Where do the top 2022 NFL Draft QB prospects rank in EPA/pass?
A clue into next year's QB draft class, from Grayson McCall to Desmond Ridder
For the first time this season I did not post a QB top-10 ranking last week, mostly because I ran out of time after creating my first two 2022 NFL Mock Drafts. But it also gives us a little time to breathe on those rankings and to not over-analyze every game, so I will rest it for at least another week.
In lieu of this week’s QB rankings (go read the most recent), I instead present something very simple: here’s where each of the top 2022 NFL Draft QB prospect’s teams rank in EPA per pass attempt, courtesy of cfb-graphs (lowest to highest):
83. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Despite being fourth overall in EPA, Cincinnati’s biggest weakness has been in the passing game. The second-worst weakness isn’t even close. I like Ridder, but maybe a better fit as a day three backup than a franchise cornerstone.
70. Sam Howell, UNC
He came into his college career with a lot of hype, he even lived up to it for a little while, but Howell’s season has tanked his draft stock from being considered almost the closest thing to a first round lock to probably returning to school for another year. Then again, he’s had at least 10 rushing attempts in every game and has four times run for over 98 yards. Maybe a team will be fine with the development route but North Carolina’s passing offense is bad despite a great season by WR Josh Downs.
55. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Eight interceptions in his last three starts.
47. Tanner McKee, Stanford
This isn’t all on McKee, but McKee had three picks against ASU two weeks ago.
43. Carson Strong, Nevada
25. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
Some of the positive EPA also has to go to Caleb Williams, so Rattler is even lower.
24. Malik Willis, Liberty
He was probably much higher two weeks ago, prior to throwing six interceptions in the most recent two games. Willis has also rushed for almost 400 yards in the last three games, with five touchdowns. Teams might not worry as much about the picks.
23. Jayden Daniels, ASU
22. Brennan Armstrong, Virginia
20. Kenny Pickett, Pitt
Not going to tell a fib, this is lower than I expected.
16. Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky
It’s been an unreal turnaround for the Hilltoppers and WR Jerrett Sterns leads the nation in virtually every key category by a lot.
14. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
Despite cutting down on his turnovers (14 TD, 1 INT), it’s not a top-10 passing season for Corral. I’m just pointing that out because that’s how underwhelmed people should feel about the 2022 draft class if Corral is considered first or second. The rushing touchdowns don’t do a lot for me. Sam Darnold can rush for touchdowns.
5. Tanner Mordecai, SMU
He’s not in my top-ten but Mordecai is certainly in my top-ten of last names. And hey, why not in quarterbacks? Former Oklahoma recruit, he has 26 touchdowns (but seven interceptions) in six games with 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt. Maybe he turns it on even more in 2022 and gets reconsidered for the draft. Maybe sooner.
1. Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina
What? You were expecting someone different?
Oh…it’s not even close. Coastal is the .846…
