Great article! The Panthers went to the SB with Newton. Allen should have! So plenty of precedence settinng up stage for Richardson to be drafted high and succeed.
I feel like Richardson may have the opposite problem of Newton. In the few videos I watched (JT Sullivan and etc), it seems like Richardson struggled with the intermediate but stood out with the deep balls. Again, I know very little about this subject.
I just know that I dont like his and R Wilson’s brand of football - up and down and not a rhythmic passer like Geno Smith who can access the entire field. Just a matter of taste.
Also, Hawks would have to overhaul the offensive coaching staff if they draft him. Thats a lot of the organizational upheaval.
Just hope that someone will trade up with us to get him. This draft looks absymal at the top.
Accuracy is only partially described by completion percentage. Two other stats have to be added in -YAC and average depth of target. If the average depth of target is 8 plus yards 60 % is great, If the average depth is 5 yards and the YAC 2 yards 60% gets one cut.
Great article. That's why I hope the Hawks don't waste a pick on Richardson! I mean, really, a top 10 pick for a Qb. that did absolutely nothing in college!
The pro Richardson crowd always points out his great athleticism. Ok, then why not draft a world class Decathlon guy who's great throwing the javelin? He'll, with enough time and great coaching...
LA Rams' Jalen Ramsey to Miami for TE and a 3rd-round pick...
Now, for two games a year at least, DK's path to the end-zone will have less of an obstacle in the way. Perhaps it is not as crucial to have QB accuracy - well, maybe a baby bit so...
If he can get up to a consistent 62-64% range that'd be on par with, as stated above, prime Cam - but also right on the numbers for NFL Lamar Jackson (career avg 63.7%). He's got the athletic skill to be as effective a runner as both. That few % rise would turn AR from bust into MVP candidate, that's how tight some of these margins are. And Lamar also came out of College with a 57% completion rate. This is why despite the concern over his accuracy, a team will still go for him in the 1st. Your upside if you improve AR by just 5-10% is an MVP candidate and uber-marketable player, ideal for your franchise both on and off the field.
While Richardson may never improve his accuracy enough to become a successful NFL franchise QB, he is still the best runner in this draft. He's super impressive as a runner, and if he is willing to take on the Tasom Hill role, he could be quite valuable without ever improving as a passer. How that figures into the equation I don't know, but it could tip the scale.
I think your analysis is spot on. We don't know if a quarterback's accuracy will improve. Or his processing speed. Or any other measurable, really. More generally, we don't know which draft prospects at any position will get better and which will not.
Very few come to the league ready to dominate. I think back to Cortez Kennedy and how he struggled when he first hit the league. Went from dominance in college to struggling against veteran but average NFL players. As a young fan, I couldn't help but wonder if he would bust, though Bill Walsh accurately assessed that he needed more technique and that he'd get there.
Part of my concern was that he didn't seem to be particularly coachable. When asked about his struggles, he'd respond curtly to reporters, saying things like, "I got moves".
My point isn't a walk down memory lane so much as to say it isn't predictable, really with anyone, whether they'll be ready for the NFL or how long it will take to get there or whether they'll get there at all. That's why the draft is so risky. That's why there are so many disappointments and a significant number of total busts.
All of that said, if I were a GM, I'd be a lot more comfortable taking a chance on Young than Richardson. Stroud has at least shown a bit of what he can do at the college level. Maybe it was just one game and not even a W but, hey, he looked great in one game. Richardson has never shown accuracy in college. So, yes, no reason to presume he'll develop it.
Hey, another note: I told Substack that I kept having issues when leaving a comment because they put a "CANCEL" button directly to the left of the "POST" button and that was super annoying. I would write a comment and then sometimes cancel the whole thing out. Today, there's no more cancel button! Just a reminder that if you're having issues with Substack, let them know! They're a small company, they might just listen and act.
I want to emphasize that in no way is this post meant to disregard any potential future for Anthony Richardson. I do think that just like franchise's have to have limits with regards to free agent contracts and extensions, like "We will never go past this number", they also have to have limits on how high a prospect will be drafted. "We will never use a pick in this range on that prospect." So no matter how teams will end up valuing the "top-4" QBs in this class, the Seahawks have to have their limits and say, "Well, we would love AR if he was available (here)" and then be comfortable with that number, even if there was a run on quarterbacks in the top-4, right? The Seahawks are never the organization that's going to panic, which is why they only trade up in rare moments on day 2 and day 3. This was the franchise that desperately wanted DK and Russ and didn't trade up for either when they kept falling. The Seahawks are the organization that could actually love Hendon Hooker or someone else and think that's fine for them. I do think that as a prospect, AR's limitations are 3 years of college development are noteworthy and a part of his resume. You have to look at the whole picture, not just the side of the picture that's ridiculously tantalizing. Whether he's someone I'd think worthy of the 5th overall pick is meaningless really, but in my opinion, other QB prospects taken in the past in the top-10 have had better resumes. You can find outliers anywhere when you're looking for them, like Trey Lance, but I'm still going to comfortably say that AR doesn't have a typical top-10 resume.
You say this all so well. I feel similarly, as I'm sure most of us do. If you took a poll, I'm guessing the vast majority would say don't take him at #5. Probably about half would feel comfortable taking a shot at #20, a higher percentage in round two, and most everyone would say he's worth a day three pick. It's risk versus reward.
Unfortunately, teams tend to fall in love with measurables (though not so much with DK's) so he's not likely to slip far enough to make the pick worthwhile. It wouldn't shock me if some team gave up way too much for our #5. If Carter or Anderson were on the board and some team offered a mid-round first plus next year's first as well, that would be a tough call. Anderson because, as you've pointed out, he's such a Pete Carroll kind of kid and Carter because of the sheer talent alone.
My comp for Richardson is Colin Kaepernick, who I’ll go to my grave thinking was under appreciated. At the end, people said that he couldn’t do this and couldn’t do that, but something he could do was take over a game. Would you rather have that or Kirk Cousins? Anyway, Richardson strikes me as having the same potential, and that’s nothing to dismiss.
I’ve not been big on AR15 all along but that headline quote particularly scares me. It seems correct. I’m trying to think of who outside of Josh Allen improved on their accuracy. At least without a lot of throws behind the line of scrimmage and short passes to running backs.I’m of the mind that top 5 pick needs to be a sure thing, if not a day one starter.
Has Allen really improved his accuracy to a noteworthy degree? He had one outlier year in 2020 where he hit 70% of his passes and his best the other 4 years has been 63%. If Allen weren't a good runner I'm not sure he's any better than Jameis Winston.
I have seen Allen play a lot and particularly this past season there were a lot of moments where I'd ask myself "who was he throwing to"? I think we've seen the best from Allen and it's only downhill from here.
I'd call Will Anderson, Bijan, and even Meyer damn near sure things. Rarely is a quarterback one, outside of those once a decade guys like Peyton, Luck, etc. But even Luck couldn't stay healthy even though his playing style was part of the reason. There are tons of highly touted players who have busted. I'd have to look back at old drafts and think on that one.
I feel reasonably confident that Luck's issue was he went vegan and he wasn't supplying his body with high quality protein so his body could repair itself.
Around 2015 veganism became a rage in the NFL with high profile players like Cam Newton and David Johnson adopting the diet. Both players experienced significant decline in their play (Newton seemed to actually go bonkers). The funny thing is that it was prompted by the mistaken belief that Brady is a vegan... he's not, he eats lean meats and fish.
Anyhow, not to sidetrack the thread or your point. In my eyes the first round is for drafting as sure a thing as possible, if there is such a thing.
I would not be surprised. Even the barista at the coffee shop who's vegan has to supplement their diets with long chain omega 3s, calcium and so forth. I can't see that working for an NFL athlete at all.
Nor I. That's a risk I'd love to take though there's risk just the same. Who knows if Anderson will hold up under the stress and strain of NFL play. He's a lot less sturdy than Russ. Now if you put Anderson inside Richardson's body, you'd have a true generational prospect. That's the way folks spoke of John Elway in "83. The kind of guy who comes along once every generation or so.
At the individual level, NFL coaching can help a college player optimize his talent and improve what he already does well. The QB whose accuracy most likely to benefit from an NFL QB coach is C.J. Stroud, not Anthony Richardson. Even if Stroud’s arm strength is suspect (as Brock Huard says), he’s tantalizing because his touch is so good that he could develop into a 70% passer. But Richardson? He has youth and extreme physical ability going for him, but is that enough to turn a 54% college passer into an NFL average accuracy?
Pro coaching can make an inaccurate passer less inaccurate. But at some point, biology takes over. Maybe the guy simply can’t his feet set quickly enough, or maybe doing that throws off his balance for a split second--which is an eon in today’s NFL. (Take a look at the first link below and see what Troy Aikmann considers overrunning. It’s not much more than a lean, and Marshawn is gone.) In the second link, Wilson leads Lockett by 20-25 yards on a sideline bomb. That’s not something he learned to do after getting, but it is something he learned to better.
I’m not saying that Anthony Richardson is a lost cause. But a team that drafts him should focus his development on what he already does well and try to put him in position where he can use his speed and strength to take over a game.
I don't think it's smart to presume Richardson can't improve. I don't think that's what Kenneth is saying. Just that we shouldn't presume he'll get better.
The guy is prototypical super high ceiling, super low floor. Could wind up in the pro bowl or even the Hall, but it's more likely he'll never be more than mediocre and it's perfectly possible he'll bust.
The question what do you want to bet on. I doubt that Richardson will ever have more than average accuracy, if that. He could still be formidable because he’s so big and fast (reputedly bigger and faster than Derrick Henry). To me, it’s coach him up as best you can, but build around his strengths.
The dilemma is that you then lose his ability to heave the ball 65 yards on the fly. If you draft Richardson, you have to develop an offensive game plan that puts the ball in his hands but that doesn’t assume that he can excel as a traditionalist pocket passer. It’s tricky, and I don’t claim to have an answer.
Cam was an NFL MVP. It is fair to call his value “inconsistent” especially after his injuries. That is the upside that is tantalizing to Anthony Richardson fans and some NFL GMs.
I think Seattle with QB coach Greg Olson and Geno locked in as starter might be exactly the type of situation Steve Smith was talking about when he says Richardson would benefit from coaching and patience.
I'll never forget the picture of him when Von Miller destroyed his SB Dreams. I really believe that on the biggest stage you can't just bei athletic or mostly accurate. You have to deliver perfect strikes and make great decisions (See Mahomes, Brady). Don't know If you can learn this If you don't have it. Just my Personal opinion but that is exactly why i don't believe Josh Allen will ever be as good as Mahomes. Now that Geno is signed i would say If Not for Bryce or CJ the Seahawks should just Draft whoever makes them better THIS season.
Some guys have the tools. Clearly Richardson's one of those guys. Carson Wentz was too and he looked GREAT for half a season. Like future-Hall-of-Fame great. Then he got injured and never again played with the reckless abandon and instinct that made him great. At least not for long because that style of play set him up for the next injury.
When Seattle played Philly in a regular season 2017 game that we won, it seemed a miracle. Russ threw for a ton of yards. Wentz fumbled inside the one yard line. But Wentz also threw a strike while on the run, way down field, with his feet already out from under him. I'd never seen a throw like that. Where a guy has literally no footing and still manages to throw a deep strike.
That same guy couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from the pocket. Go figure.
The ball has to land someplace and there was about as much chance of it landing in the receivers hands as any other particular place. Wentz got lucky but couldn't throw that pass two times out of three.
I don't see why you couldn't get taller; just have your leg bones replaced with those of a very tall death row inmate.
Great article! The Panthers went to the SB with Newton. Allen should have! So plenty of precedence settinng up stage for Richardson to be drafted high and succeed.
I feel like Richardson may have the opposite problem of Newton. In the few videos I watched (JT Sullivan and etc), it seems like Richardson struggled with the intermediate but stood out with the deep balls. Again, I know very little about this subject.
I just know that I dont like his and R Wilson’s brand of football - up and down and not a rhythmic passer like Geno Smith who can access the entire field. Just a matter of taste.
Also, Hawks would have to overhaul the offensive coaching staff if they draft him. Thats a lot of the organizational upheaval.
Just hope that someone will trade up with us to get him. This draft looks absymal at the top.
Accuracy is only partially described by completion percentage. Two other stats have to be added in -YAC and average depth of target. If the average depth of target is 8 plus yards 60 % is great, If the average depth is 5 yards and the YAC 2 yards 60% gets one cut.
Great article. That's why I hope the Hawks don't waste a pick on Richardson! I mean, really, a top 10 pick for a Qb. that did absolutely nothing in college!
The pro Richardson crowd always points out his great athleticism. Ok, then why not draft a world class Decathlon guy who's great throwing the javelin? He'll, with enough time and great coaching...
.who knows!
LA Rams' Jalen Ramsey to Miami for TE and a 3rd-round pick...
Now, for two games a year at least, DK's path to the end-zone will have less of an obstacle in the way. Perhaps it is not as crucial to have QB accuracy - well, maybe a baby bit so...
If he can get up to a consistent 62-64% range that'd be on par with, as stated above, prime Cam - but also right on the numbers for NFL Lamar Jackson (career avg 63.7%). He's got the athletic skill to be as effective a runner as both. That few % rise would turn AR from bust into MVP candidate, that's how tight some of these margins are. And Lamar also came out of College with a 57% completion rate. This is why despite the concern over his accuracy, a team will still go for him in the 1st. Your upside if you improve AR by just 5-10% is an MVP candidate and uber-marketable player, ideal for your franchise both on and off the field.
Yes, and Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and free lunches are real!
While Richardson may never improve his accuracy enough to become a successful NFL franchise QB, he is still the best runner in this draft. He's super impressive as a runner, and if he is willing to take on the Tasom Hill role, he could be quite valuable without ever improving as a passer. How that figures into the equation I don't know, but it could tip the scale.
In the immortal words of the late, great Mike Leach, "if you have a running QB, you better have three."
I think your analysis is spot on. We don't know if a quarterback's accuracy will improve. Or his processing speed. Or any other measurable, really. More generally, we don't know which draft prospects at any position will get better and which will not.
Very few come to the league ready to dominate. I think back to Cortez Kennedy and how he struggled when he first hit the league. Went from dominance in college to struggling against veteran but average NFL players. As a young fan, I couldn't help but wonder if he would bust, though Bill Walsh accurately assessed that he needed more technique and that he'd get there.
Part of my concern was that he didn't seem to be particularly coachable. When asked about his struggles, he'd respond curtly to reporters, saying things like, "I got moves".
My point isn't a walk down memory lane so much as to say it isn't predictable, really with anyone, whether they'll be ready for the NFL or how long it will take to get there or whether they'll get there at all. That's why the draft is so risky. That's why there are so many disappointments and a significant number of total busts.
All of that said, if I were a GM, I'd be a lot more comfortable taking a chance on Young than Richardson. Stroud has at least shown a bit of what he can do at the college level. Maybe it was just one game and not even a W but, hey, he looked great in one game. Richardson has never shown accuracy in college. So, yes, no reason to presume he'll develop it.
Hey, another note: I told Substack that I kept having issues when leaving a comment because they put a "CANCEL" button directly to the left of the "POST" button and that was super annoying. I would write a comment and then sometimes cancel the whole thing out. Today, there's no more cancel button! Just a reminder that if you're having issues with Substack, let them know! They're a small company, they might just listen and act.
I want to emphasize that in no way is this post meant to disregard any potential future for Anthony Richardson. I do think that just like franchise's have to have limits with regards to free agent contracts and extensions, like "We will never go past this number", they also have to have limits on how high a prospect will be drafted. "We will never use a pick in this range on that prospect." So no matter how teams will end up valuing the "top-4" QBs in this class, the Seahawks have to have their limits and say, "Well, we would love AR if he was available (here)" and then be comfortable with that number, even if there was a run on quarterbacks in the top-4, right? The Seahawks are never the organization that's going to panic, which is why they only trade up in rare moments on day 2 and day 3. This was the franchise that desperately wanted DK and Russ and didn't trade up for either when they kept falling. The Seahawks are the organization that could actually love Hendon Hooker or someone else and think that's fine for them. I do think that as a prospect, AR's limitations are 3 years of college development are noteworthy and a part of his resume. You have to look at the whole picture, not just the side of the picture that's ridiculously tantalizing. Whether he's someone I'd think worthy of the 5th overall pick is meaningless really, but in my opinion, other QB prospects taken in the past in the top-10 have had better resumes. You can find outliers anywhere when you're looking for them, like Trey Lance, but I'm still going to comfortably say that AR doesn't have a typical top-10 resume.
You say this all so well. I feel similarly, as I'm sure most of us do. If you took a poll, I'm guessing the vast majority would say don't take him at #5. Probably about half would feel comfortable taking a shot at #20, a higher percentage in round two, and most everyone would say he's worth a day three pick. It's risk versus reward.
Unfortunately, teams tend to fall in love with measurables (though not so much with DK's) so he's not likely to slip far enough to make the pick worthwhile. It wouldn't shock me if some team gave up way too much for our #5. If Carter or Anderson were on the board and some team offered a mid-round first plus next year's first as well, that would be a tough call. Anderson because, as you've pointed out, he's such a Pete Carroll kind of kid and Carter because of the sheer talent alone.
I don't think it would be a tough call. I'd do that trade in a nano-heartbeat.
My comp for Richardson is Colin Kaepernick, who I’ll go to my grave thinking was under appreciated. At the end, people said that he couldn’t do this and couldn’t do that, but something he could do was take over a game. Would you rather have that or Kirk Cousins? Anyway, Richardson strikes me as having the same potential, and that’s nothing to dismiss.
Great! But Kaepernick was a 2nd round pick and Cousin a 4th round pick. If that is what Richardson is, then a 5th overall pick he is not.
I’ve not been big on AR15 all along but that headline quote particularly scares me. It seems correct. I’m trying to think of who outside of Josh Allen improved on their accuracy. At least without a lot of throws behind the line of scrimmage and short passes to running backs.I’m of the mind that top 5 pick needs to be a sure thing, if not a day one starter.
Has Allen really improved his accuracy to a noteworthy degree? He had one outlier year in 2020 where he hit 70% of his passes and his best the other 4 years has been 63%. If Allen weren't a good runner I'm not sure he's any better than Jameis Winston.
I have seen Allen play a lot and particularly this past season there were a lot of moments where I'd ask myself "who was he throwing to"? I think we've seen the best from Allen and it's only downhill from here.
Beware the QB with slow eyes and happy feet!!!
And that would only improving his statistics, not his accuracy.
I should have been more clear. Completion percentage is usually a barometer of accuracy, even though it can get skewed by gimme pass plays like that.
Ideally, but truthfully how many "sure things" are there. Maybe I should rephrase as "How many 'sure things' haven't been so sure?
I'd call Will Anderson, Bijan, and even Meyer damn near sure things. Rarely is a quarterback one, outside of those once a decade guys like Peyton, Luck, etc. But even Luck couldn't stay healthy even though his playing style was part of the reason. There are tons of highly touted players who have busted. I'd have to look back at old drafts and think on that one.
I feel reasonably confident that Luck's issue was he went vegan and he wasn't supplying his body with high quality protein so his body could repair itself.
Around 2015 veganism became a rage in the NFL with high profile players like Cam Newton and David Johnson adopting the diet. Both players experienced significant decline in their play (Newton seemed to actually go bonkers). The funny thing is that it was prompted by the mistaken belief that Brady is a vegan... he's not, he eats lean meats and fish.
Anyhow, not to sidetrack the thread or your point. In my eyes the first round is for drafting as sure a thing as possible, if there is such a thing.
I would not be surprised. Even the barista at the coffee shop who's vegan has to supplement their diets with long chain omega 3s, calcium and so forth. I can't see that working for an NFL athlete at all.
When your right, you're right. Amiright?
Maybe the "too short" QB will fall to #5 because of all the hype around Levi, Richardson, and Stroud (who is the best of that trio).
Wouldn't that be something?
I’m not going to allow myself to even dream about this one!
Nor I. That's a risk I'd love to take though there's risk just the same. Who knows if Anderson will hold up under the stress and strain of NFL play. He's a lot less sturdy than Russ. Now if you put Anderson inside Richardson's body, you'd have a true generational prospect. That's the way folks spoke of John Elway in "83. The kind of guy who comes along once every generation or so.
At the individual level, NFL coaching can help a college player optimize his talent and improve what he already does well. The QB whose accuracy most likely to benefit from an NFL QB coach is C.J. Stroud, not Anthony Richardson. Even if Stroud’s arm strength is suspect (as Brock Huard says), he’s tantalizing because his touch is so good that he could develop into a 70% passer. But Richardson? He has youth and extreme physical ability going for him, but is that enough to turn a 54% college passer into an NFL average accuracy?
Pro coaching can make an inaccurate passer less inaccurate. But at some point, biology takes over. Maybe the guy simply can’t his feet set quickly enough, or maybe doing that throws off his balance for a split second--which is an eon in today’s NFL. (Take a look at the first link below and see what Troy Aikmann considers overrunning. It’s not much more than a lean, and Marshawn is gone.) In the second link, Wilson leads Lockett by 20-25 yards on a sideline bomb. That’s not something he learned to do after getting, but it is something he learned to better.
I’m not saying that Anthony Richardson is a lost cause. But a team that drafts him should focus his development on what he already does well and try to put him in position where he can use his speed and strength to take over a game.
https://youtu.be/bZck-VU8q8k
https://youtu.be/bZck-VU8q8k
I don't think it's smart to presume Richardson can't improve. I don't think that's what Kenneth is saying. Just that we shouldn't presume he'll get better.
The guy is prototypical super high ceiling, super low floor. Could wind up in the pro bowl or even the Hall, but it's more likely he'll never be more than mediocre and it's perfectly possible he'll bust.
The question what do you want to bet on. I doubt that Richardson will ever have more than average accuracy, if that. He could still be formidable because he’s so big and fast (reputedly bigger and faster than Derrick Henry). To me, it’s coach him up as best you can, but build around his strengths.
Turn him into a RB or a WR, but not a high pick.
The dilemma is that you then lose his ability to heave the ball 65 yards on the fly. If you draft Richardson, you have to develop an offensive game plan that puts the ball in his hands but that doesn’t assume that he can excel as a traditionalist pocket passer. It’s tricky, and I don’t claim to have an answer.
Cam was an NFL MVP. It is fair to call his value “inconsistent” especially after his injuries. That is the upside that is tantalizing to Anthony Richardson fans and some NFL GMs.
I think Seattle with QB coach Greg Olson and Geno locked in as starter might be exactly the type of situation Steve Smith was talking about when he says Richardson would benefit from coaching and patience.
I'll never forget the picture of him when Von Miller destroyed his SB Dreams. I really believe that on the biggest stage you can't just bei athletic or mostly accurate. You have to deliver perfect strikes and make great decisions (See Mahomes, Brady). Don't know If you can learn this If you don't have it. Just my Personal opinion but that is exactly why i don't believe Josh Allen will ever be as good as Mahomes. Now that Geno is signed i would say If Not for Bryce or CJ the Seahawks should just Draft whoever makes them better THIS season.
Some guys have the tools. Clearly Richardson's one of those guys. Carson Wentz was too and he looked GREAT for half a season. Like future-Hall-of-Fame great. Then he got injured and never again played with the reckless abandon and instinct that made him great. At least not for long because that style of play set him up for the next injury.
When Seattle played Philly in a regular season 2017 game that we won, it seemed a miracle. Russ threw for a ton of yards. Wentz fumbled inside the one yard line. But Wentz also threw a strike while on the run, way down field, with his feet already out from under him. I'd never seen a throw like that. Where a guy has literally no footing and still manages to throw a deep strike.
That same guy couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from the pocket. Go figure.
The ball has to land someplace and there was about as much chance of it landing in the receivers hands as any other particular place. Wentz got lucky but couldn't throw that pass two times out of three.
He's not much of a QB now but that rookie year, before he was injured . . . well, let's just say I remember things differently than you do.