What is Jake Bobo worth?

Is Bobo worth as much to the Seahawks as he is worth to the Jaguars?

The Seahawks have three more days to match the two-year offer sheet that the Jaguars signed Jake Bobo to on Friday, and if Seattle opts to let him go then the only thing they get in return is Less Bobo.

I can’t imagine that this decision is anything more than a snap decision by John Schneider—how could the Seahawks have not already known what they’re prepared to pay him?—but I guess they could take the entire five days. So then the question that Seahawks fans probably want the answer to is:

What is Jake Bobo worth?

Jacksonville set the bar: $4.5 million GUARANTEED over two years, $5.5 million total, $1.5 million more in incentives for a max value of $7 million.

That’s what Jacksonville is prepared to pay for Bobo, but a “good idea” in Florida is not necessarily going to work anywhere else.

What is Bobo worth?

Do you know who Chris Hogan is? The name might be familiar, perhaps you could even say what team he’s most known for playing for (more likely if you are an avid fantasy football player), but I doubt that most people have Hogan at top of mind when they’re quizzed on who the most impactful playoff receivers are over the past decade.

Hogan not only won two Super Bowls with the Patriots (2016, 2018) but he also caught four playoff touchdowns from Tom Brady and led the NFL in yards per touch in consecutive postseasons (2016-2017).

How did Hogan’s New England career begin?

The Patriots signed the 29-year-old Hogan to a three-year, $12 million offer sheet in 2016 after he had spent three seasons with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills declined to match.

Hogan, once an undrafted player out of Monmouth, was not a phenomenal regular season player either before or after he joined the Patriots. He had averaged 38 catches for 438 yards in the two seasons prior to signing with New England. Then he averaged 35 catches for 550 yards in three years with the Patriots.

However, Brady and Bill Belichick loved Hogan and because of how that offense was setup at the time, throwing more passes to running back James White than any other player on the roster except for Julian Edelman, Hogan almost never came off of the field. Hogan was an 80-90% snaps receiver on an offense that didn’t throw the ball to outside receivers.

For what New England needed at receiver, Chris Hogan was the perfect fit. Because the Patriots “perfect fit” wasn’t what the 31 other teams thought of as a starting receiver they only had to pay him $4 million per season.

In the 2016-2018 playoffs, Hogan played a significant role on three Super Bowl teams in three years.

Most people don’t think of Chris Hogan when they think of the most valuable receivers in the 2010s NFL playoffs, or even when they think of the 2016-2018 NFL playoffs, but didn’t Hogan prove that’s exactly what he was for the Patriots?

You can not separate the term “value” from “relative value”. They go hand-in-hand. One person’s idea of a dream car is Porsche 911, something that’s expensive and considered a flashy status symbol, whereas another person’s dream car is whatever gets the best gas mileage and has six cup holders…or more.

Bobo might be your “cup holder” wide receiver, but is he as valuable to the Seahawks as he is to the Jaguars?

Bobo’s resume

The first reason that I thought of bringing up Hogan is simple: Jake Bobo caught two passes in the regular season and then he caught two passes in the playoffs, including a critical touchdown against the Rams in the NFC Championship game. It’s impossible to separate Seattle’s Super Bowl run from Bobo’s contributions.

But it is also impossible to separate the Super Bowl win from the Super Bowl MVP and yet the Seahawks moved on from Kenneth Walker III over money.

Bobo snap counts:

• 2023: 304

• 2024: 319

• 2025: 117 (missed six games, but this only partly explains it)

After playing in 29% of the snaps with Shane Waldron and Ryan Grubb, Bobo’s playing time on offense dropped to 17% with Klint Kubiak. To what degree new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury felt that Bobo would come in handy could potentially always remain a mystery but we also know that the receiver personnel from last season hasn’t really changed.

The Seahawks return Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, Tory Horton, and Cody White. The only guaranteed loss is Dareke Young, who followed Kubiak to Las Vegas and got a one-year, $1.8 million contract.

This is important too when considering Bobo’s value:

Young also caught two passes in the regular season, he had more yards (48) and first downs (2) than Bobo, and it is also impossible to not think of Young’s contributions when you re-live Seattle’s Super Bowl run.

The difference is that Young’s critical play came on special teams. Young also had more special teams snaps than Bobo, 156 to 134, although Bobo missed six games so this explains some of the disparity. Young is a year younger than Bobo, a significantly better athlete, and he had a more visibly apparent good season on special teams.

So how did we get to the point where Bobo got $4.5 million fully guaranteed and Young only got $800,000?

It might simply come down to contractual situations.

The Raiders signed Dareke Young as an unrestricted free agent.

They didn’t have to overpay to deter another team from signing Young. They could simply make the best offer and know that it is the best offer.

The Jaguars signed Jake Bobo as a restricted free agent.

Meaning that Jacksonville is attempting to deter Seattle from keeping Bobo. The contract numbers had to be something that would make Schneider balk at the idea of paying the team’s WR5 a contract like he’s a … Well, to be honest there are no veteran WR3 player who make this little but also no WR4/5 players who make this much.

It’s a situation we have rarely seen since Chris Hogan. Which is also not entirely fair … to Chris Hogan.

Saturday’s newsletter: What will Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon make on their extensions after getting the 5th-year options?

I’m going to finally say the thing now that no Seahawks fan wants to hear.

Jake Bobo is not that enticing

IT COULD MAKE PERFECT SENSE FOR THE SEAHAWKS TO KEEP BOBO BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY WE AREN’T TALKING ABOUT THAT MUCH MONEY RELATIVE TO THE SALARY CAP.

Sorry about the ALL CAPs but I really want to make it clear that if Seattle matches the offer for Jake Bobo, I’m all for it. At worst, I’m not against it.

Fans can support matching the offer for Bobo while at the same time also acknowledge that the Jaguars overpaid and that the Seahawks will be overpaying if they pay $5.5 million for a special teamer who isn’t even Seattle’s best special teamer:

I don’t know where Bobo would rank on the special teams anymore because Brady Russell is a clear #1 and Bobo only had the 11th-most special teams snaps of any non-specialist (K, P, LS) on the roster. He wasn’t that active on special teams or offense.

When I brought up Hogan earlier, there were a number of good reasons for it but none of them had to do with why either receiver made the NFL as an undrafted free agent and then played a role on a Super Bowl champion.

-Hogan was considered a premier athlete/Bobo is considered a bad athlete

-Hogan was WR2 or WR3 on the Bills/Bobo didn’t see the field last season

Snaps wise, it’s not even close. The Patriots signed Hogan to an offer sheet when he was already playing 70-90% of the snaps for the Bills, presumably as a blocker who could also stretch the field and catch passes occasionally. Bobo was getting 10-20% of the snaps last season.

The Patriots were signing Hogan as a receiver they expected to start. I don’t really know what the Jaguars expect of Bobo, but it has to be MORE than what the Seahawks would expect of him if they match the offer.

So if we’re John Schneider and we’re writing down a list of reasons to not match, this is what we could come up with:

• Bobo turns 28 in August

• Bobo’s 4.99 40-yard dash, even if slowed down by weather, probably wasn’t that much better

• Bobo won’t surpass Seattle’s top-4 receivers, when all of them are healthy

• Bobo is not the team’s top special teamer

Signing Bobo also guarantees that someone like Ricky White III or Cody White practically already knows that they won’t make the roster unless there’s an injury. If Seattle drafts a wide receiver, well where does that player fit in? JSN, Kupp, Shaheed, and Horton aren’t going anywhere, so Bobo makes five. If the teams keep six receivers, so what? That sixth receiver is never going to see the field.

As things currently stand, Jake Bobo will rarely see the field for the Seahawks.

Presumably Jacksonville sees an opportunity for Bobo despite having Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, Travis Hunter, and Parker Washington. It could be that Hunter will almost exclusively play defense and/or Thomas is going to be traded, but it seems like the Jaguars feel Bobo could get more targets there than he would get with the Seahawks.

His incentives are based on production. Numbers he will almost surely not reach in Seattle:

And I would assume they’re probably right about that.

Why match the offer?

Because it’s 0.6% of the salary cap.

Quite simply the Seahawks could match the offer because it’s not very much money and maybe they just want Bobo to be a Seahawk for as long as possible. Perhaps for his entire career. Seattle could feel like with Kupp’s age and Shaheed’s lack of offensive production in 2025 and Horton’s injury history that Bobo shouldn’t feel too despondent about his chances to become a vital offensive player.

What if his lack of snaps in 2025 was a fluke?

What if Fleury thinks that Bobo is a better fit for his offensive style than Kubiak felt he was last season?

What if Schneider thinks that the glimpse we got of Bobo catching a touchdown pass from Sam Darnold was a sign that the Seahawks messed up by not giving him more opportunities in the regular season?

For 0.6% of the salary cap is it worth keeping a player who you’ve already invested three years into?

As we’ve established with Chris Hogan, sometimes value goes beyond raw data. But from the same example, sometimes teams still don’t match those offer sheets when they know that they really like the player.

What will the Seahawks do with Jake Bobo?

I don’t know. It could go either way because the fact is that is significantly more money than teams pay for receivers who had 2 catches and barely over 100 snaps on either offense or special teams. He’s almost 28 and he’s not a good athlete for being an NFL receiver. Yet Bobo could make up to $7 million over the next two years. That’s WILD.

There’s got to be a reason for it though and I always go back to what his college coaches said about him at both Duke and UCLA which is that Jake Bobo is “the best practicer” they had ever had.

This is like the “heck of a guy” endorsement.

Do you pay $2.75-$3.5 million per season for a heck of a guy?

We are in an era where this feels like not a lot of money even though it’s more money than many of us will see in a lifetime. Then again it’s a lot of money when compared to the next undrafted free agent version of Jake Bobo, a yet-to-be-named prospect who could have the exact same role as Bobo next year but be five years younger and cost the minimum.

That player, who you couldn’t possibly name today but could easily exist in our headspace by August, would also become just as beloved as the last “heck of a guy”.

I think the most Seahawks thing to do would be to not match the offer, simply because that’s what the financially-focused franchise would do.

However, if the Seahawks do match the offer that also makes sense. Largely due to the fact that although Seattle’s wide receiver room is too deep for Bobo today, three of the four receivers ahead of him carry red flags as to their 17-game availability next season. Plus, it’s not as though Bobo and Shaheed actually play the same position.

This is more of how Bobo backs up Kupp and Horton, to some degree, so that’s where his role looks a little bit more VALUABLE than at a glance.

You can never be sure what’s a “cup holder” until you try balancing or jamming a cup into it. Maybe your car has more than what the manuel says.

Are you matching the offer? Let me know:

Seaside Joe 2574