This week has been the most interesting lead up to a game all season for the Seattle Seahawks, as it bears (but not BEARS, they’re next week) that they get to rekindle an old AFC West rivalry while also hosting the return of the Super Bowl MVP. I can’t really say that I circled “Kenneth Walker game” on Seattle’s schedule when it was announced, but now that it’s here that’s pretty cool.
That excitement has been heightened by the fact that Walker is the biggest threat to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s bid to repeat as Offensive Player of the Year, at least so far. Both players have a long ways to go this season before solidifying their candidacy—but this Sunday night game features the league’s leading rusher and the leading receiver.
All the more intriguing is that both the Seahawks and the Chiefs are presented with defensive matchups that figure to create problems for their offenses.
I’ve come to accept this for the Seahawks. I expect a low-scoring game with few long touchdown drives by either team, if any. Kansas City fans are far less shy about their conviction that the reigning Super Bowl defense is but a mere fly on the shoulder for Walker and company.
I wrote a harmless tweet about Walker’s success on outside tackle runs and Seattle’s success on stopping outside tackle runs — obviously just to promote the newsletter I wrote this week about that very topic — and even framed it with a classic compliment sandwich. This tweet has somehow made its way to Chiefs twitter and now has 250 replies.
“I'm happy for Kenneth Walker III and the success he's having with the Chiefs. However, it's not going to happen against the Seahawks. They have a substantially better run defense than his previous opponents.”
That’s how it started, and I am genuinely happy for Walker. As subscribers to Seaside Joe are well aware, I’ve spent the last four years building a case for Walker as a top-5 running back talent and defending him against criticisms by fans of other teams. This would have included Chiefs fans if Seattle didn’t face them so rarely now.
I would also have to be fair and set expectations for Walker based on each individual defensive matchup, not just foolishly promote that he’s going to have 100 rushing yards every week “because he’s good.”
We know he’s good. He’s always been good. And he has rarely had games like the majority of his first five starts with the Chiefs:
Remarkably, four of Walker’s six best career games in terms of rushing yardage have come this season. Kansas City has only played five games.
I’m not surprised that Walker already has two 170-yard games this season. I’m only surprised he never did it with Seattle. I predicted that he would have at least one 200-yard game by now. He was capable, but the Seahawks didn’t want to build their offense around a single running back and that’s also partly the reason that Walker was able to win Super Bowl MVP.
He was healthy. He was fresh.
Were the Seahawks too cautious? Are the Chiefs too reckless? We will absolutely find out this season.
However, what I am sure of is that Walker isn’t going to rush for 2,261 yards (which is what he’s on pace for at 133 per game) and the Seahawks have a better run defense than the Raiders.
A great running back season — like say 1,800 yards — means that sometimes the player rushes for 170 yards, and other times he rushes for 60 yards. He doesn’t rush for 110 yards in every single game. For example, the recently mentioned Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 1,800 yards in 2021:
3 games of 170+ yards
10 games of 100+ yards
7 games under 90 yards
3 games 60 yards
Coincidentally, one of those bad games for Taylor came against the Seahawks in Week 1. Taylor had 17 carries for 56 yards. Seattle finished the season with the number two run defense by yards per carry, but 17th in yards allowed.
This Seattle run defense is a lot better than that Seattle run defense. Specifically, they are particularly stout against outside runs, which is also where Walker has accumulated 70% of his rushing yards this season. Against the only average run defense, the Dolphins, Walker’s typical production was cut in half.
I predicted that the Seahawks defense could hold the Chiefs to 15 points if Seattle’s offense doesn’t give the ball away in their own territory, as they have many times recently. Well, the Dolphins had held Kansas City to 17 points until a very late touchdown—with a drive that started in Miami territory.
The Dolphins did that. Is it really a stretch the Mike Macdonald, a defensive coordinator who went up against Walker in practice for two years, couldn’t do the same or better?
Look: Sky Walker
Kenneth Walker has 665 rushing yards through his team’s first five games, the seventh-best total in history:
O.J. Simpson and Jim Brown played in different eras, if not different universes. So looking at more recent backs, why didn’t they all rush for 2,000 yards?
Jamal Lewis did rush for over 2,000 yards in 2003. When he faced the Jaguars, the number one run defense by YPC, he had a season-worst 21 carries for 68 yards. In a wild card loss, Lewis had 14 carries for 35 yards against the Titans, the number one run defense by yards allowed.
Great running back, great season, bad games against great defenses.
DeMarco Murray rushed for over 1,800 yards in 2014. In two games against the Eagles, the number five run defense, Murray had 50 carries for 154 yards. In a playoff game against the Lions, the number one run defense, he was held to 3.9 yards per carry 19 attempts.
If football were a science suited for predictability, we wouldn’t watch it. There could be a busted gap that Walker exploits for an 80-yard gain and destroys my whole argument. We have to acknowledge that it’s possible.
But I always lean on defensive advantages when a matchup is this strong on both sides. Super Bowl 48 is the perfect example. I do not bet and I do not encourage you to bet, but apparently Walker’s prop is set at 88.5 rushing yards against the Seahawks.
#1 — Almost 50 yards under his average tells you that Vegas agrees more with me than with Chiefs fans
#2 — That’s at least 30 more yards than I expect
Backs with at least eight carries against the Seahawks have combined for 101 attempts, 344 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 43 yards per game.
While there is no direct comparison here, the closest wide-zone scheme would be the Chargers. They split their backfield between two players and had 84 yards on 19 carries. Maybe this helps explain the 88.5 yards prop.
Walker is better than L.A.’s running backs, but Seattle and L.A. both had to reset after the Seahawks took a 27-6 lead early in the third quarter. Seattle’s defense is less likely to go soft in a game I expect to be as close as this one.
Or maybe Walker will prove me wrong and have 150 yards. In every other game of the season, I hope that he does. In this one, it’s not a bias. I just don’t think the Seahawks will allow it unless someone slips and falls over or something fluky.
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Everybody Hurts … Sometimes
With Seattle, fans saw Walker struggle regularly. This is not to say that it’s his fault, it’s more that he’s a cog in a system and every week he goes against cogs in a different system. The ones best designed to stop him are obviously better at it.
In 2025, these are the best run defenses Walker faced:
Colts (he had 9 carries for 17 yards)
Jaguars (10 for 34)
Saints (16 for 38)
Texans (17 for 66)
Vikings (13 for 56)
Walker against the top-5: 65 carries, 211 yards, 3.25 YPC, 42 YPG
Walker against the rest: 221 carries, 1,129 yards, 5.11 YPC, 75 YPG
This is how football has always worked. The Chiefs don’t get a free pass just because the new guy is the captain and the prom king and the lead in the school play and just really swell. Even Mr. Perfect has a bad day.
Last season, the Seahawks faced multiple elite running backs, and the only player of any kind who almost hit 100 yards against them was Kyren Williams in Week 11. 64 of his 91 yards came on two plays, including this 34-yard run on fourth down.
On the play — which another team would have just kicked the field goal on but L.A. didn’t have a good kicker, for one — it’s certainly well blocked, minus a potential hold by Alaric Jackson, and then Coby Bryant missed a tackle, which he did a lot.
Seattle stuffed Williams at or behind the line of scrimmage 10 times. They let him free two times. That’s a good ratio and this is the worst run defense the Seahawks played against an individual all season long.
Walker is a great player. We are also allowed to think that no matter who we are rooting for that we can have objective beliefs about football that are not rooted in a bias. I happen to believe defense trumps offense in most cases. Sometimes those beliefs happen to favor our teams, and sometimes they don’t, and Seaside Joe has always shared interesting pre-game observations regardless of what side they fall on.
“B-b-but Sam Darnold!!!”
I didn’t read the replies to my tweet very closely, there were just too many of them (I’ve never once in my life replied to — and especially never sought out — tweets by people who cover or root for other teams that I disagree with…that just seems like it’s not for me and not my business) but I could parse out a few themes.
“But the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes” (He’s covered in the original article)
“But the Seahawks haven’t faced an offense as good as this one” (Isn’t that just the inverse of an argument you’re telling me does not matter, i.e. that the Chiefs have only played bad defenses?)
“But Sam Darnold…”
As I ENDED the tweet with, wrapping it up in a bow, the Seahawks face basically the SAME PROBLEM that Kansas City has to deal with:
Seattle has to figure out how they’re going to drive 65+ yards down the field and score a touchdown against a good Chiefs defense when it’s been extraordinarily hard for them to do that all season.
The Seahawks are 29th on third down, 28th in turnovers, and they’re 15th in the red zone.
I would favor an elite receiver over an elite running back, so JSN over Walker, but the caveat is that Smith-Njigba’s value can be negated by Darnold himself if he throws two interceptions. Mahomes is less likely to put the Chiefs in that position, even against the best defense in the NFL.
So yeah, it’s not really a “gotcha!” moment to say that the Seahawks could lose when I write IN MY OWN TWEET that Seattle could still “beat themselves”.
“If the Seahawks don't beat themselves, they should do no worse than keeping Kansas City to under 15 points.”
I did the classic B-Rabbit in 8 Mile. I dissed myself before you could.
Over the last 15 years, I’ve been replied to by literally thousands of opposing fans for something I wrote about their team. Tens of thousands. 99% of them always make the same mistake with me, which is that they think I care if they tell me that the Seahawks will lose.
I’ve predicted way more Seahawks losses than they have. If they think what I wrote about Walker is bad (and it wasn’t bad at all), just imagine if Chiefs fans read my posts on Josh Jobe, Derick Hall, Abe Lucas, and Rashid Shaheed.
This job has never been personal to me. It’s objective and when I see “the thing” before a game that stands out to me, like how the leading rusher’s greatest source of yardage income is going head-to-head with Seattle’s greatest strength, I have to share it.
It just so happens that the Seahawks have been really good nearly 15 years, so most weeks it’s easy to expect relatively more success than other teams.
Then every once in a while Seattle comes across a team that has had more success than the Seahawks (I guess ignoring 6-11 last season), and some of their fans feel like it’s not possible for a writer of the other team to find a fact that doesn’t favor their favorite team and shares it and it’s not personal.
Well, the Chiefs fans can take it that way if they want to. It still produces somewhat of a warm feeling to open twitter and see “wow, 50 new mentions!” even though they’re not meaningful or valuable in anyway. I’d rather have one mention from a Seahawks fan than 50 out of Kansas City.
Because while I may get 250 replies before the game, and 500 replies after the game if I’m wrong, if Seattle’s defense performs as I expect them to, my mentions will go completely silent on Sunday night.
After 35 years of working for KC-based companies, I came to understand that for the most part, Chefs fans are polite and friendly. However they can manufacture a “slight” against their team from praise that is simply not strong enough.
You know, like Seahawks fans.
Gonna be a fun game Sunday. I’m feeling good about it.
Let's all pray for the sweet sound of silence. Silence in Kenneth's replies. Silence in the skies above Arrowhead when we keep them out of the endzone. Silence in the stands as we win by 2+ scores. Silence in the media as they get reminded we are still a genuine Superbowl contender.