When will draft analysts start acknowledging that the NFL is overrating first round quarterbacks?
Seaside Joe 867
QB Thoughts
If you’ve been following my draft coverage at this blog, then you might recall that I recently pointed out that PFF releases multiple 2022 draft boards as “their prospect rankings” even though each list conflicts and contradicts the next. There isn’t any consistency, it just seems to be a way to get page hits that day. Not that there are any “lies” told or that they’re doing anything immoral, it’s just a point of fact and worth acknowledging if you are using PFF’s draft boards for any reason.
That PFF draft board might look a lot different than the next or their next 2022 mock draft.
In today’s version of a new PFF draft board, Mike Renner published PFF’s “preseason top 50 NFL draft prospects” on Wednesday and the first thing I noticed was that there were four quarterbacks in the top-20: Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell, Malik Willis, and Kedon Slovis. One more quarterback, Carson Strong, cracked the list by ranking 37th.
We’ve now reached the point in NFL history where nobody finds this strange … and I find that to be strange!
If four quarterbacks are drafted in the first round in 2022, then it means that we’ve now seen 13 first round quarterbacks in a three-year span. Does that not seem odd to you? Because it should seem odd to you. There are only 32 teams. And using a first round pick on a quarterback used to mean that you were making that player your franchise player.
If more than one-third of the NFL is drafting a “Franchise QB” every three years, then it means that you could basically field an entire 32 starters in only about seven years worth of first rounds. But knowing that there are players like Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and now Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and so on, it means that there might only be about 20 teams that are actually drafting those quarterbacks and shuffling them around until they luck into their own Mahomes or Allen.
The Jets drafted Sam Darnold in 2018, then Zach Wilson in 2021.
The Cardinals drafted Josh Rosen in 2018, then Kyler Murray in 2019.
The Bears drafted Mitchell Trubisky in 2017, then Justin Fields in 2021.
The Texans drafted Deshaun Watson in 2017, and possibly will draft a QB early in 2022.
Washington drafted RGIII in 2012, then Dwayne Haskins in 2019, and probably another QB in 2022.
The Dolphins drafted Ryan Tannehill in 2012, then Tua Tagovailoa in 2020, and they might dip again in 2022.
The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert in 2011, then Blake Bortles in 2014, then Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
It did not used to be like this. Teams used to draft quarterbacks in the first round a lot less frequently, trusting themselves to find solutions at the position by other avenues (and some teams still do: the Titans replaced Marcus Mariota via trade for Tannehill, the Bucs replaced Jameis Winston by signing Tom Brady, the Rams moved Jared Goff in favor of a trade for Matthew Stafford), and they instead spent those picks on other positions to build up the strength of the entire roster.
What intrigues me about PFF Mike’s top-50 (and the many, many, many big boards and mock drafts that will mirror it because this industry lacks originality) is that draft analysts have also come to overrate quarterback prospects and that could be the vicious cycle that fluctuates between the league and the media: that there’s a belief that if you draft a quarterback in the first round that he will automatically transfer his skills to the pro level and become a franchise player.
Except that there is absolutely no evidence to support that narrative.
People who disagree with me will say that because of things like “better training” and “QB programs that start in middle school” and “proper diet, exercise, coaching, analytics, and sports science” and “pro style offenses in college” (which isn’t true?) that there actually are more quarterbacks who are WORTHY of getting drafted in the first round. That it has nothing to do with draft analysts and teams overrating QBs and everything to do with the advanced nature of QB development.
BULL.
SHIT.
The number of first round QBs per decade has nearly doubled since the 1980s and yet the number of quality first round QBs per decade seems to be going down.
In the 1980s, there were 18 quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Of those 18, four became Hall of Famers (Aikman, Elway, Kelly, Marino), while five or six others became serviceable or decent, like Ken O’Brien, Vinny Testaverde, and Jim McMahon.
In the 1990s, there were 20 quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Of those 20, the only Hall of Famer has been (and will continue to only be) Peyton Manning. Amongst the other 19, you can find Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, and a couple of players who reached the Super Bowl (Dilfer, Collins), but it’s not a great group.
Klingler, Maddox, McGwire, Marinovich, McNown, Couch, Akili, Leaf, Mirer, Shuler… It’s not a great group.
In the aughts, there were 26 quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Of those 26, it sure seems like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger will reach the Hall of Fame, while Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Matt Ryan can make an argument built around classic accolades like Pro Bowls and Super Bowls. Remove those five from the equation and we are left with 21 quarterbacks — more than either of the previous two decades en total — and many of them are completely regrettable, with Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford on the high end and JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Matt Leinart, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and some others on the other end.
Now, how many first round quarterbacks do you think we saw in the 2010s? Because in the eighties, it was 18. In the nineties, it was 20. And in the aughts, it was 26.
In the 10s, we saw 30 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
And so far in the first two years of the 20s, we’ve seen nine quarterbacks selected in the first round. Nine! That’s half as many as the entire eighties, but the eighties still had four LEGENDARY first round quarterbacks. We only saw one legendary first round QB in the nineties, and maybe only one in the aughts, so what has gone so wrong for the NFL that even when they nearly double the number of first round QBs, the return is somehow worse?
Over the previous decade, here are the QBs who went first overall: Bradford, Newton, Luck, Winston, Goff, Mayfield, and Murray.
I’ll argue that none of them are building Hall of Fame resumes. It’s a definite no on Bradford, Luck, Winston, and Goff, and a super probable “no” for Cam Newton. Mayfield and Murray are only getting started but do they resemble other Hall of Fame QBs early in their careers? I don’t think so.
The QBs who went second overall: RGIII, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky.
The QBs who went third overall: Bortles, Darnold
Other top-10 QBs: Danny Jones, Josh Allen, Locker, Tannehill, Gabbert, Mahomes, Rosen.
To recap the top-tens of the 10s, we have one of those examples of an immediate Hall of Famer (Mahomes), a guy who seems headed into a really positive direction (Allen) and neither of them went in the top-six. It took 30 first round picks to find these two players and I’m judging Josh Allen off of one good season.
There were 20 quarterbacks taken in the top-10 (more than the entire first round in the 80s and the same as the number of first round QBs in the 90s) and 15 of those players have already failed to make it to their 30s with the team that drafted them — which I consider a low bar for a top-10 pick. The only QBs who I can’t include are Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Allen, Mahomes, and Daniel Jones.
The only safe assumptions in that group to have long careers with the teams that spent first round picks on them are Allen and Mahomes.
Nobody else finds that odd or interesting?
While the narrative has somehow focused on this false premise that there are actually more high-quality QB prospects, I think everyone should instead focus on the thesis that NFL teams are wasting more first round picks on quarterbacks than ever before. We should be talking about how draft analysts are OVERRATING quarterbacks based on a few ideas:
People love hype and hype sells. “There are no first round QBs this year” does not sell well. A bunch of people are talking about Justin Fields even though in nine out of every 10 years, we shouldn’t even be talking about four quarterbacks going in the first round. The number four QB is only interesting to talk about if he’s been forced into the top-15 of the draft. Nobody is talking about Kyle Trask really. I mean, few people even seem to be talking about Mac Jones. Which is inevitable too — the more first round QBs there are, the less special the label becomes.
People love to believe that they’re “first” on a QB prospect, so at this stage, it doesn’t hurt to list as many of them as you can. Renner had five in his top-50, but there are many others (Desmond Ridder, Michael Penix, Matt Corral, Brock Purdy) who you will hear mentioned with “first round” in the next eight months or whatever.
People love sharing shit on social media and sharing clips of a QB doing something exciting increases the odds that it will be retweeted and liked. Fans like QBs more than any other position. They seem to believe that they “understand” what a good play is from a QB and so to see a phenomenal throw or a mind-blowing scramble — one play out of maybe 500 that season — and to tweet that out, it seems like that increases the hype train considerably. It is easy to build a highlight reel off of nearly any top-30 college quarterback. You only need to maybe find like 10 good plays from the entire season. Just ignore the ugly plays. Ignore the red flags. Ignore anything that isn’t positive. There, now you’ve created a first round QB out of thin air.
People love “first round QBs” and “franchise QBs” so people don’t want to hear your thoughts on the draft’s second-best center prospect. Tell me that there are more QBs to be excited about!
In 2017, Trubisky, Mahomes, and Watson made it in the top-12.
In 2018, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, and Rosen made it in the top-10.
In 2019, Murray, Jones, and Haskins made it in the top-15.
In 2020, Burrow, Tagovailoa, and Herbert made it in the top-6.
In 2021, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones made it in the top-15.
In the last five years, that’s 18 quarterbacks who went in the top-15. You can talk about how it’s “amazing that there are so many great QBs coming into the league now!” But I will talk about how it’s “amazing that so many teams are following this extremely dumb narrative that there are so many great QBs coming into the league now.”
It used to be that four-out-of-18 first round quarterbacks could become four of the greatest NFL players we’ve ever seen. Dan Marino. Jim Kelly. John Elway. All of those guys went in the same draft and that’s why 1983 is so historic — not only did the first round contain three of the greatest to ever do it, but even the hit rate back then was only 50-percent because Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason, and Ken O’Brien also went in the first round that year — but now drafting that many quarterbacks early is just … accepted.
Not only is it accepted, it’s encouraged.
If we see 40 first round quarterbacks in the 2020s — that’s actually lower than the rate we are headed for — then I don’t think it will be good for the draft or for football. There are not that many quarterbacks entering the NFL who are worthy. If we were talking about a lot of hits, that would be one story, but all the league has done has added to the total number of busts.
I am quite sure that five of the best 15 prospects this year were not quarterbacks.
I am just as certain that four of the best 20 next year are not quarterbacks.
It is rarely, if ever, that way.