Did enough change to finally beat Rams?

Vision Board: Seahawks-Rams

The Seahawks hired Mike Macdonald with games like this one in mind and it could be more important to beat the Rams than any other team right now. The Rams, not the 49ers, have been the biggest thorn in Seattle’s side since the formation of the NFC West and that’s despite the Seahawks once winning 17 out of 20 games in the series.

• 0-2 against the Rams in the playoffs, including at home in 2020

• 3-11 against Sean McVay when he has Stafford or Goff (0-4 against Stafford)

• 7-14 since 2014

Even when the Rams were terrible, they caused problems for Seattle while the Super Bowl window was still open. The Rams beat the Seahawks at the worst times for Seattle and kept them from winning several division titles in the Legion of Boom era.

Now that Pete Carroll’s fired and Aaron Donald retired, the pressure to end the Rams curse falls on Macdonald and the stakes are high for a midseason game: Winning or losing this one should be the tipping point for what to expect from the Seahawks this season.

Outwit (Coaching): Macdonald’s answer for McVay’s motion

When you’re watching the game on Sunday, keep your eyes on this when the Rams have the ball: Watch the players in motion before the snap and how the Seahawks react to it.

Per Next Gen Stats:

The Rams offense uses motion at the highest rate in the NFL with 84.1% of their snaps including motion. On passing plays, the Rams have the highest drop-off in success rate when not using motion, going from 51.9% when using motion to 37.8% without.

Matchup: The Seahawks defense has allowed both the 5th-highest completion percentage (70.2%) and success rate (48.6%) on passing plays with motion.

McVay might not have a single play call without pre-snap motion.

Macdonald had probably his worst day as the Ravens defensive coordinator in 2023 when Baltimore faced the Rams. The Ravens were saved by an overtime punt return touchdown otherwise McVay was on his way to upsetting the AFC’s best team at home. And we all know how the Seahawks did last season when they faced the same test.

McVay praised Macdonald before the season, telling The Athletic’s Robert Mays that going against Baltimore felt like playing 13 players. Macdonald responded to the compliments with, “It’s a trap”.

We have not seen that version of the Ravens defense yet in Seattle, so it does sort of feel like Macdonald could be right.

Outlast (4th Quarter Hero): Defensive line against Kyren Williams

If the Seahawks are going to win this game, it is probably going to come down to how they play in the fourth quarter and that’s been an issue for Seattle’s run defense. In the fourth quarter of games this season, the Seahawks have allowed 331 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry, and four touchdowns, the most of any quarter.

Kyren Williams is one of the best running backs in the NFL since 2023.

Williams has scored at least 1 scrimmage TD in 10 straight games dating back to last season (longest active streak in NFL and 4th-longest such streak over the last 10 seasons). The Seahawks have allowed 7 rushing TDs since Week 4 (tied for 2nd-most in NFL during that span). -NGS

Macdonald told Seattle Sports on Friday that Williams is someone that they’re going to need to bring down to the ground, not just drip off of on contact.

“This guy is a really good player,” Macdonald said. “He understands how to run their run schemes. He runs tough … it seems like he’s always falling forward, so that’s gonna be a point emphasis to try to limit the yards after contact.”

The defensive line might actually be doing the most things correct in run defense, but I could not quite throw any linebackers under the bus because Ernest Jones is questionable to play so I don’t know who they’ll be. The entire defense needs to do their part because if the Seahawks need a late stop in order to win the game, that’s not where they want to be against McVay.

Outplay (MVP): Riq Woolen

When looking for cracks that the Seahawks can exploit in this game, I don’t think it’s going to be stopping Kyren or scoring points; Seattle can’t do the first, but I believe they can do the second even without DK Metcalf and Noah Fant. Instead, Seattle’s best hope could be that Matthew Stafford makes several costly mistakes and that players take advantage when he does.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the Rams last week (Nacua is questionable but expected to play) and they were the biggest reasons why L.A. was able to upset the Vikings. Woolen, who had ups and downs in his own return last week, needs to lock down Puka (or Kupp if Puka doesn’t play).

The first time we saw Woolen last week, he was celebrating a pass breakup. A couple of snaps later, he was giving up a touchdown. Then he gave up another.

That’s how Woolen’s career has gone — up and down — but was his game that bad? Keon Coleman’s touchdown catch was defended as well as it could be. Overall, Woolen allowed four catches and 32 yards.

If it is not Woolen making the interception, then let this “MVP” go to the player(s) who take advantage of Stafford’s mistakes because even though he’s a really good quarterback, he plays like he’s contractually obligated to throw one pick per game.

(As a native Angeleno, but still a fan of the team that I like, Seaside Jay won’t be making a pick this week!)

Seaside Joe 2042