very generic, but the models the teams have are very specific to your team.
So to your point, Mike Mac could still be using their own model, but we may have the defensive input turned up. Or something like that
In any event, I refuse to second guess him. Second guessing with hindsight is very counter productive, and those that make a call before the play conveniently remember every right call and forget all those wrong calls they made.
MM told Huard he won't consider going for it on 4th if it is over a yard.
I remember that discussion. I think it was in reference to a 4th down around the 20 yard line that they went for a Field Goal that Meyers missed. It was a chip shot for him. Brock Huard asked him why not Barnyard it instead of kicking the FG? MM said it was 4th and a long one yard. Maybe 4 - 4.5 feet. He didn’t feel comfortable with the Barnyard from that distance. I didn’t get the impression he would never consider going for it on 4th and more than one yard. They recently went for it on 4th and goal from the three, which was after that discussion. They didn’t make it and a pass intended for Kupp was incomplete.
Pass was incomplete but I loved the decision.
Whats better than to put the Niners back up at the 4 yard line!?
This is the thing with 4th downs that announcers miss, Plan B (not getting it) can be really advantageous. Was anyone worried about giving the ball to the Niners on the 4? I was pretty excited TBH
Exactly. I’m happy that Mm just doesn’t blindly go with what analytics tell him. he’s right to adjust based on how his team, offense, defense and ST is playing. If analytics is using an NFL average, it does not apply to a team that is an outlier compared to the average team.
How long before we have an AI GM?
do not give the Browns ideas!
I’m fine with the Browns moving to an AI GM. I hope they consider putting it in the body of a cyborg built to resemble Raquel Welch. Maybe in the offseason the AI could star in a remake of the film “1 Million BC.” Or was it 10 Million? Been a while since I’ve seen it.
1 million. I had a poster of her in her “costume” from that movie on my wall as a teenager.
You had more self control that I did as a teenager. I’d have gone blind if that poster was on my wall.
I could find another sport to follow.
I remember going to visit my younger brother at his college a long time ago. I went to a beer bong Olympics event they had. Fascinating spectator sport!
FWIW on Pat Mcafee Adam Schefter said Klint Kubiak will be HC or either the Raiders or Cardinals. He did not believe the Seahawks were an option for next year.