What needs to be said after Seahawks-Bengals

The conversation Seahawks fans need to have after Week 6: Seaside Joe 1687

In his first meaningful snaps with the Seattle Seahawks, after he had already been with the team for two and a half years, Geno Smith led the offense on a 98-yard touchdown drive against the Los Angeles Rams that culminated in a 23-yard score to DK Metcalf. The Seahawks only faced one third down (third-and-1 run by DeeJay Dallas) and Seattle didn’t have to run a single play in the red zone.

Then on the next drive, Geno went 0-of-3 from LAR 14 and the Seahawks settled for a field goal in the red zone. After the defense got Seattle’s offense the ball back down 23-17 with 2 minutes left, Geno was immediately picked off on a throw to Tyler Lockett to seal a win for the 4-1 Rams.

Perhaps everything that would come to be true of the Geno offense was telegraphed in that very first meaningful appearance: Glimpses of a team that can score points, sustain drives, and keep the game close, but somehow on ensuing drives with the same quarterback and supporting players can’t convert third downs, find the end zone from the red zone, and turns the ball over way too consistently to ever be a REAL threat to playoff caliber teams.

Could the Seahawks trade DK Metcalf? What they could get and when they could do it!

Geno Smith has made 26 starts for the Seattle Seahawks since that relief appearance against the Rams, dating from a 23-20 road loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers on October 17, 2021 to this week’s 17-13 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on October 15, 2023. If he has looked any better, if the offense has been remotely improved in those two years…I just do not see it.

This is it, fans. We’ve seen the pinnacle of the Geno Smith offense. It’s a 31-7 win over a 3-14 Jaguars team. It’s a 48-45 win over a Lions defense that gave up the most yards in the NFL last season. And now we’ve seen the floor.

It’s a 17-13 loss to the Bengals—with six points after the opening drive—and three points with an interception in the last four trips to the red zone.

But I would argue, it’s a floor we’ve seen before.

A pain we’ll see again.

Typically after each game I write the As I Sea It column and cover several different takeaways from the contest. Of course, I could do that again today and write about positives (Tre Brown, second half pass defense, Tyler Lockett, Jake Bobo, Jason Myers) and other negatives besides the play of one player (Jake Curhan, Phil Haynes, penalties-penalties-penalties, play calling), but I don’t want to undermine what I think is the most important point that needs to be made after this loss:

Geno Smith will be benched.

Not today. Not next week. Knowing Pete Carroll, the benching of Geno Smith could take far too long and might come in the form of a 2024 offseason change…because according to everything that Pete has said about Geno, “He can do everything we need him to do”.

No, he can’t. And while we could make a ton of excuses about why Seattle’s offense was so bad against the Bengals TODAY, this is NOT ABOUT ONE GAME. This is as far as Geno will ever go with the Seahawks and we know that because he’s been the same quarterback for 26 starts.

It’s just. Not. Good. Enough.

From Pittsburgh to Cincinnati

Geno Smith’s first first half as a Seahawks starter in 2021 went punt, punt, punt, punt, punt with zero points and 55 yards.

The Seahawks would come back to tie the score, twice, and force OT after being down 14-0 at the half. But consider the opportunity Seattle had to win the upset if not for being so inept in the first half and Geno getting sacked from third-and-2 at the PIT 7 to force a field goal with a red zone opportunity.

Against the Saints the following week, the Seahawks were only in the game because of a rare 84-yard touchdown play opportunity for DK Metcalf on the second drive of the game. Geno’s offense punted on the four other drives of the first half and squandered three opportunities in New Orleans territory, coming away with only three points on those drives and losing 13-10.

Is “the Geno Smith offense” any better off when the quarterback has an entire offseason to prepare as the starter or two whole weeks to prepare for the Bengals, than when he was the backup getting spot starts for Russell Wilson in 2021?

I see no differences!

The Seahawks ranked 28th in red zone efficiency last season—Seattle scored 26 touchdowns on 55 red zone trips (47.3%)—and after Week 6’s loss to the Bengals, they will be trending back towards that mark: The Seahawks dropped from 58.8% red zone prior to Sunday to 50% (11 of 22) after going 1-of-5 in Cincinnati.

An average offense will score touchdowns on about 54% of their red zone trips.

A great offense will score touchdowns on about 68% of their red zone trips.

In Wilson’s final full season as Seattle’s starter, 2020, the Seahawks converted touchdowns on 73.2% of their trips to the red zone and ranked 4th. Then in 2021, the Seahawks scored on 64.6% of their trips and ranked third.

Since Geno Smith took over in Week 1 of last season, the Seahawks have scored touchdowns on fewer than 50% of their 77 trips to the red zone.

How is Seattle’s offense in any better hands right now than when Seahawks fans were terrified and dismayed at the prospect of Geno Smith taking over against the Steelers two years ago?

“So you’re putting the entire loss on Geno Smith?!?!”

NO! I’m not talking about Week 6. I’m talking about 2 years. It is up to everybody on the team to help a quarterback during a game. But it is up to the quarterback to help himself after two years at the helm and—let’s not forget this part—11 SEASONS in the NFL!

The most recent Geno Smith

Geno Smith’s 2022 season+playoffs (Seahawks record: 9-9):

424-607, 69.9%, 4,535, 32 TD, 12 INT, 7.5 Y/A, 49 sacks, 9 fumbles/5 lost

Geno Smith’s last 18 starts (Seahawks record: 10-8):

417/624, 66.8%, 4,399, 28 TD, 13 INT, 7.04 Y/A, 51 sacks, 8 F/5 Lost

Over Geno’s first five starts last season, he completed 75% of his attempts with nine touchdowns, two interceptions, 8.31 Y/A, he had one fumble (not a turnover), and was sacked nine times, so about 2 sacks per game.

I want to emphasize that whether we are looking at his entire first season or just his most recent 18 games that a) Geno’s been about the same the entire time and b) has not been as good as he was in those first five weeks. And even in those first five games, the Seahawks went 2-3 (with wins over non-playoff teams Denver, Detroit, plus losses to non-playoff teams Atlanta, New Orleans) and Seattle couldn’t score a meaningful point against the 49ers.

And I understand that the Seahawks went into last season with a lot of question marks on the roster, giving us expectations that they would be much worse than a 9-8 team that barely made the playoffs, but Seattle has now had two offseasons to improve since going 7-10 in 2021. They’ve had two offseasons to get the right pieces in place and now the defense has allowed just 20 points in the last two games. The offense has two good running backs, four good receivers, and three good tight ends.

I think we could all accept Geno Smith being “fine”—IF he was at least better than he was at the beginning of his tenure.

It’s the fact that he’s “fine” after 26 starts of being “fine” that should tell us everything we need to know about how far the Seahawks will go with him as the quarterback. It’s the reality that Geno is potentially getting less fine—the quarterback has managed 11 touchdowns in his nine most recent starts—that should have fans worried about how many points this offense is going to be able score with the Cardinals, Browns, and Ravens on deck in the next three weeks.

The Seahawks won’t start Drew Lock against Arizona next week. Or the week after that. But at some point even Pete Carroll is going to realize that even if in his eyes that his quarterback isn’t the only problem, he should know that Geno also doesn’t have the answers.

I don’t bring up making a change at quarterback to be controversial or to start a war…it’s just time to do it.

Geno Smith didn’t write back. Maybe it’s because he doesn’t have any new stories to tell.

Could the Seahawks trade DK Metcalf? What they could get and when they could do it!