Vision Board: Seahawks-Jets

The subtle art of not falling for a trap game

The Seahawks are better than the Jets, but the biggest mistake that Seattle could make would be assuming that recent improvements alone will be good enough to outscore a New York franchise in freefall.

Wrong.

The Jets know what it feels like to salvage a few meaningless threads from a lost season by crushing the dreams of superior teams:

• 12/20/2020: 0-14 Jets beat 9-4 Rams (favored to win by 17.5 points)

• 10/31/2021: Eventual 4-win Jets team beats Joe Burrow’s Bengals months before they almost won the Super Bowl (Bengals favored by 11 points)

• 10/16/2022: Zach Wilson beats future boss Aaron Rodgers (GB favored by 7.5) and a few weeks later takes out Josh Allen (favored by 11 points)

• 12/10/2023: Wilson does it again, this time embarrassing C.J. Stroud’s Texans by a score of 30-6

The Jets have lost 7 of their last 8 (Stroud again failed to show up for a game against the Jets) and as usual are the subject of ridicule, but this only serves to motivate several key people in the organization — especially Rodgers, the king of pettiness — to spoil someone’s season on the way out.

What better subject for a signature win than a Seahawks team back in first place and just starting to feel good about itself, as well as a head coach who people keep calling “the Sean McVay of defense”?

And if that’s still not enough to believe that the Jets are planning to pull out every last stop against Seattle, then swallow one more pill:

This could be Rodgers’ last home game at MetLife Stadium, if not his final game for the Jets period. That could very well also make it Rodgers’ last ever game with Davante Adams, so expect those two to give Seattle every last drop of football that they have left in their tanks.

What must the Seahawks do to guarantee that they aren’t the Jets’ “but at least we beat that team” memory on the schedule?

That’s what the Vision Board’s 3 keys to the game aims to answer.

Outwit: Play Base-Ball

Ryan Grubb has to call his best “rushing game” of the season, the offensive line has to show up (in the debut of new starting right guard Sataoa Laumea, which was the only prediction I did get right), and Kenneth Walker has to punish the Jets if they don’t put an extra player in the box against him.

In other words: Seattle has to dominate the ground game and force the Jets to take a corner off of the field in order to stop Walker.

The “ideal” game against the Jets came three weeks ago, when the Cardinals beat them 31-6 and New York’s -30.3 defensive EPA is as bad as any game by the Seahawks in at least 15 years.

• Kyler Murray went 22-of-24 for 266 yards

• Murray rushed for 2 TD; Trey Benson averaged 6.2 yards per carry

• TE Trey McBride had 71 receiving yards, while RB James Conner had 80

There are many ways to dissect how and why Arizona was so dominant, but the Cardinals’ ripping up the Jets while their defense was in BASE PERSONNEL is as telling as anything else:

Out of 35 plays (10 passes, 25 runs), the Cardinals gained 200 yards (5.7 yards per play), scored two touchdowns, and averaged +0.27 EPA per play.

“What does that mean?” (EPA explained)

The easiest way to put it is that the Cardinals were able to successfully get closer to the end zone on a consistent basis when the Jets were in their base personnel, which typically consists of an extra linebacker instead of an extra cornerback.

No other team has run more than 30 plays against the Jets base defense.

The Cardinals scored twice against New York’s base defense; the Jets have only allowed 3 other touchdowns total in their other 10 games while in their base defense. Maybe other teams haven’t had as much success running the ball early against the Jets as Arizona did, so that’s something Grubb needs to get right this weekend.

Outplay: The Byron Giant

Just the excuse I needed to share this film breakdown of Byron Murphy II’s underrated (albeit limited) reps against the Cardinals last week:

It would be an understatement to say that Byron Murphy’s rookie season is understated due to a lack of statistical reasons to look his way. That doesn’t mean Murphy’s having no impact or that he couldn’t have the highest ceiling of any defensive player to come out of the 2024 draft class.

Just look to the Jets: As a rookie in 2019, Quinnen Williams had 28 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss, and 6 QB hits.

Through eight games this season, Murphy has 24 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, one QB hit, and has shared in one sack. And he’s playing on a defensive line with a lot of talent, so Mike Macdonald doesn’t necessarily need more from Murphy than what he’s getting and his star was always due to rise in 2025.

But if the Seahawks can get a sneak peek of what’s to come by Murphy sacking Rodgers and getting a couple of backfield stuffs (Breece Hall is questionable) on Sunday, that would help make his rookie season contributions a little less under the radar.

Outlast: No second half interceptions

Here are Geno Smith’s splits by quarter:

He’s thrown 4 touchdowns and no interceptions in the second quarter, but eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions in the other three combined.

Easier said:

• The Seahawks dig their own grave

• Climb out of it

• Fall back in

Another thing you may have noticed from those splits is that Geno has been sacked 13 times and lost 99 yards on those plays in the fourth quarter.

The Seahawks need to run the ball well in the first half, but should the game be close or Seattle is trailing, it’s going to come down to protecting the quarterback and executing the passing game — without costly mistakes — in the final 10 minutes.

Here are Geno’s splits based on the score:

And in the red zone, Geno Smith is completing 51% of his attempts with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and inside the 10 he is just 4-of-18 with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

That can be a combination of many factors, including play calling, protection, drops, and poor execution/decisions by Smith.

If the Seahawks want to avoid an embarrassing loss to the Jets in Week 13, then it couldn’t be any simpler:

Don’t do anything embarrassing!

Jay’s Says:

The hero of the week is... Kenneth Walker III. Fabulous name!

The zero of the week is... 41-year-old Jets quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. A couple LA winters ago, we took Seaside Clark to a dog park. There were two other people there and I whispered to SSJ, "Hey... I think that's Aaron Rodgers!" SSJ took one glance and said to me, "No, that's not him." I scoffed because I *know* what Shailene Woodley's boyfriend looks like and he's right here in the dog park with us! I walked over to the trash can where I had a better look and... SSJ was right. That was no Aaron Rodgers. Just some guy with a beard! As we were leaving the dog park, SSJ said to me, "Aaron Rodgers is playing tomorrow. Why would he be here in LA?" I was embarrassed. As it turns out, Aaron Rodgers ended up losing that game... and that game being the 2021 NFC Championship game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers so who's more embarrassed now?

SSJ note: It’s all true!

Seaside Joe 2100