I think the Grubb, DK and Geno divorces, and the Darnold, Kubiak, and Kupp adds were the antithesis of Analytics Football. Analytics will never value people over players, but that's what those moves were. Great people who can contribute on and off the field. The reason we're in the Super Bowl is because of TEAM and UNITY first, and skill second. You need good players certainly, even a few great players. But they need to play for the team first, and themselves a distant second. They need to share the vision of who they are, and who they want to be. They need to be brothers to the core, and they are.
I don't know who McCarthy will end up being, but clearly the GM didn't value Sam the person as much as he needed to, and overlooked Sam the player based on two games where the TEAM did not perform overall. And his drafts have not been good. You can't build a great team from your office.
I'm very grateful to John and staff, and to coach Macdonald for what they've built. They've built this the right way.
I understand analytics to be subjective based on what data you are using, so its not infallible. If analytics was exact, would more people win at games of chance? Wouldn't Draft Kings go broke? Data is like AI, its good for some stuff until you have 3 fingers and 2 thumbs.
My biggest frustration with this type of "analytics" is that it clearly misses the actual lesson from recent SB winners and perennial playoff teams; it's not "rookie contract QBs", it's simply not paying top-of-the-market money to players who aren't at the top of their market *at that specific position* because of how their contracts have exploded since the mid 2010s.
Seattle is now a perfect example of this, you just need above-average play at a rate that isn't near the top of the league. The Chiefs paid their superstar QB top-of-the-market money over a long period of time because they understood that a 26 year old probably isn't going to get worse but the market at the position was going to go up ALOT.
Unlike the vastly under appreciated Geno Smith, I can't see Sam flipping off his team's fans in two different cities!
As far as JJ goes, he is the the poster boy for a good college QB on a great team. Some pro talent evaluators said , regarding JJ , that at Michigan he was never asked to do anything more than don't screw up. That's not a great endorsement for a top ten QB draft pick much less a NFL starting QB. The Vikes will be paying for the stupidity of their newly fired, new age GM for seasons to come.
One last thing, I call it the " chip on the shoulder " effect. See Richard Sherman, Cam Chandler, Doug Baldwin , Jeremy Kearse , Steve Largent, Beast Mode, etc. etc. Just like a players heart, it hard to measure! Today's Seahawks are full of them..
Also, the 1st imbedded article clip about Kwesi would carry more weight if it was written by someone who knew not to use a double negative, like he did in the last sentence.
The one true thing about this team is that it has somehow landed on the idea of the TEAM as being paramount. I know a lot of teams say stuff that sounds similar, but these guys (at least for this year) really seem to believe it. They are riding a wave of belief and interestingly, in sports, the analytics, powerful as they are, have not figured out how to reflect that. It is one of the coolest aspects of sports. Belief and trust. And also momentum, another strange and related part of the game. Not easily measurable, but so clearly powerful. Even more kudos to JS for putting this group together and to Mike Mac for emphasizing it.
We all watched this human magic go down this season. Sometimes choosing the right group is even more powerful than choosing the right 'stars'.
“Case in point, this firing is just the latest in a series of bad PR for analytics following a rash of playoff coaches getting criticized for not taking free points:”
Bill Barnwell wrote a typically long winded explanation of why Sean Payton passed up the chip shot FG that would have given Denver a 10-0 lead. Despite the Tolstoyan length of the discourse, he never grappled with the central issue: Denver’s QB did not throw a pass in the regular season, hadn’t started since 2023, and several inches of snow were imminent. There is no serious argument for declining a two-score lead in those circumstances, but Barnwell wrote as if it were an open question. These guys just will not let go.
A reasonably reliable Seahawks source says the Seahawks will NOT be sold as per the rumor, and Brock Huard has gone on record as saying that the rumor might be a New England trick to cause a distraction.
If this ends up being smoke generated by the Patriots to cause a distraction, there should be real penalties that result in a behavior change by Kraft.
Or there is a somewhat political angle to why Kraft might do this, but we really don’t need more politics in our lives.
I think there’s a huge misconception out there that Minnesota really screwed up not keeping Sam. The truth is they only had one avenue to keep Sam and that was to tag him for 40 million guaranteed. Outside of that they’re only other option was to re-sign him as a free agent. Sam had the ability to go and do anything he wanted at that point.
We now know that they would’ve had to beat Seattle’s offer for over $100 million and three years. That’s a very different commitment than just keeping him for one more year because the kid’s not ready. That is a throw out the entire roster plan that we’ve been working on for two years and start over decision. It’s not illogical at all that they thought that was too much, and remember there weren’t very many people who were 100% sold on Sam at that point.
Things turned out horribly for Minnesota, but not because they were stupid. They were unlucky… which is how most NFL transactions turn out.
Very interesting. There is just always more than meets the eye in these situatinos it seems like.
I could be wrong, but I think Franchise tags hit the cap in the first year too. So they wouldn't have been able to be spread out the cap hit hampering their ability to sign FAs.
I think the option would've been to look at JJ as a sunk cost and be happy they found a starting quality QB and give him a 3-year deal similar to the Hawks. But to your point, he still has to accept that offer and he may choose Seattle without JJ breathing down his neck.
Great comment. Not as cut and dry as just keeping him and there are risks both ways.
When you think about it ... Was their decision to go younger and cheaper at QB that much different than the GM of the year John Schneider's???
Ya and with hindsight, I would make the same call as you, but with what they knew then, and JJ wasn’t hurt when they had to make these calls, I probably would have taken the kid and the cap space.
To the surprise of no one. I probably have a much different perspective than most on this matter. Great topic could take this convo a number of ways.
I think this offseason from a QB perspective was going to be wildly interesting. Who would be right spinning the QB roulette wheel? Obviously, the Seahawks came out on top. But I do not see any difference between Sam Darnold and Geno Smith. Their strengths and weaknesses are identical. They are extremely accurate pocket passers, great deep balls, but struggle with turnovers. I can't speak to intangibles because I am not in the locker-room. I do know that no teammate of Geno's or coaches have ever spoken negatively about him since being a Seahawk and Raider. Same goes for Sam.
I think the biggest move the Seahawks have made at the QB position was trading Russell. I think John Schneider believes that QBs are "over drafted and overpaid". Look at what he has done:
- Trade RW - Seahawks are the laughing stock of the league. Bill Barnwell gave their offseason the worst grade possible and couldn't fathom trading a "Franchise" QB
- Didn't even think about drafting a QB in 2022 with their 9th pick, 40th pick, and much to Ben Baldwin's dismay the 41st pick! And so on.
- Doubled down the following season in the draft and much to Rob Staton's dismay didn't pick Will Levis at 5. Didn't trade up for Stroud, Young, or Anthony Richardson. Didn't even consider a QB. Rode with Geno on a very cheap contract.
- 2024 preseason. Geno is way underpaid for his services, but 2-years left on his deal. Scheider does not blink and does not change the contract leading to
-2024 postseason. Kubiak is hired and says Geno was a big pull. Mike Mac publicly stating how good Geno is and how much he wants him back. The Seahawks offer Geno $70M and Geno's camp ... doesn't respond because they supposedly wanted $100M ($50M/yr). What does JS do? Does he chase the QB? Does he treat the QB as an all important god that ESPN wants you to believe they are? Schneider doesn't blink again! Doubles down and says, this guy seems decent over here. Instead of paying up for Geno lets pivot to Sam. Becasue ... We don't care what other people think.
What I see? Is a GM that has devalued the QB position. And think about it ... As Seahawk fans how happy are we to see Goff sign a $53M/Yr contract? How happy are we that Purdy signed a $53M/Yr contract? That is great news ... to us.
So when Geno played hard ball we decided to go back to the discarded well of QBs. And in comes SD warts and all. Guess what? It worked. Again.
Build a team. Focus on the trenches. Draft elite players like JSN. Trade for stars like EJ and Leo. Don't spend all your money on a QB, spread the wealth, walk the walk. You want the team to be tough defensively? Great pay them. You want to run the football? Great pay the tackles and keep K9. You want the QB to be a point guard? Great don't succumb to their demands and keep their workloads light. Walk the walk.
The Seahawks have done it, and its been a beautiful thing.
But now I am starting to see some really big numbers tossed around for Sam. And this is no knock on SD, but I just don't see it. Largely an ok season but not great. Bad teams pay ok players elite money. Especially at the QB position.
This is why I am very fascinated to see what JS will do with SD when the time comes in terms of contracts. I have friends already telling me "Pay him whatever he wants!". (This was me in 2015ish with RW, I have changed). But is paying the QB whatever he wants what got us here? Is our success QB driven? I hope JS stays the course but conventional NFL wisdom would say to pay SD top market. We have Drew Lock sitting right there on the bench! Would you rather pay SD $60M/yr or pay Lock $20M/yr and keep stacking players.
We can see the JS philosophy at other positions besides QB, as well. You hit the nail on the head when you said "spread the wealth" and "keep their load light". This is exactly how they are treating the RB situation, too. If he builds a team this way, Seattle becomes a place that players can compete for a Superb Owl while playing fewer snaps and thereby extending their careers. Players that want that type of situation are generally not "me first" type of people and are good teammates. Seems to me like JS has a vision to create a true "family" organization to attract players who want to win like that and he can spread out the money and not rely on just 1 or 2 guys. I love it. It makes for an organization that treats people the right way we can all be proud to be fans of.
- GS was who he was. An ok QB that had reached his ceiling.
- SD is a QB on the improve, is ok but is still improving and he’s younger.
- GS was a consistent red zone intercept passer.
- SD started the season with some intercepts but has corrected and improved (something GS apparently was incapable of doing).
Sorry, but I just don’t see the comparison. There was always going to be a potential better future with SD. I don’t believe for a second that we’d be playing in the SB if GS was our QB. Thank the gods GS moved on.
Yeah, when you put it this way. I wasn't in love with Geno but he did OK. I wasn't in love with Sam (until he started zinging it in the last Rams game), but he is also OK. And I was very happy to see us move on from Russ at the time - fun to torture the Donkeys
And you're absolutely right about stacking players with a competent QB. I'm happy that Sam doesn't have to be amazing, that the rest of the team can carry
I watched every snap of Raiders football this year and it’s been incredible to watch the difference between the Hawks and Raiders.
Just amazing perspective to gain.
I can assure you … the QB is not the difference. There are so many differences up and down management, to roster, to owner that it really makes most individual players irrelevant to the outcome.
It’s been eye opening and a cool year even if the goal was to have fun with Pete and Geno. The result was, wow, this is how bad teams do things.
I can see a possible Geno SB, and agree with your OP mostly, but you can't be serious being undefeated. I kind of agree that SD has shown more growth than Geno, and hopefully grows some more. If he does, do you think JS will offer, let's say $50/year towards the end of this contract? Which would be a bargain given the year over year inflation of the cap?
No I don’t seriously think undefeated … but I say it to counteract what I would consider equally far fetched on the otherside which is not making the playoffs or something like that. The main point really is that this is a great team top to bottom and the QB is a cog in the wheel.
Yes! Me and you are on the same page. If SD plays like did in the NFC championship for most of the year? And raises the floor on his bad games, like he did after the rams game? I think $50M+ is on the table.
Danno said it the other day, there is just a lot of flexibility with what can happen in a year even after a SB win.
By and large, this is a defense and running team and that is how we want to win games.
Just to clarify Mike McD, I never said anything about playoffs. I only said I don’t believe we’d be in the SB if Geno was our QB. I don’t think that is ‘far fetched’. Rather, it’s a reasonable assumption I believe.
Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with you having a different opinion. It’s good that people disagree on things. That’s what makes chats like SJ so entertaining.
It's not too hard to imagine an undefeated season for the 'Hawks this year. It's also not hard to imagine losses in week 4 against AZ, wk 6 - Jacksonville, wk 7 - Texas, wk 12 - Tenn., and week 15 against Indi. We could have been 9-8 and out of the playoffs. There really isn't any such thing as an alternate universe, and we really did finish 14-3, and we're in the Super Bowl. Go 'Hawks
EDIT: I overlooked the week 16 win over L.A., which could easily have been a loss. Our Seahawks could have been 8-9, and we'd all be suicidal.
When we brought Sam in what was the narrative? Most people thought he might work out. No one and I mean no one said he would take us to the Super Bowl. Several one year if needed, team friendly contract comments if my memory serves me correctly.
Was this GM that off thinking Sam might be done? Most of us thought the same thing. I’m glad our GM is smarter than me when it comes to football cause the narrative nationally was that Minny had dumped Sam just in time.
In my eyes the Seahawks lucked into getting Sam only because McCarthy got hurt last preseason. Suppose McCarthy didn't get hurt, sucked so bad early on they started Sam and then Sam saves their season. Not a chance in hell is he allowed to leave the building and what happens then? Does JS cave to Geno's demands? Do they start Lock? Oy, I don't even want to contemplate it.
All those are 100% true. And if SD plays well in either of his final two games, the Vikings sign him.
Additionally, if Pete Carrol isn't hired for the Raiders does Geno Smith turn down the Seahawks offer? I would doubt it. The Hawks offered him $70M, more than Sam, I think Geno would've taken it had Pete not gotten a job (but I also think the Hawks season would be largely the same, just my opinion)
This could be true but I think their GM would have stuck with JJ regardless. He was a first round qb…they usually don’t get thrown away as yesterdays trash
Been working in the field of analytics myself for over a decade.
The worst misapplication of it is folks who think that everything can essentially be boiled down to rational statistical analysis or that a good model applies in every situation. To use a model correctly you have to understand what the model accounts for and use your human judgment to decide when to ignore it (or tweak its advice).
If you don’t you risk running things like a D&D character with 20 INT and 1 WIS: the kind of person who analyzes a vampire using medical knowledge and recommends a blood transfusion to cure its “severe anemia” or some shit
Plus account for assumptions and limitations. As near as I can tell, analytics assume that they are always right and that their model has no limitations.
I think the Grubb, DK and Geno divorces, and the Darnold, Kubiak, and Kupp adds were the antithesis of Analytics Football. Analytics will never value people over players, but that's what those moves were. Great people who can contribute on and off the field. The reason we're in the Super Bowl is because of TEAM and UNITY first, and skill second. You need good players certainly, even a few great players. But they need to play for the team first, and themselves a distant second. They need to share the vision of who they are, and who they want to be. They need to be brothers to the core, and they are.
I don't know who McCarthy will end up being, but clearly the GM didn't value Sam the person as much as he needed to, and overlooked Sam the player based on two games where the TEAM did not perform overall. And his drafts have not been good. You can't build a great team from your office.
I'm very grateful to John and staff, and to coach Macdonald for what they've built. They've built this the right way.
I understand analytics to be subjective based on what data you are using, so its not infallible. If analytics was exact, would more people win at games of chance? Wouldn't Draft Kings go broke? Data is like AI, its good for some stuff until you have 3 fingers and 2 thumbs.
My biggest frustration with this type of "analytics" is that it clearly misses the actual lesson from recent SB winners and perennial playoff teams; it's not "rookie contract QBs", it's simply not paying top-of-the-market money to players who aren't at the top of their market *at that specific position* because of how their contracts have exploded since the mid 2010s.
Seattle is now a perfect example of this, you just need above-average play at a rate that isn't near the top of the league. The Chiefs paid their superstar QB top-of-the-market money over a long period of time because they understood that a 26 year old probably isn't going to get worse but the market at the position was going to go up ALOT.
Unlike the vastly under appreciated Geno Smith, I can't see Sam flipping off his team's fans in two different cities!
As far as JJ goes, he is the the poster boy for a good college QB on a great team. Some pro talent evaluators said , regarding JJ , that at Michigan he was never asked to do anything more than don't screw up. That's not a great endorsement for a top ten QB draft pick much less a NFL starting QB. The Vikes will be paying for the stupidity of their newly fired, new age GM for seasons to come.
One last thing, I call it the " chip on the shoulder " effect. See Richard Sherman, Cam Chandler, Doug Baldwin , Jeremy Kearse , Steve Largent, Beast Mode, etc. etc. Just like a players heart, it hard to measure! Today's Seahawks are full of them..
Yes,coaches are going for it too much.
Also, the 1st imbedded article clip about Kwesi would carry more weight if it was written by someone who knew not to use a double negative, like he did in the last sentence.
There is nothing wrong with a double negative if you're discussing JJ McCarthy Carthy!
The one true thing about this team is that it has somehow landed on the idea of the TEAM as being paramount. I know a lot of teams say stuff that sounds similar, but these guys (at least for this year) really seem to believe it. They are riding a wave of belief and interestingly, in sports, the analytics, powerful as they are, have not figured out how to reflect that. It is one of the coolest aspects of sports. Belief and trust. And also momentum, another strange and related part of the game. Not easily measurable, but so clearly powerful. Even more kudos to JS for putting this group together and to Mike Mac for emphasizing it.
We all watched this human magic go down this season. Sometimes choosing the right group is even more powerful than choosing the right 'stars'.
I'm stealing Human Magic as a band name
“Case in point, this firing is just the latest in a series of bad PR for analytics following a rash of playoff coaches getting criticized for not taking free points:”
Bill Barnwell wrote a typically long winded explanation of why Sean Payton passed up the chip shot FG that would have given Denver a 10-0 lead. Despite the Tolstoyan length of the discourse, he never grappled with the central issue: Denver’s QB did not throw a pass in the regular season, hadn’t started since 2023, and several inches of snow were imminent. There is no serious argument for declining a two-score lead in those circumstances, but Barnwell wrote as if it were an open question. These guys just will not let go.
As some wise commenter stated, “There’s lies, damn lies and statistics”.
And ESPN is reporting the Seahawks have to be sold after the Super Bowl. Market timing. Terms of the will…
A reasonably reliable Seahawks source says the Seahawks will NOT be sold as per the rumor, and Brock Huard has gone on record as saying that the rumor might be a New England trick to cause a distraction.
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/seattle-seahawks-sale-report-new-england-patriots-dirty-media/1837651?fbclid=IwY2xjawPqS9NleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEe-EE7KV3FBh8gXcFGkaywBacC0VvJ4pyq97nYhfCa8354whZeL7PN3CqyOYw_aem_2OcnaSk-1b9jTY-OD97DXw
If this ends up being smoke generated by the Patriots to cause a distraction, there should be real penalties that result in a behavior change by Kraft.
Or there is a somewhat political angle to why Kraft might do this, but we really don’t need more politics in our lives.
Ray, your comment deserves to be pinned for everyone to read. Thank you. I hadn't seen the info
I forgot who we were up against. I’d be surprised if that office wanted to sell two franchises at once. Also forgot about the Trailblazers.
I think there’s a huge misconception out there that Minnesota really screwed up not keeping Sam. The truth is they only had one avenue to keep Sam and that was to tag him for 40 million guaranteed. Outside of that they’re only other option was to re-sign him as a free agent. Sam had the ability to go and do anything he wanted at that point.
We now know that they would’ve had to beat Seattle’s offer for over $100 million and three years. That’s a very different commitment than just keeping him for one more year because the kid’s not ready. That is a throw out the entire roster plan that we’ve been working on for two years and start over decision. It’s not illogical at all that they thought that was too much, and remember there weren’t very many people who were 100% sold on Sam at that point.
Things turned out horribly for Minnesota, but not because they were stupid. They were unlucky… which is how most NFL transactions turn out.
Very interesting. There is just always more than meets the eye in these situatinos it seems like.
I could be wrong, but I think Franchise tags hit the cap in the first year too. So they wouldn't have been able to be spread out the cap hit hampering their ability to sign FAs.
I think the option would've been to look at JJ as a sunk cost and be happy they found a starting quality QB and give him a 3-year deal similar to the Hawks. But to your point, he still has to accept that offer and he may choose Seattle without JJ breathing down his neck.
Great comment. Not as cut and dry as just keeping him and there are risks both ways.
When you think about it ... Was their decision to go younger and cheaper at QB that much different than the GM of the year John Schneider's???
Ya and with hindsight, I would make the same call as you, but with what they knew then, and JJ wasn’t hurt when they had to make these calls, I probably would have taken the kid and the cap space.
No disagreement here.
I didn't mean to make it sound like that is what I would have done. More just thinking through what the options were.
1) Franchise Tag: hits cap space is the negative
2) 3-year contract, JJ sits and lowers cap space but less up front
3) Go with the kid you drafted tons of cap space to acquire FAs
Not a simple decision
Analytics is a big part of my work.
This example is one that will be studied- and it is in fact being studied.
The human element isn't as easily quantified as the nerds would like people to believe.
Well written! Thank you Joe!
SEA!!
Side!
Joe!!!
Although I am not superstitious, I am a little bit stitious. So, I will give you your:
HAWKS!!
I also appreciate the "saw" reply above.
BEGAW!
SAW
Best Darnold throw was the 2 point conversion win over the Rams. So great to beat them twice in one month. Go Hawks!
My choice too! Saubert out of nowhere 🎉
My exact thoughts, Chip.
And crushing the Whiners back to back right there with those 2 wins over the Rams.
To the surprise of no one. I probably have a much different perspective than most on this matter. Great topic could take this convo a number of ways.
I think this offseason from a QB perspective was going to be wildly interesting. Who would be right spinning the QB roulette wheel? Obviously, the Seahawks came out on top. But I do not see any difference between Sam Darnold and Geno Smith. Their strengths and weaknesses are identical. They are extremely accurate pocket passers, great deep balls, but struggle with turnovers. I can't speak to intangibles because I am not in the locker-room. I do know that no teammate of Geno's or coaches have ever spoken negatively about him since being a Seahawk and Raider. Same goes for Sam.
I think the biggest move the Seahawks have made at the QB position was trading Russell. I think John Schneider believes that QBs are "over drafted and overpaid". Look at what he has done:
- Trade RW - Seahawks are the laughing stock of the league. Bill Barnwell gave their offseason the worst grade possible and couldn't fathom trading a "Franchise" QB
- Didn't even think about drafting a QB in 2022 with their 9th pick, 40th pick, and much to Ben Baldwin's dismay the 41st pick! And so on.
- Doubled down the following season in the draft and much to Rob Staton's dismay didn't pick Will Levis at 5. Didn't trade up for Stroud, Young, or Anthony Richardson. Didn't even consider a QB. Rode with Geno on a very cheap contract.
- 2024 preseason. Geno is way underpaid for his services, but 2-years left on his deal. Scheider does not blink and does not change the contract leading to
-2024 postseason. Kubiak is hired and says Geno was a big pull. Mike Mac publicly stating how good Geno is and how much he wants him back. The Seahawks offer Geno $70M and Geno's camp ... doesn't respond because they supposedly wanted $100M ($50M/yr). What does JS do? Does he chase the QB? Does he treat the QB as an all important god that ESPN wants you to believe they are? Schneider doesn't blink again! Doubles down and says, this guy seems decent over here. Instead of paying up for Geno lets pivot to Sam. Becasue ... We don't care what other people think.
What I see? Is a GM that has devalued the QB position. And think about it ... As Seahawk fans how happy are we to see Goff sign a $53M/Yr contract? How happy are we that Purdy signed a $53M/Yr contract? That is great news ... to us.
So when Geno played hard ball we decided to go back to the discarded well of QBs. And in comes SD warts and all. Guess what? It worked. Again.
Build a team. Focus on the trenches. Draft elite players like JSN. Trade for stars like EJ and Leo. Don't spend all your money on a QB, spread the wealth, walk the walk. You want the team to be tough defensively? Great pay them. You want to run the football? Great pay the tackles and keep K9. You want the QB to be a point guard? Great don't succumb to their demands and keep their workloads light. Walk the walk.
The Seahawks have done it, and its been a beautiful thing.
But now I am starting to see some really big numbers tossed around for Sam. And this is no knock on SD, but I just don't see it. Largely an ok season but not great. Bad teams pay ok players elite money. Especially at the QB position.
This is why I am very fascinated to see what JS will do with SD when the time comes in terms of contracts. I have friends already telling me "Pay him whatever he wants!". (This was me in 2015ish with RW, I have changed). But is paying the QB whatever he wants what got us here? Is our success QB driven? I hope JS stays the course but conventional NFL wisdom would say to pay SD top market. We have Drew Lock sitting right there on the bench! Would you rather pay SD $60M/yr or pay Lock $20M/yr and keep stacking players.
Time will tell. NFL always entertaining.
Great comment, Mike McD.
Thank you Charley
We can see the JS philosophy at other positions besides QB, as well. You hit the nail on the head when you said "spread the wealth" and "keep their load light". This is exactly how they are treating the RB situation, too. If he builds a team this way, Seattle becomes a place that players can compete for a Superb Owl while playing fewer snaps and thereby extending their careers. Players that want that type of situation are generally not "me first" type of people and are good teammates. Seems to me like JS has a vision to create a true "family" organization to attract players who want to win like that and he can spread out the money and not rely on just 1 or 2 guys. I love it. It makes for an organization that treats people the right way we can all be proud to be fans of.
No difference b/w SD & GS?
- GS was who he was. An ok QB that had reached his ceiling.
- SD is a QB on the improve, is ok but is still improving and he’s younger.
- GS was a consistent red zone intercept passer.
- SD started the season with some intercepts but has corrected and improved (something GS apparently was incapable of doing).
Sorry, but I just don’t see the comparison. There was always going to be a potential better future with SD. I don’t believe for a second that we’d be playing in the SB if GS was our QB. Thank the gods GS moved on.
Yeah, when you put it this way. I wasn't in love with Geno but he did OK. I wasn't in love with Sam (until he started zinging it in the last Rams game), but he is also OK. And I was very happy to see us move on from Russ at the time - fun to torture the Donkeys
And you're absolutely right about stacking players with a competent QB. I'm happy that Sam doesn't have to be amazing, that the rest of the team can carry
And I think we would have been undefeated with Geno Smith.
Thanks for the comment
Surely you jest and don't call me Shirley !
😂
Like the Raiders are?
I watched every snap of Raiders football this year and it’s been incredible to watch the difference between the Hawks and Raiders.
Just amazing perspective to gain.
I can assure you … the QB is not the difference. There are so many differences up and down management, to roster, to owner that it really makes most individual players irrelevant to the outcome.
It’s been eye opening and a cool year even if the goal was to have fun with Pete and Geno. The result was, wow, this is how bad teams do things.
But yeah, QB not a difference in the two squads.
I can see a possible Geno SB, and agree with your OP mostly, but you can't be serious being undefeated. I kind of agree that SD has shown more growth than Geno, and hopefully grows some more. If he does, do you think JS will offer, let's say $50/year towards the end of this contract? Which would be a bargain given the year over year inflation of the cap?
No I don’t seriously think undefeated … but I say it to counteract what I would consider equally far fetched on the otherside which is not making the playoffs or something like that. The main point really is that this is a great team top to bottom and the QB is a cog in the wheel.
Yes! Me and you are on the same page. If SD plays like did in the NFC championship for most of the year? And raises the floor on his bad games, like he did after the rams game? I think $50M+ is on the table.
Danno said it the other day, there is just a lot of flexibility with what can happen in a year even after a SB win.
By and large, this is a defense and running team and that is how we want to win games.
Just to clarify Mike McD, I never said anything about playoffs. I only said I don’t believe we’d be in the SB if Geno was our QB. I don’t think that is ‘far fetched’. Rather, it’s a reasonable assumption I believe.
Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with you having a different opinion. It’s good that people disagree on things. That’s what makes chats like SJ so entertaining.
I actually agree with much your SD comments.
It was a good move to get him because he is younger and can get better.
I just don’t agree with the idea that SD is the difference
I think this is a great team and it was the 4 years of drafting great coaching and smart acquisitions like tank Lawrence that put this team in the SB
QBs get too much credit and too much blame generally
It's not too hard to imagine an undefeated season for the 'Hawks this year. It's also not hard to imagine losses in week 4 against AZ, wk 6 - Jacksonville, wk 7 - Texas, wk 12 - Tenn., and week 15 against Indi. We could have been 9-8 and out of the playoffs. There really isn't any such thing as an alternate universe, and we really did finish 14-3, and we're in the Super Bowl. Go 'Hawks
EDIT: I overlooked the week 16 win over L.A., which could easily have been a loss. Our Seahawks could have been 8-9, and we'd all be suicidal.
When we brought Sam in what was the narrative? Most people thought he might work out. No one and I mean no one said he would take us to the Super Bowl. Several one year if needed, team friendly contract comments if my memory serves me correctly.
Was this GM that off thinking Sam might be done? Most of us thought the same thing. I’m glad our GM is smarter than me when it comes to football cause the narrative nationally was that Minny had dumped Sam just in time.
In my eyes the Seahawks lucked into getting Sam only because McCarthy got hurt last preseason. Suppose McCarthy didn't get hurt, sucked so bad early on they started Sam and then Sam saves their season. Not a chance in hell is he allowed to leave the building and what happens then? Does JS cave to Geno's demands? Do they start Lock? Oy, I don't even want to contemplate it.
The margins in the NFL are crazy.
All those are 100% true. And if SD plays well in either of his final two games, the Vikings sign him.
Additionally, if Pete Carrol isn't hired for the Raiders does Geno Smith turn down the Seahawks offer? I would doubt it. The Hawks offered him $70M, more than Sam, I think Geno would've taken it had Pete not gotten a job (but I also think the Hawks season would be largely the same, just my opinion)
This could be true but I think their GM would have stuck with JJ regardless. He was a first round qb…they usually don’t get thrown away as yesterdays trash
BUT, he probably sits behind Darnold for another ½ year, year, or until Darnold's contract is up. So, his development is more measured.
Been working in the field of analytics myself for over a decade.
The worst misapplication of it is folks who think that everything can essentially be boiled down to rational statistical analysis or that a good model applies in every situation. To use a model correctly you have to understand what the model accounts for and use your human judgment to decide when to ignore it (or tweak its advice).
If you don’t you risk running things like a D&D character with 20 INT and 1 WIS: the kind of person who analyzes a vampire using medical knowledge and recommends a blood transfusion to cure its “severe anemia” or some shit
I'm a little bit sad that the D&D reference made so much sense to me.
Plus account for assumptions and limitations. As near as I can tell, analytics assume that they are always right and that their model has no limitations.
You are A Stute, Samuel.