Cooper Kupp was his old self again

The Seahawks hope Kupp can rekindle his top-10 WR flame, but did it ever go out?

Last week’s post asking for Seahawks fans to share where they are from and how they started following the team had over 100 great origin stories from those of you in the Seaside Joe community who decided to participate, all of which you can read here. I hope to hear from more of you in the future, you’re always welcome to share your story.

There are way too many comments to re-post them all but this week I want to share a few of them each day leading up to the draft. I’ll post them at the end of each newsletter this week and my apologies if yours doesn’t get shared, it doesn’t mean your story wasn’t good enough. Just not enough space!

The Cooper Kupp section of the newsletter

I’ll take the 2025 version of Cooper Kupp, and ALL that entails, over the 2025 version of DK Metcalf.

Negatives: Kupp is older, Kupp is injury prone, Kupp wasn’t as productive in the last three seasons

Positives: Kupp is a lot cheaper, Kupp doesn’t have a temper/penalties issue, Kupp may have been more productive than most of us assumed

If you take DK’s best six-game stretch in 2024 and compare that to Kupp’s best six-game stretch, the 31-year-old with $17.5 million guaranteed isn’t lagging far behind the 27-year-old who has $60 million guaranteed.

Between Week 9-Week 14, Kupp had 40 catches for 459 yards and 4 TD:

The full season pace for those numbers is 113 catches for 1,301 yards and 11 touchdowns, while averaging 8.2 yards per target and a 71.2% catch rate.

These numbers also came at a time when teammate Puka Nacua was healthy and also commanding a high volume of targets from Matthew Stafford. It wasn’t that the Rams were just feeding Kupp over and over like Aaron Rodgers was doing for Davante Adams on the Jets last season (coincidentally, the Rams have replaced Kupp with Adams, a potential mistake) and inflating his numbers.

Kupp played like a viable number one target in 2024, but that run did come apart at the seams in December and January: Kupp had just 10 catches for 153 yards in his last five games, including the playoffs.

That could have played a part in L.A.’s decision to cut Kupp, although he did finish with 5 catches for 61 yards in a “Snow Bowl” loss to the Eagles in which completions were hard for both teams to come by. Now compare that to DK’s best six games, which coincided with the start of Seattle’s season (and still included two lost fumbles):

Totals: 32 catches, 539 yards, 3 TD, 9.5 Y/T, 56.1% catch rate

By these numbers, DK was more of a “big play threat” (although he still only caught 5 touchdowns all season, compared to 6 TD for Kupp in only 12 games) and Kupp was more reliable. A lot more reliable.

That is a career theme for Kupp, who has a career catch rate of 71.2%, compared to 60.3% for DK Metcalf.

We have already gone in depth on the EXTRAORDINARY GAP in career penalties (if history repeats, Kupp will have about 1-2 five-yard penalties this season and Metcalf will tally 5-6 of the 10 and 15-yard variety, possibly an ejection) and if the two receivers are separated by 10 yards per game next season, those penalties (usually drive killers anyway) add up quickly:

• Metcalf averaged 66 yards per game as a healthy 27-year-old

• Kupp averaged 59 yards per game as a “hobbled” 31-year-old

Yet somehow the best version of Kupp has come out more recently than the best version of Metcalf.

Over his last eight games in 2024, Metcalf had 31 catches for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s 53 yards per game and a full season pace of 66 catches for 901 yards while playing in 85% of the snaps.

Over Kupp’s last eight regular season games, even including a slump, he had 33 catches for 408 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Kupp’s last 90-yard game: December 8, 2024

DK’s last 90-yard game: October 20, 2024

Kupp’s last 100-yard game: November 17, 2024

DK’s last 100-yard game: September 30, 2024

This is simply “production”, it’s not a completely accurate picture of a player’s present day talent and value. As they were for Adams and Rodgers, sometimes numbers can be inflated through situation. That doesn’t seem to be the case for Kupp, who had to play second fiddle to one of the best young players in the NFL, whereas Metcalf was meant to be Geno Smith’s “number one” receiver.

Maybe Ryan Grubb deserves some blame for that — he’s no Sean McVay — but would you have bet $33 million per year that he does? Or $80 million total guaranteed, including $60 million fully guaranteed?

The Seahawks replaced Metcalf’s place in the starting lineup with a receiver who is four years older and has been injured more often than he would like, but he’s also less than half as expensive per year ($15 million AAV) and the financial commitment doesn’t have to extend past 2025. He doesn’t have to be the player he was as the Super Bowl MVP in 2021 to be worth it, he only needs to be as good as he was last season to be worth it.

I’m betting that Cooper Kupp will be worth it.

Seaside Joe Origin Stories

Jayanth: I live in Seattle now, but I come from Hyderabad, India. I remember hearing about the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl because I knew a lot of niner fans who resided in SF at the time, from work. I eventually ended up watching the game where Russ injured his finger, and the team rallying around Geno that season, and that not working out too well. The Russell Wilson return to Seattle, Geno's inspired play that game, the atmosphere, the dynamics of the fans and how welcoming they were made me completely hooked, and I felt like I was a part of the team, more or less.

I didn’t know so many Seahawks fans had converted from being 49ers fans, but there were quite a few comments like this! Welcome to the good side, Jayanth.

Sea Hawk Run!: Grew up in LA. My best friend’s dad was Bill Walsh’s roommate in college. When he became the 49ers HC, our group became Niners fans. Good timing. Those were great teams. Moved to Northern California and it continued. Moved to SW Washington in 97 and I slowly lost interest…

In 2005, Shaun Alexander started the season crazy strong. I checked out Game 4, which they lost, and I was hooked anyway. I had a new team to root for! Again, great timing. I’ve been in Southern Oregon for the past eight years, mid-way between Seattle and SF, and I continue to pull for the team to the north.

I know that game! Right after that loss is when the Seahawks could not be stopped again in 2005, until the refs got their chance.

La’au: Since they started. Was in Woodinville at the time, which wasn’t bigger than maybe five lights. Watched the games on a black and white with bunny ears with my old man and brother in the basement. The old man would get Lisa drunk and we would end up pretending we were Steve Largent throwing each other passes across the room. Until dad got pissed off enough to run us out of the house. Later in life we would scream at Dave Krieg for fumbling again or Cortez swallowing someone.

I love this team. It’s so cool how this team and game can bring back so many memories.

Very cool!

Dewhub: Around 1985 I had an substitute teacher that happen to be Steve Largent's sister. I had also recently seen him play and assumed my team was picked for me.

I have a funny image in my head of your teacher being born and the parents/doctor telling her, “Hey, you just happen to be Steve Largent’s sister!”

Thanks again everyone for sharing!

Seaside Joe 2239