Sea Thoughts
As I expected, teams are starting to become open to the idea of trading franchise quarterbacks before they’re actually done being “franchise quarterbacks”. We’ve seen this with Matthew Stafford already and it seems as though I’m one of the few people who actually see this as a groundbreaking move.
“Well, the Lions suck, Stafford’s running out of time, it all makes sense!”
You’re right, it does all make sense. For today’s NFL, the Stafford trade made sense. For the NFL of not-long-ago, it would have been outrageous. Stafford is essentially the same age as Russell Wilson. You don’t see any Seahawks fans saying that it would be “business as usual” if Seattle trades Wilson, and the reasons for that go beyond the fact that the Seahawks are good and the Lions are bad.
Every NFL team hopes to be “Super Bowl competitive” within the next three years. Every. NFL. Team. Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell didn’t get the Lions jobs because they said, “Things are gonna be bright in 2027!” No, the Lions need to get to the playoffs by 2023, and having Stafford around for the latest rebuild gives them greater odds of doing that than simply relying on a terrible 2021 season and a number one pick in 2022.
Yes, Detroit has two extra first round picks now. They also have the albatross of Jared Goff’s contract and those picks are likely to be borderline second rounders.
Matthew Stafford would have given the Lions greater odds of getting back to the playoffs by 2023. He might have even given them a chance to reach the postseason by this year — yes, by this year — if Aaron Rodgers is indeed dealt to an AFC team.
And because of the Stafford trade, it is even more likely that Rodgers will be traded. Wilson, as hard as it is to accept today, could be on another team by next year. He really could be and the Stafford trade needs to have way more attention for being the first domino to fall (maybe others could be argued, like Tom Brady’s free agency, for example) in that process.
So if teams are thinking outside-of-the-box with QB trades, what about other positions?
A Seasider brought up the idea to me the other day of trading DK Metcalf. The Seasider wasn’t necessarily pitching it as a “good” idea, but it is right to raise the question and to entertain the possibility with any player. You’d think that would be at least double the case for your most valuable assets.
Teams almost never trade valuable assets in the NFL, other than draft picks, but it does happen sometimes. And the going rate for premium players who are 26 or younger seems to be around two first round picks.
Jalen Ramsey, Laremy Tunsil (plus a second), Jamal Adams, and Khalil Mack are the names that immediately stand out. The teams not only received multiple high draft picks, they also got the comfort of knowing they didn’t need to pay those players $15-$25 million per season. Could the Seahawks get two first round picks right now for DK Metcalf?
I think so.
When the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs last year, they only received one first round pick, but they also got a fourth, fifth, and sixth, while sending over a seventh to the Bills. The result was that Buffalo got the player who led the NFL in catches and yards in 2020.
But Diggs was coming off of a campaign in which he gained 1,130 yards on 63 catches and he was 26. Last year was his sixth season in the league.
Metcalf is coming off of a campaign with 1,303 yards on 83 catches with 10 touchdowns. He will only be turning 24 in December. Metcalf’s 10 touchdowns in 2020 is more than Diggs has ever had in a single season, including last season. Diggs was a first team all-pro in 2020.
Metcalf might become the best receiver in the NFL in 2021, and he’ll be a year shy of his 25th birthday.
Seattle has pretty well committed to the trio of Tyler Lockett, Metcalf, and D’Wayne Eskridge over at least the next two years. Lockett was extended and Metcalf has two more years on his rookie deal. His next contract, if he builds on what he did last season, will become the richest for a receiver in NFL history. He could be looking at $22-$24 million per season. We’ll see what Davante Adams gets next year (or this year, if extended) and Adams, 28, is not as good as Metcalf.
That’s how fucking nuts things could get with DK.
So any trade idea with Metcalf at this point would have to begin with two first round picks. The Falcons might be willing to accept a second rounder for Julio Jones eventually, but if Jones was 23 again, he’d be in the same boat as Metcalf.
I’m not saying Metcalf doesn’t have things to work on, but that’s kind of the point. A less-than-ready Metcalf is already putting up some of the best numbers in the NFL. And I’m not sure that two late first round picks, assuming he’d go to a good team, would be worth it to the Seahawks.
What’s Metcalf worth in trade? That’s a difficult question to answer because it is somewhat unprecedented. That’s why it won’t happen, but 2022 could be a different story. As we’ve seen, times are changing.
A24 Thoughts
Every day in June, I’m sharing a movie I watched from the production company A24. These are all available on Showtime.
The Hole in the Ground (2019)
Horror - Finland - Creepy Kids - “Borrowing” from a myriad of other horror films
Did I like it? No. The 83% RT score is way-fucking-off for me. The 5.7 IMDb rating tells a more accurate picture. If you’ve never seen a horror movie, you might like it.