My concern with DK is all about the mental side of the game, as pointed out by Rusty. DK has tended to get frustrated if he isn't getting enough throws his way, or frustrated with defenders who bully back, or both. This has often led to DK disappearing from games when he lets that frustration get the best of him.
Now you add a potential third star receiver in JSN, and a new solid running back who may start and excels at catching the ball. Does that lead to more targets for DK? I don't think so...or at least it SHOULDN'T if you're using all your weapons and scheming to win. Will that frustrate him? Based on past performance, it probably will. How will DK handle it if JSN IS a star, and the media want to talk about him instead of DK, and his numbers are potentially better than DK's? Will DK put team first and show mental maturity?
And me personally, I'm fine with our long game (throwing)...I want to see us be able to dink and dunk our way down the field when the opponent/situation requires that offensive approach. Screens and quick slants that get 5 yards, can't easily be stopped, and occassionally lead to big YAC. It's not as much fun as heaving bombs downfield...but it works and sure has pissed me off when other teams have done it to us (and beat us)! Will DK be okay being asked to catch a lot of short slants etc. in that scenario? Or will he be a decoy deep with more throws to JSN, the tight ends, and Charbonnet out of the backfield?
I'm not sold on DK elevating his game to leading the NFL in receiving, particularly with the additions on offense and potential for us to win more games by throwing more inside/short. Maybe it comes down to: Does adding another great receiver mean less focus by defenders on DK and therefore more production? Or does adding another great receiver and a running back who can catch mean less throws to DK and therefore less production? Chicken or egg?
I want nothing but the best for DK...which benefits my team. He's got the potential to lead the league...I think his MENTAL progression is the key to answering Kenneth's question today.
ONE FINAL THOUGHT: None of these concerns apply to Tyler Lockett. Just sayin...
I would need to check the numbers but I think Kupp and Jefferson both have higher % of snaps from the slot or a tight alignment behind the LoS, where it's easier to evade press-man, as well as more screens. They add up to more quick, efficient receptions which I think DK would need to see to get over that 100 yds/game average.
The other factor obviously is the amount of passes the team throws. The off-season additions (and subtractions in some cases) point to a desire to pass more in neutral situations and spend more time in 11 personnel in general. Even if DK doesn't hit that 28-30% target share, if the pie's bigger then the raw volume will be too.
Of course, there's a non-zero chance that his volume is heavily impacted by the Hawks running up massive leads, benching the starters in a bunch of fourth quarter blowouts and in week 18.
Check out the interview with Michael Bumpus on Cigar Thoughts. He’s high on DK and says that Metcalf has added to his skill set every season. Bump looks for a big year for Metcalf in 2023.
Was DK targeted more by Wilson than Geno? It feels like it. Could it be a personality thing where Wilson did everything he could to get DK the ball (he seemed to regularly look for DK - even at times he shouldn’t have), but Geno just doesn’t like/trust him as much, so throws to him less?
DK has never filled me with confidence with his catching, ball protection or YAC. And we haven’t seen much of an improvement in stats as pointed out (thanks Grant) - which is a worry. Maybe Geno feels a bit the same.
Hopefully with our extra weapons this year, DK can find his mojo and more confidence to finally achieve the elusive ‘break out’ we all so desperately want him to have.
Hey Doug, thanks for the effort of looking up the stats. It’s interesting how my perception didn’t really match the stats. Not sure why that would be. Maybe there was just more pass attempts by Wilson to DK that just didn’t work out, or stuck in my mind as bad choices.
In the end, I don’t mind so much, as long as we keep improving as a team and win games.
I had to check my own perceptions lol. It did seem to me that they were trying to force the ball to DK at times especially in the red zone. I don’t know how to look up red zone targets though.
Why not Lockette? He is number one in the NFL at getting separation. He has great hands and speed plus a refined route tree. I know he is underrated by all the talking heads, but believe me when I say that the DCs around the league don't underrate him him. With the addition of Smith -Ngigba, it will make the defense have to account for his home run ability every time he catches the ball, all of which should free Tyler up more as well as DK.
Love the thought experiment, but I like JSN to lead over No-E at this point in his career. Though who knows who opponents focus on of the 3 from game to game. It could be that JSN has pedestrian numbers but is responsible for DK and Tyler busting out. I am ashamed of myself for feeling like JSN is a sure thing, but I kinda do the same way I felt about Bijan being a can't-miss prospect.
In the past the Seahawks had way too many 3'n outs. With a better receiving core, better runningback group as well as with Geno (and the coaching staff) having another year of working together with the O-line, the receivers should All have more receptions split amongst themselves.
That's a great point. Receptions are a function of the number of offensive plays run (duh!) and this Seahawk's team *should* be on the field more on O than D, with more opportunities for everyone.
Can DK get to 1500-1800? When you look at DK's long yardage plays (without doing the film study to prove it) it seems that many come off of slants or sluggo-type routes where DK gets the ball in space. With JSN on the field, and less double coverage towards DK, he should have more opportunities to catch and GO.
My initial thought was that DK would not likely get there based on performance in 2022 where his red zone success was... not great. But with more options on the field he might be able to convert those opportunities at a higher rate.
I don't know what the probelm is but the Seahawks have not had a successful screen game since... Hasselbeck. Not coincentally, that was the last time the Seahawks had a + OL group, and maybe, just maybe the Seahawks now have an OL that can pull it off.
DK is obviously a physical phenom but he may never be a HOF receiver. He always leaves yards on the field. I am not a stats guy but watching him play says a lot to me. He seems too easy to tackle. His hands appear awkward even when he makes the catch. And he does not seem to know how to use his height to his advantage. Just my opinion.
The concerns coming out when Metcalf was drafted were health (literal broken neck, hamstring, a few other nagging things IIRC) and short distance burst. I *think* it was Chris Simms who said that had DK opted to not run the 3 cone at all, he would have been a top 15 pick. But he did, produced poorly, and the rest is history. But you don't need every guy on your team to be nimble and quick to change direction. Only one guy. And we have two. Three if counting tight ends and four if you dare count Eskridge. DK is a phenom for straight line speed, not even considering his massive size. With this corps there is absolutely a way he becomes a HOF receiver. I realize you said "may never be" but that's a wide net that encompasses most everyone playing the game. And truth be told, if I had to wager one way or the other today, I'd take DK not getting a gold jacket. I'm just saying that he might have the best opportunities he's had in his pro career, and this 2023 offense could really be special. In fact, I'll have a huge beef with Waldron and the coaching staff if it isn't.
Though I am also just an opinion haver, I don't think anything you say is wrong. The hope is that since he is only 25 (almost a full year younger than Dee Eskridge) that he will mature and be the best version of himself in the future. If he can be a 1,300-yard receiver as a 23-year-old with flaws, perhaps he can be something even better at 26, 27, and 28.
I’ve never understood why his YAC wasn’t stellar unless it’s because he’s too big to make LBs, DBs and safeties miss tackles with his (lack of)quick step agility. You’d think his ability to run over the latter two defensive positions, or break tackles, would make up the difference. But if he has a weakness I think it’s YAC.
It seems like the Waldron offense has tried to create YAC opportunities for him with WR screens and quick game concepts to get him the ball in space, but these have not been executed well. His average yards per target have dropped from 9.5 to 7.5 (-2) after Waldron came to town, but his yards per reception have also dropped from 15.6 to 12.3 (-3.3). Well yeah, you don't throw the ball as far, so you get less yards, but his receptions and catch percentage are way better now right? Nope, they're just about the same. Do we blame Waldron's scheme and play calling, or DK's lack of quick agility, or both? I hope we see more of these quick-catch-while-stationary-in-space plays going to JSN this year and DK getting targeted down-field more. I think he's more likely to have a Calvin Johnson kind of year if he's catching the ball on the move. Justin Jefferson is just good at everything, and I don't think that's true of DK.
My concern with DK is all about the mental side of the game, as pointed out by Rusty. DK has tended to get frustrated if he isn't getting enough throws his way, or frustrated with defenders who bully back, or both. This has often led to DK disappearing from games when he lets that frustration get the best of him.
Now you add a potential third star receiver in JSN, and a new solid running back who may start and excels at catching the ball. Does that lead to more targets for DK? I don't think so...or at least it SHOULDN'T if you're using all your weapons and scheming to win. Will that frustrate him? Based on past performance, it probably will. How will DK handle it if JSN IS a star, and the media want to talk about him instead of DK, and his numbers are potentially better than DK's? Will DK put team first and show mental maturity?
And me personally, I'm fine with our long game (throwing)...I want to see us be able to dink and dunk our way down the field when the opponent/situation requires that offensive approach. Screens and quick slants that get 5 yards, can't easily be stopped, and occassionally lead to big YAC. It's not as much fun as heaving bombs downfield...but it works and sure has pissed me off when other teams have done it to us (and beat us)! Will DK be okay being asked to catch a lot of short slants etc. in that scenario? Or will he be a decoy deep with more throws to JSN, the tight ends, and Charbonnet out of the backfield?
I'm not sold on DK elevating his game to leading the NFL in receiving, particularly with the additions on offense and potential for us to win more games by throwing more inside/short. Maybe it comes down to: Does adding another great receiver mean less focus by defenders on DK and therefore more production? Or does adding another great receiver and a running back who can catch mean less throws to DK and therefore less production? Chicken or egg?
I want nothing but the best for DK...which benefits my team. He's got the potential to lead the league...I think his MENTAL progression is the key to answering Kenneth's question today.
ONE FINAL THOUGHT: None of these concerns apply to Tyler Lockett. Just sayin...
I would need to check the numbers but I think Kupp and Jefferson both have higher % of snaps from the slot or a tight alignment behind the LoS, where it's easier to evade press-man, as well as more screens. They add up to more quick, efficient receptions which I think DK would need to see to get over that 100 yds/game average.
The other factor obviously is the amount of passes the team throws. The off-season additions (and subtractions in some cases) point to a desire to pass more in neutral situations and spend more time in 11 personnel in general. Even if DK doesn't hit that 28-30% target share, if the pie's bigger then the raw volume will be too.
Of course, there's a non-zero chance that his volume is heavily impacted by the Hawks running up massive leads, benching the starters in a bunch of fourth quarter blowouts and in week 18.
Check out the interview with Michael Bumpus on Cigar Thoughts. He’s high on DK and says that Metcalf has added to his skill set every season. Bump looks for a big year for Metcalf in 2023.
Was DK targeted more by Wilson than Geno? It feels like it. Could it be a personality thing where Wilson did everything he could to get DK the ball (he seemed to regularly look for DK - even at times he shouldn’t have), but Geno just doesn’t like/trust him as much, so throws to him less?
DK has never filled me with confidence with his catching, ball protection or YAC. And we haven’t seen much of an improvement in stats as pointed out (thanks Grant) - which is a worry. Maybe Geno feels a bit the same.
Hopefully with our extra weapons this year, DK can find his mojo and more confidence to finally achieve the elusive ‘break out’ we all so desperately want him to have.
Per PFR, DK had 141 targets last year vs 129 by Wilson in 2021.
DK's "Yards Before Catch per Reception" was actually a little higher with Geno passing the ball, 9.2 yards last year/8.5 by Wilson in 21.
DK's average YAC yards were fully 2 yards lower last year though (2.2) vs 4.4 to 4.7 his first three years.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MetcDK00.htm#all_detailed_receiving_and_rushing
Hey Doug, thanks for the effort of looking up the stats. It’s interesting how my perception didn’t really match the stats. Not sure why that would be. Maybe there was just more pass attempts by Wilson to DK that just didn’t work out, or stuck in my mind as bad choices.
In the end, I don’t mind so much, as long as we keep improving as a team and win games.
I had to check my own perceptions lol. It did seem to me that they were trying to force the ball to DK at times especially in the red zone. I don’t know how to look up red zone targets though.
If DK is gonna make that leap, he’s gonna need to do 2 things.
He’ll need to hang onto more passes. A 61% catch rate is just too low.
He’ll also need to not let defenders get into his head. Too many times I see him jawing with opponents, only to have him effectively disappear.
DK has the talent. Hopefully he can pull it all together this season. If he does, it could be special.
Why not Lockette? He is number one in the NFL at getting separation. He has great hands and speed plus a refined route tree. I know he is underrated by all the talking heads, but believe me when I say that the DCs around the league don't underrate him him. With the addition of Smith -Ngigba, it will make the defense have to account for his home run ability every time he catches the ball, all of which should free Tyler up more as well as DK.
Love the thought experiment, but I like JSN to lead over No-E at this point in his career. Though who knows who opponents focus on of the 3 from game to game. It could be that JSN has pedestrian numbers but is responsible for DK and Tyler busting out. I am ashamed of myself for feeling like JSN is a sure thing, but I kinda do the same way I felt about Bijan being a can't-miss prospect.
In the past the Seahawks had way too many 3'n outs. With a better receiving core, better runningback group as well as with Geno (and the coaching staff) having another year of working together with the O-line, the receivers should All have more receptions split amongst themselves.
That's a great point. Receptions are a function of the number of offensive plays run (duh!) and this Seahawk's team *should* be on the field more on O than D, with more opportunities for everyone.
Can DK get to 1500-1800? When you look at DK's long yardage plays (without doing the film study to prove it) it seems that many come off of slants or sluggo-type routes where DK gets the ball in space. With JSN on the field, and less double coverage towards DK, he should have more opportunities to catch and GO.
My initial thought was that DK would not likely get there based on performance in 2022 where his red zone success was... not great. But with more options on the field he might be able to convert those opportunities at a higher rate.
DK catching slants > DK catching screens
I don't know what the probelm is but the Seahawks have not had a successful screen game since... Hasselbeck. Not coincentally, that was the last time the Seahawks had a + OL group, and maybe, just maybe the Seahawks now have an OL that can pull it off.
It sounds like Hasselbeck may be looking for a new job. Maybe we can bring him and KJ Write back as our Screen Game Coordinators.
I'm so excited to see what this offense does, Charley!
Minimum 1500 yards, and this team might still have three guys reach a thousand.
They might! And two of the top RBs in the NFL maybe.
Three 1K yard receivers and two top RB's would push Geno's stats off the charts.
DK is obviously a physical phenom but he may never be a HOF receiver. He always leaves yards on the field. I am not a stats guy but watching him play says a lot to me. He seems too easy to tackle. His hands appear awkward even when he makes the catch. And he does not seem to know how to use his height to his advantage. Just my opinion.
The concerns coming out when Metcalf was drafted were health (literal broken neck, hamstring, a few other nagging things IIRC) and short distance burst. I *think* it was Chris Simms who said that had DK opted to not run the 3 cone at all, he would have been a top 15 pick. But he did, produced poorly, and the rest is history. But you don't need every guy on your team to be nimble and quick to change direction. Only one guy. And we have two. Three if counting tight ends and four if you dare count Eskridge. DK is a phenom for straight line speed, not even considering his massive size. With this corps there is absolutely a way he becomes a HOF receiver. I realize you said "may never be" but that's a wide net that encompasses most everyone playing the game. And truth be told, if I had to wager one way or the other today, I'd take DK not getting a gold jacket. I'm just saying that he might have the best opportunities he's had in his pro career, and this 2023 offense could really be special. In fact, I'll have a huge beef with Waldron and the coaching staff if it isn't.
Though I am also just an opinion haver, I don't think anything you say is wrong. The hope is that since he is only 25 (almost a full year younger than Dee Eskridge) that he will mature and be the best version of himself in the future. If he can be a 1,300-yard receiver as a 23-year-old with flaws, perhaps he can be something even better at 26, 27, and 28.
I’ve never understood why his YAC wasn’t stellar unless it’s because he’s too big to make LBs, DBs and safeties miss tackles with his (lack of)quick step agility. You’d think his ability to run over the latter two defensive positions, or break tackles, would make up the difference. But if he has a weakness I think it’s YAC.
It seems like the Waldron offense has tried to create YAC opportunities for him with WR screens and quick game concepts to get him the ball in space, but these have not been executed well. His average yards per target have dropped from 9.5 to 7.5 (-2) after Waldron came to town, but his yards per reception have also dropped from 15.6 to 12.3 (-3.3). Well yeah, you don't throw the ball as far, so you get less yards, but his receptions and catch percentage are way better now right? Nope, they're just about the same. Do we blame Waldron's scheme and play calling, or DK's lack of quick agility, or both? I hope we see more of these quick-catch-while-stationary-in-space plays going to JSN this year and DK getting targeted down-field more. I think he's more likely to have a Calvin Johnson kind of year if he's catching the ball on the move. Justin Jefferson is just good at everything, and I don't think that's true of DK.
YAC is a great point and something I didn't think to add in as a factor, thanks Robert!