What could go wrong?

3 things that could set the Seahawks back from repeating as Super Bowl champions.

#1 - The defense is great, but not historically great

This is the point that will get the most push back because Seahawks fans remember when Seattle had the number one defense for four years in a row. (And they still only won one Super Bowl.)

And that was with a rotating door at defensive coordinator, whereas now the Seahawks will have the same defensive coordinator for as long as Mike Macdonald chooses to call plays.

I get it: The Seahawks defense could be EVEN BETTER in 2026 than it was in 2025.

• Most of the starters remain in the fold

• The players will be that much more comfortable in the system

• Macdonald has learned more about coaching

• Majority of the defensive starters are 27 and younger

This is like if you’re going into the third season of production on The Office and now the showrunner finally knows what does and doesn’t work about each character, the writing/directing staff understands the assignment, and you’ve trimmed all the fat from the first two seasons.

The first two seasons of The Office are almost a perfect parallel to the first two seasons of Macdonald’s tenure as head coach: From a clear indication of talent in year one to proof of development in year two…but The Office hits a high point in year three.

Maybe that IS what happens to the Seahawks in 2026: The best is yet to come.

But I’m just not the guy who can look at the glass half full and not consider all the other potential ways to think about drinking water.

Seattle’s glass could be full. Or it could be half-full. Or it could be half-empty. Instead of The Office, the next season of Seahawks could be like every season of True Detective after the first one: Unwatchable.

There are just too many examples in history of “perfect setups” going less than perfectly. Especially if the goal is to win the Super Bowl.

2002 Bucs

Everyone agrees that the 2002 Bucs had one of the best all-time defenses. You can say top-10, some would say top-5, but they steamrolled teams in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl and that was with a bad offense.

Monte Kiffin was Jon Gruden’s defensive coordinator for his entire tenure in Tampa Bay but the Bucs never achieved the same level of success that they had together in year one. Tampa’s defensive stars were on the older side, let’s call it “about 29 on average”, but not so old to think that they couldn’t sustain success for a few more years.

As you can see they mostly did, maintaining their status as one of the league’s best defenses. However, to win playoff games with the offense that they had at the time the Bucs needed to be historically great again and they weren’t.

It wasn’t like Brad Johnson and Brian Griese were throwing 25 interceptions per season. Far from it. But the idea that the Bucs defense would “just get better from here” was hardly the case and it would be fair to say that since Gruden and Kiffin were fired the Bucs haven’t had a single great defense.

2000 Ravens

Similarly, most people agree that the 2000 Ravens were at least as good, if not better, than the Bucs a couple of years later. Baltimore was even better than Tampa in the playoffs and they had a worse offense, especially worse at quarterback. And this was not an “almost-30” group: Ray Lewis was 25 and leading a talented group of other players in the 20s like Peter Boulware, Sam Adams, Chris McAlister, Duane Starks, and Jamie Sharper, with Ed Reed added in 2002 and Terrell Suggs in 2003.

Baltimore’s defense was good when what they needed was great and head coach Brian Billick ended up going 1-3 in the playoffs over his last seven seasons with the Ravens following the Super Bowl win. He almost immediately lost defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis, but replacements like Mike Nolan and Rex Ryan were well-respected.

It only made sense for Baltimore’s defense to have at least one more historically great season after 2000, but the closest they came was 2006 and couldn’t win a playoff game with Steve McNair at quarterback.

By the law of regression, Seahawks fans almost have to expect that Seattle’s defense WON’T be as good next season as they were last season:

• If you’re 32nd, you’re probably going to go up

• If you’re 1st, you’re probably going to go down

Not always, of course. The Seahawks ranked 1st on defense in 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. But the logical answer is that Seattle’s defense regressing in 2026 is at least on the table. The Seahawks could be 4th on defense instead of 1st. And 4th is great. Pete Carroll would have KILLED for 4th a few years ago.

But would the Seahawks have beat the Rams the last two times with the 4th defense? Maybe. Maybe not.

That’s where the Super Bowl might only be in reach with #1.

#2 - Brian Fleury changes too much

I choose my words carefully and notice that I said Fleury changes “too much” not just that Fleury changes “a lot”. He can change as much as he feels he needs to in order to separate himself from Klint Kubiak (and Kyle Shanahan) but as soon as fans are using the word “too”, as in believing that he’s gone over the line, Fleury is in trouble.

So far so good, as Fleury has started his Seattle career by emphasizing that he doesn’t think the offense will look much different than Kubiak’s.

From his opening press conference Fleury said all the right things. And the comments by Seahawks fans pretty much represent the most anyone can honestly say about Fleury; which is just that he’s the coach that the Seahawks picked and he knows how to speak English.

Nobody can say yet that:

• “I like Fleury because he runs the ball”

• “I like Fleury because of how he uses tight ends”

• “I like Fleury because he held that player accountable”

At most you can say that you like the Brian Fleury hire because he is the hire. You can like Fleury because Macdonald and John Schneider like Fleury. It’s like when your buddy has recommended three straight good movies in a row and now that person is texting you about Project Hail Mary, you’re probably gonna pay more attention than usual.

Two coordinators ago, Ryan Grubb was disliked for not running the ball enough. At times, Kubiak was criticized for running the ball too much. At the end of the year, Kubiak changed a lot…but not too much.

#3 - Sam Darnold’s support system breaks down

I’d be lying if I said that I watched a lot of Sam Darnold play on the Jets and Panthers, and as fans we tend to dramatically overstate how well we know the quarterbacks of other teams, but it’s easy to separate the quality of supporting cast he had in New York and Carolina compared to Minnesota and Seattle.

I believe that Darnold has improved from 2018-2022 to 2023-2025, however I also believe that he has always had the talent to be a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Even on the Jets. The problem was the Jets.

Given quality investments in the offensive line, All-Pro receivers (Justin Jefferson, JSN), better coaching, better defenses, and a better run game, Darnold is just as capable of winning big games as any other quarterback in the NFL. When that system breaks down however…

Well, former Panthers head coach Matt Rhule said it himself at the end of the 2022 season when Darnold was about to be replaced as Carolina’s quarterback:

“When you have (12) different offensive line combinations, guys getting elevated from the practice squad, guys changing oppositions all those different things, you’re not going to have the unity you want, you’re not going to have the cohesiveness you want,” Rhule said. “We’ve talked about it, you guys have asked about it, we have since the very beginning.

“We’ve had runs where we were able to protect the quarterback and be consistent. But I don’t care who you are at quarterback, if you don’t have a run game, or you don’t have a pretty nice protection game, it’s going to be difficult. I felt when Sam had protection, he was able to complete balls, and made some nice throws. But again, this is a good defense we faced. We knew they were going to put us under duress.”

The Panthers completely ignored these sentiments.

Months later, they traded for Baker Mayfield. When Mayfield was waived and Darnold took the job back in the second half of 2022 he was much better, but Carolina still parted ways with him and traded up for Bryce Young.

It would be easy to use “Sam Darnold reverts to pre-Vikings Darnold” as one of these bulletpoints because we always give too much credit and blame to the quarterback. But I think it goes deeper than that: Did Darnold change or did his support system?

I think he’s always been this good. No matter how good you think Darnold’s “good” is, he probably hasn’t changed as much as the stats imply.

So Seattle needs to keep investing, developing, and adding to his supporting cast in order to avoid the pumpkinfication of Sam Darnold.

A belief in Fleury is one. Extending JSN would be two. The Seahawks have invested in their three best offensive linemen. They’ve re-signed Rashid Shaheed and they didn’t cut Cooper Kupp. Seattle has a pair of talented young tight ends. The Seahawks also retained offensive line coach John Benton.

Movie fans love to debate if you should “separate the art from the artist” but NFL fans love to debate if you should separate the run game from the running back. Seattle’s going to be a great test case for that in 2026.

Every piece would seem to be in place for next season except at running back, but paying Kenneth Walker III could have cost them Shaheed or doing something else.

Sam Darnold is good enough to win multiple Super Bowls and as we’ve seen with Troy Aikman that alone could put a quarterback in our faces for decades to come. But he’s not good enough to do it on his own. Seattle’s offense has put a lot of eggs into the Jaxon Smith-Njigba basket because I really don’t know where Darnold would turn if he missed a game or two. The Seahawks might need to make another investment at receiver in the draft because in this case you rather would have “too much” than too little.

Just ask the Jets.

Seaside Joe 2567