We need to be honest about the Seahawks' talent level before the draft starts
Seaside Joe 1119: Seattle is in the middle of a rebuild, not the beginning
Examples of not shooting the messenger:
Old Testament 2, Samuel 1 - An Amalekite escapes battle to tell David that the Israelite king Saul is dead. David orders his men to kill the Amalekite. “For David had said to him, “Your blood be on your own head. Your own mouth testified against you when you said, ‘I killed the LORD’s anointed.’”
Antigone by Sophocles (446 BC) - ”So here I stand--as unwelcome as unwilling, well I wot; for no man delights in the bearer of bad news.”
Antony and Cleopatra by Shakespeare (1608) - A messenger tells Cleopatra that Antony is married to Octavia. Cleopatra: “Horrible villain! or I’ll spurn thine eyes like balls before me; I’ll unhair thy head: thou shalt be whipp’d with wire, and stew’d in brine, smarting in lingering pickle.” (Translation: You’re fucked.) Messenger: “Gracious madam, I that do bring the news made not the match.” (Translation: Well, this is a raw deal.)
This is Sparta (300): This is Sparta:
Please keep these cautionary tales in mind before you shave and pickle me for telling you what I’m about to tell you about the direful situation of the Seattle Seahawks.
They are easily the worst team in the NFC West.
They are arguably the worst team in the NFC.
The AFC is much better than the NFC.
Hopefully writing this in a Seahawks newsletter hasn’t driven any of you away yet—Seattle may be in a bad movie right now but I am more optimistic about the direction of the team today than I was six weeks ago, six months ago, or a year ago—but if your blood is boiling I ask that you read the rest of what I have to say. If you still disagree, well, then… This is Sparta, after all.
In the wake of Russell Wilson’s trade to the Denver Broncos, I was shocked to learn that many Seahawks fans believed that the team had been in contention in recent years and that they would be in contention in 2022.
This is in stark contrast to how I’ve viewed Seattle in recent years. In 2019, the Seahawks reached five straight seasons without advancing past the divisional round of the playoffs and by then I was coming to terms with the fact that a foundational change was necessary before the franchise could ever get back to being the dominant force that it was in the early Wilson years.
The 2020 and 2021 seasons were merely formalities that led to that integral structural reformation of the Seahawks, moving Wilson for a hefty return of draft picks and young(ish) players with cheap(ish) contracts. At no point during the 12-4 season or the 2021 offseason did I believe that Pete Carroll and Wilson were going back to the Super Bowl.
Now in possession of potential building blocks for the future of the roster, I’m beginning to feel hopeful again.
As I told Rob Staton on our recent podcast chat, this is not the beginning of Seattle’s rebuild. It’s the middle. The rebuild doesn’t start when a team trades the franchise quarterback; a rebuild begins when the first domino falls that eventually leads to trading the franchise quarterback. Call it “trading Max Unger for Jimmy Graham” or “losing the Legion of Boom” if you want. Whatever the answer, the Seahawks have been mediocre for a lot longer than one season and they will get even worse before they get better.
The Seattle Seahawks are in contention today to be the worst team in the NFL in 2022.
That is as true today as it was when people were asking, “WHY would you trade Russ?” and “Go get Matt Ryan!”
The Atlanta Falcons are also in contention to become the NFL’s next “worst team;” and even then, Seattle may have been a downgrade for Ryan. It doesn’t appear that the general aura around the Seahawks has yet turned to acceptance of being abominable, otherwise why would anyone endorse torturing a 38-year-old quarterback like Matt Ryan behind an offensive line of Stone Forsythe and Austin Blythe? Why flirt with the idea of adding any quarterback to the roster who doesn’t come cheap enough to do the things that the Seahawks need to do in order to be contending again in 2023 or 2024?
Such as being able to afford more attainable players of value at other positions (Uchenna Nwosu, Noah Fant, an extension for DK Metcalf, potentially any offensive tackles who can at least hold up a mattress) and not giving anyone any false pretenses about the actual distance between the teams at the top and the 2022 Seahawks.
The people at the top are the Rams, Packers, and Bucs. The guy in the blue shirt is Pete Carroll. The phone is the 2016-2022 Seahawks.
At least you wanna be the guy going for the phone.
You can’t just sit there lying to everyone else, “Yeah, I can still make calls. Yeah, I can still send texts. There’s a phone in my hand. I have my phone. No problems with the phone.”
Acceptance is the first step.
QB4
The Seattle Seahawks have QB4 in the NFC West (Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Lock) and that’s even knowing that the Rams are the only team even set at the position today. I expect Murray to return to the Arizona Cardinals and to be better than Lock. I expect that even if Lance’s first season as a starter goes rough, that his odds of being an offensive threat next season are much greater than Lock’s.
You might expect something different. That’s your right. I think at the time that the Seahawks acquired Drew Lock, I was higher on him as being the potential starter than the narrative at the time, which was that he was a throw-in player set to serve as a backup to some grand acquisition.
Just accept that your expectations for Lock and the Seahawks may be impacted by your need for ‘hope’ at times like these.
For, as a study published last week in the journal PLOS ONE reports, National Football League (NFL) fans collectively believe their favorite teams are going to win more than 300 games this season — a statistical impossibility.
The reason for these unrealistic expectations is a psychological phenomenon known as optimism bias. It’s the tendency of people to overestimate the likelihood of experiencing a positive outcome and to underestimate the likelihood of experiencing a negative one.
It’s one thing to say that you believe in Drew Lock or a rookie selection like Malik Willis or Matt Corral. But what if I said this to you: Bet me your car that Drew Lock will be better than Kyler Murray next season. Bet me your car that Lock will be better than Lance or a surprise Garoppolo return.
Hell, bet me your car that Drew Lock will go the entire year without getting benched.
There are some scary situations at quarterback around the NFC today: Marcus Mariota in Atlanta, Jameis Winston’s return to New Orleans, Sam Darnold continuing to sit as QB1 in Carolina, Jared Goff’s round two in Detroit, a fourth season of Daniel Jones with the Giants, and a new coaching staff in charge of trying to make Justin Fields into a pro quarterback in Chicago. Plus Jalen Hurts, Carson, Wentz, and Kirk Cousins.
But I’ve got no qualms in saying that Lock is at least nominated for being the worst “starting quarterback” in the NFL as of March.
No, Baker Mayfield wouldn’t move the needle by much. And we’re not dealing in hypotheticals: Lock is QB1 and the options to upgrade are a) limited, b) underwhelming, and c) moot with a bad roster around the position.
I see massive swaths of fans and media now who dedicate their entire fandom to the belief that EVERYTHING starts with having a good quarterback in place. Everything. If we put blinders on and focus on the QB, there’s no debate to be had: Seattle is a bottom-five team under those parameters.
Now here comes the part that you’re going to really hate: Not even Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes would help this roster make a playoff run. If they’d even get to the playoffs.
Supporting Offensive Cast
Ignoring a running backs comparison (because running backs come and go so fast these days and I’d say that Rashaad Penny’s upside to be elite is counterbalanced by his likelihood to be sidelined; same as many other backs in the league today) and looking at the rest of the NFC’s offenses…
Any advantage that Seattle thinks they have with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf at receiver is offset by these realities:
Cooper Kupp was just paired with Allen Robinson
Deebo Samuel is actually paired with George Kittle, not only Brandon Aiyuk
A healthy DeAndre Hopkins could give the Cardinals the best receiver in the division
Around the conference, other duos include Mike Evans, Chris Godwin; CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup; Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen; and some talented 1s like Terry McLaurin, Michael Thomas, D.J. Moore, and DeVonta Smith.
The Seahawks have two great receivers. A lot of teams also have that, but they complement them with good quarterbacks, offensive lines, and tight ends.
Offensive Line
The Seahawks have the worst tackles in the NFL and that’s indisputable. I don’t expect Duane Brown to re-sign. I could see it more with Brandon Shell. Signing Brown would be a huge upgrade from what we expect of Stone Forsythe, but Brown is turning 37 soon. Signing Shell wouldn’t do much to change my expectations for the Seahawks at all, if any. I think the only reasonable guess for how many games Shell plays in next season is set around 10.
Seattle’s expectations for Blythe remind me of the expectations people had for Gerald Everett a year ago. I’ll leave it at that.
The other NFC West centers are Alex Mack, Rodney Hudson, and the Rams re-signed Brian Allen to a long-term contract a year after they thought it easy to walk away from Blythe.
The Seahawks guards are okay. The Seahawks guards are okay.
From a macro view of the NFC and NFL, I believe right now Seattle probably sits around 30th in starting QB, around 30th in offensive line, and a tight end duo of Will Dissly and Noah Fant only offers more optimism at the position than five or six other teams in the league.
Seattle’s receivers and running backs can throw their punches against the rest of the NFL. When’s the last time that a team was above .500 when the best player on offense was a wide receiver or two? The 49ers reached the NFC Championship with a bad quarterback and Deebo Samuel last year. They also had Trent Williams, George Kittle, and a defense with arguably two players (Fred Warner, Nick Bosa) who are the best at their positions.
Can the Seahawks say that about their defense?
Bob-bye Wagner and co.
Not that long ago, the Seahawks defense had even more potential first team All-Pro players than what the 49ers had last season: Bobby Wagner as the best inside linebacker, Earl Thomas as the best free safety, Kam Chancellor as the best strong safety, and Richard Sherman as the best cornerback. Those are all easy cases to make.
In the running would be Michael Bennett as a do-everything edge, Cliff Avril as a quarterback’s worst nightmare, K.J. Wright as Mr. Clean-Up, and a defensive tackle rotation that was deeper than Brandon Mebane’s belly. Even Seattle’s “fringe great players” included Byron Maxwell, Brandon Browner, Red Bryant, and a right-place, right-time Super Bowl MVP.
That’s 11 players and I didn’t even name everybody I could have named.
The Seahawks went 7-10 last season and then they parted with their best offensive and best defensive players of the last 10 years. To not expect them to be worse than 7-10 is to not expect the sun to rise tomorrow. Please, Seattle, go ahead and defy expectations if you must—it’s not impossible—but what’s the logical take here supposed to be?
EDGE
Along the edges, the pass rushers, the Seahawks are putting their faith in the hands of Shelby Harris, Alton Robinson, and L.J. Collier on the line, plus Nwosu and Darrell Taylor at linebacker.
The Rams have Aaron Donald. The 49ers have Nick Bosa. And even if I’m not going to be especially high on J.J. Watt anymore, the Cardinals have J.J. Watt.
L.A.’s defensive end group also includes A’Shawn Robinson, the outside linebackers are Leonard Floyd and a couple of young prospects out of recent draft classes. The 49ers have Dee Ford, Samson Ebukam, Dre Greenlaw. The Cardinals, again, aren’t especially terrifying. But coming off of an 11-6 season and losing Chandler Jones, Arizona still has Watt, Markus Golden, Zach Allen, and Devon Kennard. It’s no worse than comparable to Seattle’s situation.
Evidence that the Seahawks have a great pass rusher on the roster, whether it be Nwosu or Taylor or other, still needs to be created. We need to see proof of concept, which is not the case for Bosa or Donald in the NFC West; not the case for Cam Jordan, Brian Burns, Danielle Hunter, Rashan Gary, Shaq Barrett, Chase Young, etc. when looking around the conference.
IDL
At defensive tackle, I think most Seattle fans enjoy the group of Al Woods, Poona Ford, and Quinton Jefferson. It’s familiar, it’s fun, it’s a hangout of fan favorites.
It’s not up the standard that the Rams get from Donald and Greg Gaines. It’s not up there with Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead in San Francisco. It’s not Vita Vea, Derrick Brown, Kenny Clark, Jonathan Allen, Fletcher Cox, or Leonard Williams.
There’s a reason that so many Seahawks fans are thinking, “Just go draft Jordan Davis then” even knowing that one thing not lacking on the roster right now is depth at the position. There’s depth. There’s not an interior pass rusher star on the surface like so many other contending teams (Chris Jones in KC, Ed Oliver in Buffalo, Vea in TB) seem to have right now.
LB
Maybe instead your hope lies with Jordyn Brooks, one of the few first round picks on Seattle’s roster. Brooks is a fine starter, he’s not been the same as Wagner or Warner. High expectations? Yes. And that’s what the Seahawks need: players who give you high expectations.
The move to a 3-4 also means that Brooks is one of only two inside linebackers. The Cardinals have drafted inside linebackers in each of the last two first rounds. The Rams found a really good third round pick last year in Ernest Jones. The 49ers have Warner and Azeez Al-Shaair.
Do the Seahawks have anyone who could ever be at the level of Micah Parsons in Dallas, Roquan Smith in Chicago, or Lavonte David and Devin White in Tampa Bay? Deion Jones in Atlanta? Eric Kendricks in Minnesota?
That’s setting aside that right now Seattle is relying on Cody Barton to be a breakout starter for them in 2022. Based on two games at the end of his third season.
CB
And the days of Sherman, Browner, and Maxwell seem so long ago. Pete Carroll’s penchant for finding and creating great cornerbacks hasn’t come to light recently, even though D.J. Reed was much better than anyone could have ever guessed. The Seahawks are now left with Sidney Jones, Artie Burns, Ugo Amadi, Tre Brown, and Justin Coleman at cornerback.
The Rams have Jalen Ramsey and the 49ers are high on free agent signee Charvarius Ward, the third-biggest cornerback signing of 2022 free agency after J.C. Jackson and Carlton Davis. The Cardinals are happy to see that Byron Murphy has ascended to another level and will be an extension candidate this year.
I have no reservations in stating that the Seahawks have the worst cornerbacks situation in the NFC today. The Vikings might be the only other contender. Every other team either has an obvious better cornerback on the roster than anyone in Seattle, or a recently-acquired corner that at least offers the athleticism, size, and upside expected for a starting corner. Disagree? Tell me who I’m forgetting.
The AFC has some teams that have a similar lack in talent at cornerback, but the Seahawks don’t need to win in the AFC. They stack up 15th or 16th at corner in their own conference, which is another reason to think Derek Stingley and Sauce Gardner are in play for Seattle’s first pick.
The Seahawks have good safeties!!!!
Something I’ve learned in the past couple of years is that most people misinterpret “reality” for “negativity.” Have people become so conditioned to avoid criticism that they block out anything that doesn’t start and end with “Winning”?
I’ve never written about the Seahawks with the intention to make them seem better than they actually are.
I’ve only ever written about the Seahawks with the intention to deliver information about the team, and to do it in some way that set me apart from so many others who do the same.
For almost 10 years, information about the Seahawks was almost always, “Wow! They’re good!” That wasn’t up to me, or you, or even Pete Carroll. We were all benefactors of fortunate circumstances.
Today, the information about the Seahawks still starts with “Wow!” It doesn’t end the same this time. That’s something Seattle’s fans should be prepared for and to expect a lot more of in the future.
No man delights in the bearer of bad news. As they say in Rome, don’t pickle the Amalekite.
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No worries...I come to praise Ceasar not to bury him. I'm pretty sure most of us believe the Hawks are going to suck next year. I've never been a believer in Lock. I am hoping to see us field a good defense. If we can be competitive and throw in some hope for a brighter future (and the trolls from Niners Nation stay away), I'll be ok!
Well it is a dire picture you paint, but I am not Vlad Putin, I want the real low down. Without resigning Duane Brown, the Seahawks offense will be tragic. I feel sorry for Drew Lock.
On defense I guess Seattle has shown their hand by not resigning Reed. I hope it's Sauce Gardner we take at nine. Is there a left tackle at 40 or 41 who could start and thrive it's unlikely.
I believe we can pick up some help for our Rush. What's happened with Rashaad Green has he priced himself out of the entire NFL. It would be a shame we chose a 20 year old so he would be good at 24 or 25 and didn't follow through.
My honest fear is or maybe was that Carroll would do such a good job of coaching we would win 6 or 7. Without depth at tackle it can't be done. Clint Hurt will put a good defense on the field and hopefully we will be in a lot of close ones.
This rebuild has started and we are meant to be strong by 2023 with a stud rookie QB. I don't believe John and Pete would have gutted the team traded Wilson and cut Wagner if Jodi didn't give them two full seasons. Victoria Chris Ps sign DK before training camp even if the deal is a little rich. It will prove to the NFL you have not given up, and it will help recruit free agents for 2023.